Börsipäev 30. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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WSJ on koostanud päris vahva tabeli selle kohta, kuidas Fed on tegutsenud finantskriiside ajal:
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Yahoo kirjutab, et investorid loodavad FED intresside langetamisele 18-ndal septembril, mis siis kui ei langeta? Vähemalt midagi kindlat FED küll ei lubanud- Fed policymakers are "prepared to act as needed"
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Intressimäärade langetamisele on viimasel ajal jah väga palju tähelepanu pööratud - räägitud isegi istungi-eelsest langetamisest. Kui eile päeva teisel poolel jõudis turgudele Bernanke 27. augusti senaator Schumerile kirjutatud kirja sisu, kus oli öeldud, et Föderaalreserv jälgib tihedalt finantsturgudel toimuvat ja tegutseb, kui selleks on vajadus, said aktsiaturud sellest indu veelgi juurde. Viide, et turgudele tagatakse piisav likviidsus, võib siiski tähendada üksnes lisaraha pumpamist repode läbi, kui olukord seda vähegi võimaldab.
Paar päeva tagasi tõin inflatsiooniohu demonstreerimiseks välja nisuhinna graafiku ning hetkel $74 juurde tagasi roninud nafta väärib samuti tähelepanu. Mõlemat hinnatõusu saab tarbija enda rahakotil vägagi reaalselt tundma (või võtavad löögi osaliselt endale ettevõtted, langetades marginaale). Eks Föderaalreserv hoia neilgi trendidel silma peal. Kuid täna, nagu eile kirjutasin, on tulemas olulist makromajanduse statistikat (SKP ja inflatsiooni näitav ahel-deflaator), mis ka tänast kauplemist mõjutab. -
Ilmselt tekitab see natukene täna Motorolas (MOT) huvi: Lehman upgrades Motorola to Overweight from Equal Weight saying it expects rising production in the third quarter to signal a recovery in the the group's phone unit
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Järg on jõudnud Lehmani kätte ning lõigutakse oma "sõprade" prognoose. Ma ei tea, mida see analüüs täpselt sisaldab, kuid Briefing toob välja lühida kommentaari: Lehman cuts their Q3 and Q4 ests and 2008 ests on Morgan Stanley (MS), Merrill (MER), Goldman (GS), and Bear Stearns (BSC). The firm cites dislocation in credit and mortgage markets.
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Iraan on suurendamas oma koostööd ÜROga ning Rahvusvaheline Aatomi Energia Agentuur on esinenud arvamusega, et vajalikku uraanimaaki on rikastatud kogustes, millest piisab üksnes tuumajaama käigushoidmiseks, mitte tuumapommi ehitamiseks. IAEA sõnul võib Iraan tuumapommi ehitamise süüdistustest vabaneda ehk isegi selle aasta lõpuks. Arvestades, et riigis napib rafineerimisvõimsust ning elanikele on kehtestatud bensiini kasutamisel 100-liitrit/kuus normid, on sealsete elanike sooviks kahtlemata, et detsembris kehtestatud sanktsioonid töödeldud nafta produktide impordi osas tühistataks.
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Notable Calls on tulnud välja huvitava ostu-calliga CWTR osas.
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/ -
Eilse USA ralli järel on Aasia tugevas plussis ning rohelised olid ka enamus Euroopa indekseid. Siiski päeva edenedes on plussi käest ära antud - üks neist põhjustest ka USA futuuride -0.5%line negatiivsus ning Oliveri poolt mainitud downgrade Lehmanni poolt mitmele broker 'ile. Euroopa turgudel suurimad plussid Belgia, Soome, Norra, Sloveenia turgudel.
Saksamaa DAX -0.18%
Prantsusmaa CAC +1.10%
Inglismaa FTSE +0.41%
Hispaania IBEX +0.13%
Venemaa RTS +0.78%
Poola WIG -0.67%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.88%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.13%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.65%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.92%
Tai Set +0.01%
India Sensex +0.86%
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Times of London reports profits at the big investment banks of Wall Street and the City of London will collapse by 70% in the second half if the credit crunch proves as fierce as in 1998, Standard & Poor's said yesterday. The debt rating agency predicted that revenues would collapse by 47% in the second half if the dislocation followed a similar pattern to the dark year when Russia defaulted and the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management collapsed. "There's a strong sense of deja vu about the environment for securities firms," Nick Hill, analyst with S&P, said. "This time, rather than a sovereign debt default by Russia, it is rising delinquencies on US sub-prime mortgages that have sparked volatility."
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Väga suuri üllatusi numbritelt pole:
Personal Consumption 1.4% vs. +1.5% consensus
Chain Deflator-prel 2.7% vs +2.7% consensus
Core PCE 1.3% q/q vs. +1.4% consensus
GDP-prelim 4.0% vs +4.1% consensus; Advanced GDP was 3.4%
Initial Claims 334K vs 320K consensus -
Oliver, CWTRi osas üsna tõenäoline stsenaarium. Aasta alguse paiku läks samamoodi. Risk-reward suhe tõesti hea. Olin ise ka short juuli keskpaigast.
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jyriado, CWTR ootused on kindlasti madalale tiritud. Tasub isegi siia juurde vaadata infot, mida on pakkunud CHS ja RL ning üldse kogu jaemüügisektor. CWTR ei ole ei odav ega ka kallis, kuid murepilved firma kohal peegelduvad juba päris suures languses. Uus kollektsioon meenutab natukene situatsiooni, milles on BEBE, kuid vahe on selles, et nende kollektsioon on turustamisele tunduvalt lähemal, mis teebki võibla ettevõtte võrreldes teiste jaemüüjatega natukene erinevaks. Probleemid ei ole firmapõhised vaid pigem makropildist sõltuvad...
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Aga kuna chartist juba juttu tegid, siis panen selle ka siia üles. Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $14.83 tasemel ehk 14.7% madalamal eilse sulgumisega võrreldes.
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Merrill alandab Wal-Marti reitingu "müü" peale varasemalt "neutraalselt."
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Keep Emotions in Check
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/30/2007 8:02 AM EDT
Dispassionate objectivity is itself a passion, for the real and for the truth.
-- Abraham Maslow
One of the most dangerous things about the big swings that the market has been seeing lately is that it causes quick shifts in emotions. When we have a big down day, like we did on Tuesday, when the action is simply horrible, you can't help but feel that we are in for a long and brutal downtrend. Then when we have a powerful bounce, like we did yesterday, you suddenly feel optimistic again and wonder how you could have been so negative and gloomy when obviously things really aren't that bad.
That roller coaster of emotions is particularly dangerous if you find yourself chasing strength and selling weakness, but when we have the DJIA moving 250 points at a time, it's very hard to resist the temptation to make some moves. If your time frame is a day, then you can make some money, but if you're trying to develop a coherent market view by focusing on the intraday action you are likely to just end up feeling very confused.
At the heart of this volatility is the fact that the potential problems are well known but the extent of them isn't. That fear of the unknown keeps the selling pressure on. On the other hand, the Fed is apparently close to cutting interest rates, and most everyone anticipates that is going to produce a powerful rally at least in the short term.
While there certainly seems good reason to be very cautious, no one wants to be on the wrong side of the Fed. Hence this dramatic action every time the Fed does or says anything, even if it is pretty much irrelevant, like releasing old minutes or saying it will do the job it's suppose to do.
How do we handle this? It depends a great degree on your style. If you are quick and nimble and have a very short-term time frame, you can play this intraday action, but if you are looking out a week or so, then you need to have a much higher level of caution and not be fooled by big swings.
I suspect that there are many bulls positioning themselves right now to catch a spike on news that the Fed will cut rates. In essence, they are pricing in that news right now. The problem is that we don't know when a cut will occur, and there is the high degree of danger that some more bad news will hit the market before the Fed acts.
So do we bet on the Fed at this point and hope that it comes through before anything else negative occurs? Ben Bernanke is subtly trying to convey the impression that the Fed's job is to not manage the stock market, which indicates that we need some further proof of broader economic issues to get the Fed moving.
Keep those emotions in check. Things aren't as bad as they looked on Tuesday nor as good as they looked yesterday.
I'm still leaning slightly long as we start the day, but with a very short time frame. I expect the thin trading we are likely to see into the Labor Day weekend to have a positive bias, but we may have bounced too early, and the bulls may not have the juice to keep this going the rest of the week.
We have slight weakness in the early indications, although overseas markets were mostly positive.
None.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SIGM +18.5%, VIP +7.1%, FCEL +5.4% (also announced Ford will purchase a fuel cell for on of its facilities), CIEN +3.8%, TIF +2.1%, NOVL +2.1%... Other news: AGIX +12.0% (seeing continued strength after yesterday's +55% move, which followed co's announcement that AGI-1067 data was accepted for presentation), SSTR +11.4% (to present at the annual Roth Capital Partners New York Stock Conference to be held on Sept 5 & 6 to highlight the "dramatic growth" in its Q4 - co traded up 40%+ yesterday after issuing guidance), TLAB +4.8% (Lightreading.com reports that TLAB's interest in acquiring Carrier Access (CACS) has cooled), GMO +4.7% (announces completion of Mt. Hope Bankable feasibility study), VSE +3.8%, (Lehman upgraded Ethanol Sector, including VSE & AVR), TASR +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Merriman), CHINA +2.9% (China.com and Google expand partnership).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: CWTR -13.7% (downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray this morning as well), CHS -7.3%, HRB -4.7%, SHLD -3.5%, PSS -3.4%... Lehman cuts their estimates on brokers and asset managers: BSC -2.2%, MS -2.1%, MER -2.1%, GS -1.8%, LEH -2.6% (trading down with the group)... Other news: KG -8.7% (KG and PTN delay immediate plans for Phase 3 clinical program), TMA -4.3% (announces offering of up to $500 mln of Series F cumulative convertible redeemable preferred stock), SCON -3.9% (not seeing any news, likely related to profit taking after 350%+ run over the past week), BCS -3.4% & DB -3.0% (potentially related to cautious sentiment following reports that the Bank of England extended 1.6 bln pounds at its highest rate, without providing the name or number of borrowers -- see 7:23 comment) -
Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA) halditud ning tasub silm peal hoida teistel mortgage laenajatel kui uudised välja tulevad.
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TMA Thornburg Mortg confirms it raises $500 mln in cumulative convertivble redemable preferred stock offering (12.09 +0.93)
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Freddie Mac (FRE) prognoosib peale kehvasid tulemusi housing turu olukorra hullemaks muutumist aastal 2008...
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Eilses börsipäevas sai pikalt diskuteeritud BW teemal, siis tänaseks jätkuks panen siia ka ruteeniumi hinna graafiku, mis pärast pikka stabiliseerumisperioodi täna Aasia turgudel 15 dollari jagu kukkus. Esialgu pidasin seda isegi BW hommikuse $44+ esimeste tehingute süüdlaseks..., kuid päeva jooksul on eilsete magusate STXi kommentaaride ja turu positiivsuse taustal sellest mööda vaadatud:
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Nerve gas discovered at UN, evacuation underway, ABC says
ABC reported on their website blog about 20 min ago that United Nations weapons inspectors discovered six to eight vials of a dangerous nerve gas, phosgene, as they were cleaning out offices at a U.N. building in New York this morning, federal authorities tell the Blotter on ABCNews.com. The federal authorities said the office, in a U.N. building near headquarters, was being evacuated and the White House had been notified at 10 a.m. New York police and fire officials said federal authorities had not notified them of any problem at the U.N. building, as of 11 a.m. A U.N. spokesperson said a statement would be issued shortly.
