Börsipäev 4. september
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Kui Aasia turud alustasid tänast päeva pigem miinuspoolelt, siis Euroopa on pisut positiivsem. Huvitav kommentaar tuli täna Deutsche Bank’i tegevdirektorilt Josef Ackermann’ilt, kes ütles, et pärast augustikuiseid turbulentseid tingimusi on turud lõpuks ometi näitamas stabiliseerumise märke. Kahtlustan, et USAs 'turbulentsed' tingimused nii pea ei möödu ning nagu Rev Shark täna ütleb - pea maa sisse peitmine ei kaota probleeme ära... ning hapuks läinud investeeringutega fonde võib pinnale kerkida veel küll.
Sarnaselt eelmisele nädalalegi on ka sel korral oodata hulgaliselt majandusraporteid, mis kindlasti tähelepanu saavad ja ka siin foorumites kajastamist leiavad. Täna teatatakse juulikuu ehituskulutused (ootus -0.1%) ning augustikuu tööstusaktiivsust kajastav ISM indeksi näit (ootus 53 punkti), auto (ootus 5 mln) ja veoauto (ootus 7 mln) müügid. -
Ning kasumiootuste kärped finantssektoris on katku kombel levimas - täna langetab neid Merrill Lynch BAC'il, WFC'l ja PNC'l, nentides, et Föderaalreservi intressimäärade kärpimine aitaks ettevõtete kasuminumbritele kaasa, kuid tihti on pärast kärpimist kasumid siiski kokkupoole kuivanud. Teadupärast alandas Merrill eelmisel nädalal Wal-Marti (WMT) soovitust neutraalse pealt 'müü' peale, olles niigi 'neutraalse' soovitusega üksnes 2 nädalat varem välja tulnud.
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More Worries Lie Ahead
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2007 7:19 AM EDT
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
-- Martin Luther King Jr.
The market always presents us with challenges and controversies, but we kick off the month of September with far more than the usual amount. What makes things particularly tricky is that despite significant negative news in the credit markets and about subprime lending in particular, the major indices closed positively in the month of August.
Our challenge is to try to reconcile the generally positive market action in recent weeks with the fact that there are some significant issues out there. We have to ask whether the market has priced in the negatives and whether there are sufficient positives to keep things moving higher.
The market got a boost on Friday after both President Bush and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered up hope that the feds would be standing by to help out if subprime mortgage issues spread. The market seems to have accepted the belief that things are contained and that the fallout to the broad stock market will remain muted.
There is no question that the real estate market is struggling, but the view of many market participants is that it will not be a major drag on the stock market. The main argument for that proposition is that while the domestic economy may be a bit soft, there is plenty of strength in the international economy.
Perhaps that is so, but what makes that thinking rather troubling is that so many are embracing it as we are still trying to determine the ultimate cost of the credit issues. As a story in Barron's illustrated this weekend, not only do eight high-profile market strategists expect the market to hold up, but on average they expect it to be 6.4% higher by the end of the year than it is today.
That sort of sanguine thinking as we kick off the historically weak month of September and attempt to dismiss the recent problems should give us pause. The market has done a nice job of coming back from dips several times over the past year or so, but too many are thinking we will pull that off yet again, and that should makes us at least a little nervous.
Before we become too optimistic, it is very important to keep in mind that the major indices are still technically troubled. Although we pulled off a very strong bounce after the mid-August scare, we have not repaired the damage. We are hitting up against significant resistance levels, and while the Nasdaq 100 looks pretty good, the small-cap indices have lagged badly.
We have challenges and difficulties in front of us and we can't be too sanguine at this point. The problems that recently hit this market have not suddenly disappeared.
Early indications are mixed as the news flow is slow.
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Ja siia lõppu veel üks eraldi teade Suurbritannia hedge fondist Synapse, mis oma uksed nädalavahetusel kinni pani:
WSJ reports a British hedge fund backed by a beleaguered German bank and exposed to U.S. mortgages has shut its doors in a move that underscores the credit-mkt downturn's continuing effects on European investors and institutions. In a brief note on its Web site yesterday, London hedge-fund manager Synapse Investment Management said it closed its 200 mln euros ($272.5 mln) Synapse High Grade ABS Fund No. 1. German bank SachsenLB, the fund's main investor, asked for its money back in recent weeks and triggered the closing, according to people familiar with the situation. Synapse said the fund was closed "due to the severe illiquidity in the market," according to the Synapse Web site. -
Väikese hilinemisega ülevaade ka Euroopa ja Aasia indeksitest.
Saksamaa DAX -0.07%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.08%
Inglismaa FTSE +0.02%
Hispaania IBEX -0.41%
Venemaa RTS -1.29%
Poola WIG -0.12%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.63%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.08%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.50%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.94%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.40%
Tai Set -1.30%
India Sensex +0.28%
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ISM Manufacturing 52.9 vs 53.0 consensus
ISM Prices Paid 63.0 vs 63.0 consensus
Construction Spending -0.4% vs -0.1% consensus -
Kui keegi veel mõtleb, et mis tehnoloogiasektorit tagant tõukab, siis Apple(AAPL) sai täna Piper Jaffray'lt uue kõrgema hinnasihi - sedapuhku $211. Väidetavalt iPhone'i müügiedu hinnasihi tõstmise taga...
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Lisaks koguvad hoogu kuulujutud, et homme avaldatakse iPod'i järgmise generatsioon mudelid. Huvitavaim neist oleks uus iPod video, mis on varustatud puutetundliku laiekraaniga ning WiFi'ga. Kõvaketta asemel kasutatakse hoopiski flash mälu. Allikate väitel alustab allhankija Inventec Appliances tarneid oktoobri alguses, mis positisioneeriks Apple'i soodsalt peatselt algavaks jõulumüügihooajaks.
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Apple'i teema jätkuks (iPhone'i müügiprognoosidest hoitakse ikka visalt kinni):
AppleInsider reports the co's iPhone outsold all smart phones in the United States during July, and equaled the sales of the most popular feature phone, according to mkt research co iSuppli. The two models of the Apple handset accounted for 1.8% of all mobile-handset unit sales during the month, the co said. The co went on to say that, while the speed of the iPhone's ascent to the top of the smart-phone and feature-phone charts is remarkable, it's equally amazing that Apple achieved this in the face of numerous, well-entrenched competitors. "Some of the iPhone's success in July can be attributed to pent-up demand following months of hype. Real proof of success will come in the coming months as demand patterns stabilize," iSuppli wrote. "Based on consumer demand, Apple's brand image, industry anticipation and iSuppli's estimates of volume shipments by manufacturers and the market segment, iSuppli is maintaining its projection that 4.5 million iPhones will ship in 2007, rising to more than 30 million units in 2011." -
S&P500 on juuli tippudest madalamal veel üksnes 3.9% ja augusti põhjadest üleval 9.5%; QQQQ on juuli tippudest madalamal veel 1.2% ja augusti põhjadest üleval 12.9%. Isegi, kui Föderaalreserv peaks määrasid kärpima ja süsteemi lisalikviidsust pumpama, siis kui palju sellest 'oodatavast teoreetilisest tõusust' siis veel üldse tuletamata on.. ehk kui palju on seda juba sisse arvestatud? Kuu aega tagasi räägiti, et tänased probleemid on tõsisemad, kui nad olid märtsi languse ajal ning et kiiret taastumist oleks patt oodata. Ja probleemid ongi tõsisemad - ega siis muidu Bush ja Bernanke sedavõrd mures ei oleks ning samuti poleks mitmed juba ajaloo varju vajunud hedge-fondid põhja läinud ning kinnisvaraga tegelevad ettevõtted pankrotte välja kuulutanud. Huvitav olukord igaljuhul...
