Börsipäev 10. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna on päris huvitav artikkel Bloombergis finantssektori teemal, kus tuuakse välja, et Bear Sternsi 10-aastased võlakirjad kauplevad allahindlusega Lõuna-Ameerika ühe ebastabiilseks peetava riigi Kolumbia 10-aastaste võlakirjade suhtes. See peaks päris hästi illustreerima, kuivõrd riskantseks kogu sektorit hetkel peetakse - finantssektori kasumid moodustavad aga S&P500 Earnings komponendist ca 30%.
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Mark Hulbert kirjutab, kuidas parimad market timerid on USA turu suhtes endiselt optimistlikud. Vaatluse all on parimad pikaajalise tootluse ja riski suhtega uudiskirjad. Sama uurimus viidi läbi ka eelmine aasta ning siis polnud parimate ajastajate seas ainsatki karu, DJIA ongi sellest ajast tõusnud 20%. Kaheksast parimast turuajastajast 5 on bullish, 2 moderately bullish ja 1 neutral.
Samal ajal on välja toodud ka õige halvemate track-recorditega uudiskirjad ja nemad on lähituleviku suhtes üsna negatiivselt meelestatud...
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Tänased tähtsamad reitingumuudatused:
Jefferies & Co tõstab Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) soovituse 'Underperform" pealt "Hoia" peale ning hinnasiht $12.50.
Lehman Brothers langetab Palmi (PALM) soovitust 'equal-weight' pealt 'underweight' peale.
UBS on täna energiasektoris positiivsete callidega väljas ning Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) ning Baker Hughes (BHI) väärivad nende arvates kõik 'Osta' soovitust. -
Euroopa tähtsamad turud enam-vähem nullis, väikese negatiivse alamtooniga - Islandi, Taani, Norra, Poola ja Luksemburgi turud kõige suuremas miinuses. Aasias suures miinuses Jaapan, peale teadet, et 2. kvartalis majandus langes -1.2% võrra (oodatust suurem langus).
Saksamaa DAX -0.28%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.19%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.18%
Hispaania IBEX -0.35%
Venemaa RTS -0.10%
Poola WIG -1.46%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.22%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.07%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.48%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.33%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.95%
Tai Set -0.68%
India Sensex +0.04%
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Vaatasin LHV 10 enimhoitud aktsiat. Väga Baltikumikeskne. Mäletan kui oli aeg, kui seal olid ainult q-d ja muud USA aktsiad ja indeksid. Millest selline trendi muutus? Kas rohkem taksojuhte (ise kaasaarvatud) või rohkem tarkust (ostetakse kodu ligidalt)?
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MSM, pigem on asi selles, et kohalikele turgudele võivad investeerida ka LHV fondid ja portfellihaldus, mille mahud on kiiresti suurenenud ning kahtlemata on kasvanud ka eraisikust investorite arv, kelle esimesed tehingud on ikkagi reeglina koduturul. Ja isegi kui meil on investor Xxx, kes tahab oma raha hajutatult aktsiaturgudele paigutada, siis reeglina tahetakse midagi oma portfelli ka 'kodusest' Baltikumist, mille osas valik taandub kahekohalisele numbrile, USA turgudelt ettevõtteid portfelli lisades on aga valik vaja teha viiekohalisest ettevõtete arvust, mistõttu tõenäosus, et näiteks kahel Sakut hoidval investoril oleks mõlemal ka Exxon Mobil portfellis, on arvestades USA turgudel noteeritud naftaettevõtete arvu ikkagi väga väike.
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Intel on tugeva nõudluse najal tõstmas oma kolmanda kvartali prognoose, tulu oodatakse $9.4 - $9.8 miljardit, eelmine vahemik oli $9 - $9.6 miljardit. Brutomarginaalidest oodatakse jõudmist vahemiku ülemise äära lähedale, seega üle 52%. Muud prognoosid jäeti samaks. Aktsia eelturul 2% kõrgemal.
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Madise poolt mainitud Inteli prognooside tõstmise peale lendasis ka futuurid kõrgemale:
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Fairy Tale Ending?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/10/2007 7:59 AM EDT
Experience comprises illusions lost, rather than wisdom gained.
-- Joseph Roux
For quite a long time, market participants were very happy to embrace the "Goldilocks" view of the economy. Things weren't so hot that inflation was an issue or too cold that economic growth was a problem. Things were just right, and there was no reason that they wouldn't continue that way.
What has been particularly interesting about that viewpoint is that there have been obvious and growing problems in the real estate market for quite some time. The stock market didn't much care and, even more surprising, the recent subprime and credit issues resulted in only a momentary dip before the indices bounced back strongly.
As of last Tuesday, the Nasdaq was down just a bit more than 3% from its recent highs. Given the blaring headlines about subprime debt issues and the problems in the credit markets, the stock market has hardly suffered any great pain at all. Although volatility has picked up tremendously the "correction," if you can even call it that, that we have suffered so far is remarkably mild.
On Friday, the Goldilocks economic view took a hit. The jobs report was extremely poor and the idea that maybe the housing and credit issues may spill over into the broader economy began to gain some traction. The market is now being forced to consider the fact that things may not be so smooth going forward.
However all is not lost for Goldilocks and her proponents. Many of them believe that the idyllic story can continue with the help of the Fed. Ideally, the Fed will cut interest rates sufficiently and aggressively to keep the economy moving along and prevent things from cooling off too much.
Hope that the Fed will act has already done a good job of helping to keep the market up. Much of the bounce off the lows in August is a result of optimism that a dovish Fed will keep things propped up and prevent problems from spreading.
So the question for us at this point is whether the Fed really can keep the Goldilocks economic scenario in place. Obviously an interest rate cut in the near term will help matters and will likely give us at least a temporary boost, but what then? Are we finally going to pay a price for believing in fairy tales?
I am very concerned about what happens to this market after the Fed delivers the interest rate cut everyone is anticipating at this point. The power of such a cut is already being priced in to a large degree. All you have to do is look at the strength in bonds to see how the market has already discounted lower rates to some degree.
We have some very tricky crosscurrents to navigate in the short term. The illusions that have helped drive this market for so long are now being called into question, and that will require us to be extra cautious at this juncture.
We have some minor strength to kick off the new week. Asian markets were down overnight, but Europe was mixed. We don't have a lot of news on the wires, but the Fed remains the primary focus.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on M&A news: KMA +69.1% (to be acquired by Humana for $6.20/share)... Other news: CHTP +17.0% (resolves bioavailability issue and reports greater than 10-fold improvement in relative bioavailability of new CH-1504 formulation), HALO +10.3% (co and BAX announce collaboration for development of Subcutaneous Gammagard liquid administration using Enhanze), CTDC +7.1% (continued momentum), ARIA +7.0% (announces agreement with FDA on Special Protocol Assessment for Phase 3 clinical trial of Oral Deforolimus), CRUS +6.2% (Roth says CRUS was designed into the new iPod classic), JASO +5.2% (secures a new long-term wafer supply agreement and revises major supply agreement), TARR +5.6% (continued momentum following Friday's 130%+ gain), SNCR +4.7% (trading higher after AAPL announced it sold its one millionth iPhone yesterday), RMBS +3.6% (reaches settlement in securities class action suit), AAPL +2.8% (announces it sold its one millionth iPhone yesterday), BSC +2.6% (private investor Joseph Lewis disclosed a 7% stake in SC 13D filing).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on news: CHIP -16.6% on light volume (AP article from yesterday noted chip implants were linked to animal tumors), CLWR -4.8% (not seeing any news, stock could be seeing profit-taking after Friday's late day run), CBG (Hearing downgraded to neutral at tier 1 firm), ISIL -2.5% (Hearing downgraded to sell at tier 1 firm), BCSI -1.6% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel) -
$26.50 pealt on Intel praeguseks $25.85 peale alla kukkunud.
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Kell 11.00 ET toimub San Francisco Fedi presidendi Yelleni sõnavõtt - kui sealt on kuulda vastuolu 50 bps'ilise intressimäärade langetamise osas, siis tõenäosus selliseks sammuks väheneb oluliselt. Yellen on reeglina toetanud madalamaid intressimäärasid.
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Joel, su jutt tundub loogiline.
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FMD avaldas septembri securitization-i suuruse - 2.8 mld $:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWNAS373520070910?rpc=44
Viimases analüüsis pakkus Mr. Snowling, et firma suudab koguda vaid $1.25 mld, põhjendades seda "credit crunchiga". Tänane teade näitab, et seis era-õppelaenude turul on siiski elujõuline, ja turg kasvab.
Kui siia lisada veel Sallie Mae (SLM) buyout diili läbikukkumise võimalus, on FMD upside tõenäosus suur. Nimelt kukkus FMD hind aprillis diili uudise peale 45 -> 35 peale, mis võib osutuda nüüd põhjendamatuks.
Lähipäevil on oodata kvartaalse dividendi teadet. Hetkel on dividend yield 3%, ilmselt kasvab see näitaja veelgi.
FMD riskidest on Q&A vormis põhjaliku analüüsi kirjutanud Tom Brown:
http://www.bankstocks.com/article.asp?type=1&id=9881517 -
Yellen says ultimately fallout from current crisis could be small
Yellen says "significant" risk if housing prices fall in context of rising unemployment
Says financial market turmoil likely to intensify, prolong housing downturn -
LHV Pro investeerimisidees Motorolas (MOT) on Dodge & Cox avaldanud 10.2%-lise osaluse oma SC 13G filing'uga.
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Dendreoni(DNDN) liikumist jälgijatele võin öelda, et tänase 7+% hüppe taga peaksid olema kuulujutud ravimi uue 'fast track' läbivaatuse võimaluse saamise osas.
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Fed's Fisher says U.S. economy appears to be weathering subprime/housing storm. Tighter credit doesn't appear to have had major impact on economy outside of real estate.
Nagu graafikult näha on turg selle peale väikse jõnksu üles teinud -
Consumer Credit $7.5 bln vs $8.0 bln, prior revised to $11.9 bln from 13.2 bln
