Börsipäev 2. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänast börsipäeva alustan natuke teistmoodi ning tõstan esile eilseid sündmuseid Venemaalt, kus Putin valgustas natukene oma plaane poliitikas edaspidi. Poliitiline stabiilsus ja jätkusuutlikkus on turule alati meeldinud...
Deutsche Bank:
Putin sheds light on his post-2008 role
Speaking yesterday at the United Russia party congress, President Putin declared that hewould head the party's list at the parliamentary elections. Even more importantly, Putin saidthat it was realistic for United Russia to head the government after the March 2008presidential elections. In our view, Putin's statements significantly increase the probabilitythat the current Prime Minister Victor Zubkov will be anointed as Putin’s successor, and thathe and Putin will swap posts in May 2008.
There are several possible implications from these crucial statements by Putin:
�� political uncertainty may fade early on, as the markets get greater clarity on the scenariofor the succession
�� continuity is likely to be ensured, with Putin playing a key role in post-2008 Russia
�� the succession process is likely to be smooth and orderly.
Admittedly, there is still the possibility of Ivanov, Medvedev or another candidate running forthe presidency, but what matters at this stage is that Putin may be set to play a key role inpost-2008 Russia. One view is that Putin cares so much about continuity and the preservationof his legacy that he has decided to stay on as one of the key leaders of Russia. A morecynical view of the emerging succession scenario is that Putin is clinging on to power andwants to install a loyal and dependent political figure in order to return as Russia's president,either in 2012 or even earlier.
Whatever view one takes on the emerging succession scenario, the markets will likely care about continuity and a smooth succession. And in our view there will be continuity in Russia,with Putin still holding the key to the 2008 presidential elections.
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Lisan siia ka Venemaa RTS indeksi graafiku. Nagu Madis ka vastavas foorumis kirjutas, on täna Pro all üleval uus nädalaülevaade Venemaa aktsiaturu kohta (vene k.).
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Mulle endale need BCSi ülevaated küll meeldivad ja soovitan kõigil vähegi Venemaa tulevikuperspektiividesse uskujatel võtta aega selle turu pikaajalise arengupotentsiaali hindamiseks ning neid ülevaateid Pro alt lugeda.
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Dean Foods Co. (DF) on firma, mis toodab ja turustab erinevaid piimatooteid USA-s. Täna teatas ettevõte, et näeb 2007. aasta kasumit tunduvalt madalamal prognoositust (EPS $1.25 vs $1.46 konsensus). Kuigi piimahindade tõus ei ole kellelegi saladuseks, on firma sõnavõtt ikkagi väga nutune ning sisendihinnad on kerkinud eriti agressiivselt just viimasel kvartalil. Prognoosid hindade languse osas ei ole teoks saanud. Kui ühest küljest pigistavad kerkivad sisendihinnad, siis ettevõte tunnistab, et teisest küljest reageerivad tarbijad hinnatõusudele väga kehvalt, liikudes eemale bränditoodetest.
Ning tagatipuks laseb firma veel 600-700 töötajat lahti. Samade probleemide üle on kurtnud mitmed jaemüüjad ja konkurendid ning viimasel ajal on jaemüügisektoris olukord aina tõsisemaks läinud – seda näitab ka asjaolu, et peale Fedi intresimäärade kergitamisele järgnenud tõusu on jaemüügisektor vaid langust näidanud. Sisendihindade inflatsioon ja tarbija nõrkus mõjutavad ettevõtete kasumimarginaale.
DF: "Rapidly increasing and record high dairy commodity costs have created a very challenging operating environment and 2007 results have been well short of our expectations," said Gregg Engles, Chairman and CEO. "The third quarter has been particularly challenging as dairy commodity costs have risen sharply, hitting all time highs. This is by far the most difficult operating environment in the history of the company, reinforcing the importance of the long-term strategic initiatives we have underway. These efforts will better position us to face future challenges."
Jack Callahan, Chief Financial Officer of Dean Foods, added, "As a result of this extreme commodity environment, we face unprecedented cost challenges in our Dairy Group operations, including increased shrink costs and materially reduced profits from excess cream sales. At the same time, sales volumes in the Dairy Group have softened as consumers react to the record high prices. We are also seeing a pronounced shift from branded products to private label in some of our regional brands. At WhiteWave, results continue to be negatively impacted by the oversupply of organic milk."
As part of its ongoing initiative to streamline operations, the Company also announced a reduction in workforce that is expected to affect approximately 600-700 positions. Implementation will begin immediately with a voluntary reduction program followed by an involuntary reduction, if necessary. The program is expected to conclude by late October.
Kui enne oli juttu Venemaast, siis on huvitav vaadata tänaseid Pepsi Bottling tulemusi, mis ületasid analüütikute ootuseid. Tugevad käibenäitajad suudeti näidata nii USAs, Kanadas kui ka Euroopas. Euroopa käibe vedajaks oli aga just Venemaa..
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FT reports Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and the bank are understood to have agreed to form an off-balance sheet vehicle with about $5 bln of equity and $10 bln of debt to buy impaired loans, which could include some from Citigroup's investment bank. The vehicle could allow Citigroup to sell some LBO debt, which it has underwritten but is struggling to syndicate, as well as other troubled loans. A Citigroup executive said such deals would be done at arms-length. It would be the first time a private equity firm has formed such a venture with an investment bank and is surprising as KKR irritated many bankers by refusing to back down on the terms of the debt agreed for several of its deals.
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Baidu.com initiated with an Overweight at J.P Morgan... hinnasiht $400
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Maikuu alguses tutvustasime LHV Pro all ettevõtet Commerce Bancorp (CBH) ning nüüd on teatatud firma ülevõtust: TD Bank Financial Group (TD) and CBH announce that they have signed a definitive agreement for TD to acquire CBH in a 75% stock and 25% cash transaction valued at US$8.5 bln
Huvitav on märkida, et sarnaselt eilsele NVT ülevõtule Nokia poolt, jäi preemia lahjaks. Turg on priced to perfection? eriti arvestades, et viimasel ajal on päris palju diile koost ära vajunud... -
Citigroup kärbib INTC ja AMD prognoose, põhjuseks tarbija nõrkus (briefing.com)
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Tasapisi tasuks turuosalistel hakata vaatama ka kaugemale kui järgmisesse kauplemistundi. 4. oktoobril teatab Euroopa Keskpank oma intressimääraotsusest ning viimase aja aktsiaturu ülespoole liikumist arvestades kombineerituna tuumiktarbijahinnaindeksi tõusuga 2.1%ni (soovitud ülemmäär on 2%), millest mõned päevad tagasi kirjutasin, on minu arust tekkimas vägagi ebasoodne riski ja tulu suhe aktsiate omamisel ECB otsuse-eelselt.
Pealegi on RIMM oma tulemused 4. oktoobril teatamas, mida täna kommenteerib Raymond James, kes langetab oma soovitust Market Perform’I peale, uskudes, et valuatsioon on ootusi juba sisaldamas ning ülespoole liikumise potentsiaal on jäänud lahjaks. -
Aasia lõpetas positiivsetes toonides, sama ka suure osa Euroopaga.
Saksamaa DAX +0.49%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.62%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.39%
Hispaania IBEX +1.28%
Venemaa RTS +2.72%
Poola WIG +1.49%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.19%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.90%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börsid suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börsid suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.90%
Tai Set +0.02%
India Sensex N/A (börsid suletud)
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How Long Can We Smile at Bad News?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/2/2007 8:27 AM EDT
"Education is the path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty."
-- Mark Twain
Yesterday morning two large financial institutions, UBS and C, warned that they were taking huge asset write-downs, seeing big losses in fixed income trading, and increasing their loan-loss provisions. That certainly doesn't sound like very good news yet the market held steady when the news hit and then ramped up all day to produce a huge gain.
That seems like an illogical reaction until you consider that bad news was expected -- only its severity was uncertain. The announcement resolved the uncertainty and that allowed the market to fully discount it and move on.
Of course, losses at two banks doesn't address the ultimate fallout for the economy from the credit and real estate issues, but it did provide some hope that maybe things can be quantified. Uncertainty is the biggest negative for markets because it can't be measured; the actual bad news is easier for the market to digest because it can price it in and look past it.
That brings us to the obvious question of whether these credit issues that hit the market during August are now a problem of the past. Is the reaction to UBS and Citibank an indication that the market has already discounted these negatives completely and is likely to greet further such announcements from other financial institutions as positive?
Perhaps, but that gives rise to the confusing, underlying illogic of this market since the low in August. How can we continue to rally when all news is bad? Why such optimism in the face of so many obvious negatives?
The fact that the negatives are so obvious is part of the reason they haven't matter that much. Because they are known, many believe they have been addressed and discounted. And apparently when they are known so well and are measured in actual dollars, then we can forget about those problems and rally.
So where do we go from here? Do we keep on running on the basis that all major negatives are known and largely priced in? That seems to be the attitude of the market, but such cocky optimism is usually quite dangerous in the market. Certainly the bulls have the momentum and there is no edge in trying to fight them, but when things get as heated -- as they did yesterday -- it can't persist for too long without some sort of profit-taking kicking in.
Some dismissed the action yesterday as seasonality associated with the first day of a new quarter. We need to keep that in mind as things unfold today. There are lots of folks who are troubled by their inability to keep pace with the jump in the market and they will be the dip buyers who will determine what happens if any weakness kicks in.
We have a mild start to the day. Overseas markets were up in sympathy with the strong U.S. move. There isn't much news flow so far this morning and little movement. Oil and gold are trading down.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on M&A-related news: VIAC +50.9% (to be acquired by PKI for $7.25/share; stem-cell names STEM +4.7%, ASTM +4.2%, GERN +2.2% trading higher in sympathy, but on light volume), PDLI +7.2% (co to actively seek sale of entire company or its key assets), CBH +2.0% (to be acquired by TD in stock and cash deal totalling ~$42 per CBH share)... China stocks are seeing continued strength with a broad-based rally in Hong Kong overnight (Hang Seng closed +3.9% and H-shares +5.6%): JRJC +8.0%, LFC +6.2%, BIDU +3.1% (initiated with an Overweight at J.P Morgan), CHL +3.0%, FXI +2.9%, CHU +2.7%, CPSL +1.5%... Other news: LUM +26.5% (co discloses it has repaid all warehouse lines of credit that were used to finance whole loan purchases), PKX +6.4% (traded higher in South Korea after positive broker report sent South Korea's third-largest steelmaker, Dongkuk Steel Mill, shares up by 14% - Bloomberg.com), UBS +3.8% (upgraded at JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley), MVSN +3.2% (discloses it settled lawsuit with MOT), SYMC +2.6% (Jon Najarian on CNBC highlights heavy call buying in SYMC), NBL +2.1% (NBL will replace ASN in the S&P 500), GRMN +1.9% (recovering slightly after yesterday's -10% move).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: EFJI -22.8%, DF -8.7% PALM -4.1%... Gold stocks trading lower with lower spot gold prices on a rise in the dollar: HMY -5.6%, HL -5%, GOLD -4%, CDE -3.9%, GG -3.7%, GFI -3.6%, AZK -3.1... Other news: TD -5.1% (acquires Commerce Bancorp in cash and stock deal), TARR -3.8% (announces reinstatement of $79.6 mln of Fannie Mae Loans), CRNT -3.7% (announces a 6 mln share common stock follow on offering), BRLC -3.2% (Downgraded to NEUTRAL at Robert W. Baird). -
Kas keegi teab põhjust, miks TSL-iga algab õige action iga päev 16:40, mitte 16:30?
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jyriado, tegemist NYSE stockiga. Neil algabki enamasti hiljem action
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jyriado
TSL on NYSE aktsia, seal hakkab päev vist miski sarnase oksjoniga nagu Balti börsidelgi oleme harjunud nägema ja tähestiku järjekorras matchitakse avaoksjonil ristuvaid ordereid ... Tallinna Börsil see võtab miski 30 sekundit ... NYSE-l siis veidi kauem aktsiate arvu tõttu -
Pending Home Sales -6.5% vs -2.1% consensus, prior revised to -10.7% from -12.2%
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Oskab keegi ka tänast Gmarketi tõusu seletada?
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1Hope, viimasel ajal liikunud BIDU ralli peale väga kenasti ning turuga (aasia) kaasa.. ühtegi konkreetset uudist või kommentaari firma osas täna ma ei näe.
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Gmarketi tõus viimasel ajal on meile meelejärele olnud, kuid samas on aktsiahinna kerkimine ka liiga äkiline. Vaadates näiteks, kuidas on liikunud FXI, siis riskid Aasias on kindlasti suurenenud. Oleme kindlasti pikas perspektiivis GMKT-pullid, kuid lühiajaliselt on aktsia vaid paari nädalaga märkimisväärselt kerkinud, mistõttu võtame hetkel kasumit ning oleme ootamas paremat kohta sisenemiseks. Kasumiks ca 35%.
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midagi SLM vs FMD 'ga jälle liigub
uudist ka näeb keegi ? -
SLM SLM Corp: Flowers offers $50/share in cash plus up to $10 in warrants- Bloomberg (52.10 +2.20) -Update-
Flowers says warrants would pay $7/share if SLM meets forecast
11:55 SLM SLM Corp buyout group sends revised proposal-Bloomberg (49.85 -0.13)
FMD First Marblehead drops over a point following headlines regarding Flowers' revised proposal for SLM (39.52 +1.11)
FMD traded lower when the SLM deal was originally announced back in Apr, on the idea that an acquisition involving JPM and BAC as buyers could ultimately threaten FMD's securitized loan volumes. -
uuuuu, scary
offerti revisimisest on minu arust juba varem räägitud
selle SLM deali ümber lüüakse ikka kõvasti vahtu (turul vähemalt)
SLM ostjad on kinnitanud, et FMD koostöö jätkub ning samas FMD pidevalt vähendab SLM ostjate osakaalu
muud vahet ei ole, lihtsalt SLM "kirves" pea kohal jõuame sihini natuke hiljem,
sihini aga jõuame, selles ma ei kahtle -
SLM SLM Corp refuses to meet with Flowers Group on new bid - CNBC
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tänased FMD liikumised
+6.5%
-8%
+6% -
ma vist ei näe selgelt ... kas tõesti jaemüüjad (RTH), finantssektor (XLF) ja majaehitajad (XHB) performivad nii Dow, S&P500 kui Nasdaqi suhtes ja lisaks veel kõik 3 plusspoolel ka? :)
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SLM puhul on turul väike segadus:
pakkumine 50$ - selline on väärtus ostja silmis
SLM ütleb pakkumise ära - müüja silmis on väärtus kõrgem
kummal on õigus ? -
speedy, ma saan aru, et lõplik hind koos warrantitega võib ikka kõrgemaks kujuneda...teoreetiliselt isegi kuni $60ni. Umbes pool tundi tagasi kirjutas ka Briefing sellest:
SLM SLM Corp: Investor Group confirms revised proposal to Sallie Mae (50.95 +1.05) -Update-
J.C. Flowers & Co, on behalf of itself and its partners JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Friedman Fleischer and Lowe, today sent a revised proposal to the Board of Directors of SLM Corporation (SLM), commonly known as Sallie Mae, to buy the co at a price that appropriately and fairly reflects the new economic and legislative environment that faces the co. In the revised proposal, the investor group offered: 1) Up to $60 per Sallie Mae share, composed of $50 in cash plus warrants with a payout of up to an additional $10 per share. 2) Based on the investor group's analysis, if Sallie Mae performs consistent with its own projections, the warrants could result in a payout of over $7 per share. If the co exceeds its projections, the payout could reach the full $10 per share. In the letter, J. Christopher Flowers said, "This revised proposal offers full and fair value to the Sallie Mae shareholders in light of the changes that have occurred since the signing of our agreement, and a significant premium to what the company's unaffected share price would likely be based on historical trading ranges and current market conditions." -
Former Fed Chairman Greenspan, speaking in London, says inflation rates likely to be higher in five years.
