Börsipäev 5. oktoober
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Täna kell 15.30 Eesti aja järgi avaldatakse USA septembrikuu tööjõuraport, kus peale augustikuu 4000 töökoha vähenemist mittepõllumajandussektoris oodatakse, et eelmisel kuul näidati 100 000 uue töökoha lisandumist.
Tegu on päris teraselt jälgitava raportiga ning on paar asja, mida tasub selle juures tähele panna. Esiteks, kuna september on nii-öelda koolikuu, siis olulist positiivset mõju võib raportile avaldada kohalike omavalitsuste haridusasutuste töökohad – selle on ka Tony Crescenzi Realmoney all välja toonud. Seega tuleks see adekvaatse tööjõuturu ülevaate saamiseks tänasest raportist välja jätta ning keskenduda erasektori töökohtadele.
Lisaks peaks täna tulema valitsuse lõplik ümberhindlus töökohtade arvu osas 12-kuulisele perioodile märts 2006 kuni märts 2007. Prognooside järgi võivad senised numbrid, et tol perioodil lisati 1.9 miljonit uut töökohta, olla liialt optimistlikud isegi kuni 500 000 töökoha võrra. See oleks suurim töökohtade allahindlus alates 1991. aastast (mil allahindlus oli 640 000). Siin ka põhjus, miks igakuiseid tööjõuraporteid usaldada ei saa, kuna see sisaldab hulgaliselt ‘müra’ ja valitsuse eeldusi tööjõuturu tervise kohta.
Lõpliku selgituse sellele fenomenile annab Crescenzi järgmine lõik:
It is fairly easy to understand why the benchmark revision might be downward both this time around and next year when data through March 2008 are released. As I have frequently noted throughout this year, monthly payroll data have probably been inflated since last year by the government's overestimation of the amount of new net business formation occurring each month. Each month, the government plugs in additional numbers of jobs it feels likely were created but too new to be captured by the monthly payroll survey. In some months this plug factor is more than 200k workers, meaning the government has at times added more than 200k additional workers to the raw payroll count developed from the payroll survey. The problem recently is that the government has continued to assume that new businesses have been created in the construction and housing sectors, adjusting the data as if net business formation in these sectors had occurred at about the same rate as in the several years prior. This is obviously a mistake, because if anything there has been a decrease in the amount of businesses in these sectors.
The market response to benchmark revision depends upon the headline number. If payrolls are as-expected or stronger, the revision will seem a technical footnote to a still-healthy year of job growth. If payrolls are weak, recent gains in markets mean that context in which data are received has changed, which will make it difficult to absorb bad news, which on Friday could arrive in two forms-weak payrolls and the benchmark revision.
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Lõpuks leidub ka USAs inimesi, kes usuvad, et energia- ja toiduainete hindade tõus ei ole üksnes ajutine, mis tähendab, et tarbijahinnaindeksis üksnes tuumikosa - mis jätab välja energia, toidu, alkoholi, tubaka - vaatamine ei ole päris õige.
Dallas Fed chief warns on inflation - Financial Times The Financial Times reports the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has cautioned against ignoring the inflation represented by rising food and energy prices, revealing a continuing debate inside the US central bank over how best to evaluate price pressures. Richard Fisher on Thursday said the increases in food and energy prices over recent years could represent "longer-lived trends rather than transitory blips". If this was the case "the arguments made for excluding food and energy prices" from core inflation, the Fed's traditionally preferred measure, "would?be on shaky ground". The Dallas Fed chief cited Bank of England chief economist Charles Bean, who argues that core inflation captures the benefit of globalization and the rise of China in the form of cheaper manufactured goods, but ignores the cost in terms of upward pressure on food and energy prices. Mr. Fisher said he preferred the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean measure, which excludes only those goods and services that rise most or least in a given month. On this measure, the underlying rate of US inflation is 2.1% year on year, although Mr Fisher said it could fall in the months ahead.
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EasyJet ( EZJ ) - Euroopa suuruselt teine odavlennufirma teatas täna, et aastane maksueelne kasumikasv ületab varasema prognoosi 40%, ulatudes 50%ni.
Reisjate arv kasvas aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes 14.2% , septembrikuu reisjate arv oli 3.4 miljonit.
Lennufirma kinnitas, et kavatseb edasi laieneda, soovides laiendada oma turuosa 15% võrra.
Aktsia üleval 4% -
Stearns sets their Google (GOOG 579.03) 2008 tgt at $700
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Nonfarm Payrolls 110K vs 100K consensus, prior revised to 89 from -4
Kõige üllatavam on see eelneva raporti ülespoole korrigeerimine..uskumatu -
KB Home ja Lennar ... to Buy from Merrill Lynch
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Peamine tõus siiski valitsuse poolt "toodetud" töökohtade tõttu...housing vähenes juba teist kuud järjest..
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Väike kokkuvõte raportist. Erasektoris loodi uusi töökohti 73 000 vs eelmise kuu 24 000 (mis tõsteti nüüd 32 000 peale). Ehitussektor jätkuvalt nõrk ning töökohti vähenes seal -14 000 ringis (eelmine kuu -46 000), tööstussektoris -18 000 ringis ja kestvuskaupade tootmises ca -10 000.
Septembrikuu tugevus leidis aset eelkõige valitsuse sektori tugevuse tõttu, kuna just seal liideti 37 000 uut töökohta. Ning võib ka öelda, et eelmise kuu ülespoole revisioni võib valitsuse arvele panna, sest -28 000line number muudeti +57 000ks (vahe 85 000)... -
Arvamus edasisest Briefingu silme läbi:
The September employment data could end recession fears. /-/ There is no reason for the Fed to ease based on these data. In fact, the pickup in wage rates and the continued tight labor market conditions may lead to talk that the Fed 1/2% rate cut was too much too soon. In our opinion, it is more important for the stock market that a recession not develop than that the Fed cut rates further. These numbers are bullish for the stock market in that respect. -
Bush to make statement on economy at 9:55 EST on Friday, according to White House
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Merrill Lynch Says Credit Market Conditions to Adversely Impact Third Quarter 2007 Results; expects to report a net loss per diluted share of up to $0.50
Vot siis.... -
Henno tabelisse: -- Merrill: Write-downs of an estimated $4.5 billion, net of hedges, related to incremental third quarter market impact on the value of CDOs and sub-prime mortgages.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.65%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.46%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.75%
Hispaania IBEX +1.07%
Venemaa RTS +1.30%
Poola WIG +0.70%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.16
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.18%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.15%
Tai Set +0.44%
India Sensex -0.02%
USA turg on tööjõuraporti järel korralikult plussis avanemas - hetkel kogunisti +0.6%.
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The Federal Reserve's half-point rate cut on Sept. 18 may be enough to keep the economy from sinking from the financial market turmoil, said Donald Kohn
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Nagu ütleb Shark - "All news is good news..."
Today's Jobs Report Could Set the Tone
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/5/2007 8:08 AM EDT
If you want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.
-- Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa
The stock market has been acting extremely well since hitting a low in mid-August. We have gone up in a straight line since then, with only a couple of minor blips. The primary driving force behind the strength has been optimism that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates. In addition, many feel that the international economy remains strong and that third-quarter earnings reports are likely to be solid.
Those positive expectations, coupled with a high level of skepticism about a market hitting new highs when risks of a recession are becoming more clear, is keeping this market very strong and the technical picture positive.
This morning, the monthly jobs report has the capacity to affect the prevailing market views on a number of these things. First and foremost, a strong report will raise concerns that the Fed might not be so inclined to cut interest rates as quickly in the near future. We have been in one of those odd environments lately where bad news tends to be a positive for the market because it means the Fed is more likely to cut rates, which the market sees as more important than potential economic slowing.
The market really has had the best of everything lately. While it has had the Fed boosting things with interest rate cuts, we have yet to see any really dire economic news. The credit issues and real estate problems are being contained, at least theoretically, so stocks are seeing little pressure on that basis. With the Fed pumping up the liquidity and no major economic worries, stocks have had no choice but to continue to rise.
At some point, that dynamic is going to change. Either there are no real economic worries and the Fed is not going to give us more rate cuts, or we do have some economic problems and stocks are going to see some pressure as it affects earnings. The jobs report today and the upcoming earnings season will go a long way in setting the tone for the market.
It continues to be the bulls' game to lose at the moment. They have the winds of strong momentum at their backs and a strong technical setup. Anticipating a turn of events is a tough way to make money, but we need to be very aware of the potential market turning catalysts that are upon us. The jobs report is one thing that may start to affect the way investors view the current market strength.
We have a mildly positive start shaping up. Research In Motion (RIMM) is trading up slightly this morning after its report last night, and optimism in front of the jobs numbers is ramping up.
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The jobs report is a little better than expected, and there was an upward revision in the August numbers. There are no major signs of economic problems, which would seem to indicate less likelihood that the Fed will cut rates, but we are trading up on the news nonetheless.
With the credit and subprime issues quickly becoming a distant memory and solid employment, there seems to be little motivation for more Fed interest rate cuts, but in the present market environment all news is good news. We continue to trade higher as I write.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Consistent with this week's trend, several China stocks aare set to gap higher again this morning, with strength in Hang Seng overnight (+3.2%) and a Chinese IPO coming to market today: ORS +16.2%, KUN +11.1%, ATS +10.2%, RCH +10.2%, ENTU +9.4%, GSI +8.9%, CLWT +8.1%, CHNR +6.2%, EFUT +8.3%... Other news: BHIP +29.0% (co issued press release last night announcing the successful completion of a Beijing conference hosted by its Chinese subsidiary -- for further color see yesterday's 10:22 comment), KTOS +15.9% (filed delinquent financial reports for Q1 and Q2), POZN +12.1% (plans to submit response to approvable letter for Trexima within the next ten days), CRDC +10.6% (still checking for any news), ZIXI +8.8% (not seeing anything new), STAR +8.3% (Cramer highlighted co as an overlooked IPO), OXGN +6.8% (reports positive interim results from Phase Ib Zybrestat-Bevacizumab combination study).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: LWSN -5%, TLAB -4.8%, NBR -3.4%... Other news: SMA -9.8% (discloses accounting issues at Sheffield, UK operating unit and possible restatement), ARAY -6.3% (CIBC made cautious comments following co's analyst day), CLWR -5.6% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns), KONG -4.7% (downgraded to Negative at Susquehanna), LEAP -3% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), ALU -2.1% (in danger of losing AT&T role - Financial Times). -
GOOG hinnasihti tõstetud täna, soovitused samad ...
Google GOOG Nollenberger Capital Buy $575 » $650
Google GOOG Bear Stearns Outperform $550 » $700 -
keegi pääseb ligi Cantor Fitzgerald'i toimikutesse?
tahaks lugeda, mida nad ESEA kohta räägivad
täna jälle HOLD, mille targetit on poole aasta jooksul juba 4 korda tõstetud -
Euroseas Acquires Secondhand Vessel; Raise Estimates And Price Target
We raise our price target to $18 (from $14) based on a new 6.5x EV/EBITDA
multiple (from 7.0x) to our new 2008 EBITDA estimate of $80 million (from
$57 million).
n Yesterday, after the market open, Euroseas announced that it agreed to
purchase a secondhand Panamax vessel for $28.6 million. This marks the fourth
vessel purchased by the company since its July stock offering.
n The vessel, the "M/V Ioanna P.," is a 64,873 dwt Panamax ship built in 1984.
Upon delivery (between October 15th and November 15th, at the seller's
option), the vessel will enter into a period charter until July 2008 at a daily rate
of $35,500.
n This ship brings the company's dry bulk fleet to five vessels, increasing
Euroseas' exposure to the booming dry bulk space. Additionally, the ship's
23-year old age is consistent with the company's strategy to create value
through operating older, secondhand vessels.
n As a result, we now expect Euroseas to report 2007 and 2008 EPS of $1.61 and
$1.93 (from $1.50 and $1.59), respectively. We also raise our 2007 and 2008
EBITDA estimates to $54 million and $80 million (from $49 million and $57
million).
n We maintain our HOLD rating. -
Merrill ei pea täna üksi olema ...
The confessional period continues for the country's largest financial institutions. Today Washington Mutual (WM 35.28) said it expects to report a decline in third quarter net income of approximately 75% from the prior year quarter.
Briefingu kommentaar: With the fourth quarter earnings picture still cloudy in our estimation, we wouldn't be overweighting the stock, or the financial sector, in your portfolio. -
Brookfield Homes (BHS) says quarterly net orders fall 51%
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tänud Oliver,
kuidagi madalte kordajatega on price target estimate tuletatud
kas rate'de tõstmisest ei olnud midagi juttu? ESEA'l on suurem osa lepingute tähtajad lõppemas ning uued kokkulepped sünnivad oluliselt kõrgemate tariifidega (viimane +50%)
laevanduses, praegu kõik tõstavad tariife, kuna nõudlus on kasvanud - ka siin, meie õue peal, on seda tunda -
speedy, see note praktiliselt nii lühike ongi. Ma ise sektorit ei tunne ja ei taha seetõttu ka väga kommenteerida...
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oskab keegi kommenteerida, kas RIMM võis üle pingutada täna? Esmaspäeval sai downgrade, täna inline tulemustega pluss 14%?
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Uued tipud turgudel
Dow breaks above early week high of 14115 to set a new all time high (14116 +141) -
Bubble13, analüütikud ei ole päris ühte meelt, kuidas tulemustesse suhtuda. UBS tõstis näiteks täna hommikul RIMMi hinnasihti $125 peale... Aga eks ajal, mil turul tehakse uusi tippe, kipuvad liikumised võimenduma, sest müüjad ei taha/julge välja tulla.
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Soovitan julgelt see 5 minutit kulutada ja järgnevat videot vaadata. Praegusel pulliturul kulub värskenduseks visuaalse materjali abil vaadata, kuivõrd erinevalt on majad ikka hinnatud ning kuidas kohtutrepil eluasemeid müüakse. Ja lisaks on muusika taustaks ka täiesti okei ;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc -
WSJ on tulnud Henno ja Oliveri soovidele vastu ning koostanud tabeli illustreerimaks subslime write-down'e:
