Börsipäev 29. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times hinnangul on 2/3 ameeriklastest järgmisel aastal ootamas majandussurutist.
"Üldsus" muidugi on prognoosinud ajaloos mitmeid majandussurutisi, mida ei ole toimunud. Vana nali asja kohta käib nii: they predicted 9 of the past 4 recessions.
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You've Heard It Before -- Don't Fight the Fed
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/29/2007 7:16 AM EDT
Overcoming fear and worry can be accomplished by living a day at a time or even a moment at a time. Your worries will be cut down to nothing.
-- Robert Anthony
I can't recall a time when the potential problems for the market have ever been clearer: the worst real estate market in years, contracting credit availability, record write-offs by banks and brokers, soaring oil prices, a weak dollar and slowing earnings. Despite these many reasons to hide our cash under the mattress and stock up on canned food, the market keeps on working higher.
On Friday it was Microsoft (MSFT) that provided the catalyst to forget our worries and concerns. Even though its Vista product has been widely criticized for its many flaws, the company produced a surprisingly strong report.
At midday, it looked like we might stumble anyway, but for the third day in a row the market found its footing and reversed course. We closed out the week on a high note, and talk about how technology would lead the market higher dominated this weekend.
Just one week ago, after a very ugly Friday despite good earnings from Google (GOOG) , gloom and doom filed the air. We opened sharply down on Monday but then managed to rally most of the rest of the week. The worries that were in the air were quickly forgotten.
Although we have had some good reports from the likes of Microsoft, Apple (AAPL) , GOOG, Intel (INTC) etc., they have not done a very good job inspiring the broader market. Earnings season has definitely been mixed. The real reason this market has probably stayed strong and ignored the many fears and worries out there is the Fed. Market players are embracing the old adage not to fight the Fed. They seem quite confident that no matter what may hit us, the Fed will ride to the rescue.
This week we are going to see the market's reliance on the Fed put to the test. It is widely expected that it will cut interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday afternoon. Many are even looking for a more aggressive half-point cut. The market's attitude since it started anticipating the cut we had in September is that that we are going to be able to overcome all the obstacles we face and stocks will continue to tend upward.
I certainly worry about all the negatives out there, and as I studied charts this weekend, I was struck by the two-tiered nature of the market. We have had a small group of big-cap technology stocks leading us while much of the broader market has acted poorly. If you haven't been in the Googles and Apples, you have likely had a hard time keeping pace with the indices.
So how do we deal with this? The answer isn't to be bearish and anticipate the worst. We simply have to take things a day at a time. With the Fed rate cut coming up, there is very likely to be some good underlying support for this market. Trying to fight that in the shorter term is a great way to lose money.
One of these days, all the obvious negatives are going to matters but trying to predict when is impossible. If you had listened to the bears, you would have been out of this market long ago as they focused on the many negatives.
We have to take our cue from the market action and not from the worries and concerns of the pundits. It doesn't matter how logical or compelling they may be about why we are doomed. Until market players start acting pessimistic, there is little strategic benefit to anticipate that they will.
The reaction of the market after the Fed decision on Wednesday is going to be very important, but until then the bias remains to the upside. There will be plenty of folks telling us why we are going to fall apart, and we have to watch for signs that they are finally right, but this market is remarkably resilient and the uptrend remains our friend.
We have a positive start on tap as the positive attitude from Friday carries over. European and Asian stocks are strong. Gold is up strongly once again as the dollar struggles.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
On strong earnings/guidance: NGA +11.5%, NSANY +9.6%, BRKR +8.5%, RSH +8.0%, CHU +6.9%, WATG +6.1%, HUM +5.7%... Other news: ETQ +14.1% (resumes work on Mirador Environmental Impact Assessment Amendment), FMC +10.0% (co mentioned positively in Barron's), CNTF +10.0% (co announces the launch of Gallic, a Windows-based GSM/CDMA dual mode dual standby pocket PC phone), LNUX +9.4% (names Jonathan Sobel Group President, Media), SSRX +8.6% (profiled in New America section of IBD), AXL +7.9% (upgraded to Aggressive Buy at Keybanc- tgt raised to $34), RDN +5.6% (still checking for anything new), CHINA +4.8% (co and Mgame agree to negotiate to resolve differences over Yulgang).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: SILC -10.9%, SCHN -10.2%, ALJ -9.5%, KDN -6%, ASML -5.2%... On News: ODP -8.9% (announces delay to Q3 earnings, also downgraded at multiple firms), CRDC -6.7% (announces a 1.5 mln share common stock offering and also announces a 2.57 mln share common stock offering), CFC -3.1% (profit taking after Friday's 30%+ post-earnings move), NVDA -2.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight at Lehman), SNY -2.4% (Morgan Stanley lowered its ‘07 estimate, saying expectations are optimistic). -
Euroopa ja Aasia turud on reedese positiivsuse järel taas rohelised ning ka USA alustamas päeva ca +0.3% kõrgemal, Nasdaq isegi +0.5%.
Saksamaa DAX +0.67%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.64%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.68%
Hispaania IBEX +0.81%
Venemaa RTS +0.93%
Poola WIG +0.81%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.17%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.89%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.83%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3.52%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.03%
Tai Set +2.85%
India Sensex +3.82%
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Palju räägitud ja kardetud $100-line hind pole enam kaugel. Täna uus rekord naftalt - sedapuhku on jõutud $93-ni:
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Avasime Pro all uuesti investeerimisidee Fundtechi (FNDT), mis on idee sulgemise järgselt poolteist kuud tagasi dollari võrra madalamatele tasemetele tulnud - kuna ettevõte on oma tulemused avaldamas täna pärast turgu, muudab see idee avamise tavapärasest riskantsemaks, kuid konkurentide heade kommentaaride ning pikaajaliste toetavate trendide taustal olime valmis siiski positsiooni soetama. Konservatiivsemad investorid võiksid kaaluda kas kahes osas positsiooni soetamist või siis alternatiivina üldse alles tulemuste-järgselt aktsiat uuesti vaadata.
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nu, kõik haid nüüd siva Fundtechi kallale
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20.56 mina küll ühtegi tehingut sellise hinnaga ei leia
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kartell,
tekst loomulikult pikka aega valmis juba, aga selle sisestamine süsteemi võttis mõne minuti aega - nii et paar minutit võib nii-öelda delay'd olla. Aga hind sai muidu võetud viimane print nagu ikka... -
FNDT aktsia oma kriteeriumide järgi haimängu ei sobiks aga kuna nõudlus selle järele on suur siis on see lisatud
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täna tuleb ka PRAA tulemustega, võtsin mõni aeg tagasi ligi
võiks krediidiprobleemidest profiiti lõigata küll -
PRAA prelim $0.75 vs $0.80 Reuters consensus; revs $54.64 mln vs $55.68 mln Reuters consensus
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Fundtech lööb ootusi nii kasumi kui müügitulu osas - tulevikuprognoosid konsensusest pigem ülevalpool. Järelturul tehtud tehinguid hinnaga $17 - jään huviga homset konverentsikõnet ootama.
FNDT sees Q4 $0.19-0.24 vs $0.21 Reuters consensus; sees revs $29-30 mln vs $26.30 mln Reuters consensus
FNDT prelim $0.19 vs $0.18 Reuters consensus; revs $26.6 mln vs $25.78 mln Reuters consensus -
jep, nõrgapoolne kvartal,
sellest 4c special items, not comparible with previous year
samas osteti praeguse hinnataseme juurest 50$ tagasi 900k aktsiat kogu 1m tagasiostu programmist, see on ca. 6% aktsiatest
ning kasutasid võimalust soodsates tingumustes võlgasid 57m eest kokku osta
panus on tulevikul -
minu kommentaar siis PRAA kohta
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CF teeb korralikult :)
POT ja MOS said ka hoogu juurde!
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC Reports third quarter net
earnings of $86.5 million * Third quarter earnings per share
$1.52 * Third quarter sales rose 46 percent to $582.9 million *
Reuters Estimates third quarter earnings per share view $1.02,
revenue view $533.60 million -
CF oli mu teine börsihai panus, esimene vasikas, VDSI, läks aia taha, aga nüüd lootus taastumisele...
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tähendab siiski, et kogu 1m tagasiostu programm sai täidetud ja viimased 900k osteti tagasi 3Q jooksul
50$ aktsia eest on olnud juhtkonna jaoks hea hind ostmiseks -
päriskonto hoiab edasi, kahju et Haiga nihu läks ;-)
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samas, short interest võib veel imesid teha, homme paistab
ma lähen chatti -
kütsin ka kõik CFi alla börsihais keskpäeval. Laksasin kohe mängu alguses 2 väga karmi prohmakat, nii et nüüd kergelt plussis :)
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Olen taaskord tulemuste tabelit uuendamas - kel soov kiiret ülevaadet tähtsamate ettevõtete kasumi- ja müügitulu numbritest saada, siis visake pilk peale. Link tabelile siin.
