Börsipäev 9. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Peale eilset suurt langust on futuurid indikeerimas päeva algust USA turgudel 0.3-0.5% madalamatel tasemetel. Eile elasime üle päris suure paanikamüügi ning tavaliselt sellised asjad lisata ei jää. Samas ei näe 4-protsendilist miinust Nasdaqis just iga päev ning avanedes tugevas miinuses, on potentsiaali isegi põrkeks. S&P500 käitus päris tugevalt ning finantssektorist võis leida ettevõtteid, mis olid langusele juba immuunsed - BSC; MS, mistõttu ootaks ka lähiajal SPY-lt tugevamat käitumist kui Nasdaqilt. GOOG, RIMM, BIDU, AAPL jne on tõestanud, et praegusel turul ostame suure hulga riski ning väga vähe potentsiaali selle riski eest tasutud saada.
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SP500 futuurid indikeerivad juba rohkem kui protsendilist langust miinuspoolel...
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IBD kiidab BW-d:
IBD reports the co is a supplier of beryllium, alloy and precious metal products, and engineered material systems. You can find its materials in everything from hard disk drives and cell phones to helicopters and MRI equipment. The biggest growth driver of sales in the quarter and the first nine months of 2007 has been strong demand for its ruthenium-based magnetic media materials for the data storage mkt. This year, through Oct. 25, sales of the ruthenium-based magnetic materials used for this technology represented $115 mln, or over 70% of Brush's $160 mln in sales growth for the period. Dick Hipple, CEO of the co, says Brush doesn't play a big part in the housing and appliance mkts. It hasn't been impacted by the housing woes. "If the U.S. slid into recession and there was a downturn in consumer spending obviously it would have impact on us," he added. Meanwhile, followers expect Brush to grow at a rapid clip. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial see full-year earnings rising 54% to $2.17 a share, then a 32% rise in 2008. -
Kellele turu volatiilsed liikumised pole ikka veel piisavalt äkilised, siis abi võib leida börsil kaubeldavatest fondidest. Panen siia meeldetuletuseks mõned huvitavamad:
UYG - Ultra Financials
SKF - UltraShort Financials
QLD - Ultra QQQ ProShares
QID - UltraShort QQQ ProShares
SSO - Ultra S&P500 ProShares
SDS - UltraShort S&P500 ProShares
UWM - Ultra Russell 2000 Proshares
TWM - UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares -
Gmarketi (GMKT) täpsem kommentaar nüüd Pro all olemas. Natukene ka spekulatsioone selle kohta, millele analüütikud eriti tähelepanu ei ole pööranud - ehk natuke rohkem informatsiooni oodatava kvartali osas kui analüütikud täna kommenteerinud on : )
Soovitame lugeda ning oleme languse järel taas ostupoolel. Arvestades viimasel ajal toimunud aadrilaskmist turul, soovitame positsiooni soetada osadena. -
Gmarketit on kommenteerinud ka notablecalls
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/ -
natukene ka majandusstatistikat, mis annab taaskord kinnitust kerkivast inflatsiooniohust:
Trade Balance -$56.5 bln vs $58.5 bln consensus
Import Prices m/m +1.8% vs +1.2% consensus
Import Prices y/y +9.6% vs +9.0% consensus -
Saksamaa DAX +0.18%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.39%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.93%
Hispaania IBEX -0.67%
Venemaa MICEX -1.18%
Poola WIG -2.11%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.19%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.08%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.27%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.27%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.08%
Tai Set +0.06%
India Sensex -0.79%
USA on päeva alustamas punases ning miinus peaks S&P500-l kujunema ca -1% juurde ning QQQQ-l ca -1.8% juurde.
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Market Mood Spiraling Steadily Lower
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/9/2007 7:28 AM EST
The trick is in what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves happy. The amount of work is the same.
-- Carlos Castaneda
For quite some time, the prevailing market mood has been, "Yeah, we have nagging issues like this subprime mess and a slowing economy, but the Fed is on our side, the worldwide economy is good and we'll work through it." That positive thinking and persistent bullishness has kept the market strong for quite a while despite the insistence by the doomsayers that it's just a matter of time before the market finally realizes the depth and extent of the negatives out there and drops sharply.
In the last couple of days, the mood has finally begun to change. The big problem is that either we no longer are anticipating that the Fed is going to act as aggressively to bail us out or, more likely, the market is starting to question whether the Fed really does have the capacity to forestall the problems. Many of the issues we face aren't readily fixable by simply cutting rates, and the market seems to be wrestling with that.
In addition to questioning the willingness and potency of the Fed, we are being hit with a new wave of bad-debt announcements. Yesterday, talk continued to swirl about the ultimate level of writedowns. Some analysts are looking for numbers as high as $250 billion. The Financial Times is estimating we will see at least another $40 billion in losses.
This morning, the London FTSE Index was up nicely until talk began circulating that Barclays (BCS) was going to take some large credit losses. In the U.S., Wachovia Bank (WB) announced this morning it is increasing its loss reserve by more than half a billion dollars.
As I've written many times, the market hates uncertainty, and we have an awful lot of it when it comes to the subprime issue. If the problem could be accurately calculated, the market could deal with it, but that doesn't seem to be easily done, as this article by Floyd Norris in The New York Times describes.
Unfortunately, the change of mood isn't relegated to financial stocks. Yesterday we saw almost all the highflying, big-cap, high-beta technology stocks take hard hits. Stocks like Apple (AAPL) , Research In Motion (RIMM) , Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU) have been a safe haven for many. While the small-caps are actually negative this year, that group has been red-hot, but profit-taking kicked in and now the momentum-chasers are feeling a bit less confident that those stocks can continue to go endlessly higher while so many other areas of the market deal with extraordinary problems.
The most important thing of all is that the major indices are breaking down technically. The trend is turning down and the dip-buyers are not showing the same resolve we saw so often over the past year. The good news is that a breakdown at this point does set us up nicely for a rebound that will coincide with end-of-the-year positive seasonality, but counting on that at this point is very dangerous.
We have a weak start to the day. Overseas indices are lower and the debt issues are in the headlines once again. The market is badly in need of some strong dip-buyers soon to avoid shaking out more nervous bulls.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
On strong earnings/guidance: PCLN +14.5%, PWRD +10.0%, CTIC +7.9%, PCR +7.4%, NVDA +3.6%, DLB +3.6%... Other news: RTP +8.5% (strength attributed to rumor of counterbid and delay of "2.10 rule"), AMAT +5.1% (upgraded at JP Morgan and Citigroup), SCON +4.8% (signs definitive agreement for joint venture with Hunchun BaoLi Communications), SNP +4.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman - CNN.com), MRK +3.0%% (enters $4.85 bln agreement to resolve U.S. VIOXX product liability lawsuit), AMT +2.9% (to replace Alltel (AT) in the S&P 500), BRCM +1.3% (upgraded to Neutral at Amtech).
Allapoole avanevad:
On weak earnings/guidance: MDRX -28.5% (multiple downgrades following earnings), JASO -19.0%, JSDA -18.4%, GMKT -12.6%, IART -9.5%, MRVC -7.6%, QCOM -6.7%... U.S. Financials seeing moderate pressure this morning after WB commented on impact of market volatility on its financial results, saying it expects to increase our allowance for loan losses in the fourth quarter of 2007: WB -4.4%, LEH -3.8%, GS -3.3%, BSC -2.6%, JPM -2.6%, C -2.6%, WFC -1.5%... European banks under pressure after BCS fell on rumor of a writedown; BCS reportedly denied the rumor: BCS -6.3%, RBS -6.1%, ING -3.6%, UBS -3.4%... Solar names seeing profit-taking as JASO drops 19% following earnings: YGE -8.0%, TSL -6.2%, ESLR -4.3%, LMC -4.8%, STP -3.1%... Other news: CLWR -29.0% (Sprint Nextel and CLWR terminate WiMAX letter of intent), LEAP -29.4% (co announces restatement of prior period results), NDAQ -8.2% (co announces Hellman & Friedman Capital, H&F Executive Fund and H&F Entities sold ~23.5 mln shares), ALVR -4.9% (WiMax name gapping down in sympathy with CLWR). -
Finantssektor on kiirelt taastumas. Lehman, Citigroup, Bank of America rohelises, pakkudes nii tuge SPYle
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turg on ka liialt üle müüdud, küsimus kas lühiajaliselt, või algab ralli? pessimistid väljuvad-väljusid? ja tahavad hiljem rongile saada!
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Mõned sektorid tunduvad olevat ülemüüdud, turu kohta tervikuna ei ülteks isegi peale seda suurt langust. Asjad võivad tihtipeale muutuda koledamaks kui esmapilgul arvata võib. Finantssektoris on kindlasti tekkinud väike paanika ..
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Finantssektoris on lühikesed enne nädalalõppu katmas ning halbade uudiste peale aktsiate ostmine ütleb lühiperspektiivis nii mõndagi - volatiilsus ja närvilisus on aga jätkuvalt väga kõrged.
