Börsipäev 16. november
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Citigroup on peale eilseid tulemusi kiitmas endist LHV Pro investeerimisideed Global Sources (GSOL). Hinnasiht $45. Praegustelt hinnatasemetelt tähendaks see pea 70-protsendilist tõusu. Alibaba tõttu ilmselt tuleb GSOLile aina rohkem tähelepanu.
Kui läänemaailma ja ida vahelised suhted aina tihedamaks muutuvad, on Global Sourcesil kõvasti tööd ees seismas ning nende kliendibaas aina laieneb.
Reiterate Buy: Expanding China Offerings — The key development is GSOL'sgearing up to make a big push into the China market, both by enhancing itsInternational marketplace (via Global Sources Online 2.0); and by launching adomestic B2B site later this quarter. This comes on the heels of continued strong growth from mainland China and Online: At US$19.9m, mainland Chinarevs grew +28% YoY and accounted for 59% of total revs, while Online revswere US$19.7m (+18% YoY). Certified active buyers increased 19% QoQ to 647k
Trade Shows: October Fairs very strong — The October fairs sold over 7,500booths and turned profitable for the first time, and profitability should continue toimprove into 2008. After only two years, GSOL is now the #2 player in the HK market.
New domestic China B2B eCommerce site to launch soon — In 4Q, GSOL willlaunch an online Chinese language site aimed at the domestic B2B market, a huge new opportunity, given there are 42m SMEs in China.
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LHV Pro kasutajatele tuttav Qiao Xing Mobile(QXM) teatas oma tulemused ning ootusi suudeti kasumi osas lüüa ($0.34 vs $0.32) - müügitulu osas jäädi aga alla, kuid kuna aktsia on nii õhukeselt kaetud, on raske ka sellesse konsensusootusesse täie tõsidusega suhtuda.
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Eile teatas oma tulemused ka Starbucks (SBUX). Esmakordselt langes ettevõtte külastatavus USAs. Lisaks protsendilisele negatiivsele külastatavuse kasvule langetati ka EPS prognoosi 2008. aastaks (kõrge piima maksumuse ja aeglustuva SSS trendi tõttu). UK-s on Starbucks pidanud oma "kohvitassi" hinda läinud aastal kohvihindade pärast kergitama kaks korda ning päris mitmed tarbijad on öelnud, et nemad enam toodet endale lubada ei saa. Miljöö jne on igati tore kuid nüüd lubavad nad endale Starbucksis käimist harvematel kordadel. Pilgud on suunatud rohkem low-end toodetele.
Konkurents on võtmas võimust. $4-dollariline kohvi rõõmu tarbijale ei valmista ning McDonalds näitas oktoobris oma kohvitoodete müügiga 39-protsendilist kasvu. McDonaldsi iced coffee pakub tugevat konkurentsi ning firma plaanib 2008. aastal tutvustada lattesid ja muid jooke, mis ilmselt kasvatab konkurentsi veelgi. Nõudlus, konkurents ja inflatsioon on täna tugevamad mõjurid kui Starbucksi juhtkonna tegevus.
Starbucks, mis on oma kohvikute arvu nii vägevalt kasvatanud, et lausa toppinud uusi avatavaid putkasid vanadest üle tee, plaanib aga edaspidi tugevat kasvu. 1600 uut poodi järgmisel aastal ning SSS parandamine on päris kõva ülesanne juhtkonnale. TV reklaamidest, uutest maitsetest jne võib olla vähe kasu, kuna bränditeadlikkus praegustel turgudel on juba niigi üpriski tugev.
Tugev bränd on samas asja võti. Kuigi lühiajaliselt väänleb firma keerulises situatsioonis (esmakordne negatiivne külastatavuse kasv on päris suur ohumärk mõneks ajaks), on pikemas perspektiivis tegemist päris huvitava firmaga. -
Futuurid on alustamas päeva üpriski nullilähedaselt, kõikudes nii üles- kui allapoole neutraalsuspiiri.
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Deutsche Bank tõstis oma vaadet naftafutuuride osas, prognoosides 2008a WTI hinda 80 dollaril barreli eest ja 2010. aasta futuure kauplemas 65 dollaril (varasema 60 USD asemel). "Excess re-investment in oil supply is not possible, either because of governments, geology or over-crowding. In that instance, buy oil price leverage and sell refining.”
Analüüsimaja upgrade’is mitmete naftatootjatate reitinguid: Chevron ja ConocoPhillips said “hoia” soovituse (varem soovitati müüa). Soovitatakse osta (hoia) alahinnatud Marathon Oili. Lisaks viimasele kuuluvad top plays nimekirja Occidental Petroleum, Hess ja Suncor Energy.
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Long USO (või XLE), short OIH?
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Väga huvitav kommentaar bloombergis: Bloomberg.com reports that for the first time in at least a decade, the world's biggest financial institutions are paying more to borrow in the corporate bond market than the average company.
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Seda, et subprime varade mahakirjutamine on finantssektori jaoks vaid tuleviku võrrandi üks pool, näitab hästi tänane Goldman Sachsi kommentaar, et uute laenude väljaandmine võib globaalsete krediidituru probleemide tõttu kokku väheneda kuni $2 triljoni võrra. See on juba hiigelsumma, mis mõjutaks USA majandust tugevalt ning vajaks Fedi sekkumist olukorra normaliseerimiseks.
Bloomberg reports the slump in global credit mkts will force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion, triggering the risk of a "substantial recession'' in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs. Losses related to record U.S. home foreclosures using a "back-of-the-envelope'' calculation may be as high as $400 bln for financial cos, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman wrote in a report dated yesterday. The effects may be amplified tenfold as cos that borrowed to finance their investments scale back lending, the report said. "The likely mortgage credit losses pose a significantly bigger macroeconomic risk than generally recognized,'' Hatzius wrote. "It is easy to see how such a shock could produce a substantial recession'' or "a long period of very sluggish growth,'' he wrote. Goldman's forecast reduction in lending is equivalent to 7% of total U.S. household, corporate and govt debt, hurting an economy already beset by the slowing housing mkt.
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Fed's Poole casts doubt on need for more rate cuts
Fed's Poole: Current forecast sees weak 4Q, then rebound
Fed's Poole calls current inflation 'low and stable'
Fed's Poole still does not expect recession -
Morgan Stanley upgradeb Hewlett Packardit (HPQ), andes hinnasihiks $60 - see call on eelturul juba päris suurt huvi tekitanud. Põhjused järgmised:
• Most diversified revenue base in our group
• Strong balance sheet and cost cutting reduce earnings volatility
• Secular growth in PC market and stronger software portfolio underappreciated as fundamental drivers
• Strong October quarter earnings report (11/19/07) and analyst day (12/11/07) serve as near-term catalysts
Samal ajal on muutunud MSi arvates huvitavaks veel STX ja IBM. Eemale soovitatakse aga hoida sellistest firmadest nagu LXK, NTAP, ISLN, DELL, NCR.
We are concerned about stocks with large exposure to softer markets (U.S., financial services, retail), weaker balance sheets and/or little room for operating leverage on lower revenue growth. We worry about high relative US revenue exposure at ISLN (enterprise), NCR (financial services), LXK (consumer) and Dell (enterprise and consumer).
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Garmin otsustas anda alla pakkumisesõjas TeleAtlase aktsiatele ning loovutab võidu TomTomile. Võidujooks algas aasta esimesel poolel, kui TomTom tegi 2.8 mld dollari suuruse avapaugu. Sseejärel tuli mängu Garmin, kelle panuseks oli 3.3 mld USD, pärast mida käis TomTom välja 4.2 mld suuruse hinna.
Uudis peaks positiivselt mõjuma Nokiale, sest Garmin teatas seejuures, et pikendab koostöölepingut kuue aasta võrra oma senise partneri Navteqiga. Viimane on ainuke suurem konkurent TeleAtlasele. Kui Nokia 8.1 mld dollariline Navteqi ülevõtmine leiab heakskiidu, hakkavad Garmini tulud jooksma Soome firma taskutesse. GRMN eelturul 24% üleval, NOK +1%.
Merrill upgraded GRMN to Buy from Sell -
FedEx (FDX) tunnetab lõpuks tugevamalt kütusehindade mõjusid ning langetab prognoose. Aktsia kaupleb eelturul üle 5% madalamal. UPS võib samuti veel alla tulla. Kommentaarid ka majanduskeskkonna osas.
Co lowers Q2 EPS guidance, sees EPS of $1.45-1.55, compared to previous guidance of $1.60-1.75, vs $1.70 consensus. Co lowers Y07 EPS guidance, sees EPS of $6.40-6.70, compared to previous guidance of $6.70-7.10, vs $6.84 consensus. CFO says, "Since we provided earnings guidance for the second quarter in September, our fuel costs have increased more than eight percent, or $85 million. While we have dynamic fuel surcharges in place, they cannot keep pace in the short-term with rapidly rising fuel prices. In addition, less-than-truckload freight trends in the FedEx Freight segment remain weak, despite economic signs that the decline in U.S. industrial production has hit bottom. We are taking prudent steps to reduce expenses, and are reviewing our capital investment plans for further reductions."
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Saksamaa DAX -0.25%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.52%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.19%
Hispaania IBEX +0.38%
Venemaa MICEX -0.95%
Poola WIG -0.21%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.57%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.95%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.91%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.92%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.54%
Tai Set -0.95%
India Sensex -0.44%
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FedExi kommentaaris jääb silma järgmine lause: the decline in U.S. industrial production has hit bottom
Samal ajal tuleb täna majandusstatistikat: Industrial production -0.5% vs +0.1% consensus. Olukord on ehk natukene kehvemgi kui paljud firmajuhid seda näevad. See aga võib mõjutada omakorda edasisi investeeringuid päris palju. UPS langetas eelmisel kvartalil Capex prognoose. Üks majandusindikaator muidugi palju ei ütle, kuid huvitav jälgida siiski. -
Big Money Should Fuel a Bounce Into Year-End
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/16/2007 7:46 AM EST
We are continually faced by great opportunities brilliantly disguised as insoluble problems.
-- Lee Iacocca
The market mood has turned gloomy and dark in recent days as bad-debt issues, a rotten real estate market and a slowing economy finally start to matter to market players. These issues aren't surprising new developments. They have been out there for a long time, but suddenly they have started to matter, and now the negativity and pessimism is feeding on itself.
Mood shifts like this are inevitable in the stock market, but the good news is that they eventually lead to great opportunities. The mood will certainly shift again and if you are patient and ready to act when that happens, you can profits greatly.
The increased negativity we are suffering from now, along with the upcoming positive seasonality, is creating the potential for a very tradable rally within the next week. The market is working to price in the continued flow of bad news, and the deteriorating technical condition is washing out weak holders and raising the already high levels of cash on the sidelines.
This has been a frustrating year for many money managers because of the narrowness of the market, and they will be anxious to make up performance in the six weeks of trading we have left. If the market does start to rebound, look for the big money to be quick to chase it.
What the individual investor needs to do at this point is simply be ready to act. You need to be emotionally prepared to jump in when it looks like conditions are ripe, and you need to be tactically ready and know exactly what actions you are going to take. Preparation at this point will pay off nicely once the stars align.
Of course, a rally is no certainty, and we need to keep an open mind. That is why it is important not to act prematurely and let your hopes drive you to take action that isn't justified by the conditions. However, it is important to envision potential scenarios and to have a plan on how you will deal with them.
The key technical levels to watch right now are the lows we hit on Monday morning, which for the Nasdaq is also the 200-day simple moving average. If that level is breached, I expect to see stops triggered and a wave of selling to hit. However, I expect that to be the purge that leads to a good tradable bounce. I'm sitting on a lot of cash, working on buy lists and waiting to see how things develop
We have a slightly positive start to the day as overseas markets were mostly negative overnight. The news wires are fairly quiet. Gold is bouncing a bit from a big hit yesterday, and oil is stable.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JBX +13.2%, TEL +4.2%, QXM +3.2%, A +2.4% (announces $2 bln repurchase program), INTU +1.5%....Other news: GRMN +20.2% (extends agreement with NAVTEQ; does not intend to pursue its offer for Tele Atlas), DSCO +13.7%(response to Surfaxin approvable letter deemed complete by FDA), CSIQ +12.3% (announces new contract to deliver 60MW solar modules for projects in Spain), PWER +11.3% (wins infringement lawsuit on digital player and upholds validity of patents), EXAS +11.1% (announces results for colorectal cancer screening), ARII +7.2% (Director and 10% owner Icahn buy 164,616 more shares), PBR +5.4%, DRYS +4.2% (target raised at Cantor Fitzgerald), LDK +3.9% (Needham believes grossly undervalued), AMD +3.5%(announces $622 mln investment by Mubadala Development), ACM +3.1% (Cramer makes positive comments), CBI +2.6% (Weekday Trader article mentions - Barrons), CFC +2.4%, YHOO +2.2%, TOT +1.9%, BIDU +1.9%, RTP +1.8% (UK rumors that BHP would offer 3.5 of its shares for each RTP share), TSL +1.7%, CSCO +1.7% (authorizes up to $10 bln stock repurchase), FCX +1.4%, EMC +1.3%, PWR +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments)....Analyst upgrades: CNTF +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at Jeffries), STAR +3.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), IOSP +2.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), MRO +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), BRCM +1.7% (upgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), HE +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), SUN +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), EXPE +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), CB +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), HPQ +1.0% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), HNT +0.9% (upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to earnings/guidance: NCTY -14.7%(also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), SNS -11.0%, CHRD -9.0%, STV -8.7%, SBUX -8.3%(misses estimates and downgraded to Neutral at Baird), DITC -7.7%, MSCC -5.5%, FDX -5.2%(stock was downgraded earlier this morning at Baird), ADSK -4.2%, KSS -3.4%(also target cut at Credit Suisse), CRM -2.1%, MSCC -1.3%(also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), UNCA -1.3%....Other news: ACTG -36.4%(received jury verdict in its patent infringement trial with MSFT; patent not infringed and suit invalid), CGV -7.4%, HBAN -6.7%, IFX -3.1%(target cut in Europe at Exane BNP Paribus, ests cut at Goldman - Bloomberg), AAUK -2.4%, FIG -1.5%(Cramer recomends selling)....Analyst downgrades: GME -2.6%(downgraded to Market Perform at Piper Jaffray), UNCA -1.3%(downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia). -
UPSi nõrkus võidakse isegi üles osta, kuna firma tuli oma tulemustega 23. oktoobril välja ning vaatamata USA nõrkusele olid rahvusvahelised turud tugevad. Samuti ei ole kütusekulud enam uudiseks.
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Millest tingitud STV -8,7% oskab keegi tark öelda?
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Leiko, STV on tulemuste peale all. Ma arvan, et prognoosides asi.
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UPS on praktiliselt püstloodis üles biditud samal ajal kui turg nõrkust näitas:
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FNM oma konverentsikõnel väga optimistlik ei ole. Küsimuste peale mark-to-marketi, markdownide jms kohta öeldakse, et olukord on muutumas hullemaks.
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Yahoo'd (YHOO) on jällegi liigutamas kuulujutud võimalikust ülevõtmisest Microsofti (MSFT) poolt. Spekulatsioonide aluseks on Microsofti internetidivisioni juhi Kevin Johnsoni eilne sõnavõtt, kus ta lubas kasvatada ettevõtte internetiotsingute turuosa 10%-lt 30%-ni. Suure tõenäosusega on see reaalselt saavutatav vaid läbi Yahoo ostmise. Teemat on lähemalt lahanud oma blogis endine sektori staaranalüütik Henry Blodget (Link). Aktsia täna +5%.
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Ei näe küll põhjust, miks MSFT peaks oma kehvale otsinguplatvormile kalli raha eest teise kehva juurde ostma. MSFT-s on piisavalt inimressurssi, et 3-5 aasta jooksul (Kevin Johnsoni poolt seatud eesmärk) oma jõududega midagi senisest asjalikumat korda saata. Usun, et MSFT peab Internetis kaalukamaks saamisel (k.a. otsing ja reklaam) silmas hoopis oma Live platvormi, sellele ehitatud rakendusi ning selle integreerimist harjumuspärase töölauaga.
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... ja siis loomulikult veel Facebook.
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Päris huvitav info RM'ist. Tundub, et majadeehitajatel on probleeme endil piisavalt käes, et iga-aastaste ürituste jaoks praegu aega raisata oleks patt ning detsembrisse planeeritud konverents on tühistatud.
I just learned that the annual homebuilder conference at the New York Society of Security Analysts has been cancelled for this December. This was supposed to be the 11th annual conference. Dave Peltier joked to me a month ago about whether there would be a 12th next year! By the way, the companies that were supposed to present were HOV, MTH, TOL and SPF (which is being hounded by liquidity issues, as I explained in an article earlier today on TheStreet.com). The moderator was supposed to be Thomas Kranz of GMAC (another entity not in great shape).
