Börsipäev 3. detsember
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Ongi detsember juba kätte jõudnud - eile oli esimene advent ja ega jõuludki enam kaugel ole. :) Aktsiaturud keerlevad omasoodu aga edasi ning nafta, housing, jaemüüjad ja Föderaalreserv on lähemal ajal ühtedeks peamisteks jututeemadeks.
Morgan Stanley on täna väljas väga agressiivse kommentaariga maailma nafta hindade osas, mis näitab, et viimase aja hüpe nafta hindades ei jää ajutiseks, vaid et hinnad ongi viidud nii-öelda uuele tasemele, kuhu püsima jäädakse. Nimelt on MS tõstmas toornafta pikaajalist hinnasihti $65 pealt barreli eest kogunisti $85-ni! Seni on peetud kõrgeid nafta hindasid spekulatiivsetel põhjustel üles ostetuteks ja paljud turuosalised (kusjuures sarnaselt Föderaalreservile, kes inflatsiooni arvutades energia ja toidu hinnad oma valemitest välja jätab) on olnud arvamusel, et küll nafta pikas perspektiivis odavneb oma pikaajalise hinna juurde. Tänane reaalsus on aga, et see ‘müstiline pikaajaline’ hind on Morgan Stanley arvates aga siin ja praegu meil juba olemas ning allapoole kukkumiseks ruumi palju pole.
Selline pikaajaline nafta hind muudaks aga enamuse täna turul olevaid energia-ettevõtteid ajaloolisi valuatsioone vaadates odavaks (ca 25% 3-aasta keskmistest kasumikordajatest odavam). MS küll tunnistab, et lühemas perspektiivis võib nafta hinnale negatiivselt mõjuda jahenev USA majandus, kuid arvab, et need, kes ootavad hinna kukkumist nt $50-$60 juurde, peavad oma negatiivsuses pettuma.
Kui Morgan Stanley tänane prognoos on õige ja aja jooksul ka teised majad seda tunnistama hakkavad, peaksid energiasektori ettevõtted pikas perspektiivis üpriski tulusad olema. Et siis oma 'pensioni-portfelli' tasuks ikkagi nafta-aktsiaid lisada ka veel tänaste tasemete pealt?
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"Ei Hugo, ei..., mitte veel!"
Sellisena võib kokku võtta Venezuela valimisotsuse Hugo Chavezi poolt välja käidud konstitutsiooni muudatuse kava kohta, mille heakskiitmisel oleks Venetsueelast saanud Kuuba-taoline ühe juhiga sotsialismiriik (millel on palju naftat ja kes on alati olnud ülikõrgete energiahindade poolt). Hugo ütles ka enne valimisi, et kui plaan heaks kiidetakse, on ta valmis riiki juhtima vähemalt aastani 2050. Plaani vastu oli 51% valijatest ja poolt 49%... -
Saksamaa DAX -0.17%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.41%
Inglismaa F -0.63%
Hispaania IBEX +0.02%
Venemaa MICEX -0.42%
Poola WIG -0.40%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.33%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.05%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.08%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.73%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.66%
Tai Set -2.21%
India Sensex +1.24%
USA on tänast kauplemispäeva alustamas väikese miinusega. Futuurid on käinud nii pluss- kui miinuspoolel, kuid enne avanemist pigem allapoole vajunud. Suuremate kõikumiste lõppemist lähiajal aktsiaturgudel ette veel ei näeks.
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Can the Fed Ride to Rescue Once Again?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/3/2007 8:13 AM EST
Power always protects the good of some at the expense of all others.
-- Thomas Merton
As we kick off the final month of 2007, the big question in the air is whether the Fed has the power to once again drive this market back up. The Fed's 0.5-percentage-point interest rate cut on Sept. 18 did an excellent job of saving the market from the August breakdown and sent us back to the highs we hit earlier in the year. Can the Fed pull off that feat once again?
Since the last cut and the subsequent rally, the market has been hit with news that billions in bad debt is going to be written off. The market could probably handle that, especially with the help of a Fed that is pumping up liquidity; unfortunately, we still don't really know the extent of the bad-debt issue. No one really knows the true worth of many of the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) out there, and it seems that every day there is more speculation about that the ultimate fallout may be.
In addition to the bad-debt issue, the market seems to be increasingly worried that we are heading for a recession. The bad-debt issue and poor real estate market have hurt the mood that was so positive for so long, and now it is pessimism that seems to be the default position of the market.
That brings the Fed and its Dec. 11 meeting to the forefront. There are many questions as to whether the Fed really can do anything to stop the credit crisis, but that isn't the question we need to focus on. What we need to focus on is whether the Fed has the capacity to lift the mood of the market and help create some buying momentum into the meeting a week from tomorrow.
One of the things that may help the Fed at this point is that we are in a seasonally positive time of the year, and many big fund managers are anxious to tack on some performance as the year winds down. If those factors can shore up the mood, we have a good chance of some upside action in the near term.
Unfortunately the technical condition of the indices and many individual charts is not very good. We had a pretty good bounce on average volume last week, but we are now running into resistance, and it is going to be tough to keep on going up without some sort of backing and filing. A lot of folks who were caught in the early November slide are now in position to escape with more mild losses, and that is what resistance levels are all about.
We have a tricky week in front of us. If the market embraces the Fed and starts to believe that maybe we have seen the worst of the bad-debt news, that could give us some good upside momentum. On the other hand, the charts are not offering very good setups, and that is going to make it tough to find good entries unless you are willing to buy things that are a bit extended after last week's bounce.
We have a slightly positive start this morning, but the mood is quite subdued and the news flow slow. Oil is down again, and overseas markets are leaning negative.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: UAPH +25.4% (acquired by AGU for $39/share), ATVI +21.9% (ATVI and Vivendi Games announce plan to merge; Vivendi Games will be converted into ATVI shares at $27.50)... Other news: ONT +20.0% (UL has selected ONT's ON2 Flix Publisher to provide enterprise video encoding and delivery services), SKM +10.5% (Reuters reports SKM agreed to buy stake in broadband provider HanaroTelecom for $1.18 bln in cash), TRB +3.1% (FCC approved ownership waiver from regulators), ERIC +2.2% (selected by DT for 5 year managed service contract), BGC +2.2% (positive remarks in Barron's, Don Hayes recommendation), WPPGY +2.1% (DELL makes advertising pact of $4.5 bln), SAP +1.5% (declines comment on mkt talk of possible MSFT bid for IT - Reuters), TC +1.5% and GMO +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MHS +1.5% (ABC signs letter of intent with MHS as prime vendor for mail-order wholesaler services), TIF +1.1% (announces strategic alliance with Swatch for watch distribution), PSPT +1.1% (confirms receipt of unsolicited proposal to be acquired for $15/share), DT +1.0% (selects ERIC for 5 year managed service contract), IBM +1.0% (announces repurchase of up to $1 bln of stock)... Analyst upgrades: NFLX +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Piper Jaffray), PCU +2.1% (initiated with Overweight at HSBC), TIE +1.6% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup), CBEY +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: PAY -16.7% (anticipates restatement of 2007 quarterly financial results, reduces previously reported pre-tax income amounts), CHG -3.0% (revises Y07 guidance), UNH -2.7%, ABC -1.8%, MET -1.4% (issues guidance)... Other news: UFS -21.9% (Governor of Saskatchewan withdraws from memorandum understanding), PRKR -18.6% (mentioned negatively article in Barron's; this morning co issued response to article to "correct errors and factual inaccuracies and to clarify information"), CHU -6.1% (still checking), RTP -3.7% and BHP -1.6% (RTP CEO says BHP's offer 'far away' from true valuation - Daily Telegraph), UNG -3.0% (still checking), AMGN -2.4% (announces interim results of Aranesp), AAUK -2.4% (rumors of potential merger between AAUK and Xstrata - Guardian Unlimited), WEN -2.4% (Peltz unlikely to get funding for WEN's bid from C and MER - Reuters), NKE -1.3% (Reuters reports Adidas rose with mkt talk that NKE and Asics may be interested in the co)... Analyst downgrades: ETFC -12.0% (downgraded to Sell at BofA; Cramer makes bearish comments on MadMoney), AG -1.8% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel), RIMM -1.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan). -
Eddy Elfenbeim toob RealMoney's välja väga huvitava fakti. Nimelt 3 kuud tagasi oodati 4. kvartali kasumikasvu S&P500 ettevõtetelt +8.8%, täna on ootuseks +1.1%. Drastiline kukkumine ikka... Muideks 3 kuu taguste tasemetega on aktsiaindeksid täna nullis.
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Nafta teeb jätkuvalt trikke ja soovitan sellel ikka silm peal hoida. Tõusev nafta pole turu sõber...eriti kui mingil põhjusel peaks taaskord psühholoogilise $100-lise hinna ligi jõudma.
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Natukene huvitavat infot kullaga kauplejatele (Euroopa Keskpank oli oma varasid reedel ümber balansseerimas ja $1 miljardi eest kulda müümas):
The ECB announced it dumped 42 tons of gold Friday as part of its asset-rebalancing effort. That's just over $1 billion, which in the world of foreign exchange (and the world of central bankers) is piddling. But in the world of gold, it's massive.
And the announcement may go some way to explain weak bullion prices on Friday, i.e., the market was swamped with a large seller.
Investors need to realize that by the end of this week, liquidity in the gold market will be dramatically reduced through to New Year -- it's nothing sinister, just a function of the impact of holidays on what is a relatively thin market at the best of times. Unless a war unexpectedly breaks out, anyone wanting to move a substantial volume of gold will likely try to do it not later than the end of this week.
That could lead to a bumpy few sessions in precious metals. So, hold on tight! -
http://www.kauppalehti.fi/4/i/uutiset/etusivu/uutinen.jsp?oid=8190
Citigroup räägib, et raha voolab USA aktsiafondidest välja, septembris 4,13 miljardit, oktoobris 3,71 miljardit dollarit. Kuue kuu jooksul kokku 42,03 miljardit $. Raha voolab bondifondidesse, neisse on lisandunud oktoobris 11,7 miljardit $.
