Börsipäev 17. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile avasime LHV Pro all uue idee, aktsia peaks nii mõnelegi investorile ja kauplejale juba tuttav olema. Võimalus on osa saada IPTV ja sellega koos digibokside kiirest levikust. Aktsia volatiilsus on suur, seega oleme riskitaset hinnanud kõrgeks.
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Aasia turud on liikunud erisuunaliselt. Jaapani Nikkei +2.1%, HongKong +1.2%, Shangai -2.64%.
Samsung Elektronics lendas +5.7% Merrill Lynch kergitas soovitust "neutraalselt" tasemele "osta".
Sharpi aktsia kallines +4.5% pärast Goldman Sachsilt ostusoovituse saamist. -
Sun Microsystems (JAVA) ostab Rootsi päritolu MySQL firma ligi $1 mld eest. MySQL ei ole börsil kaubeldav aktsia.
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Nokia üleeile avaldatud teade sulgeda Saksamaal Bochumis tehas ning koondada ligi 4000 töötajat kütab kohalike poliitikute ja ametühingutegelaste kirgi. Bochum on Saksamaa viimane mobiiltelefonide valmistamise tehas. Viimase paari aasta jooksul on sulgenud oma tehased Siemens ja Motorola. Sakslased aga mäletavad Electroluxi tehase sulgemist ning firma halb maine ja toodete ostuboikott kestab siiani.
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Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) today reported a net loss from continuing operations for the full year 2007 of $8.6 billion , or $10.73 per diluted share, significantly below net earnings from continuing operations of $7.1 billion , or $7.17 per diluted share for 2006. Merrill Lynch's net loss for the full year 2007 was $7.8 billion , or $9.69 per diluted share, significantly below net earnings of $7.5 billion , or $7.59 per diluted share for 2006. Net revenues for 2007 were $11.3 billion , down 67% from $33.8 billion in 2006, while the 2007 pre-tax loss from continuing operations was $12.8 billion compared to pre-tax earnings from continuing operations of $9.8 billion for 2006.
Net revenues were materially impacted by a weaker business environment and net write-downs that included $7.9 billion in the third quarter and $11.5 billion in the fourth quarter -
Ja futuurid teevad jõnksu alla hooga.
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LDK Solar expects net profit to top $200 mln in 2008 vs. own forecast of over $150 mln in 2007, according to executive
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Ja SPY nulli juures tagasi.
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Ja varsti tuleb kindlasti Piper Jaffray välja oma üllitisega, mis arvab, et LDK executive on oma numbritega päris lolliks läinud ja aktsia kukub kolinal
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Enne turgude avamist käib selline lõuga andmine, et lust vaadata. Varsti törts makrot otsa ja läheb jälle andmiseks. :)
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Initial Claims on oodatust väiksem - see on see, mis negatiivse sentimendga turul head meelt valmistab. Majade turu oodatust väiksemad numbrid on juba igapäevased.
Building Permits 1068K vs 1135K consensus
Housing Starts 1006K vs 1145K consensus
Initial Claims 301K vs 331K consensus -
Konservatiivsetele investoritele: Coca-Cola(KO) lisati täna Goldman Sachsi Conviction Buy-listi.
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Peeter Ekspressis. Muuseas tundub, et Peeter on teatud määral kriitikat kuulda võtnud. Kui oled sellistel mullistuvatel turgudel "osta" öelnud, pead sa paratamatult olema valmis ütlema ka "müü". Kasvõi stop-loss stiilis.
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Turud on kirjud ja suuri liikujaid päris palju.
Saksamaa DAX +0.50%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.35%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.58%
Hispaania IBEX +0.74%
Venemaa MICEX -1.88%
Poola WIG +0.12%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.07%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.72%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.63%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.30%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.08%
Tai Set +2.56%
India Sensex -0.84%
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Two Choices Here
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/17/2008 8:38 AM EST
Perhaps all pleasure is only relief.
-- William S. Burroughs
This market is due for some temporary relief from the pounding it has been suffering. The only question is what the catalyst will be that produces it.
For a while yesterday, it looked like a bounce in financials might finally lead to a positive day for the indices, but a final-hour selloff put us firmly back in the red. Many traders have been looking for the announcement of huge write-offs by banks and brokers as the purging that is needed to put in a bottom. Unfortunately, too many market players seem to be thinking that way, and the bounce in the group began even before the news was announced.
The problem with a flood of bad news as a catalyst that washes out the sellers and produces a bounce is that it seems very unlikely that we have seen an end to the bad news. We are clearly in grave danger of falling into a recession. In fact, we may well already be in the early stages of one. Not only is it occurring in the U.S. but the worldwide economy is seeing more and more signs of a significant slowdown.
This isn't some event that will be quickly priced in by the market and forgotten. It is going to be a painful process that is going to play out for a while. However, we are going to see some periods of relief when hope is in the air and things don't seem quite so bleak.
An interest rate cut by the Fed and some sort of fiscal move by Congress are indeed coming soon, and those events should provide a little relief for a while. The problem is that everyone knows this is coming, and no one expects this to quickly and easily solve all our problems.
We basically have two choices at this juncture. We take the shorter-term view and try to play a temporary relief bounce that is likely to come sooner or later, or we take the longer-term view, stay defensive and don't bother trying to catch what will likely be only a temporary recovery.
I would be extremely surprised if this market has seen its lows for 2008, and I expect that shorting is going to be very rewarding for a while. We will have some good upside trades as well, but it is all about timing. We are so beat up right now, and the announcement of some sort of fiscal and monetary help is rapidly approaching, which means we is going to give us some sort of spike.
This is an extremely tricky right now, because it is so dangerous to press shorts with the catalyst for a relief bounce so close, but it would be very foolish to think that this market is going to produce a lasting turn at this juncture.
My approach right now is to be heavily in cash and make very short-term trades. I expect I'll be looking harder for short positions after the Fed moves, but for now my main concern is protecting capital and not getting caught leaning the wrong way when a relief bounce hits.
We have a fairly flat open at the moment as we await data. Overseas markets are struggling, and after the poor close yesterday, sentiment is poor.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: COSI + 8.5%, LDK + 5.1% (also discloses ten-year contract to supply multicrystalline solar wafers to Neo Solar Power), CAL + 3.9%, BBT + 3.6%, PH + 3.5% (also awarded $2 bln fuel package and hydraulic system for new airbus A350 XWB aircraft), AMTD + 2.2%, BGG + 1.9%, ELY + 1.8% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia), NRP + 1.8%, GKK + 1.7%, KMP + 1.2%, APH + 1.2%, CTBK + 1.1%... Other news: WCI +18.9% (announces completion of amendment to revolving credit facility and term loan), JAVA +9.5% (still checking), FRPT +7.5% (receives $74 mln integrated logistics support contract from U.S. Marine Corps), CHINA +7.3% (subsidiary CDC Software expects record revenue for 4Q07), BEXP +6.2% (announces 3 Bakken discoveries and acreage growth), ADCT +3.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CHL +3.5% (China Tietong will not be merged into CHL, according to rumor - Pacific Epoch), HMSY +2.5% (will replace MOGN in the S&P SmallCap 600 on 1/22),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: LOGI -6.2%, FHN -5.3%, PBKS -3.5%, CMA -3.0%, IGT -2.8%, HBAN -2.7%, MER -2.5%, PNC -2.4%, AEE -2.1%, NVS -1.9%, CLC -1.3%... Select agriculture stocks showing continued weakness: AGU -1.4%, TRA -1.4%, MOS -1.3%... Other news: ABK -15.2% (ratings being reviewed by Moody's for possible downgrade), MBI -10.4% (down in sympathy with ABK), ARO -4.3% (discloses that the SEC has issued a formal order of investigation), SPR -1.1% (assesses impact of 787 schedule shift), AAUK -1.3% (in talks over $5.5 bln stake in MMX iron ore assets - DJ)... Analyst downgrades: MSTR -5.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Suntrust), SPWR -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), CAS -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Keybanc), HOG -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), MFE -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), DAI -1.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Bernstein), JSDA -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), ADBE -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS). -
Peetri jutu laiendamiseks - on olemas ka sellised investorid , kes sisenesid buumi alguses kinnisvarasse ja tulid sealt välja õigeaegselt , müüsid oma aktsiad tippudes , olles vahepeal rahulikus rahas ja rahulolus :) Sellegipoolest võivad nad ka praegu puhta südametunnistusega olla pullid , sest kui ostuaeg pole käes , siis pole vaja osta . Mis teha , kui ask oli turu heas seisus ja praeguse seisuga tõmbad perioodiliselt olukorda hinnates bid -i alla ... :)
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Philadelphia FED ... ai ai
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Philadelphia Fed -20.9 vs -1.5 consensus
Väga kole number tõesti. -
vaatasin graafikut ka, viimati 2002 aasta alguses vist sellel tasemel
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Bernanke says fiscal stimulus would provide broader base of support for economy than just monetary policy
During Q&A, Bernanke says economy likely to see below trend growth in 2008, and into 2009, says the Fed is not forecasting a recession
Bernanke says Fed is not forecasting a recession
Bernanke says expects pickup in latter part of 2008, but growth will be weaker than in 2007
Bernanke says U.S. economy will continue to grow at a relatively slow pace in 1H08 -
Veresaun turgudel jätkub. Vahelduseks üks graafik siia Apple'ist, kus toetustasemeks pakutakse $150. Allikaks RealMoney.
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Lõpuks siis ka margin callid käiku läinud ja paanika tipphetk saabumas?
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Paanikaks peaks ikka VIX vist ka 30 lähedale jõudma, alles 25,5, selles mõttes lahjavõitu.
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Fed's Fisher, asked about TAF auctions, says too early to call anything a success
Imelik... mis edu nad siis lootsid? Et see kriisile kohe punkti paneks?
Likviidsust turule lisati, järelikult eesmärk täideti. Ega TAF mingi võluvits ei ole. Igal juhul Fisheri arvamused lähevad ka Bernanke eelmise nädala kõnest lahku. -
Credit Suisse tõstab tubakatööstuse väljavaate "overweight" peale, oodates sellelt turu löömist. Aasta esimese poole parima aktsiana tuuakse välja Altria (MO), mille hinnasihti tõstetakse $88-ni praeguse $79 pealt. Aasta teises pooles peaks paremini minema Loewsil, kus sigaretiüksuse Lorillardi võimalik eraldumine investoritele väärtust pakuks.
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Oi oi Delfi uudised jõuavad juba traderi uudiste aknasse....! Mis lahti on!
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Kas keegi juba USA ehitussektorit (majadeehitajaid pean ennekõike silmas) ka pikaajalise investorina vaatamas on või ootate esimesi pankrotte (juhul kui neid üldse tuleb)? SPF tundub tõsistes raskustes olevat. 2007 on tehtud miinust (Q4 veel avalikustamata aga esimesed kolm kvartalit ja üldine seis annab suuna kätte, siiski mitte ulatuse) ja rahaga tundub ka kitsas käes olevat. Kui tõenäoliseks võib pidada "abikätt" ülevõtu näol näiteks?
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diamond, SPF on oma laenukoorma all tõesti üsna kurb vaatepilt. Mis pankrotte puudutab, siis ei olegi nii vale mõnda oodata, kõik küll ellu ei jää. Mina lükkaks ehitajate uurimise edasi aasta teise poolde.
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Tänan kommentaari eest Madis. Distsiplineerin ennast seekord, sest vähene kogemus ja riskialtidus tegid ´07 (minu esimene aasta) kõvasti liiga..
Kas sektori analüüsimiseks on konsolideeritud allikat, kuhu oluline makro kokku korjatud ja kenasti presenteeritud? -
Proovisin, mis ma proovisin, aga enamus linke on tööarvutis ja meelde ei tule midagi. Kui googeldada sõnadega "national", "builders", "construction", "association", siis leiab igasuguseid organisatsioone, kus tarvilikku, aga veel rohkem tarbetut infot külluses jagub. Kõige parem on ehitajatel endal silm peal hoida, tööstuse tähtsamad uudised käivad ka nende alt läbi.
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Homne päev tuleb huvitav nii Aasias , Euroopas kui ka Baltikumis . Lisaks peab tunnistama , et Usa turg võiks hakata käituma ratsionaalselt ja et see ka juhtub praegu , suudab mind üllatada . Mitu aastat ainult roosad prillid ees olnud .....
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AMD tulemustega väljas:
16:15 AMD expects revenue to decrease in line with seasonality
16:15 AMD prelim ($0.17), ex items vs ($0.36) First Call consensus; revs $1.77 bln vs $1.79 bln First Call consensus -
Marginaale suudeti parandada, aga ATI osa jäi oodatust tagasihoidlikumaks, aktsia -7%.
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Diamond10, enda jaoks olen välja mõelnud, et mõne USA ehitaja suhtes võib hea ostukoht olla investorile see kui mõni suurem sealt pankrotti läheb ja sektori suhtes täielik kapitulatsioon toimub. Siis vaadata mõnda tugevamat (CTX, TOL)
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Turg on täis üllatusi
Jaemüüjad (RTH) tänase languse taustal vaid -0,70% ja sulguvad kõrgemal kui teisipäevaste nõrkade jaemüüginumbrite järel
Majaehitajad (XHB) koguni +1,25% vaatamata tänastele kesistele majade müügi tulemustele ja sulguvad 5 päeva kõrgeimal tasemel
Finantssektor (XLF) -4,75% ajal, kus FED intressikärpe tõenäosus hakkab kiskuma 75 bp poole -
ja järelturul kõik tehnoloogiakraam (AMD, IBM, SKWKS, XLNX) päevase koleda kukkumise järel üleval kui tulemused löövad ootusi ehkki mõned napilt
ning XLF tõuseb +1,75% ning WM +1,52% (samas kui WM EPS -2,19 vs ootus -1,39)
homse päeva ennustamine on praeguses turuolukorras küll tänamatu töö ja mustad prillid pole paremad roosadest
finantspsühholoogia eitab turgude ratsionaalne käitumise võimalikkkust kuna investorid on emotsionaalsed, samas kui portfelliteooria eeldab investorite ratsionaalset käitumist -
WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush told lawmakers on Thursday he wants tax rebates for families and breaks for businesses in a rescue plan for the struggling U.S. economy that could total up to $150 billion.
Amid worries that the United States may already be in a recession, Bush held a private conference call with leaders of the Democratic-led Congress and their Republican counterparts.
A delicate set of negotiations took place and the president shifted gears from his initial plan to outline an economic stimulus plan on his own. Instead, he agreed to hammer out the details of the package in collaboration with legislators, congressional sources said.
"In the next few days, through ongoing bipartisan negotiations, we are hopeful that we will agree on legislation that provides timely, targeted, and temporary assistance to America's middle class," House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement.
Under discussion is a total package of $150 billion that would include both tax breaks and some spending, such as help for the unemployed, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Henno & tänase ennustamine: futuurid on pragu kenasti üleval, aga vaevalt see tugev algus jääb päeva jooksul sisse müümata. Aga hiljemalt järgmise nädala alguses võiks ka pullide elu veidi kergemaks minna. Disclaimer: kst -
Aasia turud vähemalt hetkel ei ole end segada lasknud eilsest verelaskmisest USA turul ...
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See, kuidas USA's järjekordselt "võitlusmoraali" tõstmise peale mõeldakse, peaks olema päris hea õppetund ka Eestile. Muidugi inimesed, kes suudavad elegantselt olulise ja ebaolulise eristada ja siis täie innuga ebaolulisele keskenduda (näiteks erainvestorite aktsiainvesteeringute tulumaksuvabastust mingite loodetavasti veel parandamist leidvate tehniliste üksikasjade pärast täiega maha tehes) ei kujuta praegu ilmselt ettegi, et Eestis valitsus oleks midagi arukat võimeline ette võtma.
See ei ole nii. Aga need võimalused tuleb inimeste tulevikuusalduse taastamiseks mingil hetkel avalikkusele selgelt lahti kirjutada.
