Börsipäev 28. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Barrons on valinud 10 alahinnatud aktsiat, mis pikas perspektiivis tunduvad odavad ning valik on järgmine: Chubb (CB), ConocoPhilips (COP), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Boeing (BA), General Electric (GE), Cummins (CMI), CBS (CBS), Disney (DIS), Altria (MO) and Motorola (MOT).
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Täna pool tundi peale kauplemise algust USA börsil teatatakse uute majade müüginumbrid detsembrikuu kohta. Oodatav aasta baasile viidud number jääb 645 000 juurde, mis märgiks sama näitu novembrikuuga. Seni pole kinnisvaraturu allakäigu trepil veel lõppu olnud näha, kuid üldiselt hea uudis on see, et vähemasti täna ehitatakse USAs juba vähem majasid, kui neid reaalselt vaja läheb. See on ka peamine eeldus selleks, et olukord majadeturul ühel päeval taaskord stabiliseeruks ja ülikõrged müümata majade varud väheneksid.
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Aasia turud taas näitamas punaseid toone...
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.97%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.25%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -7.20%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -5.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.95%
India Sensex -2.59%
Ning samuti Euroopa paistab kekseltläbi nii -1.5%
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Keda huvitab Nick Leesoni kommentaar Kervieli juhtumi kohta, siis saab 10-minutilist intervjuud siit kuulata. Leeson oli nimelt see kaupleja, kelle halbade tehingute tulemusena Barings põhja läks...
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Black & Decker (BDK) näitab ilusaid numbreid 4. kvartali kohta (EPS $1.06 vs konsensus $1.03 ja müügitulu $1.65 miljardit vs konsensus $1.61 miljardit), kuid prognoosid on hapud. 1. kvartalis oodatakse kasumit $1.10 kuni $1.20 vs konsensus $1.36 ning 2008. aastalt tervikuna $4.90 kuni $5.40 vs konsensus $6.14. 2007. aastaga võrreldes oleks kasumi vähenemine sellisel juhul -19% kuni -10%.
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kas Leeson mtee surnud pole?
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tundub, et eksin
kunagi jäi kõrvu, et ta suri vähki või jäi vangis oles sellesse
tore kui elab -
Kui ta just viimase paari päeva jooksul surnud ei ole siis minu teada ikka elus. Mõni aeg tagasi käis Pärnus esinemas.
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Just vaatasin Leesonit juutuubist. Täitsa elus. Kommenteeris konnasööja miljardikäkki.
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Vaatasin ka juutuubi ja see kinnitas taas veendumust - nendel väärtpaberi ja fin.turgudel pole mõtet üritada mingite teooriate abil raha teenida. Sest maailm on täis mingeid kampsuniga vendasid, kes käsutavad võõraid miljardeid ja püüavad oma tegevusega kellegile meele järgi olla, uhkustada, tõestada... whatever - lõppkokkuvõttes käituvad nad nende metsikute mahtudega mängides täiesti ebaratsionaalselt.
Ja kuidas siis saab turg olla normaalne, kui suur osa osalisi on süüdimatud kapsunid, kellele oli juhuslikult liiga palju "paroole kätte" jäänud? -
Leeson haigestus vähki minu teada vangis olles, aga ta on juba paranenud, selle tõttu ka tema vangistust lühendati.
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Tänahommikused tulemused on kokkuvõttes isegi täitsa okeid. Huvitav, kui paljudele selline nõrk BDK prognoos ikkagi täna veel jätkuvalt tõsiselt suurt üllatust valmistab?. Lisaks teatas MCD, et hakkab nüüd dividende välja maksma kvartaalselt.
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You've Heard It Before:
Respect the Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/28/2008 8:07 AM EST
A trend is a trend is a trend.
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?
--Alec Cairncross, Scottish economist
One of the most difficult things for many investors to do is to respect the trend. The nature of Wall Street is to try to constantly guess when the prevailing trend might end.
Everyone wants to be the hero who times the exact moment when the major turn occurs. Every day, money is invested based on the belief that the end of the trend is near, and the investors are usually wrong. Trends tend to persist much longer than we think they will. There is a tendency to think that the market should do what we think is reasonable, and in most cases, reasonable people feel that trends shouldn't last as long as they do.
Although the market has clearly been in a strong downtrend for weeks now, I read a number of articles this weekend about how investors should be thinking about when this downtrend will end. We are constantly pushed by Wall Street to find "values" in the wreckage and to ignore the fact that we are in freefall. Even the usually bearish Barron's had a cover story about how some stocks are "oversold" and may be worth buying.
When I looked through charts this weekend, I see almost nothing that offers an attractive entry point for the intermediate term. There may be some things that may bounce in the short term, but it will take quite some time for the selling to bottom out and for the downtrend to end.
Valuation is a secondary consideration in a market downtrend. Cheap stocks get even cheaper and the fundamentals that looked so good have a tendency to disappear as events unfold. Buying a stock that is tending down because you believe that the market is mispricing it is one of the most dangerous things you can do. If you really are convinced a stock is a good value, wait for the chart to confirm your thinking to some degree. Other, more-informed people will eventually step in and support a stock, and it is only after they show up and act on their convictions that we should consider joining the part.
In this market, my game plan is simple. I'm going to respect the downtend until I see good reason to believe it has ended. I may makes some short-term countertrend trades, but all rallies will be questioned and expected to fail. I'm certainly not going to be heavily invested when the ultimate turn in the market comes, but that doesn't concern me at all; I believe far more money will be lost trying to determine that point than will be made by those who get it right.
The time to buy for the longer term will come only when the charts can hold on to a bounce for a while and a new uptrend starts to build. That is going to take some time.
We have another ugly start this morning. Overseas markets are a sea of red, and a general feeling of pessimism is in the air. We have plenty of earnings reports this week and the Fed meeting on Wednesday afternoon, but market players have little confidence that the worst is behind us.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GHM +12.5%, SILC +9.6%, GLW +5.5%, HAL +1.8%... M&A news: MATR +16.7% (to be acquired by Inverness Medical for $39.00 per share), LNY +10.7% (receives proposal from CEO to acquire all shares for $23.50/share)... Other news: ACOR +14.8% (announces successful thorough QT study of Fampridine-SR), ITI +6.2% (announces new contract worth over $1 mln), KWD +14.0% (will let stockholders decide on $21/share offer from SunCapital), SLM +5.6% (announces new financing agreement), SA +4.9% (announces gold resources increased 14% at SA's Noche Buena project), RSTO +4.7% (SHLD says it does not intend to pursue a transaction at the price set forth in the 11/23 letter, but may still be interested in evaluating a transaction), WCG +4.4% (announces appointment of Charles Berg as Executive Chairman and Heath Schiesser as President and CEO)
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: MELI -13.1% (also files for a $292.14 mln common stock offering), YRCW -9.9%, REDF -8.4%, BDK -6.9%, FSNM -5.4%, CRNT -5.1%, MCD -3.9%, ASH -2.1%, RDWR -1.3%, VZ -1.0%... Select gold stocks showing weakness on reports that South African mines remain shut as power supply was cut for fourth day: HMY -6.2%, AAUK -3.6%, GFI -3.0%, AU -2.3%... Select solar stocks showing weakness: CSUN -4.7%, LDK -4.2%, AKNS -3.3%, FSLR -1.3% (tgt lowered at Calyon)... Other news: ADS -34.5% (Blackstone Group, Aladdin Solutions do not anticipate the condition to closing the merger relating to obtaining approvals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will be satisfied), ABK -11.6% (extends last week 91% decline), IMA -6.2% (announces plans to acquire MATR), MBI -5.6% (extends last week decline)... Analyst downgrades: RAVN -5.1% (downgraded to Sell at Piper), WAG -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), SHPGY -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Bernstein), NE -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan). -
Majade turul võib seda sinist joont mu ülevaloleval postitusel taaskord kenasti allapoole vedada. Nõrkus jätkub.
New Home Sales 604K vs 645K consensus, prior revised to 634K from 647K -
Indias pole intressimäärasid viimasel neljal aastal kordagi langetatud. Homme on taas seal intressimäärapoliitika üle otsustamise aeg. Kui intresse langetatakse, siis võib oodata suurt rallit intressitundlikest aktsiatest (näiteks 'India' foorumis arutatud Tata Motors (TTM) on selleks hea kandidaat).
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Apple'i (AAPL) tegevdirektor Steve Jobs on ka aktsia käekäigul silma peal hoidmas ning on kirjutanud kirja, millest Briefing kenasti kokkuvõtte teinud. Kirja viimane fraas 'pidage vastu' näitab minu silmis Jobsi usku ettevõtte tulevikku.
AAPL Apple: Steve Jobs to Apple investors: 'hang in there' - AppleInsider (130.01 unch) -Update-
AppleInsider reports in a private communication last week, Apple CEO Steve Jobs acknowledged the beating his co's shares have taken during this time of economic uncertainty, but remained confident that investors would again see rewards for their loyalty in the long run. "Wow... what a remarkable last few days," he wrote in an email to employees, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider. "Our stock is being buffeted around by factors a lot larger than ourselves." The Apple co-founder expressed sadness for many of the co's investors who may have seen their investments fall under water, but encouraged those with positions to put the matter into perspective by examining the performance of Apple shares over the past 24 months. As you can see, we have outperformed many other blue-chip tech companies, including Google," he wrote, tacking on a stock performance comparison chart for illustration. "I continue to believe that our fundamentals - our remarkable people, our clear and focused strategy, our new product pipeline, our 200+ retail stores, our $18 billion of cash in the bank with no debt, etc., will serve us well in the coming months and years." In closing his email to employees, Jobs remained upbeat, reiterating confidence that those who remain loyal to their positions in Apple will inevitably come out on top. "I believe that investors who stay with us will be rewarded as the market's confidence is restored over time," he wrote. "Hang in there." -
Mõned vana kooli mehed on kunagi öelnud, et oma aktsia käekäigu kommenteerimine on halb märk, aga noh, kui Steve Jobs seda teeb, siis on see ilmselt pigem cool.
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Ja-jah. Kui meil on koolieelikul-abituriendil iPod, siis pidage vastu.
