Börsipäev 15. veebruar
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Tänane hommik on börsil täis pikitud erinevate majandusraportitega. Tund aega enne turgu teatatakse ekspordi ja impordihinna muutused (mõju inflatsioonile), 15 minutit enne turu algust teatatakse jaanuarikuu tööstustoodangu muutus (konsensus +0.1% vs detsembrikuu 0.0%) ning pool tundi pärast börsi avanemist Michigani Sentimendi hinnang/indeks, millelt oodatakse võrreldes eelmise korraga väikest halvenemist.
Arvestades seda, et turg on juba niigi arvestanud Föderaalreservi agressiivsete intressimäära kärbetega, siis negatiivsete uudiste positiivsena tõlgendamist ma täna eriti ei näe. Seega oodatust parem tööstustoodangu muutus oleks ka aktsiaturgudele meelepärasem jne. -
Jaapani Keskpank otsustas jätta intressimäärad 0.50% peale.
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Huvitav artikkel täna Bloombergis seoses võlakirjade kindlustajatega. Link sellele on siin. Tuleb välja, et Moody on oma otsuse MBI ja ABK krediidireitingu osas tegemas veel veebruarikuu jooksul. Seega ettevõtetel on ca 2 nädalat aega, et oma seisu parandada - vastasel korral on tulemuseks tõenäoliselt reitingu alandamine.
Dinallo may have less than two weeks to find a solution. Moody's Investors Service said it plans to complete its review of Armonk, New York-based MBIA and Ambac of New York by the end of the month. The world's two largest bond insurers guarantee $1.2 trillion debt and the loss of their AAA ratings would cast doubt on the rankings of thousands of schools, hospitals and local governments around the country.
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Goldman Sachs on täna langetamas kivisöe sektori soovitust 'Müü' peale.
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Ameeriklased jätkavad inflatsiooni importimist.
Import Prices m/m +1.7%, prior -0.2%
NY Empire State Index -11.7 vs 7.0 consensus -
WSJ reports Financial Guaranty Insurance, a major bond insurer, has notified the New York State Insurance Department that it will request to be split into two cos, according to a person familiar with the matter. One of the cos would likely retain much of the business of insuring structured finance bonds such as those backed by mortgages, which have come under severe pressure due to the housing mkt slowdown, according to the person. The other co would likely retain most of the municipal bond insurance business, which is stronger, the person said. Details of the precise structure are still unclear, but the plan could involve raising additional capital. (PMI, ABK, MBI).
Pakun, et teised kindlustajad sama teed ei lähe. Aga kindlustajate käekäik on vaieldamatult huvitav, seepärast nende uudised ka tihti vahendame. Muide, FGICil on osades finantsportaalides tore tutvustus:
Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC), like a superhero, secures the city ... well, secures the city bonds, anyway.
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Best Buy (BBY) on eelturul välja tulnud kasumihoiatusega. 2008-ndaks majandusaastaks (mis lõppeb 1. märts 08) oodatakse $3.05-3.10 suurust kasumit aktsia kohta. Varasem EPS-i prognoos oli $3.10-3.20 ja analüütikute konsensus $3.17. Peamise põhjusena tuuakse välja pühadejärgse müügi nõrkust. Aktsia on reageerinud uudisele 4%-lise langusega.
Co now expects comparable store sales to decline modestly for the fiscal fourth quarter, reflecting changes in the macro environment. Co said, "Our December revenue results were in line with our expectations. Soft domestic customer traffic in January, coupled with our near-term outlook, now indicate that our fourth-quarter revenue will fall short of our planned targets". The company said that it plans to open approximately 130 to 160 new stores globally during its 2009 fiscal year in order to increase customer convenience and to boost market share while providing the latest elements in store design. -
Vastavalt ootustele ning turu reaktsioon puudub või on pigem positiivne peale eelturu allamüüki:
Industrial Production +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus -
USA futuurid on eilsega võrreldes kauplemas ca pool protsenti allpool.
Saksamaa DAX -1.76%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.74%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.37%
Hispaania IBEX -1.94%
Venemaa MICEX -1.93%
Poola WIG -1.83%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.03%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.53%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.21%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.19%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.31%
Tai Set -0.54%
India Sensex +1.96%
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Be Optimistic About the Future, but Be Patient
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/15/2008 8:28 AM EST
I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism. ... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year [1930] the country will make steady progress.
-- Andrew Mellon on Dec. 31, 1929
Sooner or later, we are going to see some better market action. The downtrend will end the worry, gloom will dissipate and the market will begin to work steadily higher. That is the nature of markets. They go through their cycles of ups and downs, and if you are patient long enough things will always get better.
That isn't a particularly profound observation, but too many investors are anxious to hurry the process. They know there are cycles of ups and downs in the market, but their primarily emotion is to anxiously anticipate when things will change rather than to simply accept what is happening at the moment.
Right now the market is acting very poorly. There are all sorts of reasons to explain why that is the case. All you need to do is pick up The Wall Street Journal this morning and read about Ben Bernanke's lack of optimism and new emerging problems in the credit markets.
We can go on and on about the problems that are plaguing us, and you can be sure the media will do just that. As investors, we need to simply acknowledge that the market is trying to work through some very difficult issues. More important, we need to not do what everyone else out there is doing -- trying to anticipate when the turn will eventually come. We simply need to deal with what is in front of us right now, today.
The only reason to be heavily invested right now is because you believe that the majority of negatives are priced in, the worst is over and the technical picture will quickly improve. For most people, that sort of optimism comes naturally. We know the market has an upside bias over the long run and we are confident that things will eventually work out like they always have in the past.
Like others, I'm very optimistic about how the future will unfold, but I see no good reason to act on that optimism at this time. My experience has always been that when a lasting and meaningful change does come, I will have plenty of time to do my buying and join the party. I don't need to prove my optimism by taking risks at this point. Good markets last months, and showing up a bit late won't affect the level of my enjoyment.
So be optimistic about a better market environment eventually emerging, but stay patient and don't be overanxious to jump in. Staying defensive and holding high levels of cash during a downtrend gives you a huge advantage over the serial bottom-callers who constantly average down in hopes of catching the exact turning point. They will do well in the first few days of a bounce but most will be buried so deeply that they will need huge rallies just to get even.
Digging out of a hole is one of the most unproductive things that investors can do. If you can avoid having to do that, you will likely generate superior returns. So be optimistic, but also be very patient before you act on your optimism.
We have a weak open on the way as the news flow continues to be quite negative. We have a three-day weekend coming up, and that may keep some buyers sidelined, especially after what occurred following our last three-day weekend.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RADS +11.4%, SPSX +11.2%, CGNX +10.5%, PCLN +9.6%, CBM +8.4%, RMTR +6.7%, WTW +6.7% (also upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), DISK +6.6%, MCHX +6.5% (also increase buyback by 2 mln shares), , AMMD +5.0%, DRYS +4.5%, NOEC +4.3%, ASIA + 3.4%, DSX +2.4%, UNCL +2.3%, FTI +2.0%, SJM +1.4%, EXEL +1.3%, BUCY +1.2%... Select drybulk shippers showing strength following DRYS and DSX earnings: TBSI +3.6%, EXM +3.6%, EGLE +2.3%, GNK +1.9%... Other news: NPBC +6.0% (will replace BDY in the S&P SmallCap 600), WG +4.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), KFT +3.0% (Berkshire Hathaway reports 8.6% stake in the co - DJ), ISIS +2.4% (reports that OncoGenex's OGX-011 achieved primary endpoint in Phase 2 Trial with second-line chemotherapy for prostate cancer)... Analyst upgrades: BRCD +4.1% (added to Top Picks at Citigroup), CSIQ +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), S +2.2% (upgraded to Neutral at HSBC), FSYS +2.1% (initiated with Buy at Broadpoint), CSGP +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at JMP), FLR +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: ARRS -26.7%, RCRC -15.7%, ULBI -14.2%, SONO -11.2%, CMG -10.3%, N -6.1%, AATI -4.9%, YGE -4.6%, BBY -3.9%, PEET -3.8%, CENX -3.6%, HITT -3.6%, ANST -2.4%, ANF -1.4%... Select bond insurers showing weakness following report that Dinallo proposes splitting the insurers' municipal bond business from their money-losing subprime-mortgage units: MBI -3.2%, ABK -3.1%, PMI -2.9% (also FGIC requests to be split into 2 companies)... Other news: AZPN -6.5% (announces delisting from Nasdaq effective 2/19), SOL -4.3% (still checking), LMC -3.8% (showing continued weakness after yesterday 10%+ decline), UBS -3.0% (Citigroup says UBS may need $18 bln in extra write-downs - Reuters), CC -2.2% (down in sympathy with BBY guidance)... Analyst downgrades: ACI -5.8% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), ICO -5.4% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), LCAV -4.7% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), BTU -4.5% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), MEE -4.1% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), FCL -3.8% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), KWK -3.4% (downgraded to Add at Calyon), WFMI -3.1% (downgraded to Underweight at Lehman), AEA -3.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), ALXN -2.6% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), VMC -2.3% (downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm), SYT -2.2% (downgraded to Underweight at Lehman), RRC -2.0% (downgraded to Add at Calyon), CNX -1.5% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm). -
SWF'd ka võlakirjade kindlustajatele appi?
Eric Dinallo, New York State Insurance Department Superintendent, says Sovereign Wealth Funds inquire about bond insurers - DJ
DJ reports sovereign wealth funds have made "serious inquiries" about injecting capital into troubled bond insurers such as ABK and MBI, New York State Insurance Department Superintendent Eric Dinallo said. In a CNBC interview, Dinallo said that without capital infusions, the fate on the bond insurers isn't "going to go any differently" than it did for FGIC, whose key AAA rating was cut by Moody's on Thursday. Dinallo said at least two or three private equity cos have made inquiries, as well as cos invested in the companies already. (PMI) -
Kui alles hiljuti lisasin foorumisse jutu Netflixi kohta, et viimane kavatseb tulevikus loobuda HD DVD formaadis filmide müügist, siis täna tuli teade selle kohta, et formaadi peamine arendaja ja lipulaev Toshiba tunnistab sisuliselt kaotust ning loobub formaadi kasutamisest. Päris üllatusena otsus siiski ei tulnud, sest Toshiba on viimasel ajal agressiivselt kärpinud HDDVD-mängijate hindasid. Sellest hoolimata valisid filmistuudiod blu-ray formaadi. Seega sahtlisse pole mõtet mängijaid toota ning varem või hiljem pidi otsus tulema (kuigi tänane uudis ei põhine ametlikul teatel).
Seega ei ole kõrglahutusega DVD-mängijate ostmisel mõtet enam HD DVD formaadi poole vaadata. Kuna ca 75% maailmas valmistatud blu-ray formaadis mängijad põhinevad Sigma (SIGM) kiipidel, on pikaajaliselt tegemist väga positiivse arenguga. BWS Financiali prognooside kohaselt müüakse 2007. aastal 15-20 miljonit blue-ray mängijat.
Igal juhul tore uudis Sigma aktsionäridele, lisaks peaks ettevõte avaldama veebruaris neljanda kvartali majandustulemused.
Igal juhl on formaadisõdasid alati tore kõrvalt jälgida ning kes uut põnevust otsib, võib pilgud pöörata mobiilside valdkonda ning jälgida pealt kemlpemist 4G formaadi üle. :)
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09:56 ECONX University of Michigan Sentiment-prelim 69.6 vs 76.5 consensus
jälle tuli data varem välja? -
> Kuna ca 75% maailmas valmistatud blu-ray formaadis mängijad põhinevad Sigma kiipidel
Korrektne oleks öelda 75% standalone Blu-ray mängijatest, sest enimmüüdud mängija on vist ikka PlayStation3 -
Just... Michigan varem ja lausa 4 minutit..tavaliselt üle paari minuti see ikka ei ulatu...
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lauris71, ka Sony kasutab Sigma blue-ray kiipe, aga tõesti vist mitte PS3-s.
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Nädala jagu tagasi sai räägitud, et Cramer usub Bear Sternsi(BSC) ülevõttu... täna on igaljuhul need kuulukad taaskord turul aktiivselt laineid löömas.
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Pisut pikemas perspektiivis on Bill Strazullo RealMoney all kirjutamas sellest ohust, et kõik kalduvad arvama, et põhi aktsiaturgudel on tehtud ning et sellised ühisarvamused kipuvad tihtipeale negatiivset üllatust valmistama. Päris huvitav ja minu arvates tervitatav kommentaar, millest panen ühe lõigu ka siia:
We feel as though the biggest mistake investors are making is underestimating the downside. There is a mind-set that the market has come down so much, and we have experienced so much bad news, that the bottom must be right around the corner.
If we do not see the broader market start to gain traction north of 1,385 to 1,400 in the next several weeks, the market will begin to transition into a lower range where the top end is defined as 1,350 to 1,385, fair value" comes in around 1,275, and the lower end comes in anywhere from 1,175 to 1,100. The bottom line is that we feel we could get another major washout (10% to 15% across the board), even from current levels.
The Dow will hold up the best, the S&P will be in the middle of the pack, and stay away from the Nasdaq.
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Joel, mismõttes üle paari min ei ulatu? Tavaliselt tuleb ju in time. Mis jama data avaldamisega on viimasel ajal? ISM alles tuli varem välja (ma ei näinudki lõpuks pressikat ametliku põhjendusega miks tuli). Kas keegi seekordse varasema tuleku põhjust teab?
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Enamasti on jah intime... aga olen kindel, et selliste vähemoluliste andmete puhul olen mitmeid kordi varemgi näinud raportit 2-3 minutit enne õiget aega. Briefing on viimasel ajal selle probleemi lahendanud niimoodi, et paneb ette sõna 'will be released approximately...'
ISM oli muidugi teine teema - nii olulised asjad peaks ikka õigel ajal avaldatama ning infoga niimoodi ümberkäimine toob õigustatult kaasa investorite pahameele. Loodame, et see tavaks ei saa. -
Esmaspäeval siis turud Presidentide päeva tõttu suletud - seega tuleb pikk 3 päevane nädalavahetus Ameerika turgudel.
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Inflatsiooninumbrid igatahes kutsuvad lühikesi positsioone lisama.
