Börsipäev 17. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nädalavahetusel tuli välja 2 olulist uudist:
1)Bear Stearns(BSC) maksis veel 2 päeva tagasi $55, nädalavahetusel müüdi aga ettevõte JPMile maha hinnaga $2 aktsia eest... Probleemide ulatus ettevõttes peab olema kirjeldamatult suur, et selline sundmüük olematu hinnaga ette tuli võtta.
2)Föderaalreserv langetas erakorraliselt diskontomäära (hind, millega saab laenata otse Keskpangalt) 3.50% pealt 3.25% peale.
Suurimad aktsiaindeksid on USA eelturul BSC sellise lõpplahenduse peale pisut üle 2% miinuspoolel. -
... ja kuld on üle 1026$
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Kas kogu euroopa peaks täna turgude avamise ootuses värisema?
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Euroopas olukord järgmine: DAx -2.4%, CAC40 -2.2%
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Põnevad sündmused igal juhul: Aasia ka suures miinuses, nafta ja kuld teevad uusi rekordeid, dollar jätkab kukkumist.
Ainuke küsimus on, et kes on järgmine? -
Dollar käis ära tesemel 1,59 eur/usd, mida lähemale Euroopa turgude avanemisele, seda stabiilsemaks olukord muutub ning hetkel kursiks 1,5762.
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Greenspan Ft's: We will never have a perfect model of risk: "The pace of liquidation is likely to pick up even more as new-home construction falls further. The level of home prices will probably stabilise as soon as the rate of inventory liquidation reaches its maximum, well before the ultimate elimination of inventory excess. That point, however, is still an indeterminate number of months in the future."
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Ning finantsekorisse tuld juurde:
Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc (PMI) reported its biggest ever quarterly loss, primarily due to losses from its investment in bond insurer FGIC Corp, and slashed its quarterly dividend by over 70 percent. PMI , which had rescheduled its quarterly results , said fourth-quarter net loss was $1.0 billion, or $12.51 a share, compared with net income of $100.5 million, or $1.19 a share, in the year ago period. Analysts expected the company to post a loss of $3.37 a share, according to Reuters Estimates. -
leia 10 erinevust :)
17-Mar-08
08:19 LEH Lehman Brothers says liquidity position strong - Bloomberg (39.26 ) -Update-
LEH comments in e-mailed statement; says its liquidity continues to be very strong, liquidity framework is competitive advantage - Bloomberg
10-Mar-08
17:04 BSC Bear Stearns confirms that it denies liquidity rumors (62.30 -7.78) -Update-
The co announces it has denied market rumors regarding the firm's liquidity. The co stated that there is absolutely no truth to the rumors of liquidity problems that circulated today in the mkt. Alan Schwartz, President and CEO of the co, said, "Bear Stearns' balance sheet, liquidity and capital remain strong." -
Briefing vahendab analüüsimajade nägemusi Bear Stearnsi ja kogu finantssektori kohta. Kõige parem mõte tuleb Oppenheimerilt:
While they believe BSC's case is unique, what will not be unique is a resulting major negative revaluation of financials. Firm says that on the basis of book value, most banks do not appear expensive as they trade near price to book multiples of the 1990-1991 credit cycle. However on the basis of tangible book value, banks look expensive and are trading well above tangible book value. As they believe they will begin to see goodwill writedowns during the first half of this year, they believe investors will focus more on tangible book value and stocks will quickly revalue to far lower levels.
Sisuliselt on mõtet toetamas ka UBS:
UBS downgraded LEH, GS, STT, IVZ, and AMTD saying most capital markets related stocks are likely to move lower before recovering and valuations will likely test 20-year lows rather than 10-year lows.
Hetkel LEH -30%, MS -8%, GS -8%.
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Mida see UBS downgradeb siin? Vaadaku, kuidas ISE hakkama saab :-p
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NY Empire State Index -22.2 vs -7.4 consensus, prior -11.7
see nõrk number ei huvita vist täna küll kedagi -
NB! Reedel tähistatakse Suurt Reedet, seega aktsiaturud on suletud. Seega optsioonikauplejad - märtsikuine optsioonireede on sedapuhku reaalselt neljapäeval!
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Eks nad üksteise võidu teisi downgrade'vad jah. Pindu teiste silmis näevad, aga palki enda silmis miitte. Muide, Oppenheimer oli see, kes samaaegselt teiste majade BSC hinnalangetamistega ütles kõva häälega vist esimesena välja, et the stock could be worthless.
Natuke vanemaid uudiseid kerides tasub meenutada teadet 11. märtsist.
Bloomberg.com reports Joseph Lewis, the second-largest shareholder in the co, may add to his holdings after the stock fell on speculation the co lacks sufficient access to capital, a person close to him said. Lewis, a 71-year-old billionaire who began building his Bear Stearns stake in September, views the investment as long-term and isn't bothered by the falling share price, the person said, declining to be identified because Lewis doesn't make public statements about his holdings.
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Hetkel juba LEH -35%, MS -14%, GS -9%
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Tundub,et täna tuleb kõva müügipäev.Kõige hullem ongi see ,et optsioonide aegumine on sattunud sellisele nädalale .Ise olen ka optsioone välja kirjutanud ja nüüd ei oskagi seisukohta võtta kuidas neid katta,sest täna müüakse alla, homme ostetakse jälle üles.
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Maailma aktsiaturud vaatavad meile täna õige punaselt vastu:
Saksamaa DAX -3.65%Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -3.72%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -2.93%
Hispaania IBEX -2.32%
Venemaa MICEX -2.70%
Poola WIG -2.93%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.71%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -5.18%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.59%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -6.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.76%
Tai Set -1.52%
India Sensex -6.03%
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Industrial Production -0.5% vs -0.1% consensus, prior +0.1%
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Market Grapples With Crisis
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/17/2008 8:25 AM EDT
The easiest period in a crisis situation is actually the battle itself. The most difficult is the period of indecision -- whether to fight or run away. And the most dangerous period is the aftermath. It is then, with all his resources spent and his guard down, that an individual must watch out for dulled reactions and faulty judgment. -- Richard M. Nixon
The market is grappling with the stunning collapse of Bear Stearns (BSC) this morning. What is so unnerving about this situation isn't that a major brokerage is having problems but that the market did such an amazingly poor job of anticipating what was happening. A week ago BSC was trading over $70, and today it is essentially worthless. If the market is so totally incapable of valuing BSC how can we trust it to value anything else.
This is clearly a major financial crisis for the U.S. economy that will have widespread and long-lasting ramifications. We need to proceed with extreme care at this juncture to protect ourselves. As I've been saying for some time it is far more important in a bad market to protect our capital than try to find profits when conditions are so uncooperative. Ultimately some big money will be made in this crisis as the situation plays out but much money will also be lost by those who act rashly and prematurely.
The big problem for the market at this point is that we still do not have any clarity as to the extent of the problem. Normally a major crisis like the collapse of Bear Stearns can help the market bottom as it serves to purge some of the poison in the system. While that is true to some extent in this case we still really don't know how far reaching these problems are. If Bear can go from $70 to $2 so quickly why can't something else?
A further problem we are facing is that the short-term moves by the Fed to shore up the problems may do nothing but delay some of the problems we are facing. Already we can see the dollar spiraling into the abyss and fears of inflation are growing quickly as the market is flooding by attempts to create liquidity and keep financial systems from seizing up.
The hope of the bulls at this point is that this crisis will create some panic and give us a washout that results in a tradable low. Certainly the mood is sour enough that conditions are becoming good for a bounce particularly if governmental officials are successful in restoring some calm.
However, the biggest danger will come once things settle down, and we find that there aren't many catalysts for the market to rebound. We are likely to be plagued by the fear of the unknown even as we digest that Bear Stearns news today.
My advice remains what it has been for a while now. Stay patient, respect the fact that we are in a downtrend and don't try to guess when the bottom will occur. If you protect your precious capital now you will have the ability to profit greatly in the future. There is going to be a lot of chaos in the next few days. If you are a very short term trader there may be some opportunities but if you are a longer term investor it will still be too early to take any significant action.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: HNR +3.8%, RAMR +3.5%, PMI +1.8%... M&A news: DMX +22.1% (receives tender offer to be acquired for $5.40/share by Walgreen's), BLOG +14.4% (BMC Software to Purchase BladeLogic for $28/share in cash), JPM +1.5% (to acquire BSC for $2/share, also ratings affirmed by Moody's and S&P)... Select gold stocks showing strength on higher spot prices: AUY +4.2%, GFI +2.6%, KGC +2.5%, GLD +2.3%, ABX +1.1%... Other news: CRME +29.8% (announces positive interim Ph. 2b results for oral vernakalant and engages Merrill Lynch as strategic advisor), TWTI +6.5% (Third Wave's InPlex CF Molecular Test receives FDA clearance), TUP +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: NAT +1.9% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: TPX -11.0%, CNO -6.6%, BJGP -4.5%, ITW -4.4%, PGNX -3.8%, VQ -2.4%, SUI -2.1%, GBL -1.5%... M&A news: BSC -89.1% (to be bought by JP Morgan for $2/share in stock-swap)... Financial stocks are under heavy pressure after fire sale at BSC: LEH -31.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), WM -16.1%, MER -15.2%, C -15.0%, NCC -14.8%, CIT -14.6%, ABK -12.4%, CFC -10.7%, WB -10.5%, MBI -10.4%, UBS -10.4% (to consider 8,000 layoffs - NY Times), FNM -10.1%, IMB -9.4%, BCS -9.2%, MS -9.0%, GS -8.8% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), STT -8.4% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS), RBS -8.1%, FRE -7.9%, COF -7.9%, CS -6.0%, AIG -5.8%, BAC -5.4%, DB -5.4%, ETFC -5.0%, WFC -4.9%, RF -3.7%, HBC -3.7%, BK -3.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at UBS)... Other news: SI -17.4% (outlook dims as several projects struggle - WSJ), CVTX -6.3% (announces they have not received action on the NDA, for regadenoson, from the FDA), ASTI -2.4% (files an $80 mln common stock shelf offering in an S-3), ADBE -1.7% (Hearing tier-1 firm cuts EPS ests for ADBE, saying macro outlook has deteriorated)... Analyst downgrades: MBLX -6.0% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), MRO -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), AMTD -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CX -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), DHT -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), PT -2.4% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), COH -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
Kiired ajad, kiired ajad, CNBC vahendab.
:)
Welcome, journalists! Now get out. Another fallout from the Bear Stearns
BSC debacle: financial analyst Richard Bove at Punk Ziegel, who has been much in demand for his commentary in the past few weeks, put out a press release over the weekend saying he would not be doing any more interviews and would not make research available to the media. He said he had been deluged with so many media calls he could not talk to his clients, and that "complaints from one television network were excessive." (Didn't say who). -
USA esihumorist:
President Bush makes statement on economy & financial markets.
Says we're in challenging times, but that financial institutions are strong, with capital markets functioning efficiently. -
UBS arvab, et BSC ostmine on JP Morgan'i jaoks suurepärane diil:
UBS says the way they see it, JPM just paid ~$260 mln for a company that was thought to have $11 bln in tangible book just last week (so 0.03x tangible book or 0.25x expected earnings). Considering the transaction-related costs of ~$6bn pretax/~$4bn post tax, firm thinks JPM's definitely getting paid for the risk and opportunity cost of this deal. The price compensates JPM for the risk it's taking on, the environment we're in, and reflects the fact that JPM is one of very few firms that has the ability to take this on, especially over 1 weekend. Firm says JPM becomes an instant player in prime brokerage without the pain and cost of building; and it adds to capital markets platform by retaining select teams, without having to also hand out retention bonuses as had been typical of past IB deals. -
huvitav, kas BSC hetke turuhind 3.60 USD kandis indikeerib parema pakkumise ootust kui 2 USD või ostjate rumalust? :)
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kuram seda teab, mida mõeldakse. alguses mõtlesin, et tugev short covering hoiab asja ülkeval, aga jumal teab mida mõeldakse ..ostu tagasilükkamist, kõrgemat hinda ..või hoopis pankrotti. väga väga väikselt ja tight stopiga short vbla works out vbla saab 300-400% lossi
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Douglas Kassi poolt CNBC-s väga mahlakas võrdlus :)
"The outlook for corporate profits is declining faster then Britney Spears’ career." -
NTRI üllatavalt tugev, põhi käes.
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NTRI suutlikus on tõesti üllatav. Ei näe küll miks peaks ostma. Tundub lihtsalt väike põrge.
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Q: Palju maksavad LEHi april10 putid?
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2.40-2.45
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Volatiilsus 420, päris räige
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Selline jutuke ilmus täna. Ma ise usun ka, et firma on liiga odav.
NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) provides weight-management systems and fitness products and services in the U.S., including an at-home weight-loss program that features prepackaged food and dietary counseling. NTRI shares recently closed at $13.33, down sharply from its 52 week high of $74.09. I believe the shares are attractively priced at this level.
For the full year of 2007, revenue totaled $777 million, up 37%, while EPS increased 30% to $2.92. However, EPS fell to $0.33 in 4Q07 from $0.54 in the prior-year period as a result of steep increases in expenses. The company guided revenue of $690 million to $710 million for 2008, down from $776.8 million in 2007. The average estimate of five analysts polled by Thomson Financial Network was that the company would post revenue of $825.3 million this year. Chairman and CEO Michael J. Hagan attributed the expected revenue decline to the economy, but said the company was still optimistic about its long-term potential and was planning to enter several foreign markets.
Compared to Weight Watcher's International Inc. (WTW):
* NTRI at $13.33 share... WTW at $46.88/share
* NTRI at zero debt... WTW at 1.65 billion debt
* 31.74 million share float... WTW has 36.03 million float
* 66.6% short position (down from 71.5%)... WTW only a 6.9% short position
* 2008 eps at 2.05/share... WTW at 2.92/share
* 2009 eps at 2.39/share... WTW at 3.24/share
* P/E of 4.5... WTW at 18.9
* PEG ratio .33 ... WTW at 1.39
* More geographic expansion potential for NTRI compared to WTW. NTRI is expanding into Canada in 2008 and the U.K., Germany, Japan, and Australia in 2009.
Looking at these important numbers, one would expect NutriSystem Inc.'s shares to be trading much higher.
The company's customer growth faces challenges, including GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) introduction of the diet pill Alli, as well as by aggressive advertising from other weight-loss companies.
However, this appears to be a short-term threat. The effectiveness of Alli is unproven, and its users complain of stomach pain and gas. Many users have not lost much, if any, weight. NTRI, on the other hand, has a relatively high reactivation rate, and customers are pleased with the results. The company signed up 218,000 new customers during the fourth quarter, 7% more than in the prior-year period but below guidance of 245,000. NTRI will likely need to spend heavily to promote its products, decreasing operating margin, but this should be offset in part by solid international growth and share repurchases.
For the long term, I am optimistic about the company's growth prospects. There is much room for growth in the diet industry. I expect increased promotions, returning customers and international expansion will result in a turnaround. -
Turg on oma põhjadest võimsalt homse Föderaalreservi otsuse eel üles liikunud ja lähenetakse reedestele sulgumistasemetele.
BSC ise kaupleb aga JPMi poolt pakutud $2-lisest hinnast jupp maad kõrgemal. Oppenheimeri analüütik usub aga, et investorid on praegu lihtsalt eitusfaasis ja soovitab BSC aktsiad ära müüa:
BSC Bear Stearns: Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC says JPM was the only bank on the street that had the flexibility to do this deal (4.88 -25.14). Says there are people in denial that are holding onto the stock, or they are holding onto the idea that a white night comes in, but she advises shareholders to sell as there is nobody else that is going to come in here.
Lehman Brothers: Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney also says that to suggest that Lehman is going to go out of business is a real stretch (31.21 -8.05). -
Brokerid suutsid päeva põhjadest siiski kõrgemal lõpetada ning on üsna tõenäoline, et nii mõnelegi tuleb homme üsna positiivne päev. Hetkel Interactive Brokers (IBKR) -14%, GFI (GFIG) -22%, Tradestation (TRAD) -8% ning MF Global (MF) -65%.
MF on ka nõrkuse peasüüdlane ning kuigi otsest põhjust ei ole, siis levivad siingi kuulujutud halva olukorra kohta:
MF Global confirms Joe Lewis (BSC suuraktsionär) is not a client of MF Global; reiterates strong quarter-to-date performance. Co issues the following statement in connection with today's market activity: "MF Global understands the significant concerns across the markets... We are seeing no impact on our repo lines. In addition, MF Global has no exposure to sub-prime mortgage-backed securities that have been the root cause of the current market environment. While the company uses third party repo lines, we have alternative funding in the event those lines are not available to the company. The company is very well capitalized with $1.4 bln in a committed, undrawn credit facility.
Kuigi mured on olemas ja nagu näha, võib pauk ka luuavarrest tulla, siis tunduvad MFi mured hetkel natuke üle paisutatud. Üks paljudest kuulujuttudest...
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Jah, aga kui on piisavalt palju kuulujutte, siis saab mõnna bankruni korraldada. Selline self-fulfilling ennustus: shordid stocki, vaadatakse, et midagi viltu, sest aktsia kukub, shorditakse ka, kliendid muutuvad murelikuks, et äkki langusel põhjus taga, tõmbavad raha välja, tekkibki põhjus, firma pekkis ja shordid õnnelik. Pakun, et sellist skeemi tehakse selle nädala jooksul veel korduvalt erinevate ohvritega.
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Jah, eks see bankrun praegu ka päris hästi toimib, kaasa arvatud MFi puhul. Suured kalad ajavad papi kokku ja viimasena ärkavad prügikalad saavad valusalt vastu pükse.
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kram, kas nii veaks ikka reaalsuses välja? ei tahaks uskuda kuidagi, et BSC aeti meelega bankrunni.
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mõtlen nii, et keegi 80 usdi peal mõtles, et lets kill this shit
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Ei usu, et jim BSC-d mõtles. Aga kui BSC juba ees ootamas ning hirm üleüldine, siis mõne väiksema ja probleemidele tundlikuma tegijaga võiks proovida küll. Või vähemalt sellele kaasa aidata ja natukenegi paanikat tekitada, millest peaks täitsa piisama.
