Börsipäev 24. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Nädal on vaikselt algamas, euroopa turud, siinhulgas balti turud täna suletud.
Venemaa on avatud ning kaupleb hetkel -0.2% madalamal. -
Bear Stearnsi investorite rahustamiseks on J. P. Morgan pidamas läbirääkimisi, et tõsta varem pakutud aktsiapõhist ostuhinda $2 pealt $10-ni. Tingimused peab heaks kiitma ka Föderaalreserv, kes väljavaatest väga rõõmustatud ei ole. Seega jääb õhku võimalus, et reaalse tehinguni uue hinna juures ei jõuta.
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Kas USA turg on avatud täna?
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Jah
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Tänan!
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BSC eelturul 9 USD ehk +50%
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Ja juba +63.59% ehk $9.75
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Federal Housing Finance Board raises FHLB mortgage bond limit - Bloomberg
Federal home loan banks limit on MBS raised to 600% of capital -
Punk Ziegel kärbib Bank of America FY08 prognoose $2.98 peale aktsia kohta, eelneva $3.81 pealt (konsensus $3.77).
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Punk Ziegeli negatiivse kommentarri sõnastus Bear Stearnsi kohta väärib eraldi välja toomist:
Punk Ziegel analyst, on CNBC, believes that BSC is worth 'nothing' and that any price over 'nothing' paid for BSC is 'too much'. Says that if JP Morgan (JPM) steps up and pays $10/share of BSC, there are going to be people selling JPM 'pretty aggressively'.
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Thomson FX hub: Chicago Fed index indicates recession has probably begun
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's National Activity Index for February sent a signal that a recession has probably begun in the US.
The February reading for the National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -1.04 from -0.68 in January, with all four broad categories in the index negative. It was the three-month moving average of the NAI which the Chicago Fed says created the recession signal.
It was below the -0.70 'threshold' at -0.87 for February and 'such an occurrence following a period of economic expansion indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun,' the release said.
Worse still, downward revisions to previous data, especially employment, cut the previous two months below the -0.70 threshold as well, to -0.73 in January and -0.78 in December, making three consecutive months of recessionary indicators.
The February three-month moving average also 'indicates low inflationary pressures from economic activity over the coming year.
The Chicago Fed's NAI is a weighted average of 85 national indicators of economic activity in four categories: production and income, employment, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders and inventories.
Info indikaatori kohta: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) -
Kas keegi suudab Punk Ziegeli Bove'i kohta midagi positiivset ka meenutada, mõni hea call vms? Mina mäletan põhiliselt seda, et ta upgrades C Buy peale umbes $30 juures ja on all the way down kisanud, kui hea aktsia see on. Turg pole nõustunud.
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jim, Punk Ziegel langetas BSC hinnasihti $45 peale 11. märtsil, mil aktsia kauples veel $60 eest.
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Euroopas paljud börsid suletud, kuid USA börs täna lahti ning päeva alustatakse plusspoolelt.
Saksamaa DAX N/A (börs suletud)
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 N/A (börs suletud)
Inglismaa FTSE 100 N/A (börs suletud)
Hispaania IBEX N/A (börs suletud)
Venemaa MICEX +0.47%
Poola WIG N/A (börs suletud)
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.02%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -4.51%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.81%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.60%
Tai Set +0.65%
India Sensex +1.96%
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The Slippery Slope of Hope
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/24/2008 8:44 AM EDT
We judge a man's wisdom by his hope.
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
There is an old saying that in a bear market, stocks slide down a slope of hope. Investors have a great tendency to be optimistic, and they constantly try to declare that the worst is over and that we are ready to start an uptrend.
The real pain and despair of a bear market comes when those hopes go unrewarded. Nothing is more discouraging than to wrongfully believe that the worst is over. That is what makes investors want to give us. Bottoms in the market come when there is little talk that we have seen the worst. They don't come when you have the New York Times, Barron's and numerous commentators on this site declaring that the bottom is in and we are ready to go back up.
The great focus on all the recent problems in the financial sector and their recent bounce is providing good intellectual arguments for some hope at this point. Who doesn't want to believe the Fed is doing the right things and that the banks have seen the worst?
At this point the major indices are showing some signs of holding above recent support and the big swings from day to day have left many folks poorly positioned for upside. As a result they send you chasing things higher and producing sharp spikes, which causes those with high levels of cash to try to get at least some exposure.
While the market has some technical potential for a further bounce the high level of hope out there in the popular press seems particularly dangerous. There are still very few good longer term setup, but in the short term some further bounces on hope that the financials have priced in the worst wouldn't come as a surprise.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TIF +11.4%, CFSG +5.3% WAG +3.3%, ACMR +1.3%... M&A news: BSC +67.8% (several reports out that JPMorgan is in negotiations to raise Bear Stearns bid to $10/share)... Select Taiwan names showing strength after stocks gain 4% in Taiwan trading following presidential election: TWN +9.2%, SPIL +8.8% (also initiated with Buy at Standpoint), EWT +6.7%, TSM +6.1%, UMC +3.7%... Other news: FMT +81.8% (announces sale of mortgage servicing rights), CIT +16.6% (held conference after close on Thursday regarding liquidity actions; in talks with overseas banks - WSJ; upgraded to Buy at Stifel), MTEX +11.3% (reaches settlement in securities class-action lawsuit; admits no wrongdoing), CYTK +8.5% (announces positive results from an interim analysis of an ongoing Phase IIa clinical trial of CK-1827452 in patients with stable heart failure), XMSR +7.0% (FCC may be nearing Sirius-XM decision - WSJ), RATE +6.5% (mentioned positively in Barron's), IBN +5.7% (still checking), RAD +5.5% (up in sympathy with WAG), SIRI +5.2% (FCC may be nearing Sirius-XM decision - WSJ), STP +4.6% (signs 8-yr polysilicon supply agreement with DC Chemical), SEED +3.5% (updates genetically modified pipeline; phytase corn is expected to be commercially launched in 2009), VMW +2.3% (announces a multi-year initiative aimed at expanding its India-based research and development operations. Co will invest $100 mln in India by 2010), NUAN +2.1% (Samsung Electronics signs multi-year global agreement with Nuance Mobile; terms not disclosed), ORCL +2.0% (discloses in 8-k that it entered into a new $2 bln revolving credit agreement), PETD +2.0% (files form 10-K;accounting unchanged following resolution of SEC comment letter),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SMOD -13.1%, EGLS -11.4%, SHW -7.5%, MEG -4.8%, PALM -4.7%... M&A news: JPM -1.1% (several reports out that JPM may have to raise bid for BSC to $10/share)... Other news: MALL -13.9% (giving up some of Thursday's late surge), AYR -10.2% (decreases dividend to $0.25 from $0.70 last qtr), VRNM -8.0% (announced that its Form 10-K filed with the SEC on 3/17 included an audit opinion that contained a going concern qualification), TMA -7.1% (postpones pricing on $1 bln offering to Monday - DJ), CC -6.8% (activists circle Circuit City - WSJ), SRVY -2.1% (updates estimate for litigation-related expenses to $800K-$1 mln)... Analyst downgrades: SIGI -3.5% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA and downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James ), HERO -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Capital One Southcoast), AUXL -2.6% (downgraded to Sell at Merriman), LEH -1.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Oppenheimer), SMA -1.4% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wachovia), WFC -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Baird). -
näikse nii, et JP Morgani kinnitus on väljas BSC 10 USD pakkumise osas?
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10:00 February Existing Home Sales 5.03mln vs 4.85 mln consensus, m/m change +2.9%
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BSC hetkel juba $12.5.
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Mediaanmaja hind langes eelmise aasta sama kuuga võrreldes 8% ning suvistest tippudest on alla tuldud ca 15%, kuid tundub, et langevad hinnad on aitamas ka maju müüa. Stabiliseerumine majadeturul on kindlasti see, mida turg vajab, aga kindlasti tasub meeles hoida, et stabiliseerumine on pikk protsess ning majade müüginumber siit kiiresti siiski põrkamas ei ole.
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oodatust paremate numbrites on hetkel ilmselt oluline osa ka madalatel ootustel, seda nii majade müügi osas kui ka näiteks ettevõtete tulemuste puhul
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langevad hinnad mitte ei aita ainult maju müüa, vaid suurendavad ka müüki tulevate majade hulka, sest laenude tagatise väärtus langeb alla lubatud piiri, allakäigu spiraali murdmine on tõepoolest väga vaevaline
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Kas BSC diili võib hetkel lõppenuks lugeda: müüja (BSC) rahul, ostja (JPM) rahul... või siiski... FED pole oma õnnistust veel andnud?! Kaua Fed seda kuuma kartulit veeterada veel võib ning kuna lõplik selgus saabub?
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parim mõte on mitte puutuda BSC-d. who the f knows..
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New bid, old bid, cancelled bid? Shareholder court case? Siin on võimalusi ikka päris palju ja pean nõustuma abesiki'ga.
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Tänase suure rallipäeva käive on ikka väga nadi - kui nii edasi läheb, võib päeva lõpus närvilisus välja lüüa.
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Lühiajalise pullina tõdeksin - shordid pole õieti veel katma asunudki. Aga jah, eks päeva lõpp on võtmeküsimus.
