Börsipäev 13. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna kell 15.30 avaldatakse USA inflatsiooni kasvunumbrid ning WSJ on turu ootused sarkastiliselt kokku võtnud:
Economists, on average, think the CPI rose by about 3.9% from a year ago, driven mainly by soaring gasoline prices. So-called core CPI, which excludes such unimportant items as food and energy, likely rose 2.3%.
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Iirimaal on täna EU teemaline referendum. Kas kellegil on aimu millal esimesed tulemused võiksid tulla?
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Postimehe vahendusel: Häälte lugemine algab Eesti aja järgi kell 11, tulemused peaksid selguma pärast kella 17.
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Venemaal näib börs mitmendat päeva kinni olevat - huvitav mis pidu nad jälle panevad?
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Mingid okupeerimiste-küüditamiste aastapäevad?
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Igaksjuhuks küsin, et kas 11:00 ikka hommikul ja 17:00 pärastlõunal? Kuskilt oli meelde jäänud et exit polle pole. Kas indikatiivset infot kusagilt varem saada pole?
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Juba nägin, 08:00 GMT algab lugemine = 11:00 Tallinn
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Parim ülevaade vast kohalikult meedialt: http://www.ireland.com/focus/thelisbontreaty/
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Kui keegi referendumi tulemuse saaks võiks postida :P
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Venemaal oli eile Venemaa päev ehk iseseisvuspäev. :)
Ja täna lihtsalt pidu jätkub. -
Varajane indikatsioon: EI!!!
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U.S. video game sales up 37 percent in May
maksutagastused on leidnud kasutust? :) -
täiesti arusaadav. Inimesed enam autodega sõita ei täi, istuvad kodus ja lammutavad GTA's oma emotsioone välja elada...
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Reede 13 pole S&P 500 põhjal ajalooliselt tavalistest päevadest erinenud. Siiski on indeks sel õnnetul päeval veidi positiivsemalt sulgunud viimase kümne aasta jooksul.
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May 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- were reported on 261,255 properties during the month, a 7% increase from the previous month and a 48% increase from May 2007. The report also shows one in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month
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... which pushed the total inventory of bank-owned REOs in our database to more than 700,000."
Aprillis oli pending home sales +6,3% vs ootus -0,4% ja uute majade laovarude seis näitas üle hulga aja vähenemise märki
päris huvitav vaadata kuidas mõningase viiteajaga pankade kätte koonduv kinnisvara majade müüki edaspidi mõjutab ... aprilli numbrite põhjal turu stabiliseerumise osas liigsesse optimismi pole igal juhul mõtet kalduda -
Videomängude kõva müügi taga on ilmselt Take-Two GTA IV launch aprilli lõpus.
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Henno: ei maksa muidugi liigsesse optimismi kalduda, aga ajaloos on üllataval kombel teada ka eriskummalisi juhuseid, kus pankade kätte koonduvate varade hinnad on edaspidi hoopis tõusnud, mitte langenud.
sahtel: seda ma just kirjutasin -
GTA IV on päris omapärane mäng, mängisin selle ka mai alguses läbi, alguses mõtlesin, et lihtsan huvipärast ostan/vaatan milline see mäng on, aga hiljem ei saanud enam pulti käest ära, asi on ikka tõeliselt reaalseks juba tehtud, ma kujutan ette, et kui hakatakse 2009/2010 aastal uusi versioone sellest tegema, siis ostjatest puudust ei tohiks küll olla.
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kristjan
kuna pankade hakkab massiliselt kinnisvara koonduma alles peale järsemat hinnalangust, mis võib vabalt olla languse lõppfaas, siis ei ole tegelikult midagi eriskummalist selles kui selle vara hinnad tõusma hakkavad
oskad Sa vastata ka küsimusele kas USA pankade bilansid on täna piisavalt tugevad, et vara hinnatõusu ootuses seisma jätta või lisandub see kinnisvara koheselt müügis olevate majade numbrile? muidugi ... see on oluline rohkem siis kui eeldada, et minema jalutanud omanikud seda juba varem müüa ei üritanud - sel juhul jääb müügis olevate majade arv samaks, aga vahetub müüja -
May Core CPI MoM +0.2 vs +0.2%
May CPI y/y +4.2% vs +3.9% consensus
May CPI MoM +0.6 vs +0.5% consensus
May Core CPI y/y +2.3% vs +2.3% consensus -
Jah, bilansid on ilgelt tugevad USA pankadel, sellepärast igapäevaselt tehaksegi räi0gelt dilutevad secondary & convertible offeringe.. just for fun!
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Henno: ehk leiad siit mõningase kaevamisega vastuse. Varsti hakatakse minu arvates asjadele jälle pisut rohkem TB moodi vaatama, nii et kannatust.
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Henno, kui sa tahad pankadesse investeerimisel lähtuda nende bilanssidest, siis oled küll vale sektori otsa komistanud. Selles sektoris töötavad ühed nutikamad finantsgeeniused, kes teavad väga hästi, mida tavaline vend enne invest otsust vaatab.
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arkok ... ma küll ei rääkinud sõnagi soovist pankadesse investeerida, aga Sinu rahustamiseks täpsustan siiski, et mind huvitas antud kontekstis konkreetselt küsimus kuidas mõjutab pankade kätte koonduva kinnisvara hulk majade müüki lähikuudel
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Saksamaa DAX -0.19%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.40%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.48%
Hispaania IBEX +0.36%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG -0.26%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.61%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.87%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.00%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.33%
Tai Set -1.19%
India Sensex -0.40%
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Capitalizing on the Power of Patience
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/13/2008 9:16 AM EDT
The greatest power is often simple patience.
--E. Joseph Cossman
With the market dancing to the tune of headline news, the best approach is to stay patient. Crude oil prices, Lehman Brothers (LEH) , inflation concerns, housing, debt issues and the latest headlines are driving the market in random fashion as we deal with an ugly looking technical pattern in the major indices.
All the major indices have broken down from the rally off the March low, and the big question now is whether or not they are going to test the lows we hit earlier this year. We have gone fast enough to give us an oversold bounce, but there is no question that the technical picture is now quite negative.
What we have to do at this point is make sure we are properly positioned with a defensive stance, and then remain patient while the market sorts things out. However, it is important that you don't embrace a patient approach if you are still holding a lot of vulnerable stocks and hoping they are going to quickly bounce back.
The power of patience comes only when you are properly positioned to begin with. Too many investors make the mistake of doing nothing, as the character of the market changes and then they sit and hope that patience will bail them out. In downtrends and bear markets, that is a recipe for major problems.
If you aren't lightly invested already, make sure you set some hard and fast exit points just in case things start to deteriorate further. Don't think just because you haven't acted already that you shouldn't do anything. Treat your stocks as if you had just bought them, and then consider what moves you would make to ensure that your capital is safe and sound. Whether you have unrealized gains or losses is irrelevant. The goal is to position yourself properly at this point, and then to be patient as opportunities arise.
The market is getting a pretty good bounce this morning following slightly higher-than-expected inflation numbers. Investors were obviously worried about some bad numbers and are feeling a bit relieved. Thursday saw a very poor bounce attempt, but we are still oversold, and the bulls are going to give it another go. Oil has been the ultimate arbiter of the action lately, so even if we do get some relief from inflation worries, it can be easily undone if crude ramps up again as it did last Friday.
Stay patient or very short term. This is a market in flux, and the best opportunities are going to need time to set up.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SWHC +11.1%, CPST +8.5% (light volume), PWRD +8.1%, LSCC +4.9% STLD +3.1%, ESMK +1.5%... Other news: SEED +7.9% (announces new seed approvals: 3 new corn hybrid seeds and 1 GM cotton seed), LCC +5.9% (accelerates business model transformation; reducing headcount by ~1,700), RBS +4.9% (Babcock Group to buy RBS train unit for $7 bln - Bloomberg.com), CHDX +4.2% (quantifies fourth quarter charges), AMR +3.6% (still checking), MF +3.4% (secures bank commitment of $450 mln), COG +3.1% (will replace BC in the S&P 500), AZ +3.1% (still checking), MEE +2.4% (replace OMX in the S&P 500), RRC +2.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), UBS +2.2% (announces 99.4% take-up rate in rights issue - Reuters), LEH +1.6% (there has not been any new developments; last night after the close a CNBC commentator said BLK is not interested in bidding for LEH, and that BX has not commented on possible interest), PBR +1.4% (Petrobras Brasileiro, BG find more oil in Brazil's Santos Basin - Bloomberg.com)... Analyst upgrades: DMAN +2.1% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FNSR -9.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Piper), BNHN -5.3% (also downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc Capital Mkts)... Other news: CYTX -10.9% (University of California loses rights to '231 patent licensed to Cytori; Ruling unrelated to Celution System family of products), AZK -3.3% (defines gold targets and commences exploration program at Kipawa), KEY -3.2% (prices an 85.1 mln share common stock offering at $11.75/share), ACGY -3.0% (announces the award of a second call-off contract under the offshore engineering and construction Frame Agreement with DONG Energy for approximately $60 mln), ACH -2.9% (still checking), YHOO -2.5% (seeing continued weakness after confirming before the close yesterday that talks with MSFT have concluded; co also announced plans to strengthen competitive position in online advertising through non-exclusive agreement with Google ), OMX -2.3% (will replace MEE in the S&P SmallCap 600), TYPE -2.3% (prices a 5 mln share common stock offering at $12/share), BC -1.6% (to replace COG in the S&P SmallCap 600), RDS.A -1.6% (still checking), CAG -1.4% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney)... Analyst downgrades: NDAQ -4.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), FITB -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital). -
June University of Michigan Sentiment-prelim 56.7 vs 59.0 consensus
turg ootas ilmselt veel hullemat ... esmane reaktsioon isegi üles -
Enne olid mingid rumorid paarkümmend minutit varem väljas, et numbrid on lekkinud ja number on 56. Vbla selle pärast
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Iirlastelt tuli EI
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7452171.stm -
Joel, kas sa hoiad oma SPY-d? Ja kui pika horisondiga?
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Bubble13, ajahorisont nüüd oodatust pikemaks läinud, võib mu suunas näppu nüüd viibutada : ) Aga positsioon väike, nii et jätame veel lahti.
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Joel, ma lihtsalt optsioonidega sees, ja ainult päevasiseselt.
Eile viskasin maha 15 % kasumiga (oleks max saanud 75%), täna ei näppinud...
Turg on suhteliselt närviline, ei julge väga pikalt hoida ka, ja pikkade sihtidega ei mängi. -
www.ostamekinnisvara.ee - Ostuekspress OÜ
Hea äriidee!
Kes on need investorid seal taga? Ilmselt osa jõukaid eraisikuid (10-15MEEK mahuga), kuid millised firmad? Gild... kes veel? -
Reede õhtul lisas Moody Lehmanni (LEH) A1 krediidireitingu vaatluse alla võimalusega reitingut langetada. Põhjuseks siis äsja teatatud CFO ja COO vallandamine, frantšiisi nõrgenemine, laiaulatuslike mahakirjutamiste jätkumise võimalused.
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Mis võiks olla selle panga agenda mis Ostuekspressile laenu annab? Kas see agenda võiks olla piisav motivatsioon pangale endale sellesarnase kehandi ellu kutsumiseks?
