Börsipäev 25. juuni - Fedi päev
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna on Föderaalreservi otsuse päev. Võrreldes viimaste kordadega on sedapuhku ootused muutunud. Kui varem oli Fedi päevadel alatihti küsimus, et kas langetatakse 25, 50 või 75 bipslit, siis täna ollakse üpriski suurel konsensusel, et intressimäärad jäetakse täna muutmata. Aga mis saab edasi? Oodatakse, et Fed kasutab sõnastuses pisut rangemat retoorikat kui varem ning et kui mitte tegudes, siis vähemasti sõnades üritatakse inimeste inflatsiooniootusi alla suruda. Kui seeläbi õnnestuks ka dollarit tugevdada ja nafta hinda langetada, oleks ka aktsiaturgudel põhjust rõõmustamiseks. Siiski, väga karmi (hawkish) sõnastust ja võimalikku ranget intressimäärapoliitikat ei pruugita hästi vastu võtta, seega tuleb leida selline kuldne kesktee, kus rõhutataks, et majandust tuleb jätkuvalt toetada, kuid karmistamine on inflatsiooni ohjeldamiseks päevakorras.
Fedi otsus siis Eesti aja järgi kell 21.15. -
Küsitlused kinnitavad Obama edu McCaini ees USA presidendivalimistel.
Bloombergi ja Los Angeles Timesi poolt läbi viidud küsitlus näitab, et senaator B. Obama on kindlustanud oma edu USA presidendivalimistel peamise riivali J. McCaini ees 15 protsendile. Küsitlus arvestas ka kahe iseseisva kandidaadiga valmiste lõppvoorus, millest selgus, et viimased saaksid rohkem hääli McCaini valijate seast. Seetõttu oleks Obamale kasulik kui valimistest novembris võtaksid osa ka Bob Barr ja Ralph Nader, keda toetab kokku umbes 7 protsenti valijaskonnast. Kui valimiste lõppvoorus peaksid osalema vaid Obama ja McCain oleks esimesel siiski 12 protsendiline edu McCaini ees.
Peaaegu pooled valijad leiavad, et valimiste tähtsaim teema on USA majandus. Küsitlus näitab, et valijad eelistavad Obama tervishoiuprogrammi ja maksureforme McCaini muudatustele. Samuti usutakse, et Obama on võimeline taastama Washingtoni maine väljaspool USA. Obama suurimaks nõrkuseks on aga kogemus ja paljud leiavad, et tegu on liialt naiivse ja kogenematu liidriga.
McCain suurimaks väljakutseks on USA nõrgenev positsioon geopoliitikas ja majanduses. Kõigest 13 protsenti küsitletutest leidsid, et USA liigub õiges suunas ja paljud valijad kardavad, et McCain võib jätkata senist liini välispoliitikas. McCain on kaotanud oma edu ka Iraagi sõja suhtes ning 2/3 ameeriklastest pooldab vägede väljaviimist kohe või aasta jooksul.
Viimaste küsitluste põhjal on Obama väljavaated lõppvalmistel pärast demokraadist rivaali H. Clintoni edestamist eelvalimistel üha suurenenud. Praegune negatiivne meeleolu USA majanduse suhtes on kahandanud McCaini võimalusi hoidmaks presidendiametit ka järgneval aastatel vabariiklaste käes.
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Föderaalreservi esimees külvab spekulatsioone.
Viimastel päevadel on kõva diskussiooni pakkunud Föderaalreservi esimehe Ben S. Bernanke pressikonverents, kus ta väljendas, et Ameerika majandus on üha tugevnevas inflatsiooni kerkimise ohus, mis avaldab ka langevale dollarile omakorda negatiivset mõju. Seepeale börsidel panustasid aktsionärid inressimäära tõusu peale, kuigi majandusteadlased usuvad endiselt baasintressimäära muutmata jätmist vähemalt kuni aastani 2009. Scott Anderson, vanem ökonomist pangast Wells Fargo & Co arvab, et Bernanke tekitas oma jutuga liialt spekulatsioone, mis võivad lõppkokkuvõttes krediidikriisi veelgi halvendada ilma inflatsiooni langetamata. Föderaalreservi esimees muutis oma tooni peale seda, kui tõusvad energia- ja importhinnad ohustasid tarbijahinna ootusi veelgi tõsta. Näiteks kütusehinnad on Ameerikas viimase aastaga tõusnud tervelt 37% ning muud importhinnad v.a. kütus kasvasid viimati sama kiirelt aastal 1988.
Järgmised paar kuud peaksid spekulatsioonid jälitama paljusid kauplejaid aktsiaturgudel. Hetkel jagunevad intressimäära tõstmise arvamused Chicago Board of Trade andmetel futuuride lepingute põhjal nii, et 36% usub intressimäära tõstmisesse augustis ja 93% arvab et määra tõstetakse septembris. William Ford, endine Atlanta Föderaaalreservi juht tõdes, et kas inflatsiooni näitajad hakkavad stabiliseeruma või otsustab Fed intressimäära tõstmise kasuks. Ühendriikide tarbijad prognoosivad järgmiseks viieks aastaks hindade kallinemist tervelt 3.4% aasta kohta.
Bernanke avaldas lootust, et majanduse aeglustumine peaks kaasa tooma ka hindade tõususurve vähenemise. Aasta esimeses kvartalis kasvas Ameerika Ühendriikide SKP 0.9%, mis on ühtlasi ka viimase viie aasta halvim tulemus. Majanduse jahtumine nõrgendab veelgi enam Ühendriikide panku ning annab ka uut hoogu kinnisvara langusele. Bloombergi arvates keerleb põhiline argumentatsioon selle umber, et kas Föderaalreserv on valmis riskima kõrgema inflatsiooniga ja möödapääsmatu stagnatsiooniga või võetakse vastu otsus tõsta intressimäära, mis tähendab väiksemat majanduslangust ning inflatsiooni piiramist juba täna
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Merck (MRK), mis on oma atraktiivse valuatsiooniga hoolimata sektori ees seisvatest probleemide hunnikust minu jaoks viimastel nädalatel tõsiseks huviobjektiks olnud, saab täna paraku 'overweight' soovituse JPMorganilt. Tundub, et farmaatsiasektori odav hinnastatus on teisigi huvilisi kohale meelitamas...
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MON prelim $1.45 vs $1.34 First Call consensus; revs $3.59 bln vs $3.71 bln First Call consensus
MON sees FY08 $3.63 vs $3.39 First Call consensus, prior guidance $3.40 -
Saksamaa DAX +0.45%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.83%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.45%
Hispaania IBEX +0.83%
Venemaa MICEX +0.14%
Poola WIG -0.29%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.14%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.80%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.64%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +4.06%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.23%
Tai Set +2.11%
India Sensex +0.80%
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Fed's in a Tough Spot
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/25/2008 8:53 AM EDT
When future historians look back on our way of curing inflation, they'll probably compare it to bloodletting in the Middle Ages.
-- Lee Iacocca
The very poor action in the market recently is due in large part to increased concerns over inflation. The market could deal with a slowing economy, because the Fed can deal with that quite easily by simply cutting interest rates. Inflation, though, is a much more difficult problem, because raising rates obviously slows the economy, and that is tough medicine when things are as gloomy as they are now.
It is inflation that is the issue out there, and the Fed interest rate decision today is going to give us some insight into what approach Ben Bernanke and his crew is likely to take. The market isn't expecting any interest rate moves today, but it isn't at all sure what to expect in the policy statement.
We already have comments this morning from the European Central Bank making it clear that it is concerned about inflation and likely to raise rates in May. In addition, Brazil has raised its inflation forecast to 6% from 4.6% and is looking for it to peak at 6.3% in the third quarter.
This rapidly increasing concern over inflation comes against a backdrop of rapidly diminishing investor sentiment. Consumer sentiment is hitting record low levels; investor sentiment this morning show far more bears than bulls, and the newspaper headlines about the real estate market are downright depressing.
So we have inflationary concerns, poor economic and market sentiment and very ugly technical patterns in all the major indices as we await the Fed's comments today. So what is an investor to do at this point?
It would be naïve to expect that the Fed is going to turn the tide of the market at this point. It might be able to produce some sort of bounce if it says the right things in the face of the intense gloominess out there, but anyone looking for a quick and easy recovery by this market is likely to be disappointed.
The Fed is in a pretty ugly bind, and most astute market players realize that. It can't raise rates at this point without doing political damage and causing issues for our fragile economy, but it certainly can't afford to be dovish about inflation, which will kill the dollar even further and bolster oil and commodity inflation, which are already major problems.
The likelihood is that that Fed is going to talk tough about inflation, ensure us of its vigilance, and do nothing. That might be enough to give us a little boost given that things are becoming quite negative, but a relief bounce at this point is more likely a selling opportunity than the beginning of a sustainable bottom.
We have a slightly positive open on the way as oil prices pull back a tad and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet talks tough about inflation. The longer-term technical picture looks horrible, but traders will be looking to the Fed to stir things up and give us some short-term opportunities.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JBL +8.1% (also upgraded to Buy at Merrill), COMS +5.9%, AVAV +5.9% PRXL +5.5% (light volume), SLAB +4.6% (also announces plans to acquire Integration Associates; expected to be slightly dilutive to 2008 earnings, accretive in 2009), WMB +4.0%, DF +2.8%... M&A news: IONA +8.6% (Progress Software to acquire IONA Technologies for $4.05/share in cash)... Select European financials showing strength: BCS +5.7% (Barclays to shore up finances with $8.86 bln share issue - WSJ), UBS +2.8% (hires Lazard for review - NY Post), CS +2.6%, HBC +1.2%... Other news: NYNY +17.4% (Empire Resorts and Concord Associates announce New York State Legislature approves development of $1 bln new Concord Resort Destination), CRXL +8.8% (DSM Biologics and CRXL announce that they have entered into an agreement with Avid Bioservices to join their Vendor Network), LUX +6.6% (rises on planned confirmation of forecasts - Bloomberg.com), VM +6.2% (Financial Times reports co is to acquire the US mobile phone operation controlled by SKM of South Korea), NOK +5.4% (will add public wireless LAN access to its handsets in Japan in a bid to keep pace with smaller Japanese rivals - Reuters), MDCO +5.3% (discloses the United States House of Representatives passed a bill that would provide PTO with discretion to consider patent extension applications), GTI +4.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), WX +4.4% (Covance and WuXi PharmaTech to form a joint venture to provide preclinical services in China), TNB +3.5% (sells minority interest in Leviton Manufacturing for $300 mln; expects after-tax gain of ~$1.70 in Q2), VE +2.2% (still checking), OII +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GFI +1.8% (Gold Fields' operational results for Q408 will be better than expected), RDS.A +1.4% (still checking), RMBS +1.4% (asks for ban on U.S. sales of Hynix chips after victory - Bloomberg.com)... Analyst comments: NDAQ +3.9% (upgraded to Buy at Piper), BP +2.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), NPBC +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Boenning & Scattergood), RGC +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at BMO), T +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: APOG -11.1%, ROK -8.0% (light volume), SONC -6.1% (downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm), GIS -2.2% (light volume), MON -1.3%... Small-cap oil & gas names modestly pulling back after recent momentum: PDO -11.0%, ROYL -3.0%, IVAN -2.1%, FPP -1.8%... Other news: STEM -7.3% (files for mixed securities offering of up to $100 mln), ABB -3.5% (still checking), MCO -3.0% (SEC wants investors to reduce reliance on ratings - Bloomberg.com), GR -2.9% (still checking), TGIC -2.8% (it approved transitioning the business of its primary insurance operating subsidiary, Triad Guaranty Insurance Corp), ESLR -2.7% (announces offering of $300 mln of senior convertible notes and expected entry into a stock lending agreement and capped call transaction), RTP -1.7% (still checking)... Analyst comments: BA -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman), RPM -2.7% (downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc). -
Kindlustajad kõiguvad senimaani oma põhjade läheduses ning tänane turualguse positiivsus võib levida ka nendeni. Võiks olla huvitavad päevatreidid.
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Sotheby's: London auctions start off strong; Christie's evening sale results were strong and give confidence ahead of BID's auction - JMP Securities
JMP Securities notes that the Christie's London Impressionist and Modern Art evening sale was marked by a solid supply of artwork and a large crowd. They note Hammer results were Euro 127 mln ($250 mln), at the high end of the pre-sale range of Euro 91-127 mln ($179-250 mln). Aggregate sales were up an estimated 19% over last year. Firm says these results and the strong attendance give them confidence ahead of BID's auction, and the art market continues to be resilient despite the weak US economy.
BID hetkel 4.7% plussis ning loodetavasti suudab terve nädala kestev oksjonite maraton pöörde ka aktsia hinda.
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MBIA Inc (MBI) ongi -2.5% langusest $4.76 pealt põrganud, hetkel +2.65% $5.04 tasemel.
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Toornafta varud kasvasid, kuigi oodati vähenemist. Mootorkütuste ja distillaatide varude muutus vastavalt ootustele. Negatiivne data nafta jaoks on musta kulla 2% allapoole veeretanud.
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 803K (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 1100K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 153K (Bloomberg consensus is at unchanged); distillate inventories had a build of 2823K (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 2000K). -
MBI on turu üldise positiivsusega jõudnud juba +5.31% tõusu $5.16 tasemele, sellelt tasemelt kataks positsiooni.
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Alari, millal täpselt sa MBI-d soovitasid osta?
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to: enek
Juhtisin tähelepanu kindlustajate liikumisele 20 minutit peale turu algust. -
Kindlustajad? AIG?
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Päris huvitavalt liigub ka palju pihta saanud WM, tasuks radaril hoida.
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Keskpäeva kokkuvõte:
Sector Leaders:
Commercial Banks- KBE +3.2%, Regional Banks- KRE +3.2%, RKH +2.7%, Retailers- XRT +2.8%, RTH +2.0%, Homebuilders- XHB +2.3%, Semis- IGW +2.3%, SMH +2.3%, Finance- XLF +2.2%, IYF +1.5%, Software- SWH +2.3%
Sector Laggards:
Gasoline- UGA -3.0%, Oil- USO -3.0%, Coal- KOL -2.7%, Nat. Gas- UNG -2.7%, Heating Oil- UHN -2.6%, Energy- OIH -2.4%, IYE -2.1%, XLE -1.8%, Ad/Chem- MOO -2.3%, Gold Miners- GDX -2.2%
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As expected, the FOMC leaves Fed Funds tgt unchanged at 2.00%
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Fed says upside risk to inflation, expecatations have risen
Fed says it expects inflationn to moderate
FOMC says Uncertainty Over Inflation Outlook Is High -
Miks varem välja tuli?
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Kokkuvõtteks:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent. Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting. -
Täna peale turge avaldavad tulemused Research In Motion (RIMM) ja Oracle (ORCL), mis kujundab kindlasti kogu tehnoloogiasektori liikumist ning annab aimu tenoloogiasektori ettevõtete kvartali käekäigust, kuna ootused väga kõrgel kogu sektori osas.
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hmm... MON tuli ikka täna ju?
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Õigus, MON-il tulemused juba väljas.
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Sector Leaders:
Retailers- XRT +3.1%, RTH +2.5%, Semis- IGW +3.0%, SMH +2.8%, Software- SWH +2.8%, Tech.- QQQQ +2.5%, XLK +2.4%, Commercial Banks- KBE +2.1%, Regional Banks- KRE +1.8%, RKH +1.6%, Insurance- KIE +2.0%
Sector Laggards:
Nat. gas- UNG -2.9%, Heating Oil- UHN -2.0%, Gasoline- UGA -1.9%, Oil- USO -1.8%, Livestock Commodities- COW -1.4%, Commodities- DBC -0.90%, GSG -1.4%
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Hoopis rollercoaster ride, DOW käis juba miinuspoolele. Ma ei usu, et siit mingi suurem põrge tuleb. Võibolla jätkub optimismi paariks päevaks. Minumeelest hoopis suurem on tõenäosus, et lähiajal tuleb suurem langus.
