Börsipäev 22. juuli
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Vocus (VOCS) on väike ettevõte, mille turukapitalisatsioon on $600 miljoni ümber. Ettevõte avaldab oma majandustulemused täna peale turgude sulgemist ning on huvitav oma tegutsemisala tõttu.
Vocus pakub online suhtekorraldustarkvara ehk tegutsedes on-demand või teise nimetusega Software as a Service (SaaS) segmendis. Sellisel juhul ei pea kliendid vaeva nägema erinevate programmide installeerimise ja kaasajastamisega ning tarkvara saab kasutada ilma seda välja ostmata. Kui varem kardeti turvalisuse pärast, siis need mured on hajumas ning tarkvara mugav ja kiire kasutuselevõtmine on tõstnud tööstuse aastased kasvumäärad 50% lähedale. Kõige tuntum SaaS pakkuja on Salesforce (CRM), mis müüb kliendihaldustarkvara (CRM).
SaaSi populaarsus on pidevalt kasvanud ning turgu võidetakse mitmelt suurelt tarkvaratootjalt nagu SAP, Oracle või Microsoft. Samas ei maga ka viimased (Oracle ostis paari aaste eest Salesforce'i konkurendi Siebeli) ning näiteks Microsoft teeb suuri pingutusi, et oma ärimudelit paindlikumaks muuta. Ka Microsofti juhtkond ise on tunnistanud, et tulevik ei peitu mitte desktopis, vaid on-demand tarkvaras, mida on võimalik erinevate programmidega ühildada.
Turg ootab Vocuselt tulusid $18.7 miljonit ning EPSi $0.12 (eelmisel aastal $0.04).
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OMXT alla 500 punkti...üle kui pika aja?
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juba 499.40
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Vimpelcom (VIP) on nüüd ametlikult Kambodžas tegutsemas, eile viidi lõpuni 90% osaluse ost Sotelcos. Ettevõtte eest maksti $28 miljonit ning ülejäänud 10% osaluse ostmiseks omatakse optsiooni. Sotelcol on olemas GSM 900/1800, interneti, WiMaxi ja VoIP litsentsid.
Vimpelcom plaanib alustada Kambodžas tegevust üheksa kuu jooksul ning paari aastaga loodetakse jõuda 20%-lise turuosani ehk ca 2 miljoni kliendini. Kambodža majandus kasvab 7% aastas, mobiiltelefonide penetratsioon on ca 15% ning ARPU $10. Hetkel opereerib riigis viis telekomi ning tegemist on väga atraktiivse ja kiiresti kasvava turuga.
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Loodetavasti näeme siis homme Äripäeva ja teiste majanduslehtede esikaanel ilutsemas ühte suurt-suurt pildikest, mis näitab, et OMXT on kukkunud juba alla 500 punkti. Ümmarguste numbrite võlu ju. Ja ehk aitab see kaasa sellele, et siit välja pesta viimased nõrgad käed, kes on Eesti majandusele lõplikult käega löönud ja igasuguse EL-konvergentsi pikaajalise idee ammu maha matnud.
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Madisele plusspunktid selle riigi nime õigekirja eest. Kohalikus trükimeedias seda niiväga tihti ei juhtu.
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Morgan Stanley usub peale eilseid Apple'i (AAPL) tulemusi, et hinnataseme poolest on tegemist mõistliku sisenemiskohaga, kuid paari kuu jooksul jäädakse kauplema pigem vahemikku:
"While we believe last night’s move in AAPL shares presents an attractive valuation entry point (~$146 = 20x FY10 P/E, ex-cash, and just 0.7x earnings growth), we believe AAPL will remain in this range (and potentially trend lower) until we approach new product introductions in September."
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OMXT oli viimati alla 500 punkti 10.02.2005
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Aga tagasi USA turgude juurde. Eilsed numbrid American Expressilt (AXP), Texas Instrumentsilt (TXN) ja nõrgad prognoosid Apple'lt (AAPL) on saatnud futuurid teisel pool ookeani tugevasse miinusse. S&P500 kaupleb protsendi madalamal, Nasdaq kogunisti kaks protsenti. Nii AXP, TXN kui ka AAPL kauplesid eilsel järelturul ca 10% miinuses. Just neil kolmel nimel tuleb täna kindlasti silma peal hoida ja vaadata kui andestava loomusega turg on.
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Täna on OMXV alla 400 punkti. , ehk mõlemil indeksil "ümmargune" tähtpäev.
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Eilses börsipäevas sai kajastatud Morgani soovitust osta enne tulemusi American Movili (AMX) aktsiaid. Seetõttu suudeti päeva alguses tõusva turuga 2.4% plussis kaubelda, kuid lõpuks sulguti ligi sama suures miinuses. Tulemused ise oli vastandlikud: käive ja EBITDA jäid ootustele alla, kuid kasumi osas suudeti prognoose ületada. Kuigi üllatus jäi tulemata, peaks ka aktsia langus olema limiteeritud, kuna Mehhiko tulemused kardetud nõrkust ei näidanud.
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Madis,
Vimpelcom ostis Sotelco omaenda suurima osaniku, Altimo ( Friedmani) käest. Viimasel on muuseas ka korralik osalus Megafonis.
Sotelco ost tundub puhtalt litsentsi ost olevat. Oskab keegi tagamaid või hinda kommenteerida? -
Põhimõtteliselt ongi litsentsi ost, sellepärast on ka hind suhteliselt kommiraha. Mingit vandenõuteooriat ei ole mõtet arendada, tegemist on VIPi strateegilise sooviga laieneda Aasiasse. Vietnami järel tuli Kambodža ning hiljem lisandub Indoneesia.
Ka Megafoni liitmisest on kuulukaid olnud, kuid aravatavasti jääb Venemaa suuruselt kolmas telekom tegutsema ikkagi iseseisvalt. -
Hommikul põgusalt mainitud Salesforce'i (CRM) kohta kaks vastandlikku arvamust:
Citigroup downgrades salesforce.com (CRM) to Hold from Buy and maintains their $80 tgt, based on valuation and believe the co can continue to provide upside to estimates.
Thomas Weisel initiates salesforce.com (CRM) with an Overweight and sets a $90 tgt, as they believe that CRM is the premium name in the Software-as-a-Service market that has a legitimate chance to unseat first tier software competitors and redefine the software market as investors have historically known it.
On üsna tõenäoline, et lähiajal saavad ka Pro lugejad ettevõtte kohta rohkem teada.
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Caterpillar(CAT) oma teise kvartali tulemustega väljas ning aktsiapõhist kasumit näidati $1.74, mida on 20 sendi võrra oodatust rohkem. Müügitulu $13.62 miljardit vs oodatud $12.69 miljardit. Ilusad numbrid.
Prognooside juurde. 2008. aastalt tervikuna oodatakse EPSi ca $6.00, mis vastab oodatud $6.03le ning müügitulu prognoosi tõsteti varasema $47.2 kuni $49.5 miljardi pealt $50 miljardi peale.
Caterpillar tunnistab, et USAs on olukord väga keeruline ja ka Euroopas on majandustingimused kiriesti halvenenud, kuid ometi on ettevõtte toodangu järele väga suur nõudlus: "Never in my 35 plus years with the company have I seen Caterpillar do so well in the face of such a difficult economic climate in the United States. We are on track to deliver our fifth straight year of record profits despite very tough conditions in the United States, declines in Europe and significantly higher material costs, particularly in the second half of the year. Still, for many of our products, supply is very tight, and we are producing as much as we can."
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Viimasel ajal on palju spekuleeritud Jaapani majanduse tuleviku üle, sest pärast ligi 50-protsendilist toornafta hinnatõusu on paljud ökonomistid avaldanud arvamust, et korratakse 1974. aastal toimunut. Jaapani valitsuse hinnangul on aga ebatõenäoline, et majandus vajub stagflatsiooni – majanduse seisund, kus inflatsiooniga kaasneb stagnatsioon – sest aeglane palkade kasv takistab kõrgeid nafta –ja tarbeesemete hindu kandumas üle kaupade hindadesse. Jaapani majandus kasvab aeglases tempos ning töötajate palgad on stabiilsed. Seetõttu importhindade kallinemine ei tohikski vallandada üldist hindade tõusulainet. Halvim stsenaarium on siis, kui Ameerika Ühendriikide majandus peaks langema pikaaegsesse stagnatsiooni. Sellisel juhul võib suureneda ka negatiivse majanduskasvu oht Jaapanis. Saareriigi SKP kasvu on moodustanud umbes 60% ulatuses ekspordid Ameerika Ühendriikidesse.
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All olen ära toonud Caterpillari (CAT) müügitulu kasvud segmentide ja regioonide lõikes varasematel kvartalitel ja viimane tabel siis ka Q2 08 kohta ehk siis täna avaldatud andmed. Võrreldavad näidud Põhja-Ameerikas hakkavad kergemaks minema, mistõttu ka Põhja-Ameerika on plussis võrreldes aasta taguse ajaga:
Q2 07 kasvud Masinad (64% müügitulust) Mootorid (29% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika -14% -8% EAME +35% +27% Ladina-Ameerika +23% +12% Aaasia/Vaikne-Ookean +23% +18% Q3 07 kasvud Masinad (62% müügitulust) Mootorid (31% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika -12% -16% EAME +43% +26% Ladina-Ameerika +23% +6% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +35% +26% Q4 07 kasvud Masinad (66% müügitulust) Mootorid (28% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika -7% -23% EAME +32% +36% Ladina-Ameerika +29% -8% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +40% +31% Q1 08 kasvud Masinad (64% müügitulust) Mootorid (29% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika +3% +3% EAME +27% +33% Ladina-Ameerika +18% +33% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +35% +40% Q2 08 kasvud Masinad (63% müügitulust) Mootorid (31% müügitulust) Põhja-Ameerika +8% +9% EAME +15% +34% Ladina-Ameerika +23% +42% Aasia/Vaikne-Ookean +50% +57% *EAME = Euroopa, Aafrika ja Lähis-Ida
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Üks päris huvitav lugu NY Times'i sulest TiVo (TIVO) ja Amazon'i (AMZN) kohta:
NY Times reports TiVo is trying to crack a decades-old media dream. It wants to turn the television remote control into a tool for buying the products being advertised and promoted on commercials and talk shows. The company, based in Alviso, Calif., will introduce a "product purchase" feature on Tuesday in partnership with the AMZN. Owners of TiVo video recorders will see, in TiVo's various onscreen menus, links to buy products like CDs, DVDs and books that guests are promoting on talk shows like "The Oprah Winfrey Show," "The Late Show With David Letterman" and "The Daily Show." In the months ahead, TiVo plans to begin offering this feature to advertisers and programmers, so that the chance to buy products and have them delivered will be presented to viewers during commercials and even alongside product placements during live shows. -
11. juulil kirjutasin börsipäeva foorumis General Electricu tulemustest ja sellest, et rõhutati suurt nõudlust infrastruktuuri järele:
GE tulemustest:
Kus nähti kasvu regioonide lõikes?
Arenevad turud +20%
Arenenud turud (v.a USA) +26%
USA -2%
Ja kui harudest rääkida, siis rõhutatakse infrastruktuuri kasvu potentsiaali, kus nähakse kolmandalt kvartalilt ca 20%list kasvu.
Täna on sama jutuga väljas ka Caterpillar (CAT), kes lisaks oma ilusatele kasvunumbritele ütleb järgmist: "We need to bring additional capacity on line to support world demand for infrastructure, energy and mining, and to be prepared for the upturn in the United States when it comes. Together with the best dealer network in our industry, Team Caterpillar is well positioned to meet our goals for 2010 and beyond." Ja lisab: "Infrastructure construction should hold up better than building construction"
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sama argument kehtib ka shipperite kohta, nagu DryBulk sektor
seda on nad kogu aeg korrutatud, et maailm ei koosne ainult Hiinast ja USA'st
Arenevate turgude infrastruktuuri investeeringud hoiavad nõudlust ja kaubaliiklust üleval. -
Buck the Trend by Not Bucking the Trend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/22/2008 8:18 AM EDT
Disappointment is a sort of bankruptcy -- the bankruptcy of a soul that expends too much in hope and expectation.
-- Eric Hoffer
All the major earnings reports last night have been disappointing. Apple (AAPL) , American Express (AXP) , Texas Instruments (TXN) , Merck (MRK) and Wachovia (WB) are all trading down sharply this morning after issuing their second-quarter reports.
Part of the problem is that the recent relief rally in financials has eased fears and raised expectations a bit. Market players were once again anxious to embrace the idea that things weren't really that bad and that maybe the worst was over. Unfortunately, the reality, as AXP made quite clear, is that there are some major problems with this economy and we have a long way to go before we have fully discounted them.
I am sometimes accused of being overly negative about the market, but my message remains the same. Don't overanticipate the end of the current downtrend. We are in a bear market, and the major indices are trending down. Yes, we do get some bounces and rallies, which are tradable in the short term, but the big picture is decidedly negative, and we have to respect that fact.
The nature of Wall Street is to always encourage you to find reasons to buy. If the market is trending lower, then every pullback is a buying opportunity that we need to rush in and embrace so we don't miss out on the turn that is going to occur at any minute.
My approach is to not worry about buying until the market proves itself a bit. That means you are likely to miss out on some of the early gains, but that is cheap insurance for not being exposed to the momentum of a downtrending market. Mornings like this, where the reasons behind the weak market become much more obvious, are very painful for the overanxious and always hopeful bulls who want to call every bottom.
My advice to simply stand aside is not well received by many on Wall Street, because they need you to put your money at risk. They are going to keep trying to find reasons you should ignore the fact of the current downtrend and put your precious capital to work. While we might consider their pleas as entertainment, there is no reason to be building positions until the market is acting better.
Fasten your seatbelts -- we have an ugly start and lots more earnings reports to come. It is going to be tough slogging out there if you try to fight the trend.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BJS +9.6%, WGOV +5.8%, UAUA +4.2%, LCC +4.1%, STLD +3.9%, BHI +3.4%, LOGI +2.7%, CPO +2.7%, STI +2.5%, BIIB +2.5%, WU +2.1% (light volume), CAT +2.1%, WAB +2.1%, QLGC +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), AMLN +1.5%, PKG +1.1%, VLTR +1.0%... M&A news: BXG +108.1% (announces it has signed a non-binding letter of intent relating to the acquisition of the co at a price of $15.00/share by Diamond Resorts), FDRY +33.2% (Brocade announces definitive agreement to acquire Foundry Networks for $19.25 a share)... Select European oil/gas names trading higher following strength overseas: BP +2.3%, TOT +1.9%, E +1.1%, RDS.A +1.0%... Other news: WCG +6.2% (to restate 2004, 2005, 2006 and 1Q07 and 2Q07 financials), EXTR +5.7% (up in sympathy with FDRY), VE +5.3% (still checking), PSD +4.0% (Puget Sound Energy and Puget Holdings reach multi-party settlement with parties in merger case being reviewed by Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission), PDE +3.9% (discloses 5.0% stake in 13D filing; confirms Nordea Bank and SeaDrill transaction), PNRA +1.3% (4.7% Holder Shamrock Activist Value Fund discloses actions they believe would enhance shareholder value), WPI +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: BBI +3.3% (upgraded to Buy at Pali Research).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VOD -13.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform at Collins Stewart), TXN -13.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), SNDK -13.0% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup and downgraded to Sell at ThinkPanmure), EXP -12.1%, WB -12.0% (also cut by Fitch; IDR to A+ from AA- -- Bloomberg), MICC -10.6%, AAPL -10.5%, AXP -10.0% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), KEY -8.8% (light volume), HPC -7.5% (light volume), MRK -7.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill and downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), ERIC -6.9%, BSX -5.4%, AMX -4.4% (also trading ex-dividend), RF -3.8%, ALV -3.7%, MHK -3.5%, SGP -3.2%, WASH -3.1% (light volume), FITB -2.9%, FCX -2.3%, DD -1.7%, LNCR -1.5%... M&A news: BRCD -21.0% (Brocade announces definitive agreement to acquire Foundry Networks for $19.25 a share)... Select credit card related cos showing weakness following AXP results: COF -5.1%, DFS -4.2%, V -3.0%, MA -2.6%... Select mortgage/financial names trading lower: FNM -7.0% and FRE -6.9% (Fannie, Freddie books under scrutiny - WSJ), ABK -6.7%, WM -4.2%, LEH -3.9%, UBS -3.6%, NCC -3.4%, ZION -3.2%, MER -3.0%, C -2.9%, BAC -2.0%, MS -1.8%... Select communications-related cos trading lower with several cos reporting disappointing results: TEF -6.9%, DT -6.1%, STM -5.4%, NOK -3.0%, MOT -2.5%, CSCO -2.3%, ALU -2.2%, RIMM -2.1%, JNPR -2.0%, VZ -1.5%, T -1.0%... Other news: AGO -46.7% (Moody's reviews Assured Guaranty's Aaa rating for possible downgrade, co issued response with Q2 guidance; also downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), SGLP -11.8% (showing continued weakness), PAAS -3.7% (reports that expected commissioning of its newest silver mine will be delayed approximately 90 days), BBY -1.6% (showing weakness following disappointing results from both SNDK and TXN)... Analyst comments: SFI -7.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), BMI -3.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Boenning & Scattergood), ADSK -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), CRM -2.7% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MU -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup). -
oijahhhhh
elu treid jäi tegemata
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mis treid?
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WCG
eile kirjutasin sellest -
Panen siia vahepeal siis uuesti lingi meie tulemuste tabelist. Sai just kenasti ära uuendatud.
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Nafta kukub hoogsalt ja aitab niimoodi turgude hommikuse kauplemise miinust kustutada. Barreli hind -3.2% ehk $127.7 septembri delivery eest.
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Ilmselgelt alahindasin WCG uudise olulisust. Punktid speedyle.
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Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid:
Saksamaa DAX -1.14%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.27%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.83%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -3.00%
Venemaa MICEX -1.73%
Poola WIG -0.32%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.98%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.02%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.53%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.53%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.11%
Tai Set 50 -0.85%
India Sensex +1.84%
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Üks päris huvitav kommentaar siia RealMoney alt. seotud investorite karuste nägemusega, millega on nüüdseks ehk pisut liiale mindud. Kasvanud lühikeseks müüdud positsioonide arv on pakkumas põrandata allapoole liikumise riski ees:
Patrick Schultz: "According to a Bloomberg report, investors have amassed enormous short positions across global markets. The article notes that "...more than $1.4 trillion of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third higher than at the start of 2007."
Further, it notes that short selling specifically on the NYSE climbed to 4.6% of total volume last month. This is the highest level of bearishness since 1931.
At minimum, the big short interest will provide a nice downside floor of support. At best, it could be explosive upside fuel on sustained positive news. Take a look at the action in Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) last week and that was just one day's worth of good news. " -
Vocus (VOCS) tõestas, et nõudlus on-demand tarkvara järgi on jätkuvalt kõrge, analüütikute oodatud $0.12 suurust aktsiapõhist kasumit löödi $0.09 võrra. Tulud tõusid 35.6% yoy, ulatudes $19.1 miljonini (konsensuse ootus $18.7 miljonit). Mõned nopped ka konverentsikõnelt:
Our Q2 performance has underscored continued strong demand for on-demand PR management solutions, Vocus's strong competitive position and the leverage in our SaaS business model. Based on the success of Q2 and with the first half of 2008 now behind us, we are again raising guidance for the year to reflect the strong market demand for our products, our continued sales momentum and the overall confidence we have in our business.
Vocus is already one of the most profitable SaaS companies in the market today, and we expect to continue to grow our operating margins each year, every year, although the rate of expansion will not be as dramatic going forward as our business continues to scale and grow.
Viimane Bold'i pandud tekts on see, mida näiteks Salesforce'i (CRM) puhul kiputakse ära unustama.
