Börsipäev 4. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kuna esmaspäeval oli USA aktsiaturg kinni, siis nagu ikka lükkus kolmapäevane EIA nafta ja mootorkütuste varude raport päeva võrra edasi ja numbrid avalikustatakse siis täna kell 11.00 USA idaranniku aja järgi ehk siis kell 18.00 Eestis. Maagaasivarude raport tuleb ka täna, kuid pisut varem - kell 17.35.
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Inglise Keskpank otsustas täna hommikul oma intressimäärad jätta 5.0% tasemele. Üllatus see ei ole. Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 algab otseülekanne ECB intressimäära otsuse järgsest presssikonverentsist ja kuulata saab seda siit.
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Lisaks tuleb täna tund aega enne turu avanemist veel ka töötu abiraha taotlejate number. Eelmine nädal oli see 425K, seekord oodatakse, siis 420K'list näitu.
Graafiku peal näeb esmaste töötu abirahade taotlejate joon muidugi eriti tore välja. Kiire eksponentsiaalne tõus üles. Kuid nagu ka ajaloost näha, siis väga eksponentsiaalsed tõusud saavad tihtipeale väga kiire lõpu endale. Usun, et näeme ka initial claimsides mingi hetk enne presidendivalimisi kiiret tagasitõmmet, kuid tõenäoliselt ei juhtu see enne septembris tehtavaid sügiskoondamisi.
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers: Mounting chatter about a possible sale is muddying the investment bank's closely watched sale of its asset-management unit - NY Post
NY Post reports mounting chatter about a possible sale of Lehman Brothers to foreign investors is muddying the beleaguered investment bank's closely watched sale of its asset-management unit, which is anchored by Neuberger Berman, sources tell The Post. According to people familiar with the matter, Lehman has asked private-equity investors involved in the asset-management auction to submit the next, and perhaps final, round of bids for all or part of the business by Sept. 12. However, the bidding process has been dogged by talk of Lehman possibly nailing a fat capital infusion from the Korean Development Bank or being acquired outright by parties that include the UK's HSBC (HBC). Some bidders believe that if Lehman either gets bought out or scores enough capital to emerge from its troubles, it might nix the sale. As it stands now, Lehman CEO Dick Fuld is in the midst of an unprecedented juggling act that centers on shedding risky real-estate assets from its balance sheet while at the same time raising cash. "We tend to think of these as mutually exclusive paths and we don't believe that [Lehman's] going down both paths," said one source.
Lehmani kohta viimasel ajal palju kuulujutte millest tingitud suur volatiilsus, kuid tõenäolisem oleks siiski ettevõtte ülevõtt. Aktsia kaupleb eelturul $16.62 tasemel, -1.89% languses.
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Euroopa Keskpank jätab oma intressimäärad muutmata - määr siis jätkuvalt 4.25%. Igati ootustekohane. Pressikonverentsilt üritatakse kindlasti saada vihjeid kas ja millal on ECB valmis määrasid näiteks langetama.
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Initial Claims 444K vs 420K consensus, prior revised to 429K from 425K
Q2 Unit Labor Costs -0.5% vs 0.0% consensus, prior +1.3%
Q2 Nonfarm Productivity +4.3% vs +3.5% consensus, prior +2.2% -
tunduks, et natukesega võiks proovida JOYGi longi siit.
JOYG Joy Global: Hearing JOYG upgraded to accumulate at Buckingham -
Eneki poolt eile juba tähelepanu JOYG-le juhitud ning üsna tõenäoliselt pakub head treidi pikana, kuid hoiaks stopi siiski suhteliselt lähedal.
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mhm, nõus Alari.
seepärast mõtlesingi, et kobisen ka vahele kuna JOYG oli eile teemaks. -
DRYS suutis päeva lõpuks kosuda $65.04 peale, ootaks täna veel mõningast kosumist aga nagu jube enne öeldud idee rohkem nii paari nädalane ja stopid samuti suht lähedal hoida. Kosumist ootaks ~$73-75 vahemikku.
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Trichet on täna andmas väga range ajahorisondi, millal suudetakse inflatsioon kontrolli alla saada (to deliver price stability) ja selleks on 2010. aasta. Konkreetsus on loomulikult hea ja suurendab läbipaistvust.
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Kas 2010-ga oleks midagi teha?
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Viimasel ajal on kahtlemata hakatud, et kas ECB peab ikka oma mandaadist kinni inflatsiooni ohjeldada või ka Föderaalreservistub ära ja tegude asemel vaid lobiseb. Selline konkreetne tärmin suurendab kindlust price stability taassaavutamises. Ja ega see 2010 nii kaugel ka nüüd ei ole.
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Goldman Sachs downgrades täna terasesektorit aktraktiivselt tasemelt neutraalsele, viidates mitme riski esilekerkimisele. Mainitakse tõusvat dollarit, "Hiina hirmu", nõrgenevaid makroandmeid ja nõrkust terasehindades. Ühtlasi eemaldati US Steel (X) oma Conviction Buy List'ist. Natuke ehk survestab aktsiat, aga X on samadel põhjustel juba tükk aega langenud, seega väga suurt reaktsiooni ei ootaks.
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Mul on Nucor (NUE) täna radaril põrkekandidaadina. Aktsia on viimase 3-4 päevaga 25 punkti kukkunud. Siit tuleks osta, 48 juurest eelturul.
NUE Nucor: Citigroup sees upside to Q3 and Q4 EPS, believes a positive preannouncement is likely
Citigroup sees upside to NUE's Q3 and Q4 EPS ests, and believes a positive preannouncement is likely. They note steel equities have been punished amid the China slowdown and Crude-induced exodus from commodities. Yet, they believe underlying Steel markets are far more solid. The firm notes that spot sheet prices may have topped out, but company realizations should climb into 2009, while Beam/Bar/Plate remain at or near records. They say this dynamic also helps STLD, GNA, and CMC. The firm sees NUE as a deep value play and would recommend accumulating. -
Trichet vs ECB staff ... kellele jääb õigus?
New ECB staff projections put the Harmonised Index of Consumer Inflation for 2009 in a 2.3-2.9 percent range, increasing the midpoint to 2.6 percent. For this year, it gave a 3.4-3.6 percent range, giving a 3.5 percent midpoint.
"Whilst Trichet is conceding that there are downside risks to growth, his downplaying of the current slowdown and optimism that global growth will be resilient suggest that the Bank is still hopeful that activity will remain comparatively firm in the medium term, despite the downward revision in the ECB staff's GDP forecasts," said Stuart Bennett at Calyon bank. -
STLD oleks ka potentsiaalne ostukandidaat, sest lisaks Citi positiivsele kommentaarile tõstis ka Goldman soovituse "osta" tasemele. Ja seda sektori downgrade'i vastu.
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Saksamaa DAX -1.35%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.00%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.06%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.48%
Venemaa MICEX -2.52%
Poola WIG +0.37%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.04%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.95%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.03%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.46%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.83%
Tai Set 50 +0.91%
India Sensex -1.00%
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Without Leaders, the Market Will Go Nowhere
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2008 8:39 AM EDT
Faced with crisis, the man of character falls back on himself. He imposes his own stamp of action, takes responsibility for it, makes it his own.
-- Charles de Gaulle
The market simply lacks strong character. There are few positive themes and the technical condition of the major indices is problematic at best.
We have had some strength in financials and retailers as oil and commodities have completely collapsed, but the bounce in those groups is nowhere near the magnitude of the breakdown in energy prices. Looking at the S&P 500, you wouldn't think that crude oil is down well over 20%.
As I have been noting, this market is badly in need of leadership. The very sharp selling in technology stocks -- and especially semiconductors -- over the last couple of days causes some real concern about what group is going to lead this market back up.
The bounce in retailers seems to be some sort of reflexive action or short squeeze, and it is hard to trust that it will last, especially as same-store sales reports start to roll in today and show very mixed results. Wal-Mart (WMT) is strong but that retailer is obviously benefiting from struggling consumers downgrading their shopping.
After the pounding we've seen in energy and commodities lately, a lot of folks are sniffing around for a playable bounce there. If that happens, it's likely that our very thin leadership is going to get even thinner. But in this environment, it's the oversold bounces that have tended to be the best bets for traders.
The bottom line: This market is lacking positive character. The bullish case is based on hope and is not at all supported by the technical action. Until some good leadership emerges and market players show some inclination for sustained buying, we need to keep trades very short term and focus on protecting capital.
The market is oversold enough to give us some sort of bounce here soon, but things are very muddled and it is going to be difficult to trust the upside for long.
We are opening a bit weak as the ADP employment report is a bit soft and retail sales fail to inspire. Europe and Asia were mostly negative overnight, and we have a little bounce in oil and gold.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: CBAK +18.5%, HAYZ +11.1% (light volume),) NAV +6.4%, ZUMZ +6.3%, AEO +1.6% (light volume), GPS +1.4%, MR +1.3% (light volume), SAI +1.2% (also upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia)... Select metals/mining names rebounding: RTP +4.0%, BBL +3.5%, BHP +2.6%, AAUK +2.2%, AUY +1.8%, GLD +1.3%... Other news: RDN +6.9% (continued strength following yesterday's 25%+move higher), UL +6.2% (names Nestle's Polman as CEO - Reuters), SOLR +3.6% (LDK signs polysilicon reactor agreement with GT Solar for an estimated value of $32 mln), BP +3.4% (TNK-BP Partners settle conflict - WSJ), BBT +2.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: STLD +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), NVLS +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/same store sales: CIEN -19.0%, TEX -10.1%, HOV -9.0%, DLX -4.9% (also announces expansion of cost reduction program), ANF -4.5%, HRB -3.0%... Select financial names showing modest weakness: RBS -3.7%, BCS -3.1%, UBS -3.0%, MER -1.9% (may fail to sell bad loans to Korea Asset - Bloomberg.com), LEH -1.7% (MUFG says no truth to Lehman acquisition report - DJ), DB -1.6%, CS -1.6%, HBC -1.5%, GS -1.0%, BAC -1.0%... Other news: HIBB -5.8% (announces departure of Nissan Joseph, Chief Operating Officer), SHPGY -4.2% (Citigroup selling 8 mln shares at 938P each - Bloomberg), TPP -4.0% (discloses that it is contemplating possible sale of certain non-core assets; also files for debt securities shelf offering), MTW -3.6% and CAT -2.6% (down in sympathy with TEX), ABK -1.8% (says as of Aug 6, AMBAC was in violation of certain net asset covenants contained in the credit agreement - Reuters), SI -1.8% (still checking), MDT -1.7% (Medtronic product linked to surgery problems - WSJ), HCN -1.3% (announces proposed offering of 6 mln shares of common stock), NOK -1.1% (still checking), LAZ -1.0% (prices common stock offering at $37.00)... Analyst comments: MRVL -2.8% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), LM -2.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), SPNC -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), KLAC -1.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley). -
Ehitajad üsna nõrgad täna, sest Hovaniani (HOV) tulemused valmistasid pettumuse. On üsna tõenäoline, et kuni vähemalt järgmise housing-datani (või reedese tööjõutururaportini, kui sealt üllatusi tuleb) jääb kogu sektor, sh XHB, surve alla.
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Madis, TOL tulemused ka väljas
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Jah, kuid HOVi omad kesisemad ning tõmbavad sektorit alla. Sest lootust on juba üles kruvitud.
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Muide, TOLi pressikast selline lõik, mis toetab nägemust kinnisvaraturu aeglase paranemise kohta:
"We believe that most big public builders have sold off most of their spec inventory, which eventually should help stabilize home prices. However, we currently have to contend with foreclosures as the new low-priced competition."
Muidugi võivad siit poindi ka karud leida.
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August ISM Services 50.6 vs 49.5 consensus, prior 49.5
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TOLi tänastest tulemustest võiks välja tuua ka veel selle, et viimasel kvartalil teatati vaid 195st lepingu katkestamisest. See on madalaim tase viimase kahe aasta jooksul ja vaieldamatult positiivne.
Väljavõte pressiteatest: "In FY 2008's third quarter, the Company had 195 cancellations, the lowest quarterly total in over two years."
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See lepingute katkestamise madal traend on tõenäoliselt sarnane kõigil ehitajatel, ka HOV viitas sellele. Ja ilmselt on see aktiivsuse vähenedes ka loogiline.
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Kui enamus jaemüüjatest on oma augusti müügiunubrid ära teatanud, siis taas suutsid prognoose ületada discount-stores'id. Morgan Stanley vahendusel ka väike tabel:
Kokku tõusid augusti müüginumbrid aastasel baasil 1.8%, mis on 0.7% võrra enam analüütikute oodatust.
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Kellogg says stands by 2008 EPS forecast of $2.95-$3.00 - Reuters
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Dollar jätkab oma tugevnemist. €1=$1.4399
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Early Sector Strength:
Base Metals- DBB +1.5%, Cons Stpl- XLP +0.70%, Gold- GLD +0.30%, Silver- SLV +0.20%Early Sector Weakness:
Homebuilders- XHB -2.6%, Wind Energy- FAN -2.4%, Steel- SLX -2.3%, Ag/Chem- MOO -2.3%, Metals/Mining- XME -2.2%, Regional Banks- KRE -2.0%, Nat Gas- UNG -1.6%, Materials- XLB -1.6%, Industrials- XLI -1.5% -
DRYS-ist välja stopitud, ebaõnnestunud treid.
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Pro alla sai täna üks uus idee üles pandud - sedapuhku lühikeseks müümiseks. Sümboliks LAMR.
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Väga kole päev, väga laiapõhjaline müük. Toornafta samuti korralikus -1.5% languses, kas suudetakse päeva lõpuks kosuda?
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Tehnoloogia vedas hetkeks turgu ülespoole, kuid nüüd jälle tehakse aina uusi ja uusi põhju. Hakkab juba paanilisemaks müümiseks kiskuma.
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Fed's Fisher says sees "anemic" U.S. growth over next couple of quarters, according to USA today - Reuters
Says need to be careful not to get too excited about commodity price declines, may not last. Says hearing from businesses that they are not yet seeing price relief. Says jury is out on whether slower growth will translate into lower prices, hasn't so far. -
Fed says pretty clear that trend cpi inflation has accelerated over recent months
Says very likely U.S. economy will suffer anemic growth for current, next couple of quarters. Says recent data shows q3 got off to weak start but july factory orders rise was nice surprise. -
Fed's Yellen expects jobless rate to rise in 2nd half of 2008
Fed's Yellen says more house price declines may come before bottom; sees tentative signs of stabilizing in new home sales
Fed's Yellen sees core, headline inflation falling to "a bit over 2%" in 2009
Fed's Yellen says credit crunch is severe, may be deepening
Fed's Yellen says strong Q2 growth likely to be "ephemeral"; financial system poses risks
Fed's yellen says U.S. economy to be "decidedly subpar" in 2nd half of 2008 -
Pakuks välja, et LEH väga hea põrkekandidaat, kuid positsioon max 2 päeva.
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sama hea kui drys? ;)
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DRYS puhul kahjuks stopiti välja jah. Täna saanud kõik tugevalt pihta ja LEH pakkus juba 2 % põrget.
DRYS-il hetkel $60 tasemest läbi vajumine oleks juba väga nutune, seni veel tase peab.
LEH-i puhul samuti $15 tase üsna oluline, kui sealt läbi vajutakse siis võib edasi kukkuda. -
Nohh.., praegusel hetkel põrkab kõik. Osta mida tahad. Kui just langusele uuesti ei keera;)
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Turg veidi ülespoole liikunud ning koos turuga on AIG päeva põhjadest kerged 0.5 punkti põrganud, kas suudetakse kõrgemale kosuda? LEH 0.4 punkti põrganud, DRYS samuti kosunud $60 lähedusest 0.7 punkti, kas suudetakse tasemeid hoida või minnakse uutesse põhjadesse? Käibed täna turul üsna suured.
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers spinoff is one of several options, people familiar say - Bloomberg
Co considers spinoff to dispose of commercial mortgages. Co may shift $32 bln in mortgages to spun-off company and would provide $8 bln in equity to spun-off company.
LEH kosub hooga, AIG samuti korralikult ülespoole liikunud. Mõlemad on viimastel päevadel üsna tugevalt käitunud, kas midagi on teoksil? -
Ilus päev.
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väga
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LEH $15 tase jäi püsima ja DRYS suutis kosuda päeva põhjadest $61.52 peale, kuid müük läks turgudel viimastel minutitel ikka väga paaniliseks.
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Turul liikumas kuulujutud Atticus hedge fondi kohta, kus väidetavalt on fond likvideerimas positsioone, Atticus ise eitab kuulujutte: Hedge fund Atticus denies rumors it is liquidating
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Well... kui turg on -3%, siis keegi ikkagi likvideerib. Eile oli ka turul käive päris korralik. Ja suhteliselt loogiline, et keegi kohe kätt taeva poole ei aja ning täiest kõrist kriiskama kipub: "Jah, meie likvideerime..."
