Börsipäev 11. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Teen natukene pattu ning panen üles Citi värske arvamuse Frontier turgude kohta, milles on käsitletud ka Eestit.
Bumpy landing. Estonia has become the first frontier market economy to seeits economy contract in 2008 (falling by 1.4% YoY in the second quarter) ascredit tightened and consumption fell sharply.
Dependence on the Scandi banks. The extent of Estonia’s recession may depend on whether the Scandinavian banks, which own big stakes inEstonia’s banking system, will continue to provide funding.
Recovery in 2009? An improvement in the current account and slowing wage growth indicates that the economy should start to recover next year.
Lühidalt: Six of the frontier markets we examine in this report are in Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine), six are in the Middle East/Africa (Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Mauritius, Nigeria and Tunisia) and three are in Asia (Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam).
Pikem analüüs ise siin. -
Paneb imestama kuidas Eesti ikka sellise supi sisse sattus. Mainitud riike on ikka väga raske ühe mõõduga mõõta. Tore et kolme Eesti ettevõtte pärast, mis indeksisse võetud, on korralikult üle käidud kogu Eesti turg ja makronäitajad.
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Eww...Lebanon? Nigeria? Vietnam? Täiesti uskumatu, kui madalale me oleme langenud mõne % hapuks läinud laenude pärast. :)
Lohutagem endid sellega, et siit hullemaks vist enam minna ei saa... -
Jaheneva globaalse majanduskeskkonna taustal leiab veel riike, kus intresse agressiivselt ülespoole liigutatakse. Näiteks täna tõstis Brasiilia intressimäära 13.0% pealt 13.75%ni.
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Optimist ütleb et enam hullekaks minnaa ei saa aga pessimist ütleb, et te pole veel näinudki kui hull asi on!
Too ära tabava lõike Raaasukese jutust:
Kui teistel riikidel on võimalik kõrvale panna kogemus, kuidas mullid maailma eri paigus on lõhkenud. Mis meil on vastu panna? Ainult enda arvamus ja seda olukorras, kus viimase pooleteise aasta jooksul oleme demonstreerinud, kuidas meie enda ennustused ligilähedaseltki paika ei pea. -
the end of LEH?
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abesiki - kas viimase postituse taga on ka mõni uudis?
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abesiki-Kas surnud LEHma põrge ikka tuleb?
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surnud Bear Sterns põrge oleks atraktiivsem, tookord 2 USD pealt 10 USD peale kui ma ei eksi
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LEH 4,75
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ja juba ka 4,35
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tänavatel on veri jälle voolamas :)
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ja Leh juba 4,0
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"ja tundub, et 4'ja peal on saavutatud tugev vastupanutahe"
;-) -
Long LEH 3.99. Ma ei usu, et shordid enam eriti aktsiat pressida viitsivad.
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Enek ja sealt. tuleb 4,3,2,1,0.Aga eks mingi lootuse põrge ikka sünnib.Küsimus kas 4 pealt või 1$ pealt...
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Väga punane päev nii Aasias kui ka Euroopas..
Saksamaa DAX -1.50%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.69%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.60%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.35%
Venemaa MICEX -1.47%
Poola WIG -0.85%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.98%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.06%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.34%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.83%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.84%
Tai Set 50 -1.63%
India Sensex -2.31%
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Give This Bear Market a Hug
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/11/2008 8:50 AM EDT
If I could define enlightenment briefly, I would say it is ''the quiet acceptance of what is.''
--Wayne Dyer
Most of the pain of a bear market is caused by the refusal to accept the fact that we are in one. If investors would simply embrace the fact that we are in a downtrending market and may not hit bottom for a while, they will relieve themselves of much pain and suffering.
Unfortunately, the nature of the market is to constantly battle against the reality that the market is acting poorly. Instead of raising cash and sitting on the sidelines, investors are encouraged to constantly look for turning points and to try to find stocks that might act OK while the rest of the market flounders.
Even when investors do fully embrace the fact of a bear market, they can still be painful because for most, it is more difficult to make money on the short side. Nonetheless, if you accept the fact that you are not going to be finding a lot of good trades, life becomes much easier.
One of the great benefits of embracing the idea of a bear market is that it does give you better perspective. Instead of hoping that maybe you'll be bailed out of bad positions, you start evaluating the action in a more realistic way. You don't get excited and hopeful over each countertrend bounce and don't rush to buy when the serial bottom callers try to convince you that we are yet again at another turning point.
Embracing your inner bear doesn't mean you have to be a pessimist anticipating a complete economic meltdown. It simply means that you acknowledge the fact that for now, the market is not acting well, and that it is premature to risk your capital.
The action is looking quite grim as we kick off the day. Lehman (LEH) continues to be a major issue for the financial sector, as well as worries grow over a worldwide economic slowdown. We are going to open very weak if indications hold.
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Ülespoole avanesid:
With equity futures trading significantly lower this morning (S&P futures -18, Dow futures -130), very few stocks are trading higher in premarket... In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CSX + 4.8%, GCOM + 3.7%.
Allapoole avanesid:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNXA -19.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard and downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), LULU -11.1%, ACTL -5.0%... Select mortgage/financial stocks trading lower: LEH -40.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs- DJ and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MER -15.0%, WM -13.4%, IRE -11.4%, RDN -11.1%, SNV -10.4%, SCA -8.8%, AIB -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Dresdner Kleinwort), MTG -8.0%, ABK -7.6%, PMI -7.5%, MS -7.5%, AIG -7.4%, MBI -6.3%, RBS -6.2%, BAC -6.1% (ests cut at Credit Suisse and RBC lowering ests following recent disclosures), AXA -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), UBS -5.9%, BCS -5.9%, LYG -5.9%, WB -5.8%, ING -5.4%, GS -5.0%, DB -4.8%, C -4.3%, JPM -3.3%, WFC -3.0%, NMR -2.3% (leads Asian financials down after Lehman loss - Bloomberg.com)... Select metals/mining stocks trading lower with strength in dollar and lower spot prices: GOLD -4.0%, GFI -3.7%, BHP -2.7%, MT -2.2%, RTP -1.4%, HMY -1.3%, GLD -1.3%... Select solar names showing weakness: FSLR -7.0%, YGE -5.6%, LDK -5.2%, JASO -5.1%, TSL -4.9%, CSIQ -4.4%, ESLR -4.2%... Other news: CHL -5.1% (trading ex-dividend)... Analyst comments: PDLI -5.3% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AEG -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NVDA -4.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), AZN -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), RAI -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley). -
(AIG) American Intl exposure to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac preferred shares between $550 mln-$600 mln, according to source - Reuters
Aktsia $14.58 tasemel, -16.19% languses. -
Ma ei saa aru, kus inimesed arvavad, et see AIG capital raise tuleb? 10 pealt?
Long AIG siit. -
First Hour Sector Strength:
Gas- UGA +2.2%, Nat Gas- UNG +1.7%, Transports- IYT +1.3%, Healthcare Providers- IHF +0.80%, Biotech- BBH +0.70%, Livestock Commodities- COW +0.20%
First Hour Sector Weakness:
Gold Miners- GDX -5.0%, Financial Srvc- IAI -4.9%, IYG -3.0%, Metals/Mining- XME -3.5%, Steel- SLX -3.6%, Ag/Chem- MOO -3.2%, Finance- XLF -3.0%, IYF -2.9%, Insurance Broekrs- KIE -2.8%, Coal- KOL -2.9% -
(LEH) Lehman Brothers: U.S. SEC declines comment on Lehman - Reuters
SEC'S Cox actively monitoring market developments, according to spokesman. -
Nafta pudeneb ja kui nüüd alla $100 peaks liigutama, siis võiks see turgudele ka optimismi pisut juurde puhuda neil padupessimistlikel aegadel. Hetkel must kula oktoobrikuu futuurleping $100.6 ja täna langust -1.9%.
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers jumps $0.20 in past few minutes; pop attributed to market chatter suggesting the possibility of a takeover by GS
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BSC on läinud, LEH vaagub hinge. FNM ja FRE - ettevõtted, millesse investeerimist peeti traditsiooniliselt väga konservatiivseks - on nüüdseks aktsiaturgudelt põhimõtteliselt kadunud. Kümneid suuri panku on USAs sel aastal põhja läinud - viimane neist Nevadas, mida juhtis presidendikandidaadi McCaini poeg... Ajalooõpikutes hakatakse 2007. ja 2008. aastast rääkima kui kaasaja suurest finants- ja krediidikriisist (The Great Financial Crisis of Modern Times).
Kuigi 'pirukas' on väiksemaks läinud, siis 'piruka taotlejate' ring on väga tugevalt kokku kuivanud. Ja kõik ettevõtted ka finantssektorist põhja minna ei saa. Lihtsalt ei saa! Tugevad on need, kes tänaseid olukordi suudavad enda kasuks pöörata. Ja kes on tugevad? Minu jaoks on väga tugevaks signaaliks näiteks see, et Treasury, jah Treasury, palkas Morgan Stanley(MS) ennast nõustama FNM ja FRE osas. Selliseid infokilde tasub pähele panna. -
Kass arvab jätkuvalt, et eksisteerib üpriski tõenäoline stsenaarium, et GS ostab LEHi ära...
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on see nyyd gs-i jaoks hea uudis või halb...
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers: Goldman Sachs says "We continue to trade with Lehman across all our businesses" - Reuters
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See GS for LEH on muidugi puhas spekulatsioon. Aga kui see peaks tõeks saama, siis ma usun, et GS on piisavalt informeeritud, et ülevõttu liiga rumala hinnaga mitte teha. Sel päeval kui JPM BSC ära võttis oli JPM vist ainuke finantssektori ettevõte +10%iga ajal, mil teiste sümbolite taga oli number -10%...
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers: CNBC commentator says Dick Fuld is clearly shopping LEH, not just the investment management unit
(WM) Washington Mutual's regulator says monitoring bank's condition - Reuters -
(LEH) Lehman Brothers said to be in talks with potentail buyers of the firm - Bloomberg
Turg teeb korraliku jõnksu ülespoole. -
(LEH) Lehman Brothers: GOLDMAN SACHS says NOT BUYING LEHMAN BROTHERS, according to SOURCES - Reuters
CONCERNED LEHMAN TAKEOVER WOULD BE TOO DISRUPTIVE
Ja turg uuesti alla. -
Midday Sector Strength:
Gas- UGA +3.9%, Transports- IYT +1.8%, Coal- KOL +1.7%, Homebuilders- XHB +1.0%, Solar Power- KWT +1.3%, Materials- XLB +1.0%, IYM +0.90%, Metals/Mining- XME +0.50%Midday Sector Weakness:
Wind Energy- FAN -2.7%, Financial Srvc- IAI -2.3%, IYG -1.5%, Regional Banks- KRE -2.3%, Silver- SLV -1.4%, Gold- GLD -1.3%, Finance- IYF -1.5%, XLF -1.4%, Telecom- IYZ -1.3%, Insurance Broekrs- KIE -1.3% -
Enek LEH + 15%
Well done, respect -
Kuidas LEH + 15% Kas olen pime või?
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Usutavasti mõeldi eneki kasumit, kuigi arvatavasti väljus ta juba esimese veerandtunni jooksul.
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MTL tõuseb päri skenasti, aga ikka vist ajutine põrge ? 21.51 Up 0.72 (3.46%) Vene foon tõusuks ikka vist suht kahtlane?
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(LEH) Lehman Brothers: Bank Of America in talks to buy Lehman Brothers, according to source -WSJ
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Kas neile Countrywide'ist veel piisavalt pole või?
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AIG-lt ikka väga võimas liikumine $13.82 päeva põhi ->$17.80. Põhjadest kosutud $3.98
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LEH short @ $4.20. Ma ei näe põhjust, miks keegi peaks maksma üle $1 dollari (mitte per share, aga kokku) selle eest, et LEH enda kaela võtta.
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Kui vaadata viimasel ajal teistest sama sektori ettevõtetest tunduvalt paremini esinenud BAC-i, siis võib LEH-i ülevõtt olla üsnagi tõenäoline. Kas BAC ei hammusta sellega liiga suurt suutäit? CFC ülevõttu ei peeta just parimaks lahenduseks, mida saab küll täielikult hinnata mõne aasta möödudes.
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PS Kui BAC ostja on, siis nüüdseks nad on kindlasti juba õppinud. Countrywide'le tegid nad undertake, aga ikkagi üsnagi turuhinna lähedalt. Seejärel nägid, kuidas BSC sisuliselt tasuta kätte saadi.. Yeah right nad kaks korda üle maksavad, eriti praeguses situatsioonis.
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Kas sinus räägib lühike positsioon? Kuid tõetera jutul sees.
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Pikem tekst spekulatiivsetest kandidaatidest siin:
(LEH) Lehman Brothers: Additional detail on earlier headline of BAC in talks to buy LEH
WSJ reports the co is actively shopping itself to potential suitors, including Bank of America (BAC), people familiar with the matter said. The need for a sale intensified as Lehman's shares dropped 45% in Thursday trading, creating new doubts about its ability to trade with other Wall Street cos while keeping its best talent. But potential buyers remain wary about plugging holes in Lehman's balance sheet, and are increasingly looking to the U.S. government to help backstop future losses, according to people familiar with the talks. A number of these buyers would "come out of the woodwork," if the U.S. were to step in, said one person monitoring the process. It remains unclear whether the U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve would take such steps, as was done when the government assisted J.P. Morgan Chase in its Bear Stearns takeover in March. Bank of America, which is holding preliminary discussions about a transaction, appeared to be Lehman's best hope on Thursday afternoon. BofA may only do a Lehman deal if it is encouraged by the federal government, since it has its hands full digesting mortgage lender Countrywide Financial. Still, the situation was so fluid Thursday that people involved in the deal talks said it was too soon to say what shape a sale would take or if it would happen at all. Without explicit government support, a range of other suitors have proven uninterested in absorbing Lehman and its $600 billion balance sheet. Goldman Sachs (GS), for example, is not bidding on the company, said a person familiar with the matter. Other much-discussed buyers, including France's BNP Paribas, the UK's HSBC (HBC), Germany's Deutsche Bank (DB), Spain's Banco Santander (BBD), are not expected to participate. One outside potential remains Barclays (BCS), the UK's third largest bank which has been eager to expand its investment-banking franchise around the globe.
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Täitsa õige jutt jim-i poolt aga usun hoopis varianti, et koostöös FED-iga ostab BAC Lehmani 4 - 5 taalaga
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Aga üldiselt, kas overtake või undertake, peaasi, et midagi toimub. Kui diil ära tehakse, siis see on turu jaoks positiivne, vähemalt lühiajaliselt.
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Yes, exclaims Jeff Macke on CNBC’s Closing Bell. By ignoring the large scale fundamental anaylsis and recognizing the chart for oil is... broken
To trade fundamentals Macke thinks you need an information edge; that is, a take that other people don’t have. And he doesn't think that exists in oil.
“What we saw in oil… as well as the commodities and ag names was a bubble that inflated and finally burst. You can’t make a fundamental argument that $140 was any more rational that $100 on crude. Therefore you’ve got to trade the charts.”
Macke might be the Lone Wolf but he’s hardly alone in his outlook. "This is a market that wants not only to test $100 a barrel but ultimately break $100," echoes Tom Knight, trader at Truman Arnold in Texarkana, Texas -
U.S. Government to Arrange Sale of Lehman Brothers
By David Cho and Heather Landy
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, September 11, 2008; 5:16 PM
The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are engineering a sale of Lehman Brothers through a consortium of private firms. The details are not finalized, but sources familiar with the matter say the purchase is expected to be completed and announced this weekend before Asian markets open on Monday morning. -
Private equity ostab LEH? Yeah right. Kuidas nad seda finantseerida mõtleksid? :)
