Börsipäev 24. september
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Futuurid on ca 1.2% varahommikul plussis ja peamiseks põhjuseks eile hilisõhtune uudis, et Goldman Sachs (GS) on saavutanud kokkuleppe Warren Buffettiga lisakapitali kaasamiseks. Buffettile müüakse $5 miljardi eest 10%lise intressiga eelisaktsiaid ning antakse kaasa õigusi osta 5 aasta jooksul $5 miljardi eest lihtaktsiaid hinnaga $115 (allpool tänast turuhinda). Lisaks Buffetti käest saadavale $5 miljardile plaanib Goldman müüa aktsiaid avalikkusele - mida pole tehtud kordagi alates 2000. aastast alates - veel $2.5 miljardi eest, et veelgi kapitali tõsta.
Buffett on hea diili teinud ja seda on täna hommikul ka mitmed analüütikud rõhutanud. Samas, Buffetti nimi Goldman Sachsi taga näitab investeerimismaailmale, et Buffett julgeb GSi osta ja nii on ehk GSil kergem $2.5 miljardi eest aktsiaid avalikkusele müüa... ja see on ka väärt midagi. -
Glitnir:
"VTB has released its 1H08 IFRS results, reporting improved net profit and positive growth in assets and the loan portfolio. The bank beat our and consensus expectations in net profit by 13% and 5%, respectively. In the loan portfolio and assets volume, VTB exceeded our and consensus expectations by approximately 1%."
"The bank is currently traded at a 2008e P/E of 8.8x and P/B of 0.7x, which we believe is very low compared to its peers."
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Goldman Sachs-GS to double size of stock sale to $5B, people say-Bloomberg
Goldman increased the size due to accelerated bookbuilding. Goldman said it would sell at least $2.5B of stock yesterday.
Paistab, et nad ise ka ei usu, et Buffeti mõju kaua kestaks, vaja kähkukähku tegutseda. -
Goldman Sachs said to double size of stock sale to $5 bln - Bloomberg
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jim 1 : Henno 0
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See kuradi putitamine tekitab mingit nmedat paigaltammumist. Natuke stock kukub siis kiunutakse ja putitatakse jälle üles, siis sealt kukub jälle, siis jälle kiunutakse ja putitatakse üles. Kurat kuna nad ükskord aru saavad, et ei ole ega tule niipea põhjuseid et stock peaks ülespoole liikuma räigelt. Ma ei saa aru mis usakad arvavad et ongi normaalne kui stock jookseb ringi mulli tipu hindadega. See oleks a la sama kui eesti valitsus hakkaks kinnisvaraturgu reguleerima, ikka ülespoole ja ülespoole.
Siinkohal tuletaksin meelde vana head reeglit, kui miski smells like SCAM siis probably see ka on. Paulsoni plan smells like SCAM. If you lie, lie SO big that noone believes that you lie. :) -
Venemaal tunniks ajaks kauplemine peatatud.
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Miks?
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Seekord viidatakse tehnilistele probleemidele.
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GS Goldman Sachs: Buffet Interview on CNBC -Update-
Says he would lovbe to have $700 bln because there is the potential to make a lot of money for this deal...
ma ei tee seda, aga pmst ostaks turgu selle commendi peale. -
ühes teises foorumis (TI) välja toodud ülalmaintud intrvjuus olnud Buffeti teine lahe lause (neid oli veel): economy is like a bath tub, 'you can't have cold water in the front and hot water in the back' :)
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Lugege nüüd Buffeti kõnet väga tähelepanelikult.Juba sõnade ja komade paigutus võib viia Eufooriast kaoseni.Ma arvan,et siin on tööd Buffeti "koodi" lahti muukimiseks tervetel meeskondadele.
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Saksamaa DAX +0.05%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.10%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.06%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.31%
Venemaa MICEX +2.70%
Poola WIG +0.44%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.22%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.47%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.69%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.18%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.69%
Tai Set 50 +2.48%
India Sensex +0.90%
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White Knight Buffett Rides to the Rescue
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/24/2008 7:52 AM EDT
Necessity never made a good bargain.
-- Benjamin Franklin
Warren Buffett is stealing a nice little piece of Goldman Sachs (GS) , and the financial sector is celebrating. One of the great things about Buffett is that he knows how to take advantage of a weak opponent. Not only does he get preferred stock yielding a 10% dividend forever, but he gets some nicely priced warrants to go with it.
At this point, the market is celebrating any and all deals in the financial sector, no matter how bad they may be. The dilution that is taking place in some cases is and will be tremendous, and many common shareholders will be essentially wiped out, especially as the terms of the big bailout evolve. However, things are so bad that the market is happy that a bank or broker can sell a piece of itself at any price.
Regardless of how good of deal it may be for Buffett, the move is having a positive psychological impact, and that is good enough for now. The big problem confronting the market right now is a lack of confidence. Despite the talk that this massive bailout deal will reassure markets, it is having just the opposite effect so far. The bailout brings to the forefront how deep and severe the problems really are, and it makes it clear that no one really knows for sure what the best solution might be.
It is very likely that some form of the bailout will be passed in the next week or so, but I'm not sure we can count on a vigorous and long-lasting positive response from the markets. It will help to remove some tremendous uncertainty and replace it with something that isn't quite as bad -- at least in theory.
Given how choppy the trading has been lately, anything that gives us less crazy volatility would be helpful. Yesterday, for example, the indices traded into the green a couple times but then closed deeply into the red. That sort of action just scares away investors who are getting sick and tired of this market.
So we shall see today if the investment by Buffett can have a lasting impact as we are once again are treated to a long day of political yammering over the bailout deal. Today the House has its turn, and that is sure to reinforce the idea that many of these people have no idea what they are doing.
Technically the markets are oversold and ripe for a bounce, so the timing of the Buffett deal is perfect. The question is whether a move will have legs, and we certainly can't anticipate that right now.
Stay lean, stay mean, stay flexible. Take profits when you can and ignore the bottom-callers who are sure to belch out their predictions once again, proclaiming that the worst is over. I have no idea when the worst will be over, but I do know that we will have plenty of time to participate in a better market when it is.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LOW +1.6% (light volume), WOR +1.3%... Select financial related names showing strength: FRE +34.1%, FNM +29.4%, DSL +19.9%, RBS +6.2%, WM +4.7%, MS +4.6%, AIG +4.4%, GS +3.9% (announced that Berkshire Hathaway confirms the co will to invest $5 bln in GS), BK +3.7% (will provide support to clients invested in money market mutual funds; Expects after-tax charge of ~$425 mln), BAC +2.1%, BCS +2.0%... Select solar names trading higher: ESLR +17.9%, AKNS +11.2%, YGE +7.9% (will supply PV modules to "largest university campus solar energy facility in the US"), SOLF +6.0%, TSL +5.2%, STP +5.1%, SPWR +5.0%, FSLR +4.7%, CSIQ +3.6%, SOL +3.5%... Other news: SQNM +16.2% (announces additional, positive results for Down Syndrome test; correctly identified 100% of samples, (i.e. sensitivity or detection rate), without any false-positive outcomes), ENER +9.8% (rebounding after yesterday's 15%+drop), MAS +6.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), WFR +3.6% (sees Q3 revs of $520-540 mln vs $594.01 mln First Call consensus following impact from Hurricane Ike; also upgraded to Outperform at RBC), NOK +2.8% (still checking for anything specific).
Allapoole avanevad:
General news: MRX -27.5% (announces intent to restate financial statements), CNX -7.5% (lowers Q3 coal production guidance), LYG -7.0% (still checking), AAUK -5.3% (still checking for anything specific), JRCC -5.1% (files prospectus for 1.5 mln share common stock offering), OFC -2.0% (announces offering of 2 mln shares), EQY -1.8% (announces launch of offering of 2.2 mln common stock)... Analyst comments: JNPR -3.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), HTZ -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ). -
Kauplemise taasalustamine Venemaal lükati veelgi edasi.
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GSi poolt avalikult pakutud aktsiate hinnaks on $123.
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Trading resumes 13:30 GMT, 16:30 Tallinn
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August Existing Home Sales 4.91 mln vs 4.94 mln, -2.2% m/m
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Pressikas ka selline lõik:
"Historically, housing has led the nation out of economic doldrums – there will not be an economic recovery without a housing recovery." -
First Hour Sector Strength:
Solar Power- TAN +8.2%, KWT +6.2%, Clean Energy- PBW +2.8%, Gold Miners- GDX +2.3%, Homebuidlers- XHB +2.0%, Metals/Mining- XME +1.8%, Crude/WTI oil- USO +2.0%, OIL +1.8%, Commodities- DBC +1.6%, Wind Energy- FAN +1.2%First Hour Sector Weakness:
Insurers- KIE -1.7%, Nat Gas- UNG -1.8%, Materials- XLB -1.4%, Regional Banks- KRE -1.2%, Real Estate- IYR -1.2%, Retail- XRT -1.0% -
(DAI) Daimler: Cerberus may buy Daimler's remaining Chrysler stock, according to report - DJ
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Päris vahva on kuulata ülekannet Bernanke & co esinemisest kongressis. Mitte keegi pole veel väljagi pakkunud varianti, et probleem on selles, et liiga palju on laene välja antud, mitte selles, et enam pole laenukraanid nii lahti.
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Fitch cuts Thailand from BJ++ to BS -
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NYSE-listed companies added to the short sale list as of Wednesday morning, Sept. 24, 2008
Effective Wednesday, September 24, 2008, the NYSE-listed issuers have been added to the list of financial cos that meet the SEC's revised criteria to the Order prohibiting short selling: MHS, ABR, DDR, HRB, IBM, MFA, ASI, LFG, PHH, BAP, LXP, BEE.
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Said nüüd, Suffiks. Kontrolli oma spellimist.
Shordiks GSi täiega, aga mis sa siin shordid kui shorte ei ole ja õlu on leige kah. Käsi kipub puttide suunas... Aga küsimus on, kas oktoober ja 125 strike või november 115. -
NYSE Regulation CEO says expects U.S. SEC to extend emergency short order beyond Oct 2 to 30-day maximum - Reuters
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NYSE Regulation CEO says expects U.S. SEC to extend emergency short order beyond Oct 2 to 30-day maximum - Reuters
Mina annan oma hääle müümise ärakeelamise poolt! -
Nüüd olin mina aeglane :(
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Vaiksest kõikumisest hakatakse juba intensiivsemalt ülespoole liikuma, käibed siiski jälle üsna väiksed. Kas täna suudetakse päev tõusus lõpetada või toimub viimastel minutitel jällegi kiire allamüük?
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Whitney GSi dilutioni kallal ja ega ta eriline optimist ei ole:
GS Goldman Sachs deal 'exorbitantly expensive,' Meredith Whitney says - DJ (132.64 +7.59) -Update-
DJ reports the terms of Goldman Sachs' $5 bln public stock offering at $123 a share "seem exorbitantly expensive [for GS] and provide(s) insight into how truly challenging current market conditions are," Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney says. She estimates dilution of about 16% from the public offering and Buffett's warrants. The capital raising will give GS the needed capital to expand its depository base after its conversion to a bank holding company. The conversion will provide GS with inexpensive deposits and a more stable earnings base, Whitney says, but it will pay for it with more regulation, lower leverage and lower returns. -
Autotööstust finantseeritakse, küll ka see $700 miljardiline plaan allkirjad alla saab:
U.S. House approves funding to back $25 bln in loans to auto industry - Reuters
Auto loan provision expected to win Senate approval. -
intrade's on tekkinud BAILOUT.APPROVE.SEP08. Juba ca 80% ootus, et hiljemalt 30.septembriks saab asi tehtud. Bushi kõne ei jätnud ka praktiliselt mingit muud võimalust.
