Börsipäev 23. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Australia ASX 100 -137.20 -4.02% 3,278.40 10/23 2:31pm
Australia ASX All Ords -167.60 -4.07% 3,952.50 10/23 2:31pm
Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -117.10 -3.04% 3,740.00 10/23 2:31pm
Hong Kong Hang Seng -802.16 -5.62% 13,464.44 10/23 11:36am
Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip -161.40 -5.78% 2,632.33 10/23 11:36am
Japan Nikkei 225 -531.27 -6.12% 8,143.42 10/23 12:45pm -
Täna avaldavad majandustulemused muuhulgas: Altria (MO), Black&Decker (BDK), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Potash (POT), UPS (UPS) ja US Airways (LCC). Peale turgu teevad kasumiaruande teatavaks sellised ettevõtted nagu MEMC (WFR), Microsoft (MSFT) ja HOKU Scientific (HOKU).
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Ei paista sugugi, et USA üle maailma laotatud sõnniku haisemine väheneks :)
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Üle pika aja Soome poolt ka M&A uudiseid. Jaapani Mitsubishi ostab Soome forkliftide tootja Rocla, milles tal juba veerandine osalus. Aktsia eest makstakse 13 EUR cashis. Rocla eilne sulgemishind Helsingi börsil oli 6,5 EUR ning umbes poole suurem kui viimase 3 kuu keskmine hind.
Firma hind siiski suur pole, välja käiakse umbes 40 miljonit eurot. -
ehk siis ostuhind on üle 40% suurem kui viimase 3 kuu keskmine hind
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Mul on tunne, et Venemaal tuleb täna põrge..
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Ilus hommik, ligi protsendiga plussis. Ja kas see tundub ainult nii, või on siin mingi seos asjaoluga et EVLI "The Evil" pole täna midagi müünud.
Oh, tegelikult 650 Merko aktsiat siiski müüs. Ilmselt näen ma siis seoseid seal kus neid pole. Või on neil veel mingid varud kuskil, mida otse bid-ile müüa. Kindlasti on. Ehk saab lõunaks jälle harjumuspärase punase värvi tagasi. -
45 mintsa veel ja siis läheb EVlil müügiks :)(. Talvekardulas ju kõigile salve vaja saada. Poleks müüat poleks kartulit :)
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Kokku 1000 Merkot müüdud? Ja see on kõik, mis sa suudad, Evli? Ja ilusti oma orderiga aski poolel istudes, mitte otse turgu müües?
Ei, see on mingi teine reaalsus... -
Kell pole veel 12, aga jah Tallinki müüs küll otse bid-i. Ja islandi poisid on väljas OEG-ga, igav juba ei hakka.
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Nii, DAX aasta ja eelnevate põhi tehtud? 4375 punni!
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Tundub, et Uralsib on loobunud ratsionaalsest analüüsist, ajades turulanguse Kuradi enda kaela (allolevat lõiku võib tõlgendada ka proffide TA-na):
:)On days like yesterday it certainly seems as if it is the devil that is running amok in the markets. If proof be needed, i.e. apart from the almost irrational behavior of stock prices, the RTS Index closing level of 666 yesterday surely provides it. In 1H05 the RTS Index closed exactly at, or very close to 666 on five separate occasions before breaking free and upwards. The price of Urals traded at an average of $44/bbl in that period. Yesterday Urals slid further and, almost inevitably, traded down 6.66% at $61.23/bbl at the close. The ruble-dollar exchange rate still has a "6" in the big number, as it closed at 26.93 on MICEX. At many of Moscow's exchange booths last night a rate of close to 28 was more typical.
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Potash (POT) reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $3.93 per share, $0.36 better than the First Call consensus of $3.57; revenues rose 136.6% year/year to $3.06 bln vs the $3.03 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $12.00-13.00 vs. $12.55 consensus.
Kuigi turg on omaks võtnud sell-the-news reaktsiooni, ei tahaks kuidagi uskuda, et need tulemused alla müüakse. Potase pakkumine jõuab nõudlusega vaevu sammu pidada ning tootjate varud jäävad ajalooliselt madalale tasemele (Third-quarter sales volumes of 1.9 million tonnes were 14 percent below the same period last year, as potash availability was limited and our quarter-end inventories were reduced to 212,000 tonnes, the lowest in our history).
Hiina kohta öeldakse, et Hiina peab taastama madalale langenud varud ning lisaks on sealsed ametnikud kinnitanud, et globaalsest kriisist hoolimata jätkab riik põllupidamise soodustamist.
Fundamentaalselt on ettevõttega kõik hästi, kuid aktsia langus on sisse arvestanud kukkuva kasumi, madalamad kordajad, vähenevad marginaalid, langeva nõudluse, väiksemad tootmismahud, madalamad hinnad, põllumeeste pankroti ja inimeste näljahäda - põhjused, millest mõned osaliselt realiseeruvad, aga teised mitte. Ometi on turg ilmekalt tõestanud, et aktsiad liiguvad hetkel muudel alustel.
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Bunge'i (BG) tulemused ka üle ootuste, ühtasi kinnitatakse 2008. aasta EPSi prognoose vahemikus $11.60-11.90. Väetisesegmendis (mis annab 34% ettevõtte maksueelsest kasumist) jäädi küll eelmise aasta kasumile alla, kuid see tulenes eelkõige Brasiilia reaali langusest, segmendi tuleviku väljavaate kohta arvati:
Fertilizer margins should remain strong, though volumes will likely be moderated due to the level of forward purchasing which occurred in the first half of the year and current tight farmer credit conditions.
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ei krt, peaks ikka ostma midagi sealt sektorist kas MOS (Cargilli ülevõtupakkum.?), POT või SQM
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Altria (MO) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; reaffirms FY08 EPS guidance
Tulud päris tugevalt üle, kommentaar tuleb Pro alla. -
opex, väetisetootjate odavus ei ole kellelegi üllatuseks ning kuni hedge-fondid (või muud boom and bust tegelased) müümas on, ei ole ka aktsiate tõusu oodata. Aga millal see lõppeb, ei tea...
Torkisin ise ka liiga vara, praegu pigem ootaks. -
Analüütikud muutuvad Salesforce'i (CRM) ümber järjest negatiivsemaks. Jeffries tõstis küll soovituse "hold" tasemele, kuid langetas sihti $28-ni. Tegemist on uue Street low-ga, üleeile langetas UBS sihti $29-ni, kuid enne seda olid kõik hinnasihis $37 üles.
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Madis, olid see Sina, kes ütlesid, et turud on ülemüüdud? Et nüüd peaks ralli tulema...
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Ütlesin kahe nädala eest esmaspäeval, et arvatavasti tehakse põhi tollasel nädalal, seni pole tees lörri läinud. Samas arvamused kohanduvad ning siis hedge-fondidest veel väga ei räägitud. MOSi sisenesin mäletatavasti $50 pealt, see ei tähenda, et kaks korda peaks näppu lõikama, lisaks peaksid minu soovitused reeglina ettevaatlikumad olema, kui enda toimetamine. Ja turud on siiani ülemüüdud.
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Tulemuste tabel jätkab uuenemist. Vaata siit. Väga korralikud numbrid eileõhtusel järelturul CNH'lt määrivad põllumajandussektori optimistidele pisut palsamist haavadele... Eelturul ollakse valmis CNH'd ostma isegi 11% kallimalt võrreldes eilse sulgumishinnaga.
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Eilse juukselõikuse järel võiks väetis tõesti kosuda, MOS kaasaarvatud. Kui just turg ära jälle ei kuku.
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pilk Fordi tulevikku : http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=f ;)
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Saksamaa DAX -3.04%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.05%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.57%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -4.21%
Venemaa MICEX -6.08%
Poola WIG -3.61%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.46%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.55%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.07%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.54%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -7.92%
Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)
India Sensex 30 -3.92%
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You Must Adapt
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/23/2008 7:45 AM EDT
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
-- Charles Darwin
The folks who have suffered the most in this absolutely horrible market are those who have refused to change their traditional approach to investing. They have simple held on during this 40% drop because they have been told by traditional Wall Street that market timing is futile and good stocks always come back.
The arguments for long-term buy-and-hold investing have been beaten into us so well I need not even repeat them. You just know that many investors who are sitting on huge losses are hearing this sort of advice when they talk to their brokers this morning: "Buy good companies," "Buy when others are selling," "If you liked it at 50, you'll love it at 20," "In five years you'll be kicking yourself for not buying down here" and "If you are in for the long haul, this is just noise."
All these platitudes are necessary because the proper action was not taken in a timely manner. The correct approach would never put you in the position of even thinking that maybe you should average down a position in which you already have lost half your capital.
I obviously can go on and on about the gross failure of Wall Street to protect investors in a poor market, but ultimately you're in control of your financial life. You have to decide whether you are going to evolve and find a style that works better or whether you're just going to stick with conventional Wall Street wisdom, which has no solution other than "buy good stocks and just hold on."
If you are buried in some bad stocks the very first thing you should do is a little selling. Forget whether it may be at a low or not. It isn't relevant whether it's an outstanding bargain or not. You need to do some selling even when stocks have already been crushed so you can break the gridlock in your thinking. The only way to change your approach is to do something.
Being frozen like a scared dear in headlights is the worst thing you can do but it is the pattern of the vast majority of investors. They just look at the carnage in their investment accounts, figure it's too late and then do nothing. Sure, we may get a bounce pretty soon that will bail them out to some degree, but what will serve them better over the long run is to take control of the situation and not be passive. Do something, anything, and you'll be surprised by how empowered you will feel. The stocks that took your account down are unlikely to be the best ones to bring it back up, so start thinking in new ways and you will come back much stronger.
Once again, it is looking awfully dreary out there, although futures aren't down much. The news flow continues to be very poor and the big problem is that the market seems to have no idea how to price in all the negatives that are floating around.
Technically we are holding right at recent lows, but support is precarious, and it may actually be healthier if we break support yet again and wash the market out even more. Market players don't seem capable of embracing strength at this point, so maybe we'd get a better setup if we just slip lower again. We still are badly in need of less volatility before a good market low can form, and it doesn't much matter at what levels that occurs as long as the process starts pretty soon.
We are awfully oversold now, and traders will be trying to get some sort of bounce going again, but as far as longer-term positions go, you can forget about it.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RHD +61.8%, SPAR +38.1% (light volume), SSCC +36.8%, FFIV +12.2%, CTXS +10.2%, LVLT +9.8%, WIRE +8.2%, NE +7.9%, SYT +6.6%, DOW +5.6%, ELN +5.5%, JBLU +5.0%, AMGN +4.3%, BMY +3.3%, GSIC +3.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), POT +2.8%, DO +2.8%, AXYS +2.7%, PSSI +2.4%, NOV +2.1%, UPS +1.9%... M&A news: JUPM +83.3% (to be acquired by Getty Images for $96 mln in cash).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AAI -20.3%, CNB -19.1%, ANAD -18.7%, ABB -14.9%, AMZN -13.7%, SNE -12.1%, ADCT -11.6% (also downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), ACL -11.4%, TEX -10.3%, LRCX -6.3% (also downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), STX -6.3%, DAI -4.9%, PLD -4.7%, BDK -4.5%, NTRI -4.4%, BIDU -3.2%, CS -2.8%, BG -2.1%... Select financials trading lower: BCS -8.7%, AXA -7.9%, ING -7.9% (announces John Hele, Chief Financial Officer, will leave ING as of March 31 2009), STD -3.2%, BAC -2.5%, HBC -2.3%, GS -2.2%, JPM -1.4%, WFC -1.4%... Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude trading lower: REP -4.9%, PBR -4.1%, TOT -3.0%, BP -2.7%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: BHP -8.5% (BHP said to face EU objections to RTP offer - Bloomberg.com), BBL -8.4%, MT -7.6% (Arcelor Mittal reviews $35 bln plan for growth - FT), GOLD -7.1%, RIO -6.4%, AEM -6.2%, ABX -4.8%, NEM -4.0%, GLD -3.2%, AUY -2.0%, AA -2.0%... Other news: CDNS -7.4% (announces accounting review and postpones release of Q3 financial results and webcast; reaffirms the expected third quarter 2008 results; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), EBAY -1.5% (trading down in sympathy with AMZN)... Analyst comments: PCU -7.8% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), FRO -6.2% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AKS -4.2% (initiated with Sell at BofA), FCX -4.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), BHI -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at Stern Agee). -
Proovin näpuotsaga SKF short @ $159.00, turg võiks siit natukene tuge saada. Uue tipu tegemisel pos. kinni.
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Kõrvetati stopiga $160.62 välja:(
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Nii vaikseks kõik on jäänud, mu ümber ja mu sees... :o)
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küll viimasel pooltunnil jälle laamendatakse
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Washington Mutual final Senior Debt Recovery rate 57 cents/dollar - DJ
Ja turg põhjadesse, kuid nüüd on suudetud juba kergelt kosuda. -
VIX indeks on päevasiseselt käinud 96,4 peal.
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kerge elevus tekkimas
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puhk ... kui juba luuleliseks läks, siis ... ma ei tea kas Freddie investeerimisega tegeles, aga need read sobivad ka väga hästi tänasesse päeva
Is this the real life-
Is this just fantasy-
Caught in a landslide-
No escape from reality -
S&P500 indeks siis -0.1%. Justkui pidupäev investoritele, ei teagi kohe, mida peale hakata. Võib šampusel korgid ära lasta : )
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BUCY, kes on viimasel ajal kõvasti pihta saanud avaldab täna peale turge kvartalitulemused. Võib osutuda üsna huvitavaks põrkekandidaadiks.
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S&P ja DJIA lõpetasid kenas plussis.
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Oh seda rõõmu homme tallinna börsil. Paneme aga kell 9.45 monitorid kenasti surisema.
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MSFT ei olegi väga paha. Vähemalt üks rahamasin töötab täie hooga.
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Jah jim, tõepoolest. Numbrid on isegi täitsa okeid MSFT-l.
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hoku?
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Prognoose küll alandatakse, kuid eks siin ole oma osa ka majanduskeskkonna ebamäärasusel ja ettevaatlikkusel:
Microsoft beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY09 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (22.32 +0.79) : Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.48 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 9.4% year/year to $15.1 bln vs the $14784.2 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.51-0.53 vs. $0.55 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $17.3-17.8 bln vs. $17.96 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.00-2.10 vs. $2.11 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $64.9-66.4 bln vs. $66.51 bln consensus. Microsoft's business outlook reflects a balance of risks and the likelihood of a continued economic slowdown. The trends seen late in the first-quarter are now forecasted to continue, whereas previous expectations were for the economy to improve in the second half of the fiscal year. In this economic environment, the company is focused on three main actions; working with customers to provide high value products at the lowest total overall cost of ownership, increasing focus on expense management and targeting investment into the highest priority strategic opportunities.
