Börsipäev 17. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Huvitav latam FX comment: If anything should break the log jam that has crimped credit, Big Ben Bernanke and the boys have given the market a signal, they WILL make buying assets profitable. Mortgage rates WILL come down, homeowners WILL be able to afford to stay in their homes as they refinance and lower their monthly nut. The American economy WILL be able to pull out of this. When the world was different, when credit was available, Brazil boomed and Mexico was buoyant. The Fed decision makes investments in both that much more attractive again.
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kui sa vaatad, kuidas on viimasel kuuel kuul käitunud näiteks 30y fixed mortgage, siis on see juba mingil määral toimunud.
eilse järelmõjudest -
kristjani jutu kinnituseks graafik ka (bankrate 30Y fixed):
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ja on olnud arvamusi, et fed võiks võtta eesmärgiks liigutada see 4,5% tasemele, et müümata kinnisvara kiiremini kaubaks läheks.
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Selles artiklis oli arvamus, mille kohaselt võidakse intressimäärasid nii madalal hoida 2010. aasta keskpaigani. See on küll kergelt öeldes hirmutav.
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hirmutab investoreid kõrgema tootlusega varade poole, seda küll :-)
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Tänased kaks huvitavat sündmust võiksid olla OPECi kohtumine Alžeerias, millelt oodatakse päevase tootmismahu langetamist 2 miljoni barreli võrra ning Morgan Stanley (MS) eelturul avaldatavad tulemused. MS-lt oodatakse Q4 EPSi -$0.34, veel kuu aja eest olid konsensuse ootused $0.30.
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Tere taas ka minu poolt! Nagu aru olete saanud, siis viibisin arvutist mõnda aega eemal. Selle aja jooksul õnnestus mul USAs ringi käia, suhelda sealsete finantssektori töötajatega ja näha, kuidas majanduse olukorda riigis seespool kajastatakse. Päris huvitavaid asju jäi silma ning kirjutan sellest varsti ka pikemalt.
Eile oli aktsiaturg enne Föderaalreservi intressimääraotsust kenasti plussis ning traditsiooniliselt oleks järgnenud sellele määrade langetamise järgselt ’sell the news’ efekt. Ilmselt päris paljud läksid selle peale välja, kuid tulemuseks oli õhtu eel hoopis short squeeze. Praeguseks üle 2% indeksid eelturul eilsetest tasemetest ära andnud.
Siiski eilse intressimäärade langetamisega viidi USA intressimäärad põhimõtteliselt 0% peale ning selles olukorras pole ükski ameeriklane varem olnud. Ollakse taas tegemas ajalugu. Olen aga korduvalt öelnud, et radikaalsed ajad nõuavad radikaalseid meetmeid ning seetõttu selline lõpptulemus mind ei üllata. Kas määrasid hoitakse 0% peal 2010. aasta keskpaigani või mitte, see vast polegi enam nii oluline – eks neid hoitakse lihtsalt nii madalal kui võimalik seni, kuni USA sõna otseses mõttes uus majandus ükskkord taas jalad alla saab...
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Apple (AAPL) teatas eile, et ettevõte võtab veel viimast korda osa MacWorld Expost ning et 6. jaanuaril toimuvale sündmusele Steve Jobs ise kohale ei sõida. Teade lõi investoritel jalad nõrgaks ning aktsiat müüdi järelturul tugevalt alla. Oppenheimer on esimene analüüsimaja, kes sellise teate peale ka oma soovitust muutma tõttas 'Outperformi' pealt 'Performi' peale järgmiste sõnadega:
"Oppenheimer downgrades Apple (AAPL 95.43) to Perform from Outperform saying they don't know why Steve Jobs has pulled out of his annual address at Macworld on January 6. Firm says maybe he's not feeling well, or maybe he just has nothing new to say. Whatever the reason, the unexpected announcement has underscored the greatest risk to Apple's long-term success-its dependence on Jobs' health and its apparent lack of a succession plan."
Antud juhul tundub mulle niivõrd suur reageering Wall Streeti poolt üllatav...
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Apple puhul arvatakse kõige enam, et Jobs taandub avalikkuse eest sammhaaval, näitamaks, et ettevõte suudab ka ilma temata funktisoneerida. Ka aktsia eilne langus näitas, et seni on tegemist ikkagi ühemehe-show'ga ning seda arvamust püütakse nüüd kummutada.
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Ecuador default: Fears grow that others will follow
Üllatuslikult ei olegi Ekuador esimene, kes võlga tagasi ei maksnud.
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Morgan Stanley (MS) teenis neljandas kvartalis prognoositud -$0.34 asemel kahjumit -$2.24. Eelturul osa eilsest tõusut käest antud, aktsia -8.5%.
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Ma ei imesta, et defaulditakse, kui selline vasakpoolne mölakas pukis on. No vaadake seda nägu! Nagu kinnisvaraärikal 2007nda aasta suvel. :-D
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Saksamaa DAX -0.44%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.17%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.29%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.32%
Venemaa MICEX +0.68%
Poola WIG -1.11%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.52%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.18%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.09%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.64%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.29%
Tai Set 50 +0.22%
India Sensex 30 -2.62%
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Cautiously Optimistic
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/17/2008 7:59 AM EST
We have all eternity to celebrate our victories, but only one short hour before sunset in which to win them.
-- Robert Moffat
With the help of a bigger-than-expected interest rate cut, the bulls pulled off a nice gain on Tuesday. Volume was a bit light, but the point gain was big and the sense of relief great. The most promising development was that the charts of the major indices were back around their 50-day simple moving average, which they last saw back in September.
The moving average line is important because it is an indication of the general trend. When an indices move above the average price over the last 50 days, it tells us that buyers are starting to dominate and are providing some underlying support.
However, the last thing we should do here is celebrate. This market is not going to go straight back up. In fact, if you operate on the assumption that the bear market is over and that we have seen the lows, you are very likely to find yourself in trouble fairly soon.
Further market upside will not come easily. Even if we do reach some key technical levels, we are faced with formidable overhead resistance. There are a lot of people who will be happy to exit this market if they can cut some of the losses they suffered this year.
Not only will we have to deal with overhead resistance, but it is unlikely that the very high levels of volatility are going to go away. We have seen the VIX fall back to October levels, but it's near support levels now. With market players having to resort to shorter and shorter time frames to deal with this market, it won't take much to drive that back up.
I don't mean to sound too negative, but I cringe when market players are so quick to celebrate. I don't recall how many times we have had a huge one-day bounce this year just to see the gains quickly melt away. Perhaps we will have something more lasting this time, but the best thing to do is to take the immediate opportunities presented and to be cautiously optimistic rather than throw caution to the wind and dance on the grave of the bear market.
I'm still cautiously optimistic that we will have some better upside action as the year winds down; however, I'm going to not only ignore but scorn the folks who want to talk about market bottoms and the end of the bear market. What we have right now is a bear-market bounce. It may very well go higher, but this is no time for celebration. It is a time for some hard work to make sure we effectively navigate what will remain one of the most difficult trading markets ever.
We are off to a weak start as European banks set a negative tone. OPEC is trying to support crude oil prices with supply cuts, but crude is already back down below $43, which goes to show how much supply and how little demand there is as a result of this terrible economy.
The bulls now have an opportunity to show us how much confidence they have in yesterday's celebration. Unfortunately, they are looking hung over rather than energized.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PLAB +10.6%, PAY +10.2%, ADBE +9.1%, GIS +4.5%, LNN +4.4%, JOYG +3.2%... Few drybulk shippers ticking higher boosted by Merrill upgrades of select names: FRO +3.0%, GNK +2.0% (upgraded to Neutral at Merrill), DSX+1.2%... Other news: SAY +35.1% (not to go ahead with Maytas acquisition), SD +6.7% (announces reduced 2009 capital budget and revised 2009 production guidance), CX +5.5% (continued momentum from yesterday's 15%+climb higher), SYT +3.7% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: TEVA +1.6% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup), RAH +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse; also Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LEG -13.0%, NWL -11.2%, HOV -9.8%, ROCK -8.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Piper), MS -6.3%, HMC -4.6%, AMCC -3.6%... Select financial stocks pulling back with disappointing LEG guidance and MS results: CIT -13.3% (announces $250 mln common stock offering), DB -10.2%, BCS -8.9%, MELI -8.8% (initiated with Sell at Citigroup), HBC -8.3%, UBB -8.2%, RBS -7.1%, AXA -5.0%, UBS -4.2%, IBN -4.0%, LYG -3.4% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche), MER -3.1%, WB -2.5%, FITB -2.4% (declared Q4 cash dividend on its common shares of $0.01, a reduction from the third quarter level of $0.15 per share), C -2.3% (US ratchets up Citi oversight - WSJ), GNW -2.3%, ING -1.9%, WFC -1.8%, JPM -1.7%, GS -1.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: RIO -7.4%, RTP -5.3%, GFI -4.8%, AAUK -4.6% (slashes 09 Capex in uncertain economy - DJ), MT -3.0%, BBL -3.0%, BHP -1.9%... Select oil/gas related names showing weakness with crude lower: PBR -5.8%, RDS.A -3.1%, E -1.2%, COP -1.0%... Other news: LIZ -5.6% (suspends quarterly cash dividend), DAL -5.3% (files for an ~18.17 mln share common stock continuous offering program, in which the co may offer and sell the shares of stock from time to time through Citi Global Markets as their sales agent), SAP -3.8% (still checking for anything specific), KMP -3.7% (still checking), AZN -3.1% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: OMG -8.5% (downgraded to Underweight at Keybanc), TKC -5.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), EXPD -5.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), GLW -2.7% (coverage assumed with Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), MAR -2.7% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), CBY -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), AXP -2.3% (initiated with Reduce at SunTrust). -
Ka Cramer ütleb, et Fedi eilne otsus määrad nulli tõmbata oli õige otsus - tänases olukorras ei olnud enam alternatiivi. Cramerilt ka vihje ECB ja BoE suunas, et ka Euroopa oma määrasid nobedalt jätkuvalt langetaks...
"Why did the Fed really do what it did yesterday, which is go nuclear, pull out the stops, make sure that people realized it was worried only about deflation and recession? Because it reads the newspapers and watches TV. It was impossible to listen to Jamie Dimon last week and realize that nothing was working that they had done yet. He basically told you, "It ain't working, it ain't going to work." They know they are staring at a Citigroup (C) and a Wells Fargo (WFC) that have tens of billions of mortgages still on their balance sheets that TARP ain't ever going to buy. Bank of America (BAC) is loaded to the gills with the stuff. But more important is the layoffs. Day after day they come in and hear about Bristol-Myers (BMY) firing 10% of this or Goldman (GS) firing 10% of that or Best Buy (BBY) slashing payrolls and BAC laying off 30,000 people. They are watching the employment claims and they see that things are about to go to 10% -- that all-bets-are-off territory where everything goes awry and defaults for everything skyrocket.
You see the largest corporations in the country have thrown down the gauntlet. "We will fire everyone we need to fire to adjust to this new world," they are saying. The companies are saying that Main Street is going down, but they are not going to go down with it. Yes, the Fed acted out of desperation. It had to drop the pretense -- under which it was still operating -- that the risks are balanced! I mean the risks between a severe recession and a depression. They have chosen wisely. Late, but wisely, Now let's hope other nations join them." -
Credit Suisse langetas täna General Electricu (GE) hinnasihti $17-ni (varasem $18) ning Sterne Agee on alandanud soovitust "müü" peale. Viimane siis lihtsalt infoks.
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OPEC valmistub teadaandeks
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Naftafutuurid taas plusspoolele kosunud.
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OPEC has agreed to cut oil output by 4.2 mln bpd from Sept output, according to Secretary General Abdalla Salem El Badri
Nafta paariprotsendilisest miinusest tõusnud plussi.
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Vaadates nafta reaktsiooni, siis 2 mln bpd kärpimine oleks nafta hinna vabalangusesse saatnud. Praegu flat.
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2.2 kärbiti, mitte 4.2
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kas 1 .1 .09 st toodetakse juba 29.015 - 4.2 m. bpd?Et esimeseks peavad vahendused juba ellu viidud olema?
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2 miljonit vähendati varem, tänane langetus lisaks oli 2.2 miljonit.
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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut output from a daily level of 29.045 million barrels three months ago, indicating a new quota target of 24.845 barrels a day.
The reduction will take place from the start of next year.
from the start of ?? ja millal siis soovitud uuele tootmistasemele joutakse, nafta kaib vahepeal vist negatiivsel teritooriumil ara. -
Eks need kvoodid olegi indikatiivsed - perfektse kartelliga tegu pole. Mõnikord toodetakse üle, mõnikord alla. Väevõimuga kedagi väga sundida ei saa. Aga kui mu arvutused õiged said, siis OPEC on pärast tänast otsust oma septembri tasemetega võrreldes vähendamas tootmist 15% jagu.
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...mis peaks olema ca 6% kogu maailma nafta toodangust siis (2007. aastal toodeti üle maailma 73.3 miljonit barrelit naftat päevas).
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2008.a. tipptoodang oli 83 mln barrelit. kahjuks on number peast, ei mäleta, kust lugesin.
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http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3720
muu müra kõrval on seal selline lause:
The all liquid peak is now May 2008 at 86.05 mbpd. -
Okei, selge - sellisel juhul OPECi poolt vähendatav 4.2 miljonit on ca 5% 'all-time peak productionist'. Siia võib siis lisada ka tõenäolised vähendamised mitte-OPEC tootjate poolt. Päris korralik pakkumise koomaletõmbamine pikemas perspektiivis.
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EUR/USD on 1 nädalaga liikunud 1.3 pealt 1.44 peale. Tugevnemist 11% - taaskord ebamugavalt suur liikumine väga lühikese aja jooksul...
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Kui palju LHV klientidele sellega valuutaspreadi laiemaks tõmbab? =)
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Maailma suurimate valuutade ebastabiilsus muudab ettevõtete investeerimisotsuste tegemise äärmiselt keeruliseks... Vähem investeerimisotsuseid, vähem töökohti ja madalam SKP. Mida rohkem ebastabiilsust ja närvilisust, seda ebamugavam olukord kõigile.
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jyriado, loe ja imesta: USD USA dollar 10.690000 11.181000
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Kui LHV end valuutade kõikumiste vastu kaitsnud on, kas LHV kliendid siis ei saaks sellest privileegist ka kuidagimoodi osa?
See spread meenutab Tallinna bussijaama valuutavahetuspunkti juba. -
loe ja imesta kuidas iga mehe jaoks peab üle seletama, seda et
1) LHV kasutab Swedbanki kursse (vrdl. ülekande kursid Swedbanki kodulehel),
2) Swedbanki kursid on laiad ajavahemikus 17.00 - 08.30 või umbes midagi säärast ehk väljaspool tööaega pangas
3) ei ole vajalik ajavahjemikus 17.00 - 08.30 konverteerida, tuleks aktsepteerida võimenduse eritingimusi ja orderi edastamisel võtta linnuke ära kastist ""teosta automaatne konverteerimine" ning konverteerida sobival ajal sobiva kursiga
suht värskelt lõppes arutelu samal teemal siin -
Küsimus oli pigem selles, kas tavauser saab ennast kaitsta nii, nagu seda LHV teeb?
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damn
ja ma just konverteerisin mingi kirve kursiga väärtusetuid rublasid -
olukord hakkab rahunema
VIX Volatility Index moves below 50 for the first time since Nov 5 -
VIX langeb=Turg tõuseb
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SRS võiks lähiajal tõotada üsna head treidi. Hetkel kauplemas päris atraktiivsel tasemel juba.
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SRS tundub jah siit päris hea ost, ainuke probleem selles, et see nii rõvedalt volatiilne. Minu närvid ei pea hästi vastu sellisele asjale :)
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kv short on see jah?
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usd vastu kaitseb oanda
saab ka swedis 10 pipsise spreadiga, igatahes mitte 200 pipsisega nagu siin ilmneb
