Börsipäev 8. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Australia ASX 100 -63.50 -2.08% 2,991.60 4/8 2:32pm
Australia ASX All Ords -73.40 -2.01% 3,575.10 4/8 2:32pm
Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 -60.70 -1.93% 3,090.20 4/8 2:32pm
Hong Kong Hang Seng -580.76 -3.89% 14,348.21 4/8 12:32pm
Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip -100.12 -3.12% 3,106.41 4/8 12:32pm
Japan Nikkei 225 -242.02 -2.74% 8,590.83 4/8 12:45pm
Külm hommik aasias. -
Aasia turgudel on langust vedamas kaevandajad ja metallitootjad, juhindudes Alcoa eilsetest majandustulemustest. Alumiiniumitootja teine järjestikuline kvartaalne kahjum (59 senti aktsia kohta) ostus suuremaks analüütikute ootustest (56 senti). Ettevõte kolme kuu käive kukkus aastaga 41% 4.15 miljardi dollarini. Konverentsikõnes tööstuse paranemist nii pea ei oodatud:
Co discusses the industry... says the decline in the end markets and the current high inventory level will lead to a 7% decline in 2009's aluminum global consumption, which equals 34.5 mln metric tons. That's following a 3% decline in 2008. Looking at the regions, only China won't have losses but Europe and North America will decline 15%.
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Olulist makrot jagub tänasesse päeva vähe. Euroopas võib turgudele toetust pakkuda info, et vabalangusesse sattunud Saksa tööstustellimused on veebruarikuus veidi stabiliseerinud (Eesti aja järgi kell 13.00). Õhtul aga avaldatakse FOMC märtsikuu protokoll, kus huviorbiidis on arutelu Treasury teemal ning vihjed võlakirja programmi võimaliku suurendamise osas.
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23. märtsil tõstis Goldman Renaulti "müü" soovituse "neutraalse" peale, mille järel on viimase aktsia kerkinud 15.5 eurolt 20 euroni. Oluliseks katalüsaatoriks on seejuures olnud positiivset kasvu näidanud automüüginäitajad Saksamaal, Prantsusmaal ja Itaalias. Viimaste päevade ralli ajenadab aga reitingut täna taas muutma, langetades selle uuesti "müü" peale, kuna esimese kvartali tulemused tuletavad meelde, milliste raskustega ettevõtte oma põhitegevuses jätkuvalt silmitsi seisab. Valuatsiooni tõttu sai müügisoovitus sai ka Fiat, ent analüüsimaja arvates võib võib viimasest saada Euroopa üks parimaid müüjaid. Daimleri reiting kergitati "neutraalse" pealt "osta" peale, sest väidetavalt on turg juba mannetut veokimüüki esimese kvartali tulemustesse sisse arvestanud. Restruktureerimine ja konkreetsem väljavaade tuleviku osas võiks aktsiale positiivselt mõjuda.
Renaulti aktsiagraafik
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Euroopa indeksid on hommikustest põhjadest kosumas ning USA futuurid samamoodi kõrgemale liikunud:
DAX -0.62%,
CAC40 -0.72%,
FTSE100 -0.62%,
RTS +0.54%,
Dow fut -0.8% @ 7698
Nasdaq 100 fut -0.3% @ 1276
S&P500 fut -0.68% @ 808
EUR/USD -0.004 @ 1.3223
Nafta -1.35 @ 47.8 USD
Kuld +6.5 @ 887.7 USD
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Nõudlus Saksa tööstuskaupade vastu jätkus veebruaris kukkumist seitsmendat kuud, kahanedes jaanuari baasil -3.5% ehk oodatust 1.4 protsendipunkti võrra enam. Aastaguse ajaga võrreldes vähenesid tellimused rekordilised -38.2%. Euroopa turud katkestasid tõusu ning SP500 ja Dow tagasi üle protsendi miinuses.
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Hiinal tasub silma peal hoida ja sealt ka tänane infokild halvenemise vähenemisest:
Reuters reports Chinese exports in March were down by double digits from a year earlier, but the decline was smaller than in February, a newspaper linked to the Ministry of Commerce reported on Wednesday. The International Business Daily cited an unnamed ministry official for its information. Exports in February fell 25.7% from a year earlier. Economists polled by Reuters expect a 21.5% fall in March. If the report is borne out when the trade figures are released in coming days, it would be the latest piece of tentative evidence that the economy could be over the worst of a slump induced by the global credit crunch. The sub-index for new orders in this month's purchasing managers' indexes for China improved -- although both remained firmly in negative territory -- while the year-on-year rate of decline in power generation slowed in March to 0.71% from 3.7% in the first two months.
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arweni mainitud külm hommik Aasias ei puudutanud Indiat, sealse turu erinevad indeksid peale eilset gapiga üles avanemist ka täna 2-3% tõusus ja YTD tippudel ... soomusrongi BRIC 2 vagunit (Brasiilia ja Hiina) on juba 6 kuu tipud teinud, Indial ei jää enam palju puudu
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Discount retailerid saavad USA majanduslanguse keskkonnas endaga hakkama. Family Dollari (FDO) tulemused näitavad täna hommikul ootustele vastavat EPSi $0.60 ning müügitulu $1.99 mld vs oodatud $1.92 mld. Müügitulu kasv aastataguse perioodiga 8.2%.
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Henno kommentaarile siis lisaks veel, et paljude välisriikide börside liikumist kajastavaid börsilkaubeldavadi fonde on võimalik osta lihtsalt USA börsilt. Ei pea alati üksikaktsiate valimisega tegelema.
Näiteks India puhul sümbol IFN, Hiina puhul FXI, Tai puhul TTF, Lõuna-Korea puhul EWY, Hong Kong EWH, Brasiilia EWZ, Malaisia EWM, Jaapan EWJ, Singapur EWS, Venemaa RSX jne.
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Natukene pessimismi vahelduseks:
Oppenheimer lowers ests on MS, JPM, BAC, and C primarily due to write-downs, charge-offs, and provisions; raises ests on GS
Overall, Opco believes sees large-cap banks outlook as providing stable "core" revenues, expenses and earnings before credit loss provisions and markdowns on securities positions. These relatively stable pre-provision earnings are likely to be nicked by continued markdowns, but they believe that these are likely to be diminishing from prior quarters. Securities prices have generally anticipated the current economic stress, but loan portfolios are accounted for on an accrual basis. The big event of 2009, in their minds, is likely to be the ongoing erosion of loan loss portfolios; they expect the deterioration to continue in full swing. Firm lowers their estimates for MS (FY09 EPS to $1.27 from $2.29 v $1.64 consensus), JPM ($0.95 from $1.03 v $1.45 consensus), and BAC ($0.38 from $0.45 v $0.35 consensus) primarily due to write-downs, charge-offs, and provisions. They raise their GS FY009 EPS est to $6.37 from $6.05 ($7.96 consensus), driven by more robust trading. For C, they are lowering 2010 estimate to $0.25 from $0.39 (($0.08) consensus) primarily due to higher loan loss provisions. Opco continues to believe that investment banking businesses are further through the cycle than commercial banking businesses, and that they will recover first.
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Kuigi Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) on tänaseks kukkunud juba 20 kauplemispäeva järjest, ei kiirustaks järelduste tegemisega. Detsembri põhjadest on indeks siiski kaks korda kõrgemal.
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Alari kommentaari juurde, milline võiks välja näha finantssektori taastumise järjekord ja teekond, lingin siia neile, kes pole seda tähele pannud või tahavad lithsalt sisu meelde tuletada, ka oma 19. märtsi loo "Kuidas taastub finantssektori?".
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Võimsa tõusu tegid täna Poola turud. USA aktsiaturg on praeguseks miinustest välja roninud ja kaupleb plusspoolel.
Saksamaa DAX +1.08%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.99%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.11%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.55%
Venemaa MICEX +2.51%
Poola WIG +4.38%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.69%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.04%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.77%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.30%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.49%
Tai Set 50 +0.30%
India Sensex 30 +1.97%
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Wishful Thinking
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/8/2009 8:41 AM EDT
"I was taught that the way of progress was neither swift nor easy."
-- Marie Curie
Earnings season is fast approaching and is going to make or break this market. Technically, things have been setting up well. We have had a big bounce and have seen some consolidation over the past couple days. While there were some rather aggressive pullbacks in spots, the overall volume was light, and we have not pulled back enough to break any major support.
The S&P 500 can probably withstand a pullback to the 50-day simple moving average, around 790. If it loiters around the 800 mark for long, however, it will be easy for the recent momentum to slip away.
The selling over the past couple of days has been healthy and actually may help the psychology going into earnings season. We need some nervousness and uncertainty rather than high expectations. It is very unlikely that we are going to hear a lot of good news, but that isn't going to be a big problem if expectations are low enough.
Regardless of low expectations, there are bound to be some very ugly landmines along the way, so the trading is very likely to stay tricky. Of course, that won't be anything new; even with the rally off the March low, this is still a very tricky environment to navigate. After a long bear market, it just isn't possible to be too trusting of momentum at this stage of what may be nothing other than a short-lived bear market bounce. We have had little testing of support so far, and confidence in charts is still very fragile.
The biggest change for the market recently has been some increased optimism about the overall economy. We keep hearing about how folks are feeling a little better and how there are some small signs of improvement. We definitely could use more confidence-building. At this stage, it is still just a lot of wishful thinking and sliding back down the slope of hope is what happens in a bear market.
We have news on the wires that TARP funds are being extended to insurers, which is boosting that group a bit. The SEC is discussing some sort of modified short-selling rule such as a circuit breaker that triggers an uptick rule if a stock falls 10% or more. There will be plenty of debate over that topic.
I'm looking for choppy trading to continue. There isn't a lot of news flow, and we'll probably have some skittishness continue about earnings season. Stay selective with your stock picks, and make sure you aren't too trusting of pullbacks. The selling could easily accelerate as support levels are tested.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RT +15.6%, BBBY +13.7%, WBSN +11.6%, JNPR +6.0%, AA +3.0%... M&A news: CTX +28.0% (CTX to be acquired by PHM in deal that values CTX at $10.50 per share; Other homebuilders reacting positively include: BZH +18%, HOV +11%, LEN +8.0%, KBH +5.4%, RYL +3.1%... Insurance stocks showing strength following WSJ report that the Treasury has decided to extend bailout funds to a number of struggling life-insurance cos: GNW +24.4%, HIG +21.1%, LNC +21.0%, PFG +15.3%, PRU +8.6%, XL +5.6%, MET +4.3%... Analyst comments: KG +5.8% (added to Americas Conviction Buy list at Goldman - Reuters), GT +5.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: R -10.1%, RECN -8.9%, MOS -5.1%... M&A news: PHM -6.9% (to acquire CTX for ~$10.50 per share)... Ag fertilizer stocks showing weakness following disappointing MOS earnings: AGU -7.3%, IPI -3.9%, POT -3.5%... Irish bank stocks trading lower following Moody's downgrades: IRE -13.6%, AIB -10.4%... Other news: CEF -7.1% (plans to offer Class A Shares of Central Fund in Canada and the U.S. under its existing U.S. base shelf prospectus), ... Analyst comments: ELX -6.0% (downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan), STX -4.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan), GRMN -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird). -
Joel. vaatasin et oli ka sinu välisriikide fondide nimekirjas EWH Hong Kong, kuid kas see GCH kajastab Hang Sengi?
Rainer -
Rainer,
GCH puhul on (sarnaselt FXIga) tegu peamiselt Hiina aktsiaturu liikumist jälgiva indeksiga. Laias laastus on GCH's 60% Hiina ja 25% Hong Kongi börsiettevõtteid. EWHs aga 100% Hong Kongi börsiettevõtted. GCH portfelli sisu saab vaadata siit, kuid tähtsamate nimede osakaal muidu aasta lõpu seisuga selline:
China Mobile 10.5%
Industrial & Commercial Bank 10.2%
China Life Insurance 6.6%
China Construction Bank 5.5%
CNOOC 4.6%
Ping An Insurance 4.5%
Petrochina 4%
China Overseas Land 3.7%
China Petroleum & Chemical 3.3%
Cheung Kong 2.8%
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Nafta liigub raporti peale üles - rõhk varude vähenemisel distillaatide juures:
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 1645K (consensus is a build of 1500K); gasoline inventories had a build of 656K (consensus is a draw of 1400K); distillate inventories had a draw of 3354K (consensus is a draw of 600K). -
FOMC minutes: Fed staff cuts 2H '09, '10 GDP forecasts; sees jobless rate up 'more steeply' into '10
FOMC Minutes: Fed funds rate to stay "exceptionally low"
FOMC Minutes: Fed felt US economy was deteriorating, foreign activity softening
Although the minutes don't raise any new concerns, the negative tone is leading to some minor pressure in what has been a very choppy holiday week.
FOMC ilma eriliste üllatusteta ja jätkuva negatiivse fooni tõttu liigub turg hetkel siiski kergelt allapoole.
