LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 20. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Hiina SKT kasv kiirenes neljandas kvartalis 9,6% pealt 9,8% peale YoY, ületades Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute keskmist ootust, milleks oli 9,4%. Detsembrikuu inflatsioon alanes novembriga võrreldes 5,1% pealt 4,6% peale, kuid mitmete analüüsimajade sõnul on hinnatõus jaanuaris taas hoogu kogunud ning küündimas juba 6%-ni, mistõttu loevad turuosalised intressimäärade edasist tõstmist üsna möödapääsmatuks.
    Shanghai Composite sulgus ligi 3% madalamal, kui langejate eesotsas olid pangad ja kinnisvaraarendajad. Bloomberg vahendab, et Hiina pangad laenasid jaanuari esimeste nädalatega välja üle 1 triljoni jüaani ning väidetavalt on riigile kuuluv China Development Bank andnud alates 18. jaanuarist käsu peatada jaanuari lõpuni uute laenude väljastamine. Mullu kirjutasid Hiina finantsinstitutsioonid välja 7,95 triljoni jüaani väärtuses laenusid, ületades riigi poolt seatud 7,5 triljoni jüaani piiri (viimase kahe aasta jooksul on just aasta esimestel kuudel näidatud kõige aktiivsemat laenamist).
    Shanghai Composite

    USA ja Euroopa indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,1-0,2% madalamal.
  • Eile CNBC-s sõna võtnud Marc Faber vaataks paremate investeerimisvõimaluste otsimisel pigem arenenud riikide poole, kuna paljud arenevad maad seisavad silmitsi valikuga kas jahutada majandust või lasta inflatsioonil kiireneda, mis pole aga kumbki just kõige soodsam tegur aktsiate jaoks. Link
  • Makrokalendrit vaadates Euroopast olulisi uudiseid oodata pole ning pigem pööratakse pilgud USA poole, kus kell 15.30 avalikustatakse möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste numbrid. Viimaste kuude jooksul on trend olnud allapoole, kuid jaanuari esimesel nädalal toimus ootamatult suur spike ülespoole, mida paljud kirjutavad hooajalisuse arvele ning pakutakse, et mitmed ettevõtted võisid pühade tõttu vallandamisi edasi lükata. Konsensus prognoosib esmaste tatluste arvuks 425K (445K varasemal nädalal) ja kestvate taotluste arvuks 3900K (3879K). Kell 17.00 avalikustatakse detsembrikuu olemasolevate majade müük, juhtivate indikaatorite indeks ja jaanuarikuu Philadelphia Fedi PMI.
  • Alloeval graafikul on on Brenti ja WTI kõrval välja toodud kahe madalama väävli sisaldusega toornafta sordi hinnad (Nigeeriast eksporditav Bonny Light ja Malaisia Tapis). Viimased on Brentist ja WTI-st üldjuhul veidi kallimad, kuna neist saab rohkem kütust toota, ent kui sweet oil'i tugev nõudlus 100 dollari juures ja üle selle võiks mingiks indikatsiooniks olla, siis pole ostjatel alates Hiinast kuni USA-ni probleemi ka WTI ja Brenti barreli eest 100 dollarit maksta. Samas hoiatas Rahvusvaheline Energiaagentuur üsna hiljuti, et 100 dollarit on piiriks, kust alates võivad energiakulud majanduste taastumist pidurdama hakata.
  • Jätkame igapäevaselt oma tulemustehooaja tabeli uuendamist ning eilsed numbrid on nüüdseks sisse kantud. Vaata siit. Esimeste avaldajate põhjal on küll vara üldist järeldust teha, kuid siiani on vaatamata ootuste ületamisele reaktsioon olnud pigem negatiivne. Pärast mitme kuu pikkust rallit koheldakse aga eriti karmilt neid ettevõtteid, mis valmistavad pettumuse ja/või tõmbavad oma tuleviku prognoose madalamale.
  • Eile peale turu sulgemist teatas USA ravimiamet, et on edastanud MannKind (MNKD)-le CRL ( complete response letter), milles nõutakse ettevõtte poolt arendatavale diabeediravimi Afrezzale uus kliinilisi uuuringuid. Turuosalistele see uudis muidugi meeltmööda polnud ning need investorid, kes olid salamisi siiski lootnud ravimiameti heakskiitu, ostes firma CEO Alfred Mann`i eeskujul MNKD aktsiaid pidid eile kurvalt tõdema, et aktsia on jälle tagasi oma suvise taseme ehk $5 juures, olles kaotanud poole oma väärtusest.

    Adam Feuerstein kirjutab täna thestreet.com veebilehel, et Mann on Afrezza arendusse investeerinud ligi $1 miljardi oma isiklikku raha, mis omakorda tõstis veelgi investorite meelekindlust, et edukas ettevõtja ei peta nende lootusi ka seekord.

    Kuid nüüd on Afrezza ravimiameti poolt juba teist korda tagasi lükatud ning lisauuringute nõue tähendab Feuersteini sõnul seda, et parimal juhul saab ravim heakskiidu alles 2012. aasta teises pooles. Reaalne prognoos aga viitab pigem 2013. aastale ja sedagi eeldusel, et kõik kliinilised uuringud annavad ka positiivseid tulemusi.

    Feuerstein kirjutab, et vaatamata sellele, et Mann on rikas mees ei jaksa ka tema MannKind`i igavesti rahastada ning praegu põletab firma raha üsna kiires tempos ning kõigi eelduste kohaselt pole firmal kolmandaks kvartaliks enam pennigi hinge taga.
  • Morgan Stanley on oma tulemustega vedanud finantssektori eelturul plusspoolele. MS ise +3,8%

    Morgan Stanley prelim $0.43 vs $0.35 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $7.8 bln vs $7.35 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
  • Eile teatas oma kvartalitulemused F5 Networks (FFIV), mis jäid paraku konsensuse ülimalt kõrgetele ootustele alla. Aktsia kukkus järelturul üle 20% $107 tasemeni.

    Täna on mitmed analüüsimajad väljas omapoolsete kommentaaridega ning kaks neist ütlevad, et tegemist on hea ostukohaga.

    Credit Suisse ja Gleacher &Company tõstavad FFIV aktsiareitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ning esimese hinnasihiks on $134 ja teise $130.

    Upgrade—Buying Opportunity: We would take advantage of the significant pull-back in FFIV’s shares post its announcement of FY1Q11 results and FY2Q11 outlook to accumulate shares. We have raised our rating to Outperform and our TP to $134 and have increased our operating forecasts. Bottom-line: we see no meaningful change in FFIV’s rev or EPS growth outlook.

    FFIV remains leveraged to some of strongest secular growth drivers in all of tech including data center consolidation, mobile data and application growth, cloud computing adoption and storage growth.

    Credit Suisse analüütikud ütlevad, et näevad firmas tegevuses endiselt suurt potentsiaali ( Cloud com ning vaatamata tagasihoidlikele tulemustele ei näe nad märkimisväärset muutust firma käibekasvu potentsiaali osas ning soovitavad aktsiat osta.

    We are upgrading FFIV to a BUY rating with a price target of $130 as we believe the risk/reward profile has once again turned favorable with roughly 20% upside potential in the near-term.
    Best-in-class produkt portfolio. With a host of high-end (VIPRION/11050/8900/8400 Series), mid-range (6900 Series), and entry-level (3900/1600 Series) ADCs in its BIG-IP product family, F5 is well-positioned to compete against Cisco, Citrix, Brocade/Foundry and Radware (which purchased the Alteon assets from bankrupt Nortel).


    Gleacher analüütikud aga ütlevad, et firmal on omasuguste seas parim tootevalik ning seetõttu on ettevõttel ka hea konkurentsieelis Cisco,Citrix ja Radware vastu. Analüütikud leiavad, et nüüd kus aktsia on all 20% pakub see investoritele suurepärast ostuvõimalust.

    FFIV aktsia kauples eilsel järelturul ka $107 kandis ning nüüdseks on juba omajagu põrganud, kaubeldes $110 kandis. Aktsia põrkab ilmselt veel, aga väga raske on ette ennustada, mis tasemelt ja millises ulatuses. Mina hajutaks positsiooni ning väga pikalt sisse ei jääks.

  • to Nelli: BHI upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO CapitalPrice target raised to $90 from $53 mis sa arvad ,kuidas võib liikuda?
  • Futuurid on makro peale pisut kosunud kaubeldes ca 0,1% miinuses
    Initial Claims 404K vs 425K Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to 441K from 445K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.861 mln from 3.887 mln
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PPDI +4.5%, KONE +3.5%, EBAY +3.1%, MS +2.6%, KMP +0.4%, (light volume).

    Other news: RNN +16.4% (Teva Pharmaceutical increases its investment in Rexahn for continued research and development of pre-clinical anti-cancer compound, RX-3117), DDS +9.2% (discloses intention to form a wholly-owned subsidiary that will seek to operate as a real estate investment trust), ZIOP +7.1% (receives positive opinion for Orphan Drug Designation for Darinaparsin from EMA), WEN +6.3% (confirms that it is exploring strategic alternatives for Arby's Restaurant Group, Inc., including a sale of the brand), ALTH +5.7% (releases positive FOLOTYN results), RGEN +4.6% (licenses rights to use of HDAC3 inhibitors for memory disorders), TTI +3.9% (still checking), SPNC +3.8% (receives FDA approval for site change related to manufacturing of CVX-300 Laser System).

    Analyst comments: BHI +0.9% (ticking higher, upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FFIV -21.1%, PLXS -8.6%, WSTL -8.3%, FCX -5.4%, FITB -4.2% (also announces plans to repay TARP Preferred Shares), PH -3.4%, NRP -3%, TCB -3.0%, KCG -2.9%, ESI -2.8%, STX -2.3% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Craig-Hallum), PGR -1.7% (light volume), HBAN -1.4%, PNC -1%, UNP -1%.

    A few financial related names showing modest weakness following earnings from multiple names in the banking sector: RF -2.2%, BPOP -1.9%, SNV -1.4%.

    Many metals/mining stocks trading lower as gold and silver futures drop tp lowest levels of the morning: IVN -5.4%, PZG -5.0%, HMY -3.2%, HL -3.2%, RIO -3.0%, GOLD -2.5%, SLW -2.4%, RIO -2.7%, PAAS -2.5%, TGB -2.4%, SCCO -2.4%, NG -2.3%, SWC -2.3%, GMO -2.3%, BBL -1.8%, BHP -1.3%.

    Rare earth names modestly pulling back in early trade: REE -2.5%, AVL -2.3%

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -4.1%, HERO -2.4%, RIG -1.2%, PUDA -1.1%, STO -1.0%, SSL -1.0%, BP -0.9%.

    Several FFIV peers/related names are under considerable pressure following disappointing earnings/guidance: RVBD -9.9%, PLXS -8.6%, NTAP -4.6%, RAX -4.3%, APKT -4.2%, CRM -4.1%, CTXS -4.1%, SVVS -4%, VMW -3.7%, JNPR -2.8%, EQIX -2.6%, AKAM -2.5%, CAVM -1.2%.

    A few semi names are also trading lower: ASMI -4.8%, ARMH -3.3%, CRUS -3%, CY -2.9%, ONNN -2.4%, TXN -0.9%, SMH -0.7%,

    A few European drug names are trading lower: GSK -1.4% (trading lower following weakness overseas; GSK was downgraded yesterday at Morgan Stanley), AZN -1.1%, NVS -1.0%.

    Select airlines trading lower following cautious comments from Easyjet related to fuel cost pressures: RYAAY -3.9%, ZNH -3.1%.

    Other news: MNKD -44% (resumed trading--receives Complete Response Letter from the FDA for AFREZZA; also downgraded by multiple analysts), SPEX -18.7% (to sell $2.77 mln of shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase shares of its common stock in a registered direct offering to institutional investors), AIG -14.2% (trading post warrant distribution), CBC -13.5% (common stock to trade over the counter), BCSI -7.3% (still checking), ISLE -6% (Announces Public Offering of 5.3 mln of Common Stock), BFSB -4.6% (receives a letter from NASDAQ stating that co is not in compliance with NASDAQ), ALV -3% (still checking), IHG -2.5% (under pressure following peer Accor disappointing earnings results), BT -2.5% (reports out overnight related to proposals for the co to lower prices to internet service providers), FRX -1.7% (Forest Labs and Pierre Fabre Medicament announce topline Phase III results from a study of Levomilnacipran for the treatment of major depressive disorder).

    Analyst comments: NRP -3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), ALTR -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), NETL -1.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), MEE -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), HCC -1.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James).

  • [b]Negatives Finally Matter[/b
    ]By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/20/2011 8:42 AM EST

    You don't need to pray to God any more when there are storms in the sky, but you do have to be insured. -- Bertolt Brecht

    Since early August, nothing negative has mattered to this market. There have been many compelling bearish arguments, and the technical conditions have defied gravity for so long they simply didn't seem to matter. Yesterday, after a very good earnings report from Apple (AAPL) , the market decided that it was finally going to worry about some of the negatives.

    It is rather ironic that AAPL earnings were the catalyst for a sharp reversal, but that's the perverse manner in which the market tends to operate. The bulls are arguing that the news was great and a selloff is not warranted, but what they fail to recognize is that the market has gone straight up for nearly five months and is badly in need of some consolidation.

    Yesterday was a very unpleasant session for many small-cap stocks, and F5 (FFIV) is adding to the difficulties this morning. It is down $30 after a slight earnings beat and tepid guidance. Some of the bulls seem to be confused by this reaction, but FFIV was priced for perfection and needed to continue to beat estimates and increase guidance to grow into its valuation. A stock with a P/E of 49x can't have a negative book to bill.

    In any event, the FFIV carnage is spreading into all things cloud and is impacting other big-cap technical names across the board. In addition, AIG (AIG) is being slammed, apparently on concerns about the pricing of an offering.

    There are some major landmines out there and we have to make sure we avoid them. The bulls are going to be calling this selloff unjustified, and given how quickly we have come back from any and all dips, it isn't hard to believe we will do it again, but our foremost job is to protect our capital when things start to look shaky.

    Too often market players freeze up and fail to act when the market action turns negative. They just sit and hope that we'll bounce right back and keep on running. That has worked quite well in this market, but when it doesn't, the losses can grow quickly.

    My approach in a market like this is to have very tight stops and to be very aggressive in cutting weak-acting stocks. If the action is soft, I can rebuy my favorite names. If I have to pay up to do so, I look at the additional cost as a form of insurance.

    I'm working on my list of stocks that I want to buy for a bounce, but I'm not in any big rush to do so. This market hasn't had any notable weakness since November, and I'm going to give the bears a little benefit of the doubt. A good shake would actually leave us much healthier for better trading in the near term.

    Be careful and err on the side of caution here. Watch for failed bounce attempts to cement the bearish turn of events. Earnings are due tonight from Google (GOOG) , but after the action in AAPL, the risk of a "sell the news" reaction will be quite high.

    Weekly unemployment claims are out and are better than expected, which is helping a little, but don't get too comfortable.
  • to daniel1: Ma ei ole küll seda note`i ise lugenud,aga nii peale vaadates ma sellele upgrade`le küll täna eriti ei panustaks. Esiteks tundub BMO pigem hiljaks jäänud oma hinnasihi tõstmisega ja teiseks pole see ka väga mõjukas maja ja kolmandaks on aktsial seljataga juba 50% ralli ning tänasel turul selliseid upgrade vist ei puutuks.
  • Usa indeksite futuurid on hetkel liikumas 0,15%-0,2% punases
    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -0,54%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,01%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1,32%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,02%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0,79%
    Venemaa MICEX -1,54%
    Poola WIG -0,34%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,13%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1,70%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2,92%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1,78%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq+0,07%
    Austraalia S&P/ASX 200-1,05%
    Tai Set 50 -1,46%
    India Sensex 30 +0,36%
  • Ka Jim Cramer on täna FFIV kohta positiivseid sõnu lausumas ning allpool mõned tema mõtted realmoney.com veebilehelt.

    OK, what moron was short the F5 Networks (FFIV - commentary - Trade Now) January 140 puts? Or the 135 puts? Or the 130 puts? Or the 125 puts? Or the 120 puts? Or the 115 puts? Or the 110s for that matter?

    I am not kidding. Take a look at the volumes. Sure F5 wasn't blowout. It wasn't what we wanted. I was disappointed because the company is the heart of the cloud and the mobile Internet, the Internet traffic cop that suddenly doesn't have too much business to handle. Does the company no longer wait for the phone to ring to book business? Does F5 actually have to try to get business now? Isn't that what it means when you meet estimates instead of clobbering them like this company has done so often?

    But down 35 points? That speaks of structural problems with the stock, and when I saw the put action, I knew it: Someone (or many people) had gotten hung. There were people sucking up that juicy put premium who were suddenly long a stock they knew only as volatile enough that it generates a lot of premium. They were short the fluff, not long a company that is very difficult to understand at the heart of the two biggest secular trends of the moment: the cloud and the mobile Internet tsunami.

    And there was only a day left. No wonder the premium was so thick. It was worth every penny, precisely why I say never short puts. Ever. Not to create a stock cheaply. Not to bring in income. Never. Limited upside, unlimited downside, as those who now own this stock by fiat are finding out.

    Of course, one look at the stock tells you that, on top of China overheating and the miserable Cree (CREE - commentary - Trade Now) quarter, we are going to have a tough one. Plus, I am overwhelmed with people asking "when do we buy." You should be asking "what do you buy that you are sure of and when do we nibble." You can't be that eager because we don't know enough yet about what "went wrong" at F5.

    We just know that the reaction is put stoked to the max, and that's behind the second leg of the freak out after the initial disappointment.


  • January Philadelphia Fed 19.3 vs 20.0 Briefing.com consensus; December 20.8
    December Leading Indicators +1% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus
    December Existing Home Sales 5.28 mln vs 4.80 mln; M/M change +12.3%
  • For-profit colleges – DJ is reporting that PE firms are “showing renewed interest” in the operators of for-profit colleges, although deal activity may not pick up until the regulatory curtains clear. Industry insiders say that PE firms are “inquiring” about a number of companies in recent months. DJ

    Dow Jones`i vahendusel võib lugeda, et private equity on hakanud taas huvi tundma tasulist haridust pakkuvate firmade kohta, mis seletab ka tänase EDU aktsiate tugevuse: COCO + 4,4%, APOL +3,04%, ESI 8,88%, STRA 1,38%, LOPE 2,54%, CPLA 2,41%
  • The Fed purchased $2.2 bln of 2028-2040 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $8.17 bln
  • Peab ütlema, et FFIV pakkus täna võimalusi küll. Enne avanemist kauples aktsia $109-$110 vahemikus ning kohe peale avanemist liikus aktsia kiirelt üles, käies ära isegi $114 tasemel. Põrget ei jätkunud küll kauaks ja aktsia on päeva jooksul müüdud uuesti eilse järelturu tasemeni ehk $108 kanti.



  • Calculated Risk toob välja, et kuigi olemasolevate majade müük kasvas detsembris 12.3%, valmistab jätkuvalt muret varude kasv. Sesoonsest efektist tingituna on varud madalamad detsembris ja jaanuaris. National Association of Realtors poolt avaldatav kuine varude maht kasutab sesoonselt korrigeeritud müüki, kuid sesoonselt korrigeerimata varusid. Seega viib sesoonsusest tingitud varude vähenemine detsembris ja jaanuaris ka kuise varude mahu madalamale. NRA andmetel vähenes majade varu võrreldes novembriga 4.2% ehk 3.56 miljoni majani, mis praeguse müügitempo juures tähendaks 8.1 kuu varu. Vaadates aga võrdlust eelmise aasta sama ajaga, siis tõusid varud detsembris 8.4%.
  • $13 bln 10-yr TIPS Auction Results: 1.170% (Expected 1.108%); Bid/Cover 2.37x; Indirect Bidders 37.9%
  • Täna munitsipaalvõlakirjade CDS lepinguid vaadates jäi silma hoopis USA 10-aastase võlakirja CDS (eurodes), mis täna ca viimase 2 aasta rekordi püstitas. Viimati oli CDS 70.7 punkti tasemel 2009. aasta märtsi keskel. Võrdluseks võib tuua, et siis kauples S&P 500 indeks ca 780 punkti tasemel.



  • Kui nüüd Vallo poolt öeldule omaltpoolt lisada, siis Morgan Stanley avaldas eile USA kinnisvarasektori kohta vägagi negatiivse raporti. Allpool kujutatud graafikul on kujutatud uute majade aastane ehitustempo 2000. aastast saati, mis on ületanud oluliselt 1.25 miljoni piiri, mida MSi analüütikud peavad nii-öelda jätkusuutlikuks (ehk kui kinnisvara ehitataks sellise tempoga, siis ei oleks turul varusid ega puudujääke). Nagu Vallo mainis, siis praeguse müügitempo juures on varu ca 8.1 jagu, mis MSi hinnangul püsib veel ca 2.5 aastaks.



  • Google prelim $8.75 vs $8.09 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $6.37 bln vs $6.06 bln Thomson Reuters consensus

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