Börsipäev 4. veebruar
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Tänase päeva fookus langeb USA tööturu raportile (kell 15.30), mille osas usub Briefingu konsensus, et jaanuaris loodi väljaspool põllumajandussektorit 148 000 töökohta, mis oleks mõnevõrra parem detsembrikuu 103 000-st. Viimasel ajal on palju räägitud ilmastiku võimalikust negatiivsest mõjust, seega numbri jäämisel alla ootuste võivad investorid juhinduda pigem viimase kuu tugevatest makroindikaatoritest. Oodatust suurem näitaja valmistaks seega suurema üllatuse. Ühtlasi hõlmab tänane raport iga-aastast benchmarki revideerimist, mistõttu võivad viimase aja numbrid erineda sellest, mida tegelikult välja kuulutati.
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Panen siia ka värske update'i USA väikeinvestorite sentimenti uuringust. Kui eelnevatel nädalatel võis täheldada karude osakaalu suurenemist siis möödunud nädalal kasvas taas nende investorite osakaal, kes usuvad aktsiahindade tõusu järgmise kuue kuu jooksul.
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Tulemuste tabelis on nüüd uus info jällegi sisestatud ning tabel ise nähtav siin.
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Karusema vaatega turuosalised on muutumas aina häälekamaks ja mida hoogsamalt teeb USA aktsiaturg uusi tippe, siis seda rohkem võib meedia vahendusel lugeda erinevaid versioone mustadest stsenaarumitest.
Oma nägemusega on väljas ka New York`s asuv hedge-fond Comstock, mis Business Insideri vahendusel annab teada, et nende arvates meenutab praegune turg aina enam 2000 ja 2007. aastat. Nende sõnul on turg on nii tehniliste kui ka fundamentaalsete näitajate põhjal liiga üles ostetud ning sentiment on sama bullish, kui see oli 2000 ja 2007. aasta eel.
Mainitakse ära mitmed juba mõnda aega arutluse all olevad ohumärgid ning lisaks sellele öeldakse, et Hiina on nende arvates tiksuv pomm ning täna on kõik Hiina suhtes sama positiivsed, kui oldi 80ndate lõpus Jaapani suhtes. -
Kanadas lisandus jaanuaris 69,2 tuhat uut töökohta, ületades seega tugevalt oodatud 15 tuhandet. Detsembrikuu tööhõive kasv korrigeeriti üles 30,4 tuhande peale. Töötusmäär tõusis samas 0,2 protsendipunkti võrra 7,8% peale.
Kanada dollar on tulemuste peale rallimas, olles USA dollari vastu tugevnenud 0,53% ja hetkel kaubeldakse 0,9856 tasemel. Jaanuari keskel tegi USD/CAD enam kui kahe ja poole aasta põhja 0,9836 tasemel. -
EURUSD on terve tänase päeva jooksul liikunud 25 punkti ulatuses. Hetkel 0,06% tõusus $1,3640 juures. Kell 15.30 avaldatav NFP tekitab ilmselt suuremat liikumist.
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Täna on Morgan Stanley analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Research In Motion (RIMM) kohta ja ühtlasi panevad RIMM-i ka oma Research Tactical Idea (RTI) nimekirja.
Morgan Stanley tõstab RIMM-i reitingu „müü“ pealt „hoia“ peale.
We are upgrading our rating to EW from UW, and raising our estimates to account for a) the stronger smartphone market growth, b) greater int’l B’berry unit volumes, and c) initial sell-in of the Playbook, which
even under modest estimates, could add $0.40-0.60 to our EPS estimate that already tops out near $7.
Eelkõige põhjendavad analüütikud oma reitingumuutust nutitelefonide turu tugevneva kasvuga, Blackberry oodatust paremate müüginumbritega ning Playbook`i müügiprognoosidega, mis isegi kõige konservatiivsemate ootuste kohaselt võiks EPS-le juurde lisada $0,40-$0,60.
Why not OW? The handset market is still a volatile, hit-driven market and RIM continues to lose share in NA while device operating margins, which we calculate are a heady 35%, remain relatively full vs the competition. With no guarantee of a hit phone in the pipeline, litte room for margin expansion, share likely continuing to decrease, the CDMA iPhone likely to materially impact Services revenue from the ~10M VZ subs in RIM’s base, no traction in China, and a smartphone market moving at the speed of light, we believe there remain too many balls in the air to declare RIM out of the woods.
One thing we do believe is clear is that presuming our working assumption is correct that RIM can successfully tap into the Android ecosystem with NO performance penalty, then the momentum of near term device sales and the death of the RIM-has-no-OS bear thesis should allow the stock to settle at a “steady-state” level above the 9x P/E multiple that it trades at today.
Lisaks sellele ütlevad analüütikud, et „osta“ soovitust ei anna nad sel põhjusel, et telefonide turg on väga volatiilne ja RIM kaotab Põhja-Ameerikas endiselt turgu. Kuna pole garantiid, et RIM tuleb välja mõne hitt-tootega, marginaalide parandamiseks on vähe ruumi, turuosa ilmselt jätkab langemist ning hetkel liigub nutitelefonide turg valguskiirusel, siis on õhus veel liiga palju ebakindlust RIM-i jaoks.
Samas on analüütikud veendunud, et kui firma võtab edukalt kasutusele Android OS-i, siis lähituleviku müük ning tõik, et firmat ei rõhu enam negatiivne tees OS-i puudumise pärast, peaks aktsial lubama kaubelda kõrgemal tasemel kui hetkel.
Lisaks eelnevale võtavad Morgan Stanley analüütikud ka RIMM-i RTI nimekirja:
We believe the share price will rise relative to the industry over the next 60 days.
This is because of raised forecasts/guidance. We expect RIM to report FQ4 results on March 24th above the Street (MS est $1.80 vs. Street $1.75) and guide above the Street for FQ1 (MS est $1.76 vs. Street $1.63), from a stronger smartphone market and after including Playbook in FQ1.
Analüütikud usuvad, et aktsia tõuseb järgmise 60 päeva jooksul ja avaldab märtsi lõpus konsensuse ootustest paremad tulemused.
Tegemist pole ostusoovitusega, aga silma jäi see call mulle analüütikud viite tõttu, et firma avaldab märtsis oodatust paremad tulemused. Kuid arvestada tuleks kindlasti sellega, et analüütikud tõstsid soovituse ainult „hoia“ peale.
Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $64 kandis ehk 2% plusspoolel. -
Turud oli valmis vahetult enne makrot rallima, hetkeks tehti allapoole spike, kuid nüüd tagasi 0,2% plusspoolel
January Unemployment Rate 9.0% vs 9.5% Briefing.com consensus; December 9.4%
January Nonfarm Payrolls 36K vs 148K Briefing.com consensus; December revised to 121K from 103K
January Nonfarm Private Payrolls 50K vs 163K Briefing.com consensus; December revised to 139K from 113K
January Average Workweek 34.2 vs 34.3 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.3K -
Siin on tabel möödunud aasta revideerimiste kohta.
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EURUSD imiteerimas eilset langust, olles praeguseks hetkeks kukkunud pärast töötururaporti avaldamist 0,31% ja kaubeldakse 1,3590 taseme juures.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:OPXT +28.1%, FEIC +18.6%, JDSU +18.1%, AVID +15.5% (light volume), AVNW +13.0%, SIMG +10.1%, MTSC +9.8% (light volume), AET +9.0%, OPXT +9.0%, PLNR +6.2%, SSL +4.9%, HLIT +4.7%, MFLX +4.4%, PHM +4.2%, NCR +1.9%, WY +1.8%
M&A news: SVLF +71.3% (acquired by an Affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management L.P. for $2.50)
European Banks trading higher on Tier 1 upgrade: DB +2.4%, CS +1.9%, ING +1.3%
Analyst Comments: PAET +2.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), RIMM +1.8% (hearing upgrade at Tier 1 firm), PTEN +1.1% (light volume -- stock was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup and Canaccord Genuity) -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PWER -20.4%, TRID -14.1%, EMKR -12.3%, CSTR -8.9%, CTCT -7.5%, LVS -5.9%, DLB -4.5%, FISV -3.7%, BIOD -3.1%, AEIS -1.2%
Select Solar names seeing some profit taking; FSLR (-0.7%) downgraded again today: SPWRA -2.6% LDK -2.1% JASO -1.4% SOLF -1.4%
Other news: DHT -8.5% (plans to offer ~8 mln shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), SATC -5.8% (still chiecking), TNK -5.4% (Teekay Tankers plans to offer 8.6 mln shares of Class A common stock of the Company in a public offering ), PSDV -4.8% (confirms its licensee Alimera Sciences (ALIM) reported results from the 36 month readout of completed Phase 3 FAME Study of ILUVIEN in patients with diabetic macular edema), MMLP -2.3% (commences an underwritten public offering of 1,630,000 common units), BAA -0.9% (announces C$56,875,000 private placement).
Analyst Comments: MGLN -2.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), BBVA -1.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), STD -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), FSLR -0.7% (downgraded to Hold at Kaufman Bros) -
The Upside Is the Right Side
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/4/2011 8:19 AM EST
Constant repetition carries conviction. -- Robert Collier
We're in a very familiar spot: A few stabs at the downside have been quickly shaken off and the market continues to run as if it doesn't have a worry in the world. The bears continue to look foolish as they keep fighting the same battle over and over.
There is really only one thing you need to know about this market: The trend is up, and it doesn't pay to try to guess when it might end. When we go up this long with this much consistently you can't help but try to guess when it might end. There is nothing wrong with guessing -- in fact, it is probably a healthy exercise in order to avoid complacency -- but you sure shouldn't be putting money on the line in hope that a reversal will suddenly hit.
There is only way to navigate this market, and that is to trade on the long side. The degree of your bullishness is what you need to focus on. The folks who have fully embraced this market and harbored no doubts have done the best. Of course, they are most likely to be the ones who will be killed when we finally have a major reversal, but they have been racking up gains for so long they will be able to afford a pretty good hit at some point.
Many market players don't really buy the bullish story, but they are pragmatic and aren't going to try to fight it. They go with the flow and stay with the long side even though they have a low level of trust and don't really believe the bullish arguments in support of this market. Nothing can be more costly than to stick with a conviction when the market isn't paying any attention.
We have jobs numbers coming up shortly that will help to set the tone, but I suspect that the dip-buyers would love the chance to buy a pullback on weak numbers. The bigger danger is a reversal following a gap up on good numbers, but intraday reversals to the downside are pretty rare these days.
If you want to worry about something, then they level of complacency is probably a good concern to have. Even the bears no longer seem to believe this market can go down.
We have some slightly positive action to start the day and the jobs numbers coming up. We'll see how things look once the numbers are digested.
Waiting for a Reaction
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/4/2011 8:53 AM EST
We have a very interesting jobs report this morning. The number of new jobs was quite disappointing with only an increase of 36,000 vs. estimates of over three times that much, but the household unemployment rate fell from 9.4% to 9%. The headline number is going to see a lot of media play even though it is highly misleading.
The household survey only counts people as unemployed if they are actively looking for work. If they call you up and ask if you are looking for work and you say no, then the unemployment rate just went down even if you just have given up.
It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out as the headline about the drop of unemployment is going to receive a lot of play, even though it is extremely misleading.
Fasten your seat belts. It is going to be a bumpy ride. -
USA töötus haridustaseme järgi.
Nagu näha, siis haridus on loeb... -
The Fed purchased $7.27 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $28.81 bln
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Vaatamata sellele, et RIMM-i call polnud täna väga tugev, reageeris aktsia sellele üllatavalt hästi. RIMM avanes $64,25 kandis ehk 2,5% plusspoolel ning liikus peale avanemist hetkeks ka $64,80 peale. See oli ka päeva tipuks, sest käesolevaks hetkeks on aktsia tulnud tagasi avanemishinna juurde, olles vahepeal käinud ära ka $64 all.
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USA väärtpaberijärelvalve ehk SEC-i esindaja sõnul laekub neile peale möödunud aastal vastu võetud nn Wall Street`i seadust märksa rohkem infot whistleblower`lt ehk inimestelt, kel on otsest teavet aset leidnud finantsskeemi - või pettuse kohta. Informaatoriteks võivad olla inimesed, kes töötavad ise selles ettevõttes, konkurendid ja mõnikord ka maha jäetud abikaasad.
Reuters kirjutab, et whistlerblower`te info põhjal algatatud juurdlustest saadud trahvid moodustavad 30% sellest, mis SEC kokku on erinevatelt institustioonidelt või isikutelt välja nõudnud.
