Börsipäev 13. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänases makrokalendris on tähelepanu all USA märtsikuu jaemüük (kell 15.30), mis konsensuse arvates võis näidata veebruariga võrreldes 0,5%-list kasvu. Jättes välja nõrgemapoolseks jäänud automüügi, peaks jaemüük sellisel juhul kasvama 0,7%. Kell 17.00 avalikustatakse USA ettevõtete veebruari varude muutus ning kell 21.00 Föderaalreservi Beige Book. Enne USA turgude avanemist raporteerib oma esimese kvartali majandusnäitajad JPMorgan. Arvestades hiljutisi EPS-i kärpimisi laineid, saab JPM oma numbritega olema finantssektoris üsna oluliseks meeleolu kujundajaks.
Euroopa sessioonil võiks mõningast huvi pakkuda Suurbritannia veebruari ja märtsi tööturustatistika (kell 11.30) ja pool tundi hiljem eurotsooni veebruari tööstustoodangu muutus (kell 12.00).
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,3% plusspoolel. -
Täna enne turu avanemist peaks oma esimese kvartali tulemused avaldama USA suuruselt teine pank JPMorgan (JPM). Tänane Reuters kirjutab, et ettevõttelt oodatakse väga head kvartalit ning ootused on suured eriti krediitkaardi üksuse osas. Konsensus ootab panga EPS-ks $ 1,16 aktsia kohta võrreldes möödunud aasta $ 0,74 suuruse kasumiga.
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Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et USA raudteetööstus, mis majanduskriisi ajal vähendas käigusolevate vagunite arvu sadade tuhandete võrra ning koondas töölisi, ei suuda majanduse taastumise tingimustes suurenenud nõudlust rahuldada. Eelkõige valmistab see peavalu USA autotööstusele, kes peavad tuhandeid valmis autosid oma tehaste juurde parkima. Kaubavagunite puudus on lisanud autode jõudmiseks edasimüüjatele paar päeva kuni paar nädalat. Raudteeoperaator CSX Corp. (CSX) ütles, et alates majanduse taastumisest on ettevõte taas kasutusele võtnud varasemalt kasutusest väljajäänud vaguneid, et rahuldada autotööstuse nõudlust. Samas aga mõjutas raudteefirmade esimese kvartali tegevust negatiivselt halb ilm, mistõttu ei suudetud piisavalt kiiresti reageerida autovagunite 11.4%-lisele nõudluse tõusule. (link)
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Kansas City Fedi president Thomas Hoenig tõi eilses usutluses välja, et USA suurpangad nagu Bank of America Corp ja Citigroupi peaks ümber klassifitseerima kui valitsuse poolt sponsoreeritud ettevõtted ja piirama nende tegevust (sarnaselt Fannie Mae ja Freddie Maciga).
The 2008 bank bailouts at the height of the financial crisis and other implicit guarantees effectively make the largest U.S. banks government-guaranteed enterprises, like mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig.
"That's what they are," Hoenig said at the National Association of Attorneys General 2011 conference. -
Suurbritannia Claimant töötusmäär tuli vastavalt ootustele 4,5%, kuid ILO töötusmäär langes 7,8% peale, kuigi oodati, et jääb püsima 8% juurde. Töötuabirahade taotluste arv kasvas märtsis 700 inimese võrra, kuigi oodati vähenemist 3 tuhande võrra. GBPUSD kaupleb avanemistaseme 1,6266 juures.
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Siin on pikem lugu eelmisel nädalal USAs poleemikat tekitanud eelarvekärpe tagamaadest ja raamatupidamislikest nippidest, millega USA kongress suutis vahetult enne USA valitsuse "shutdowni" jõuda kokkuleppele eelarve vähendamisest "rekordilise" 38 miljardi USDi võrra (mis on samas pelgalt murdosa käesoleva fiskaalaasta prognoositavast puudujäägist). Mõned väljavõtted:
The historic $38 billion in budget cuts resulting from at-times hostile bargaining between Congress and the Obama White House were accomplished in large part by pruning money left over from previous years, using accounting sleight of hand and going after programs President Barack Obama had targeted anyway.
The details of the agreement reached late Friday night just ahead of a deadline for a partial government shutdown reveal a lot of one-time savings and cuts that officially "score" as cuts to pay for spending elsewhere, but often have little to no actual impact on the deficit.
As a result of the legerdemain, Obama was able to reverse many of the cuts passed by House Republicans in February when the chamber approved a bill slashing this year's budget by more than $60 billion. In doing so, the White House protected favorites like the Head Start early learning program, while maintaining the maximum Pell grant of $5,550 and funding for Obama's "Race to the Top" initiative that provides grants to better-performing schools.
Instead, the cuts that actually will make it into law are far tamer, including cuts to earmarks, unspent census money, leftover federal construction funding, and $2.5 billion from the most recent renewal of highway programs that can't be spent because of restrictions set by other legislation. Another $3.5 billion comes from unused spending authority from a program providing health care to children of lower-income families. -
Eurotsooni tööstustoodang kasvas veebruaris 0,4% vs oodatud 0,8% (M/M) ja 7,3% vs oodatud 8,0% (Y/Y). Euro on oma tänasest tipust $1,4518 tasemelt taandunud, kaubeldes hetkel $1,4493 juures.
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Bloomberg on välja toonud, kuidas USA aktsiad ja võlakirjad on käitunud kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise ajal:
Mis juhtub, kui QE2 lõppeb?
Esiteks võib likviidsuse kokkutõmbamine vähedada huvi riskantsemate varaklasside vastu ja nagu Bloomberg oma loos kirjutab: "Once QEII expires, the equity market might pull back. Where do people go? Into the perceived safety of Treasuries." (link)
Samas sõltub ostuhuvi alati hinnatasemest. Bloombergi graafikult on näha, et võlakirjade tulusus on QE2 ajal tõusma hakanud, kuigi Fedi eesmärk oli midagi muud. Ilmselt on kõrgema tulususe taga kasvavad inflatsiooniootused, mis vähendavad huvi paariprotsendilise tulususega pikaajaliste võlakirjade vastu. Kuna QE2 ajal on Fedist saanud suurim USA valitsuse pikaajaliste võlakirjade ostja, siis saab olema huvitav vaadata, milliseks kujuneb võlakirjade ostuhuvi pärast QE lõppemist. -
Eile õhtul oli juttu Tyco (TYC)-i võimalikust ülevõtust Prantusmaa firma Schneider Electricu poolt, mis kergitas TYC aktsiahinna päeva teises pooles üle 8% kõrgemale. Täna võib New York Times vahendusel lugeda, et Schneider Electric ei kinnita seda ja ei plaani TYC üle võtta.
TYC aktsia kaupleb eelturul 4,5% miinuspoolel ($ 49,98) -
Into the perceived safety of Treasuries. - seletage mulle ära, misasi see on? Ma ei näe küll hetkel kuskilt, et praeguste yield'ide pealt keegi leiaks, et UST on hea mõte... rääkimata sellest, kui juhtud veel europõhine investor olema ;)
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Mulle samuti selline vaatenurk arusaamatu.
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Ehk siis ma peaksin arvama, et perceivedly safe on selline investeering, mis kannab alljärgnevaid omadusi...
- emitent on tegelenud küsitava väärtusega majanduspoliitikaga;
- emitendi finantsid on väga nihu (võlakoormus ületab ohohohhoo ja eheheheheee juba) ;
- emitendil on kiusatus tegeleda veel küsitava väärtusega majanduspoliitikaga (currency debasing, neg. real rates etc);
- tootlus on ajaloolises kontekstis väga madal;
- tõusutrend on kestnud aastakümneid;
- valuutarisk.
Unustage palun ära, eks! :-D -
Veel lisaks, et hiljuti on Fed ostnud ca 70% USA valitsuse võlakirjadest.
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Ega seda ei saa neile pahaks panna. Aktsiate tagasiostuga on paremad emitendid ikka tegelenud. Asi see siis ei ole vastselt emiteeritud võlga kohe tagasi osta. Enne kui see vahepeal tarbetult mõne investori portfelli läheb. Siis tee pärast hulk aega QEd enne kui jälle kõik maailma turvalisemad paberid uuesti enda kätte saad.
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LOL, Cynic ;)
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JPM tulemustega väljas; EPS konsensuse prognoosist parem, aga käive üsna ootustele vastav. Firma teatab ka aktsiate tagasiostust ning tõstab dividendimakset $ 0,25-ni.
JPM Reports Q1 $1.28 v $1.16e, R$25.8B v $25.3Be; to buy back $15B in shares; hikes dividend to $0.25.
Aktsia kaupleb eelturul oma eilse sulgumishinna kandis ehk 0,1% plusspoolel ($ 46,69) -
Jefferies alustab täna Baidu (BIDU) ja Sina (SINA) katmist Osta soovitusega.
Jefferies soovitab nii BIDU kui ka SINA osta vastavalt $ 200 ja $ 150 hinnasihiga.
Growth will be sustained given still-low Internet and e-commerce penetration. We expect search advertising revenue share of total online advertising in China will continue to increase driven by the nascent opportunity from mobile search, and SME search marketing as more Chinese SMEs conduct business online, and the Chinese economy depends more on domestic consumption than on export. We estimate revenues to grow at 73% and 65%, and earnings to grow 76% and 64% for 2011-12E, respectively.
Analüütikute sõnul on BIDU kasv jätkusuutlik eelkõige siiani suhteliselt madala internetikasutusmääraga Hiinas. Samuti on kasvujärgus internetis reklaamimine, mida toetab ka uus mobiilne infootsingu võimalus. Analüütikud prognoosivad 2011. aastaks käibekasvu 73% ja kasumikasvuks 76% ning 2012. aastaks vastavalt 65% ja 64%.
Search market has a very high entry barrier and limited competition. As the number one search engine with very high brand recognition in China, BIDU has thousands of service personnel and R&D engineers dedicated to Internet search in China, making it very difficult for competitors to achieve critical mass or match its quality of user experience. Industry checks indicate that Google’s exit from China in 2009 has and continues to benefit BIDU in China’s search market.
Otsinguteenuse turg on analüütikute sõnul väga kõrge sisenemisbarjääriga ning hõreda konkurentsiga. BIDU on Hiinas väga tuntud ning populaarne kaubamärk ning alates Google`i lahkumisest 2009. aastal Hiina turult on see BIDU siiani soosinud ning soosib ka edaspidi.
Social media platform Weibo leads competitors by user scale and stickiness. As a first mover in microblog, Sina Weibo has developed 100mn+ active users, 80K of whom are among China’s most well-known celebrities. SINA is far ahead of the competition by effective browsing time, average page views per user a day, and daily unique visito
Sotsiaalmeedia platvorm Weibo on kogunud juba üle 100 miljoni aktiivse kasutaja ja neist 80 tuhat on Hiinas väga tuntud inimesed. SINA on oma konkurentidest ees nii keskmise vaadatavuse osas ( veebilehe külastus ühe kasutaja kohta päevas) ja ka registreerimata kasutaja külastatavuse osas.
The “cream of the crop” of China’s consumers are Sina’s typical users. Although Weibo’s monetization is at least 18 months away, investments on the Weibo platform will be the key for future monetization from social advertisers. Our analysis shows Sina’s user base captures consumer segments with the highest propensity to spend both online and off line in China. We expect Weibo’s influence is only going to expand as both Internet penetration and consumption power grows, driven by China’s urbanization initiatives.
Kirsiks tordi peal on analüütikute arvates asjaolu, et Hiina tarbijad on Sina tüüpilised kasutajad. Vaatamata sellele, et Weibo tasuliseks muutmiseni on veel 18 kuud aega, siis analüütikute sõnul on Weibo platvormi investeerimine võti tulevikus reklaamraha saamiseks. Analüütikud prognoosivad, et Sina kasutajabaas meelitab ligi just sellised tarbijad, kes kulutavad meelsasti nii internetis kui ka väljaspool.
Jefferies`i argumentides pole iseenesest midagi uut, aga see ei olegi nii oluline, kui meil on tegemist selliste aktsiatega nagu BIDU ja SINA. Mõlemad on väga head liikujad ja ka uued hinnasihid tähistavad street high`i. Ainukesena häirib mind selle call´i juures , et see pole reitingumuutus, mis võib võtta call`i võimu vähemaks ning teeb turust rohkem sõltuvaks. -
March Retail Sales +0.4% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +1.1% from +1.0%
March Retail Sales ex-auto +0.8% vs +0.7% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +1.1% from +0.7% -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RVBD +14.4% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity, upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Capstone), ADTN +5.8%.
M&A news: GRM +16.5% and SLGN +5.5% (Graham Packaging to be acquired by Silgan Holdings for 0.402 shares of Silgan common stock and $4.75 in cash for each GRM share, implying value of $19.56 using yesterday's closing price), BJ +1% (ticking higher on light volume following continued M&A speculation).
RVBD and ADTN peers lifting following the cos' earnings/guidance: APKT +4.9%, JNPR +3.8%, FFIV +3.4%, RDWR +2.3%, BCSI +2.1%, CIEN +1.4%,
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +2.3%, SLW +1.5%, MT +1.4%, AA +1.2%, SLV +1%, RIO +0.9% (reported production data), BBL +0.8%, BHP +0.7%, GLD +0.5%.
Select rare earth names also seeing early strength: REE 2.9%, MCP 2.3%, SHZ 1.7%
Other news: ZOOM +27.4% (Qualcomm and Zoom entered into a subscriber unit license agreement), PSTI +8.5% (announces encouraging six-month follow-up results of its phase I critical limb ischemia clinical trials), IRBT +4.9% (receives $230.1 mln contract for the procurement of man transportable system, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman), MNKD +4.1% (end-of-review meeting with FDA rescheduled), KKR +3.5% (still checking), MGM +3.1% (enters into agreements governing proposed IPO of Macau Joint Venture and related convertible bond transaction), ALU +2.8% (traded higher overseas following Morgan Stanley upgrade), DB +2.3% (reports out overnight that the co is planning to restructure its N Am operations), ALV +2.2% (expands in China Extends its assembly plant in Southern China), NOK +1.9% (still checking for anything specific), SI +1.6% (traded higher overseas).
Analyst comments: CLF +1.8% (initiated with a Buy at BB&T), BIDU +1.6% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), SINA +0.6% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HCSG -9.8%.
M&A news: TYC -2.4% (modestly pulling back from second day of gains on M&A rumors; reports out that Schneider denied in talks with the company).
Other news: MSB -8.4% (lower after declaring distribution and update), BSPM -8.2% (announces appointment of new CFO; appoints audit committee Chairman and independent director to the Board of Directors), INVE -3% (modestly pulling back).
Analyst comments: AAP -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), SUN -1.4% (downgraded to Sell at The Benchmark Company), ORLY -1.3% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan). -
Remain Open-Minded and Flexible
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/13/2011 8:52 AM EDT
Life is not about how fast you run, or how high you climb, but how well you bounce.
-- James Koford
The market has been under pressure the last two weeks with the selling accelerating the last few days. We have seen consistently poor intraday action for a while and some ugly technical breakdowns yesterday, particularly among the more thinly traded issues. Apple (AAPL) and a number of other key leadership stocks have been struggling and the dip-buyers have not been showing much interest.
Despite the negatives, the selling pressure has been intense enough for long enough to create oversold conditions that are helping to produce a bounce today. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat expectations and that is helping. After a sharp drop over the last couple days, crude oil is also stable and that is helping to boost the commodity sector.
The market is now in the classic situation now of having suffered some technical damage but it's oversold enough for some sort of relief bounce. This marks a point in the market that has been quite tricky over the last two years. It makes sense to expect some sort of relief rally, but once the market starts to bounce, investors seem to forget all those negatives that mattered so much. So the market just keeps on running higher.
Logically, we should be looking for a failed bounce to develop at this point. Some upside for a couple days would relieve the oversold conditions and provide exit points for trapped bulls and entry points for aggressive bears. However, in this market that sort of thinking has been a recipe for trouble.
Anticipating a failed oversold bounce has been a nearly impossible trade and we have to wonder if this time it is going to be different. One added complexity is that earnings season is kicking off and that is going to determine the market mood. The first report of the season, Alcoa (AA) , was very disappointing but Google's (GOOG) report on Thursday evening will provide a better test.
President Obama's speech this afternoon in which he plans to set forth his budget plan could be another market moving event today. It will receive much attention but it is unlikely to have lasting market impact. The battle lines are already well drawn with the Democrats pushing for higher taxes and more spending while the Republicans insist we need to focus on making budget cuts. The market needs some fiscal discipline to keep inflation from building so any austerity measures will likely be seen as a net positive, although it is obvious the political battle will continue unabated.
At this juncture, the best trading opportunities are going to be some short-term bounces. The challenge will be to determine how far we can trust them. We will need to keep time frames short, stops tight and not be too trusting of an immediately recovery. It can be a good environment for opportunistic trading but quick reversals are a real danger.
It is a good time to stay open-minded and flexible. The action over the past couple weeks has been negative and there are strong indications it could continue. But the market is due for a respite so we might as well try to capitalize on it while we can. -
February Business Inventories +0.5% vs +0.8% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +1.0% from +0.9%
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Nagu arvata oligi, siis BIDU ja SINA-le sobib igasuguse kvaliteediga kütus. SINA avanes $114,77 pealt (+3%) ja peale esimest põrget $ 116 alla tuli aktsia korraks $ 115 tasemele tagasi ning on sealt alates aina ülespoole tiksunud. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $117 kandis, 5,1% plusspoolel.
BIDU avanes $143,34 pealt (+1,9%), kuid aktsial võttis liikuma saamine natuke pikemalt aega kui SINA-l. BIDU põrkas peale avanemist $144 peale ning tuli seejärel avanemistasemeni tagasi. Sealt on aktsia ülespoole liikunud ja kaupleb hetkel $ 144,80 kandis, 3% plusspoolel. -
RBC prognoosib täna, et toornafta hinna nii-öelda „pullback“ ei möödu niipea ehk teisisõnu järgneva paari kuu vältel peaks hind pigem langema. Strateegide prognoosi demonstreerib allolev graafik, millel on kujutatud turul spekuleerijate neto lepingute arv (non-commercial traders) ning toornafta hind. RBC hinnangul langeb toornafta hind paari nädala jooksul ca $100le dollarile barreli kohta, kuna spekulatiivne nõudlus on turul eeldatavasti langemas. Strateegide sõnul hakkaks toornafta hinnalangus negatiivset mõju avaldama energiaettevõtete aktiatele siis, kui hind langeks ca $90 tasemele.
