Börsipäev 24. mai
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Eskaleeruv mure Kreeka pärast, Hispaania valimistulemused, Itaalia riigivõlaväljavaate alandamine ning tagatipuks veel aeglustuvale majanduskasvule viitavad PMI indeksid euroalas ja Hiinas tõid eile korraliku müügisurve nii Euroopas, kus Stoxx600 kaotas -1,7% ja USA-s, kus S&P500 indeks taandus 1,2%. Aasia turud on näidanud marginaalset sentimendi paranemist, välja arvatud Hiinas, kus Shanghai Composite kaupleb 0,5% punases. USA futuurid liiguvad hetkel 0,1% kõrgemal ja Euroopa futuurid indikeerivad avanemist nulli lähedal.
Suurema huviga jälgitakse täna Saksamaa ärikliimat kajastavaid IFO indekseid, mille puhul oodatakse nõrgenemist just ootuste osas (kell 11.00). Kell 12.00 raporteeritakse euroala märtsi uued tööstustellimused. USA sessiooni ajal on aga fookuses aprilli uute majade müük ning Richmond Fedi töötleva tööstuse maikuu indeks. -
Reports surfacing 14 UK financial banks to be reviewed by Moody's for possible downgrade; confirming early speculation
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ZH on ära toonud Bloomberg TV intervjuu Ronald Reagani administratsiooni eelarvejuhi David Stockmaniga, kes on üks vähestest endistest ametnikest, kes räägib keerutamata ja ausalt USA fiskaalolukorrast.
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Hiljuti hea ajastusega toorainesektori korrektsiooni eest hoiatanud Golman Sachs on taas sektori suhtes positiivseks muutunud. GS tõstab nt märgatavalt nii selle kui järgmise aasta nafta hinna prognoose, kuna Lähis-Ida kriisil nähakse pikaajalist mõju nafta pakkumisele (hetkel on tagasilöök tulnud eelkõige Liibüast):
In our view, it is only a matter of time until inventories and OPEC spare capacity will become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supplies.
Ka meie hinnangul on nafta hinna hiljutine korrektsioon mitmed energiasektori aktsiad investeerimiseks taas huvitavatele hinnatasemetele toonud. Eelmisel nädalal sai põgusalt kirjutatud ebatraditsioonilisest naftaettevõttest Suncor Enegry (SU), mis võib kõrgema nafta hinna korral pakkuda huvitavat investeerimisvõimalust energiasektorisse (link loole siin). -
Saksamaa praegust ärikliimat kajastav IFO indeks oli mais 121,4 punkti ehk veidi parem võrreldes oodatud 120,7-ga. Samuti on eurole ja turgudele pisut tuge pakkumas ootuste indeks, mis oli 107,4 punkti - veidi kõrgem võrreldes prognoositud 107,0 punktiga.
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Eilne uudis küll, aga.
VRTX: FDA approved Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Incivek™ (telaprevir) tablets for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 in patients with compensated liver disease.
Shares short 4,2% float, 3.2 ratio
Et 12 kuu tipp 58,87 on üsna lähedal, võib täna üle 60 minna.
Aga võib ka mitte, sest nagu ikka biotehhide puhul, on riskid suured.
Needham: Needham notes that VRTX announced this morning that Incivek has been approved by the FDA for the treatment of HCV. Firm says that given superior performance relative to Merck's (MRK) Victrelis in Phase 3 trials (and despite higher pricing), they expect Incivek to outperform in the market. However, firm believes investor expectations for a strong launch are already in the stock and that news flow from other companies with potentially better compounds may distract investors. They believe opportunities for growth may be limited as competing HCV agents reach the market ~2014+ -
Tänasest peaks saama lühikeseks müüa LinkedIn (LNKD) aktsiat.
Financial Times kirjutab, et alates tänasest võimaldatakse LNKD aktsiat ka lühikeseks müüa, aga sellegi poolest osutub see ilmselt väga keeruliseks, kuna börsil vabalt kaubeldavate aktsiate kogus on ainult 9 miljonit. Lisaks eelnevale on alates aktsia IPO päevast sisuliselt igas kanalis rõhutatud, et LNKD näol on tegemist ühe suure mulliga ehk võib ainult ette kujutada, kui suur hulk turuosalisi üritab aktsiat nüüd lühikeseks müüma hakata. -
Morgan Stanley on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Salesforce.com (CRM) kohta.
Morgan Stanley tõstab CRM reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $200 hinnasihiga.
We are upgrading CRM to Overweight with a $200 target. Our upgrade is in conjunction with the publishing of the Cloud Computing Takes Off Blue Paper, which presents field data forecasting growth in cloud-based workloads at a CAGR of 50% for the next three years, much stronger than the ~20% growth re- flected in consensus CRM ests. Through our field work, we believe CRM has the broadest ability to participate in this move which is accelerating, and we are raising our forward billings growth to 25%+ for FY13/FY14 as a result—which could still prove low. CRM’s valuation reflects some of the good news, but the stock has un-derperformed since Nov. on concerns about sustainable growth. We think CRM can work to our $200 PT as a) investors get more comfortable with 25%+ sustainable billings growth and b) the new offerings and recently added sales people begin to contribute.
Analüütikud on muutunud aktsia suhtes positiivseks, kuna nad näevad jõudsat kasvu kogu pilvetehnoloogia sektoris. Analüütikute sõnul on CRM-l kõige paremad eeldused sellest kasvust osa saada ja kuigi CRM aktsiahind võib juba osaliselt ka häid uudiseid sisaldada, siis prognoosivad analüütikud, et aktsia võib tõusta $ 200 tasemeni, kuna investorite kindlus kasvu osas kinnistub ja hiljuti lisatud uued pakkumised ning lisatööjõud hakkavad samuti tulemusi andma.
CRM is turning up the volume… In the last 18 months, CRM has more than doubled its product portfolio and substantially increased its opps. in areas like mobile, social, analytics and cloud infrastructure. At the same time, CRM has grown its sales capacity by over 40%, and this capacity did not contribute materially to +33% constant currency organic growth in Q1—which suggests an incremental tailwind to growth in 2H12.
Viimase 18 kuu jooksul on CRM rohkem kui kahekordistanud oma tooteportfelli ja pidevalt laiendanud võimalusi nii mobiili, sotsiaalse, analüütilise ja pilve infrastruktuuris. Samal ajal on CRM oma müügivõimet kasvatanud üle 40% ja esimest kvartalit antud võimsus oluliselt ei mõjutanud ja see võib viidata kasvu lisatoetusele 2012. aasta teises pooles.
Morgan Stanley`lt väga positiivne call täna nii CRM kui ka kogu pilvetehnoloogia segmendi kohta. CRM näol on tegemist väga liikuva aktsiaga ehk tähelepanu leiab see upgrade täna kindlasti, aga ettevaatust, kuna aktsia on tulemustejärgselt teinud läbi ka kiire tõusu. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOLR +12.7%, HSFT +6.5% (ticking higher), CISG +5.4%, PWRD +5.1%, AZO +3.0%, EP +1.4% (ticking higher).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLV +2.1%, BBL +1.8%, RIO +1.6%, BHP +1.6%, SLW +1.4%, GLD +0.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: STO +2.5%, SD +1.8%, E +1.3%, RDS.A +0.9%.
Other news: SIFY +12.9% (Sify Technologies and Deutsche Telekom sign partnership to deliver IP and virtual private network services globally), SNE +4.8% (still checking for anything specific), NTWK +3.6% (signed an agreement worth over $2 mln to implement its entire NetSol Financial Suite solution), CREE +3.2% (hearing strength attributed to analyst comments about possible GE contract), SCOK +2.6% (obtains new business licenses for three coal mine companies in Baofeng County), SI +1.3% (still checking).
Analyst comments: TIVO +2.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard), NABI +2.3% (initiated with an Outperform at Leerink), CRM +2.2% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), CRZO +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MDT -2.9%, VRGY -1.1% (light volume).
Other news: FRO -7.2% (under pressure in early trade following exec comments, according to reports), INVE -4.8% (announced it is offering to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), XL -1.5% (announces departure of CFO), BLK -1.3% (weakness attributed to pricing of block trade), CCL -0.7% (continued weakness).
Analyst comments: IM -3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), AMB -1.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Gleacher), HPQ -0.6% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade). -
Täna on mitu analüüsimaja alustanud Box Ships Inc. katmist:
Box Ships initiated with Buy at UBS; tgt $12.50
Box Ships initiated with a Buy at Lazard; tgt $13
Samuti on mitmed analüüsimajad alustanud TMS Internationali katmist:
TMS International initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $18.50
RBC Capital Mkts initiated TMS with a Outperform and price target of $16
KeyBanc Capital initiated with Buy and tgt $17
JPMorgan initiated overweight and tgt $17
Lisaks veel üks huvitav targeti tõstmine:
Pharmasset (VRUS): Hearing tgt raised to $200 from $100 at JPMorgan -
Set Your Time Frames Now
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/24/2011 8:43 AM EDT
"Life is all about timing ... the unreachable becomes reachable, the unavailable become available, the unattainable ... attainable. Have the patience, wait it out. It's all about timing."
--Stacey Charter
The market is under pressure and has been slowly falling into a downtrend over the past three weeks. Monday, the major indices broke through key support levels and showed little life. It was poor action, suggesting more to come.
This sort of action demands a defensive posture, but the most important thing to do right now is to be very clear about holding periods. The easiest way to get in trouble in a downtrending market is to let bad trades turn into investments and to let bad investments grow too big.
What makes a downtrend so challenging is that there are always relief bounces and countertrend moves that provide good trading opportunities. Even if we are in the early stages of a protracted correction, it isn't going to happen in a straight line. We are going to have significant oversold bounces and some pretty good rallies.
Some of the biggest and sharpest upside moves occur within downtrends. That is because market players are not prepared for them. The shorts will cover and underinvested longs will dive in and that creates some fast moves. The pain of a downtrend occurs when these sharp bounces fail and the over-anxious bottom callers, who want to believe the worst is over, find themselves trapped as the momentum fizzles out again.
The way to deal with this is to be very clear about your time frames. Don't expect oversold bounces within a downtrend to last for very long. Take some profits when you have them and keep stops tight. If the market keeps going straight up -- like it has often done over the past two years -- then you will have to work hard to add some new positions, but it is far more important that you respect the overall trend than bet that it is suddenly coming to an end.
If you are a longer-term investor, the biggest mistake during a downtrend is to average in too big and too fast. The methodology of many traditional Wall Street players is to identify a stock they like and then steadily add to it on weakness. That works well when the market recovers and the stock regains its luster, but if a protracted correction takes place or if your favorite stock turns out to have some unforeseen flaws, then the damage that is done by averaging into a downtrend can be brutal.
My preference is to buy stocks when they are trending up rather than add to them when they are trending down. Buying during a downtrend can be appealing because of the hope that you are going to be at the absolute low at the absolute best time. Buying low and selling high is what we are taught to do, but it's much harder than it sounds.
You are much less likely to tie up money in a poorly acting stock if you focus on buying only when there is an uptrend. You won't be buying at the exact low, but you will seldom do that anyway and you are likely to use your capital more efficiently if you aggressively buy strength.
After the poor action yesterday, we have a bit of an oversold bounce kicking in this morning. Be very clear about your time frames and don't start thinking that a bottom has been formed already. We have suffered some significant technical breakdowns and the market has some work to do in order to return to health. -
USA kinnisvarasektorist oodatust natuke paremaid uudiseid:
April New Home Sales 323K vs 300K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 301K from 300K -
Yandex N.V. opens for trading at $35, after pricing IPO at $25
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The Fed purchased $6.40 bln of 2013-2015 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $35.60 bln
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CRM täna ühtset joont pole eriti hoidnud ja alates avanemisest on liikunud $ 148-149,50 vahemikus. Aktsia avanes $ 147,79 pealt ning tegi peale avanemist ilusa põrke üles $ 149,80 kanti. Sealt tasemelt on aktsia alla avanemistasemete juurde tulnud päeva jooksul veel mitu korda. Hetkel kaupleb CRM $ 149,00 kandis, 2,6% plusspoolel.
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Kas keegi oskab öelda midagi Yandexi kohta, lugedes mõningaid arvamusi ja analüüs, siis jääb mulje kui heast firmast ning ka juhid on väga positiivselt meelestatud ja valmis arenema.
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$35 bln 2-yr Note Auction Results: 0.560%; Bid/Cover 3.47x (Prior 3.06x, 10-auction avg 3.38x); Indirect Bidders 31.3% (Prior 37.9%, 10-auction avg 33.1%)
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Kuna Yandex (YNDX) alles alustas börsil kauplemist, siis väga põhjalikku infot pole selle firma kohta suutnud veel leida, kuigi pean ütlema,et mullegi tundub see ettevõte huvitav.
Siin on Yandexist natuke kirjutatud.
