Börsipäev 25. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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USA indeksite futuurid on nädalat alustanud ligi protsendise kukkumisega ja Euroopa omad viitavad samuti negatiivsele päeva algusele, kui läbirääkimised USA eelarvedefitsiidi vähendamise ja võlalimiidi tõstmise osas lõppesid nädalavahetusel tulemusteta. Esindajatekoja spiiker Boehner on erinevates meediaväljaannetes öelnud, et kuna 2. august on nõnda lähedale jõudnud, siis on võimalik vaid kaheetapiline kokkulepe, mis hõlmaks limiidi ajutist tõstmist ja hilisemat uut hääletust siis juba koos konkreetse eelarve defitsiidi vähendamise kavaga. President Obama on vastu igasugustele plaanidele, mis ei võimalda laenulimiiti tõsta piisavalt, et 2012. aasta lõpuni laenuvajadusi katta.
Kuna täna olulist makrot oodata pole (mingil määral võib tähelepanu pälvida Dallas Fedi küsitlus kell 17.30), püsib turuosaliste tähelepanu vabariiklaste ja demokraatide vahelistel läbirääkimistel. Täie hooga jätkub ka tulemustehooaeg, kui pärast turgu raporteerivad muuhulgas Anadarko Petroleum, Netflix ja Texas Instruments. -
Kui lüüa tulemuste tabel reedese seisuga lukku, siis raporteeritud numbrid oleksid üsna silmapaistvad. Bespoke'i kohaselt on 345-st USA ettevõttest 70% löönud EPSi ootust ja 71% ületanud müügitulu prognoose, mis pole aastaid nii kõrge olnud. Aga raporteerimine jätkub ja tõenäoliselt tulevad need näitajad mõnevõrra allapoole. Veidi nigelam on aga väljavaate pool, kui 5.8% ettevõtetest on tõstnud oma prognoose ja 6,1% langetanud, mis muuudab suhte negatiivseks. Aga siingi tuleb nentida, et suurem osa ettevõtetest pole jõudnud veel oma numbreid avaldada ning seetõttu võib pilt muutuda
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USA võlalimiidi debatt on tõepoolest kujunenud huvitavaks. Nagu Erko eelpool mainis, siis ilmselt „Gang of Six“ poolt tehtud ettepanek tõsta võlalimiiti ja samaaegselt kinnitada $3.7 triljoni väärtuses kärpeid ei ole ajapuuduse tõttu enam reaalne. Alloleval graafikul on ära toodud Societe Generale poolt koostatud stsenaarium, mis juhtuks USA majanduskasvuga (nominaal), kui $3.7 triljoni väärtuses kärpeid ka kinnitataks.
Senati enamusliider Harry Reid (demokraat) andis eile õhtul teada, et tema nägemuseks on tõsta võlalimiiti, kuid kinnitada lähiajal ka $2.7 triljoni väärtuses kärpeid. Kuigi täpseid kärbete plaane ei ole veel avalikustatud (kui need üldse olemas on), siis demokraadi sõnul ei puuduta kava Medicare’i ja Medicaid’i eelarveid - $1 triljonit saadakse näiteks sõjategevuse vähendamisest Iraagis ja Afganistaanis. Maksutõuse Reid ei toeta.
Nagu eelpool mainitud, siis Boehner on teisel arvamusel – kärpeid tuleks esindajatekoja spiikri sõnul teha kohe $1.2 triljoni väärtuses ning võlalimiiti tõsta niipalju, et enne 2011. aasta lõppu selle üle uuesti arutama ei peaks ($900 miljardit). Samuti on Boehner teinud ettepaneku piirata tuleviku kulutusi, mis peaks saama kinnitatud nii senatis kui ka esindajatekojas. Erko poolt mainitud kaheetapiline kärpekava tähendaks seda, et 3 vabariiklast ja demokraati nii esindajatekojast kui ka senatist paneksid kokku kava kärpida $3 triljoni väärtuses kulutusi (sh tervishoid) ning teha muutusi maksusüsteemis.
Nagu näha, siis poliitikute plaanid erinevad endiselt tohutult. -
Kristjan, mis börsipäevas sa panid üles tabeli firmadest, keda kärped otseselt mõjutava? Tahaks seda uuesti sirvida.
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Stocker, selle tabeli pani Kristjan 14.juuli börsipäeva foorumisse.
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OK! Tänud Nelli.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AIB +12.2% (ticking higher), ROP +6.3% (light volume).
Select metals related names showing strength: AG +2.6%, SLW +2%, EXK +1.6%, GFI +1.6%, SLV +1.5%, GOLD +1.4%, GLD +0.9%.
A few European drug names are seeing modest strength: NVS +1.7%, GSK +1.7%, SNY +1.1%, AZN +0.8%.
Other news: IRE +12.9% (higher with AIB), AVII +9.4% Lancet publishes clinical trial data that demonstrate significant and dose-dependent expression of Dystrophin in duchenne muscular dystrophy patients treated with AVI BioPharma's Eteplirsen), RPTP +5.5% (meets primary endpoint in its Phase 3 clinical trial of DR Cysteamine for Nephropathic Cystinosis), ETFC +3.6% (responds to Citadel letter; Board directed co to retain Morgan Stanley (MS) to conduct another broad review of strategic alternatives), BDSI +2.3% (ticking higher, announced that the last patient has completed the randomized portion of its Phase 3 clinical trial), SYT +1.3% (still checking).
Analyst comments: P +2.6% (initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan, initiated with Buy at Citigroup, initiated with an Outperform at William Blair), CM +1% (upgraded to Action List Buy from Buy at TD Newcrest ). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CALM -2.7% (light volume), KMB -1.2%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -4.7% (Moodys downgraded Greece), BCS -3.4%, STD -2.1%, CS -1.5%, HBC -0.8%.
Other news: BPI -6.2% (files for 34.6 mln share common stock offering by the selling stockholder), RIMM -1.1% (announces retirement of Don Morrison as COO and job reduction update).
Analyst comments: CSC -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), REV -2.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), CX -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), SO -1.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), QGEN -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush), CCI -1.4% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Citadel), PEP -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; also removed from Conviction Buy List). -
Value Sounds Good in Theory
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/25/2011 8:31 AM EDT
Politics is the art of postponing decisions until they are no longer relevant. -- Henri Queuille
One of the great frustrations of the market is how our careful analysis, hard work and astute stock picking can be rendered irrelevant by the latest headlines. It doesn't matter what steps you might take if the market is focused on some macro matter of great immediate concern.
Obviously that is the case right now, with the great debate over the debt ceiling. Despite concerns of politicians over market reactions they were unable to make any notable progress in the debt debate this weekend. We can look forward now to a series of new competing and irreconcilable plans that will likely take us to the deadline before a deal is finally cut. In the end they will likely leave things mostly unresolved, but they will come up with something to address the immediate problem of spending more money than they have
Rather than dwell on the great disgust of market players with this whole process we need to figure out a way to navigate through it and make some money. The challenge is that we can be hit with new headlines at any moment that will send the market skittering in one direction or another.
The irony of a poor open this morning because there is no deal is that it sets the stage for a positive reaction when a deal is done. In fact, the great temptation is to take the other side of any sharp move because of the great likelihood that the news will soon swing in the other direction.
One of the positive aspects of this headline-driven market is that it can create opportunity when individual stocks are reflexively sold, although their fundamentals have not changed. Unfortunately it isn't always easy to recognize what is a true bargain vs. what is likely to suffer sustained selling pressure in an uncooperative market. Buying value always sounds like a great idea in theory, but it can be quite difficult to actually implement, especially when the mood the market is shifting quickly.
The challenge for us this week will be to navigate a steady flow of news headlines. I can assure you we will have at least one sharp move up on news that a debt deal is close and at least one sharp move back down on news that they are unable to make a deal. When we finally do have the deal that almost everyone thinks will happen, then the issue we have to deal with is whether it will produce a sell-the-news reaction or be cause for some sort of sustained celebration.
When the news headlines are so difficult to navigate, the better approach can be to look for the individual stocks that are acting independently of the headlines. There will almost always be some individual stocks or sectors that are performing well and with little regard to the political or economic news. In fact, these stocks often stick out more and offer better opportunities when market players are obsessed with big-picture headlines.
Look for an early bounce this morning as traders try to stay one step ahead of the next news headline. It might not last, but you can bet that there are going to be plenty of market players trying to get in front of the announcement of a deal.
I'm going to try to avoid being too caught up in the news flow and will be looking for individual stocks that are performing well. My timeframe will be short, but we should see some opportunities under the surface if we do some digging. The volatility created by the headlines will keep things tricky, but we should be able to find a few things if we keep lookin -
Nädalavahetus on analüütikutel möödunud töiselt, kuna täna alustas Pandora Media Inc. (P) katmist, mitte kolm, neli ega viis, aga koguni kuus analüüsimaja. Möödunud nädala reedel sulgus Pandora $18.03 tasemel. Tuletan siinkohal meelde, et 11. veebruaril määrati ettevõtte IPO hinnaks $7 - $9, möödunud kuu 10. päeval tõsteti hinda $10 – 12 tasemele ning lõplikuks IPO hinnaks kujunes hoopis $16, mille käigus paisati müüki 14.684 miljonit aktsiat (veidi üle 9% aktsiatest). Nagu sissejuhatuses sai mainitud, siis katmist alustas täna 6 analüüsimaja - J.P. Morgan, Citigroup ja Morgan Stanley olid nii-öelda „lead underwriterid“ ja Wells Fargo, Stifel Nicolaus ning William Blair „co-underwriterid“. Analüüsimajade hinnasihid: J.P. Morgan $22, Morgan Stanley $20, Citigroup $25, Wells Fargo $21-23 ning Stifel Nicolaus $18 (soovituseks on „hold“). William Blair hoidus hinnasihi andmisest, kuid määras Pandorale „overweight“ reitingu.
Olen mitmeid kordi avaldanud börsipäeva foorumis arvamust, et Pandora analüüsimine on „loominguline tegevus“ ning tänast turuhinda on raske põhjendada. Täna avaldatud raportid vaid paraku kinnitavad seda seisukohta – põhjuseks ei ole mitte ettevõtte ärimudel, aga tehtud oletused hinnasihti määrates. Paraku võivad analüütikute „osta“ soovitused tähendada seda, et Pandora lühikeseks müüjaid ootavad ees keerulised ajad.
2008. aastal päästis Pandora elu USA kongress, kus tänu lobistide efektiivsle tööle (sh Pandora) kinnitati Webster Settlement Act. S-1 raportis on kirjas, et ettevõtte rojaltite määrad olid perioodil 2006 – 2010 vägagi kõrged ning Pandora jätkusuutlikkus oli küsimärgi all. Tänu kongressi otsusele oli Pandoral õigus pidada läbirääkimisi SoundExchange’iga, mille tulemusena muutus autoriõigustega kaitstud muusika levitamine oluliselt odavamaks aastani 2015, mil tuleb pidada uued läbirääkimised. Morgan Stanley avaldab oma analüüsis, et Pandora vaba rahavoog (st adjusted EBITDA – taxes +/- change in net working capital – capex), mille diskonteerimisel saadakse ettevõtte väärtus, kujuneb positiivseks alles 2017. aastal. FY2012 käigus moodustasid rojaltid 60% tulubaasist. Kui aastal 2015 peaks tulema muutusi rojaltite määradesse, mis on igati tõenäoline, siis on paraku analüütikute DCF mudelid näitamas hoopis teist väärtust. Analüütikute nägemustes on ka teisi ebakõlasid (suurelt erinevad WACC ja terminal growth rate).
Pandora viimase 2 päeva graafik -
IMF-i prognoosid:
IMF updates Article IV on U.S.
-- Fiscal Policy- Consolidation needs to proceed as debt dynamics are unsustainable and losing fiscal credibility would be extremely damaging. However, the pace and composition of adjustment should be attuned to the cycle. A politically-backed medium-term framework that raises revenues and addresses long-term expenditure pressures should be the cornerstone of fiscal stabilization. The official deficit reduction proposals could be too front-loaded given the cyclical weakness and, at the same time, insufficient to stabilize the debt by mid-decade.
-- Monetary policy- Current monetary policy accommodation, including through the Fed's asset holdings, will likely remain appropriate for quite some time, unless inflation prospects change significantly, in either direction. Nurturing the recovery. Given the central role played by the housing market in the sluggish recovery, policies to ease its adjustment are particularly important. Also, since protracted high unemployment could erode job skills and hinder the medium-term recovery, there is a case for re-examining existing job-training programs and considering further tax incentives for hiring the long-term unemployed.
-- The U.S. economy continues to recover at a modest pace, in line with international experience following severe financial crises. Several indicators point to a significant growth slowdown in the first half of 2011, which appears partly related to transient factors.
-- Macroeconomic policies have thus far remained supportive, but face tighter constraints going forward.
-- Job growth has been held back by the weak recovery of aggregate demand as well as by the low employment intensity of output gains.
-- Improving financial conditions have helped underpin the recovery, but healing is still incomplete Major labor market dislocations may have pushed up the structural unemployment rate.
-- While corporate spending remains relatively weak, firms have had record-high profit growth and large firms face easy financing conditions
-- U.S. exports have been buoyed by strong external demand, even though the external sector has not added to growth.
-- Looking ahead, the recovery is expected to continue despite the expected fiscal tightening, helped by accommodative monetary policy, while inflation should remain subdued. Over the medium term, both saving and investment are projected to rise, leaving the current account deficit broadly stable around current values
-- Core inflation remains subdued, despite some recent firming
-- GDP Forecast 2011- 2.5%; 2012 2.7%; 2013 2.7% -
Täna õhtul peale turu sulgumist peaks teatama oma majandustulemused Netflix (NFLX). Firma teatas hiljuti oma hinnastruktuuri muutustest, millest lähemalt oli juttu siin. Hinnatõus tekitas terava vastuseisu pullide ja karude vahel, sest esimesed väidavad, et kallimad hinnad on pikas perspekiivis head ja marginaalse liitujate kaotuse korvavad mitmekordselt uued turud, aga karud on veendunud, et NFLX-i toode pole nii ainulaadne ning ettevõtet ootab ees märkmisväärne uute liitujate vähenemine. Milliseks olukord kujuneb, näeme tõenäoliselt alles mõne kvartali pärast, aga sellegipoolest on tänased tulemused samuti olulised, sest lõppenud kvartali jooksul on aktsiahind kosunud ca 25% ja aktsia valuatsioon ei anna firmale palju eksimisruumi.
Street Insider on ära toonud ka analüütikute ootused ning juhendab investoreid, millele tulemuste analüüsimisel erilist tähelepanu pöörata.
Konsensus ootab ettevõttelt kasumit aktsia kohta $ 1,11 ja käivet vähemalt $ 791,48 miljonit. Madalaim hinnasiht aktsiale on $ 100 ja kõrgeim $ 360. Olgu ka öeldud, et NFLX short intrest on 20%.
NFLX kaupleb hetkel $ 280,00 kandis, 1,6% plusspoolel. -
Netflix prelim $1.26 vs $1.12 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $788.6 mln vs $791.23 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Vähemalt lühiajaliselt võitsid NFLX-i rindel karud pulle, sest hinnatõusu tõttu annab firma järgmiseks kvartaliks üsna kehva prognoosi ja investorite pettumus väljendub ka aktsiahinnas, sest järelturul kaupleb aktsia 7% miinuspoolel, $ 257 kandis.
NFLX issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of 0.72-1.07 vs. $1.08 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q3 revs of $799.5-828.5 mln vs. $845.58 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Pricing Commentary: It is expected and unfortunate that our DVD subscribers who also use streaming don't like our price change, which can be as much as a 60% increase for them from $9.99 to $15.98, when it goes into effect for each subscriber upon their renewal date in September.
Pricing Changes and Effect on Subscribers: In Q3 we will see only the negative impact of the pricing change, given that the announcement was early in the quarter and that the increases won't take effect until late in the quarter (September 15th on average). We expect domestic net additions in Q3 to be lower than the previous year Q3, and because of the timing of the price change, revenues will only grow slightly on a sequential basis. In Q4, we expect domestic net additions to return to a pattern of year-over-year growth while revenue will reflect a full quarter's impact of the pricing changes, which could result in Q4 being our first billion dollar global revenue quarter, driven by strong U.S. performance.
