Börsipäev 27. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Läbirääkimised USA-s jätkusid eile tulemusteta ning sarnaselt näib see kulgevat vähemalt nädala lõpuni, kui homme peaks Boehneri plaan hääletamisele minema, kuid kuna Obama on juba lubanud selle tagasi lükata, siis tõotavad arutelud jätkuda kuni viimase minutini. Dollar on Šveitsi frangi vastu tegemas uusi ajaloolisi põhjasid ning EUR/USD on USA võimaliku maksejõuetuse hirmu tõttu kosunud üle $1,4500 dollari.
Makrokalender saab endiselt olema suhteliselt õhuke, kui olulisematest uudistest võiks välja tuua USA juunikuu kestvuskaupade tellimused (kl 15.30) ja FEDi Beige Booki avaldamise (kell 21.00). Majandustulemustega on täna enne turgu saabumas Arcelor Mittal, AU Optronics, Boeing, ConocoPhillips, Delta Air Lines, Tupperware , WellPoint. Pärast turgu raporteerivad Crocs, Green Mtn Coffee, Whole Foods.
USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel nulli lähedal, Euroopa peaks aga avanema kerge miinusega. -
Kas kellelgi uue IPO kohta ka oleks midagi kommenteerida? Millega tegeleb ja kas tasub jälgimist?
Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. ( DNKN )
Prices 22.25M share IPO at $19/shr, above the $16-18/shr initial range
- Will begin trading on the Nasdaq market on 7/27. -
Tänases WSJ-s on üsna ülevaatlik artikkel Dunkin Brandist. Kuigi nime järgi võiks ettevõte peamiseks müügiartikliks olla igasugused küpsetised, siis aastaid on suurendatud kohvi ja muude jookide valikut, mis prospekti kohaselt genereeris mullu 60% ettevõtte käibest. Seega peamiste konkurentidena tuleks vaadata eelkõige Starbucksi ja McDonaldsit. Dunkini brändi ostsid 2006. aastal private equity firmad 2,4 miljardi dollari eest, kelle käe all on ettevõtte võlakoorem kasvanud 1,8 miljardi dollarini ja seega suur osa kasumist läheb võla teenindamisele (esimeses kvartalis 75% ärikasumist). Ettevõtte tooteid müüakse USA-s 6800-s (maailmas üle 16000) poes (kaasaarvatud supermarketid ja bensiinijaamad vs McDonaldsi 14000) ning järgmise kahe aasta raames on plaanis avada USA-s 250 uut poodi ja 20 aasta perspektiivis nähakse potentsiaali kahekordistada oma jaotuskanaleid. Paraku läheb sisuliselt kogu IPO-st saadud raha 475 miljoni dollari suuruse kõrge intressiga võla tagasimaksmiseks, mille omanikud võtsid mullu novembris, et endale dividende maksta.
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Valge Maja on oma koduleheküljel visuaalselt ilusasti ära toonud, milliste programmide finantseerimise läbi on USA riigi võlakorem viimase kümne aastaga 14 triljoni dollarini kasvanud. Link
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Mis omxnordic leht ei avane täna, või on mul endal mingi kala ?
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tundub olevat mingi üldisem probleem, kuna mulgi ei avane
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DNKN-i põhiartikkel peaks olema Dunkin' Donutsi kohvikukett, mis müüb peamiselt sama brändi sõõrikuid. Midagi KKD-taolist vast siis
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USA võlalimiidi tõstmise debatt on jõudnud punkti, kus maksejõuetuse riski on pidanud adekvaatsemalt hindama ka üks arvelduskodadest. Alates homsest ei aktsepteeri CME Grupp USA lühiajalisi riigivõlakirju riskivaba tagatisena ja tõstab tagatismäära 0,5% juurde. http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/07/treasuries-lose-risk-free-status.html
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Rain Laan
USA võlalimiidi tõstmise debatt on jõudnud punkti, kus maksejõuetuse riski on pidanud adekvaatsemalt hindama ka üks arvelduskodadest. Alates homsest ei aktsepteeri CME Grupp USA lühiajalisi riigivõlakirju riskivaba tagatisena ja tõstab tagatismäära 0,5% juurde. http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/07/treasuries-lose-risk-free-status.html
ma ei tea kas ja kuidas see reaalselt midagi mõjutab, aga paljude fondide tegutsemismudel on osta kogu raha eest riigivõlakirju ja omandada nende tagatisel futuure - näiteks paljude toorainefondide puhul käib see nii, panna võlakirjad tagatiseks ja teenida väikese intressi näol lisatootlust ning püüda tooraine hinnaliikumisi läbi futuuride -
Eile õhtul teatas oma teise kvartali tulemustest Amazon (AMZN), mis investoritele ka kindlasti meelt mööda olid, sest firma ületas konsenuse ootusi nii käibe kui ka kasumi osas. Firma EPS oli $ 0,42 versus konsenuse $ 0,35 ja käive $ 9,92 miljardit versus konsensuse $ 9,36 miljardit.
Citi kinnitab tulemustejärgselt oma Osta soovitust aktsiale ja tõstab hinnasihi $ 240 pealt $ 280 peale, mis on ka new street high.
Samal ajal alandavad Citi analüütikud 2011. aasta prognoose: 2011 EPS langetatakse $ 2,36 pealt $ 1,97 peale.
Nende põhjendus taolisele vastuolulisele hinnangule on järgnev:
AMZN EPS estimates go down, but the stock goes up? Here are some reasons: 1) AMZN’s investments are clearly from a market-share-vacuuming position of strength; 2) AMZN faces a very large Double-Double Market Opportunity in its Core Retail Business; 3) AMZN materially benefits from most of today’s major Net platform trends (Mobile, Cloud, perhaps Local) and is largely unaffected by the rise of Social Networking; 4) AMZN’s management team has a proven track record of succeeding thru investment cycles (’04-’06); and 5) AMZN is building a platform from which to generate substantial FCF growth for many, many years…
AMZN kaupleb eelturul $ 227,00 taseme juures, 5,9% plusspoolel. -
MS tõstab $275 peale ja pakub, et $100B revenue company aastaks 2014 :)
Omamoodi huvitav on täna JNPR, seni näinud seitset dg, nii ühte auku pole analüütikud sel kvartalil veel ühtegi stocki lükanud... -
Reitinguagentuuri Moody’s (MCO) teise kvartali kasum sööstis 56% võrreldes eelmise aasta sama perioodiga, kuna MCO sõnul kasvas erinevate võlakirjade emiteerimine, millede riskihindamine on MCO põhitegevuseks. Kogu aasta EPS-i prognoos tõsteti vahemikku $2.38 kuni $2.48. Teise kvartali kasumiks oli $0.82 aktisa kohta ja käive $605.2 miljonit. Analüütikute keskmine prognoos oli $0.57 EPS ja $549 miljonit käivet. MCO on eelturul kallinenud +4.36%.
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Makro oodatust kehvem ning ES jätkab hetkel kauplemist 0,4% punases
June Durable Orders ex-trans +0.1% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.7%
June Durable Orders -2.1% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +1.9% from +2.1% -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ESIO +13.9%, QCOR +10.4%, KEYN +10%, TPX +7.3%, RFMD +6.7%, AMZN +5.8%, LAD +5.8%, KEM +5.7% (light volume), CAP +5.6%, HTCH +4.9%, IRBT +4.8%, LVS +4.8%, IGT +4.6%, DWA +4.4%, GNK +4.2%, WYN +3.3%, AET +3.2%, MT +2.6%, BA +2.6%, ERTS +2.5% (light volume), DOW +2.2%, EXC +2.1% (light volume), MCO +1.8% (light volume), TMO +1.1%, NSC +0.9%.
Casino/gaming names are lifting following LVS and IGT results: MPEL +1.9%, MGM +1.6%, WYNN +1.3%, WMS +0.8%.
Other news: TSRX +9.1% (Trius Therapeutics and Bayer form strategic collaboration to develop and commercialize Torezolid Phosphate in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets), FONR +8.9% (announces UPRIGHT MRI Sale to Neuroscience Spine Institute in Northeast U.S.), AFFY +4.2% (Affymax and Takeda announce FDA acceptance of New Drug Application for Peginesatide), DANG +3.8% (still checking), VRX +1.6% (reports out overnight indicated the co was considering purchase of Meda AB), ED +0.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: DLTR +0.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JNPR -19.5% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair, downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity and downgraded to Neutral at Piper Jaffray ), IPHI -10.9% (ticking lower), PFCB -9.3%, JDAS -9.2%, TRN -8.6%, ILMN -8.5%, ALR -7.2%, AVL -5.9% (also announces proposed public offering of common shares), ARW -5.3%, PNRA -4.9%, STD -4.5%, GLW -4%, HA -4% (light volume), LLTC -3.8%, HES -3.7%, LVLT -3.6%, WLP -3.5%, BWLD -1.6%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -3.7%, BCS -3.1%, LYG -2.8%, BBVA -2.1%, RBS -1.5%, DB -1.1%, UBS -1%.
A few JNPR peers and related names are seeing early weakness: CIEN -5.6%, ARUN -2.6%, CSCO -1.2%.
Other news: CYTR -17.2% (announced a common stock and common stock purchase warrants underwritten public offering), ALU -4.4% (still checking), AFFX -3.1% (trading lower with ILMN), LIFE -2.4% (trading lower with ILMN), GFA -2.1% (Gafisa reports delay in filing annual report on Form 20F for the year ended December 31, 2010).
Analyst comments: PCX -1.6% ( downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), STM -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan). -
The Debt Factor
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/27/2011 8:50 AM EDT
"There is nothing more likely to start disagreement among people or countries than an agreement."
--E. B. White
While the market action hasn't been particularly interesting or energetic lately, there are a couple notable developments.
First, the market is holding up well and isn't buying into all the shrill warnings of impending disaster if a debt-ceiling deal isn't done. As we all know, the market looks ahead and it appears to be quite confident that we won't have a debt default and a major economic crisis. If the market was really worried that a deal wouldn't happen, we would be seeing major selling.
The collective wisdom of the market is that all the drama out of Washington is just a lot of noise and some sort of agreement will be made soon. I suspect that a deal will be struck over the weekend, which means, unfortunately, that we'll continue to hear about this tedious political sniping for at least a few more days.
Assuming the market is correct in anticipating a deal, the big question is whether it's being priced in and creating a setup for a "sell the news" reaction. The answer will depend largely on what sort of deal is eventually struck. If we get a Band-Aid approach, which kicks the problem down the road, a positive market reaction is likely to be very short lived. On the other hand, a "grand bargain" that actually addresses some of the problems with entitlement programs could have a much more dramatic and long-lasting impact.
Most political commentators seem to think a major deal is unlikely, but there is still a chance. In that case, the bears and those looking for a "sell the news" reaction will be caught by surprise.
The other thing to note about the market action is that there has been a move to big-cap technology names like Apple (AAPL) , Google (GOOG) and Baidu (BIDU) . Over the last nine trading days, the Nasdaq-100 is up 3.2% while the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is down 1.2%. Market players are gravitating toward the big, liquid names, particularly since they have had some of the best earnings reports this quarter. Amazon (AMZN) is helping to continue the theme this morning with its very strong reaction to its numbers.
The action under the surface has been weaker than the indices indicate and that can be seen in the breadth numbers, which have been poor. The lesson is that you have to be much more selective with your trades. In addition, we have had some weaker closes and not very strong momentum, so it has been very easy for what looks like a good trade to fizzle out.
Some of this market action is due to the summer vacation season, so things are slow. Market players are overly energetic, and the uncertainty created by the political news only adds to the inclination to do only a little.
We will continue to be pushed around by news, but as we saw Tuesday, the market is doing a pretty good job of ignoring the noise out of Washington. We'll see more drama as the framework of an actual deal materializes, but for now, we will continue to tread water.
I'll stick with a very short-term approach without much of a market bias. There are opportunities, but placing big bets in this environment is risky.
Despite the good reports from AMZN, Boeing (BA) and a few others, we have a slightly weak open as market players tire of the political debate. On the other hand, with a deal in place the market will celebrate and keep the bears from becoming too comfortable. -
Briefing.com vahendusel:
Crude oil inventories had a build of 2.3 mln (consensus is a draw of 2.0 mln)
Gasoline inventories had a build of 1.02 mln (consensus is a build of 0.4 mln)
Distillate inventories had a build of 3.39 mln (consensus is a build of 1.6 mln) -
Majority Leader Cantor and Speaker Boehner skip their expected news conf; CNBC reports that OMB Director Jack Lew has cancelled his Squawk on the St interview
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DNKN alustas kauplemist, hetkel $27 tasemel (IPO $19).
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James Altucher, kes armastab aeg-ajalt nii ühel kui teisel teemal sõna võtta ning on tuntud ka kirjaniku ja blogipidajana, kirjutab täna MarketWarch.com veebilehel, et Google (GOOG) võib mõne aja pärast olla $ 1500 aktsia. Veelgi enam- Altucher usub, et juba 12 kuu pärast võiks Google`i aktsia tema hinnasihini jõuda.
Tema sõnul on GOOG aktsia üks paremaid investeermisvõimalusi ning arutelu, kuidas ta selle hinnasihini jõudis, võib lugeda siit. -
$35 bln 5-yr Note Auction Results: 1.580%; Bid/Cover 2.63x (Prior 2.59x, 12-auction avg 2.83x); Indirect Bidders 36.6% (Prior 37.6%, 12-auction avg 41.8%)
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Crocs prelim $0.61 may not be comparable to $0.44 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $295.6 mln vs $281.72 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Green Mtn Coffee prelim $0.49 vs $0.35 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $717.2 mln vs $606.76 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Equinix prelim $0.64 vs $0.47 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $394.9 mln vs $379.9 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Equinix sees Q3 revs $412-417 mln vs $394.2 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Equinix sees FY11 revs greater than $1.59 bln vs $1.55 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
GMCR ja CROX jätkasid kauplemist peale tulemuste teatamist ja CROX kauplemas 4% plusspoolel ($ 28,15) ja GMCR 9% kõrgemal ($ 102,50)
