Börsipäev 9. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Müügisurve globaalsetel aktsiaturgudel on jätkunud kõva survega. Euroopa näitas eile veel korraks rohelist, kuid EKP otsust hinnati päeva teises pooles tühiseks ning Stoxx 600 lõpetas 4,1% madalamal. Veebruari tippudest ollakse nüüd ca 21% madalamal ning seega ametlikult juba karuturul. S&P 500 ei jää ka enam kuigi palju maha pärast eilset 7%-list kukkumist. Investorid on üha rohkem arvamusel, et edasine majanduskeskkond saab olema ootustest selgelt halvem ning täiendavat hirmu külvab riikide piiratud võime majandust stimuleerida.
Tänase päeva põhifookus langeb FOMC kohtumisele, mis erinevalt varasemast ei päädi Bernanke pressikonverentsiga ja sestap jälgitakse statementi sõnastust (21.15). Viimase aja makro põhjal võib eeldada, et ka keskpank võtab majanduse suhtes pehmema nägemuse, kuid see ei pruugi veel tähendada täiendavat rahatrükki. Paljuski sõltub praegu keskpanga inflatsiooni nägemusest, kuid konsensus näeb rahapoliitika koordineerijat hetkel veel kaalumas alternatiivseid stimuleerimismeetmeid nagu näiteks bilansi duratsiooni pikendamist ja Fedi reservis hoitava raha pealt makstava intressi alandamist praeguselt 0,25% pealt, et pankadel oleks rohkem põhjust kapitali majandusse panna. Suuresti arvatakse aga et igasugused kõnelused sel teemal võiksid kulmineeruda 26. augustiga, mil Bernanke peab oma igaaastase kõne.
USA indeksite futuurid näitasid veel mõni hetk tagasi 1,5%-list miinust, kuid on nüüdseks kosunud nulli. Euroopa on aga võtmas järgi ning alustamas päeva -4,5% madalamal. -
Deutsche on langetamas DAXi aastalõpu sihti 6800 peale (mäletamist mööda oli see neil enne 8000). Põhjused alljärgnevad:
1) a disappointing Q2 reporting given that we expected Q2 to trigger DAX performance, 2) potential earnings downgrades ahead, and 3) the DAX’ cyclical nature and, consequently, its tendency to underperform the broader European market in down turns. The recent sell-off assumes a cut in 2012 earnings greater 25% which we believe
is overdone. Historically, earnings downgrades were around 15-20% 4 months after earnings reached a peak. We think short-term uncertainty is likely to keep markets under pressure and macro data will need to confirm a slow-down in global growth rather than a recession to support a DAX level of 6,800 2011 year-end which incorporates a 15% cut in 2012 earnings and a PE of 10.4 (last 12-month median). -
Kui Aasia indeksite liikumist jälgida, siis täna võib Euroopas kerge põrge tulla.
Turu avanedes olid indeksid sügavas miinuses, millest nüüdseks on järele jäänud mõõdukas miinus. -
Ka USA futuurid plusspoolel
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usa futuurid ka öösel -3% üle protsendi plussi jõudnud
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Vastupidiselt ootustele kiirenes Hiina inflatsioon juulis 6,5% peale võrreldes juuni 6,4%-ga (Bloombergi konsensus ootas THI samaks jäämist). Teoorias peaks see suurendama intressi tõstmise ootust, kuid globaalse makro nõrgenemine ja commodity odavnemine võiks keskpanga asetada pigem äraootavale seisukohale. Täna avaldatakse lisaks veel tööstustoodangu ja jaemüügi muutuse numbrid.
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Hiina inflatsiooni kohta on erinevad analüüsimajad andnud järgmiseid kommentaare:
J.P. Morgan - While China’s July consumer price inflation reading of 6.5% YoY is slightly above estimates, we expect that China’s inflation has begun to peak. PPI came in below J.P. Morgan expectations at 7.5% YoY. Key global commodity prices are falling with the weakening global economic outlook and domestic pork prices have begun to stabilize as a result of supply increases. However, we note that underlying inflationary pressures remain in place, from rising wages and the rapid expansion of money supply over the last two years.
Citigroup - We had anticipated a benchmark rate hike as a result of higher inflation in July. However, downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and the ensuing global financial market turmoil has significantly increased downside risk to the global economy. Policy makers in China will likely be very cautious in such an uncertain environment, especially given the experience in late 2008 when the Fed started to cut rates and PBOC continued to hike rates. Therefore, we think there will be no interest rate hike for the rest of this year.
HSBC - July's data suggested that headline inflation has peaked, we believe. This had been foreshadowed by the recent easing of all price sub-components in China's latest PMIs. We expect prices to continue cooling in coming months, thanks to: a) the continued slowing of money supply growth in response to tightening measures imposed since last October; b) more favourable base effect; c) commodities prices continuing to soften on the back of slower US and global growth (our US economist has recently revised down 2011 US GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.5% previously); d) cooler domestic demand as evidenced in recent investment and PMI numbers; and e) government measures designed to encourage pork and food production which have started to show initial signs of effectiveness in stabilizing prices. -
Niipalju siis Silvano "rohelisest" aktsiahinnast ....
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WYNN, mida Citigroup downgrades 08 aasta detsembris Sellile hinnalt 40 targetiga 29, teeb WYNN-le nüüd lõpuks upgrade to Hold, teesiks sell-off overdone.
Päeva nummi :)))) -
S&P tõstis Eesti krediidireitingu A pealt AA- peale, väljavaade stabiilne
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Ehk et nüüd on siis maailma suurima välisvõlaga riigi maksejõulisuse reiting sama, mis Euroopa väikseima välisvõlaga riigi maksejõulisuse reiting.
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Sips veel ja sama reiting mis USAl :-)
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All hail UnZip!
:-D -
ühendatud anumate seadus toimib, eks see Eestile sama punkt juurde anti, mis USAlt ära võeti
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Täna on Rackspace Hosting (RAX)-i aktsiale andnud Osta soovituse kaks analüüsimaja.
Piper Jaffray tõstab RAX-i reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 43 hinnasihiga ja RBC Capital Markets tõstab reitingu samuti Osta peale koos $ 46 hinnasihiga.
Piper Jaffray: Upgrade to Overweight. Rackspace has long been one of our favorite companies in one of our favorite industries – hosting. Our Neutral stance was based on valuation, but we are using the market pullback to get back involved. Revenue growth has accelerated, and the company is increasing its leadership role.
Best In Breed. Rackspace is the fastest growing major hosting company, and is a thought leader in the cloud hosting business. Its OpenStack is quickly becoming a defacto standard for cloud services. We expect the trend towards cloud hosting to continue to drive revenue growth.
Success In The Enterprise. Rackspace's history has been in the small and medium business market, but has been expanding into larger corporations, with 10% of revenues from corporations. We believe this new segment has the ability to keep growth at a high level on a base of $1B in revenue.
Piper Jaffray analüütikud ütlevad, et RAX on üks nende lemmikfirmasid nende lemmiksektoris- cloud hosting (pilvemajutus on teenus, kus RAX võimaldab firmadel lasta oma veebilehte või aplikatsioone seal joosta ). Nüüd, kus aktsia on koos turuga alla müüdud, leiavad analüütikud, et see on suurepärane ostukoht. RAX on kiiresti kasvav ning on liider cloud hostingu segmendis. Kui ajalooliselt on firma tegutsenud peamiselt väikeste ja keskmise suurusega firmade turul, siis nüüd on RAX laienemas ka suurkorporatsioonide turule, kust tuleb 10% käibest. Analüütikud usuvad, et just sealt on oodata ka ettevõttele käibekasvu.
RBC: Upgrading to Outperform. We are upgrading RAX from Sector Perform to Outperform. We believe RAX is better positioned in a choppy macro environment than most datacenter/colocation operators because: 1) demand for managed services, particularly cloud, appears to be accelerating at a faster pace than colo demand; and 2) Rackspace provides clients with the ability to optimize or lower IT capex and opex by reducing reliance on client-owned IT equipment and resources. We expect continued growth acceleration from cloud and enterprise demand. Strong results during 1H11 squarely address our earlier caution on execution risk during the company’s accelerating growth. Our price target is $46.
Ka RBC analüütikud on oma ametivendadega ühte meelt ning usuvad, et vaatamata logisevale majandusele on firma siiski heal positsioonil ja ning kasv ja suurenev nõudlus peaks tulema just cloud hosting segmendist.
Nii nagu kõik teised aktsiad on ka RAX kahe viimase nädala jooksul sattunud suure müügisurve alla. Täna viitab eelturg, et vähemalt ajutiselt on müügisurve raugenud ning võttes arvesse, et RAX on saanud täna kaks upgrade`i, alla müüdud ning ühtlasi ka hea liikuja, siis eeldaks, et aktsia on täna ka ostjate radaril. Kuid ettevaatust, sest nagu viimaste päevade liikumiste põhjal on näha olnud, meeleolud võivad väga kiirelt muutuda. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MAKO +8.6% (light volume), GA +8.3%, BEXP +5.7%, TC +3.4%.
Select financial related names showing strength: NBG +7.0%, BAC +5.5%, STD +4.9%, BCS +2.9% ING +2.8%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RIO +9.1%, BBL +5.9%, BHP +5.7%, MT +3.7%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SD +6.9%, RIG +4.2%, HAL +4.2%, TSO +4.1%, SDRL +3%, RDS.A +1.7%, BP +1.6%.
Other news: ALU +8.8% and FRO +6.7% (still checking for anything specific), NAT +5.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VE +4.1% (still checking), NGD +3.1% (ticking higher, Intersects 278 meters of 2.8 Grams per Tonne Gold at Blackwater Project), SLE +2.7% (SLE's Private Brand Refrigerated Dough Business to be acquired by Ralcorp Holdings), .
Analyst comments: S +5.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at BTIG), WFC +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), PFE +1.4% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), MRK +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies) -
Henno, Eestile anti suisa 2 punkti juurde. Aga noh, eks USA ole summa summarum meist 2x rohkem väärt ka.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LLNW -25.8%, ENOC -16.4% (also downgraded at JPMorgan, Think Equity and Brean Murray), FOSL -14.8%, SOL -9.4%, CLNE -9%, SYNM -8.7%, TTWO -5.6%.
Other news: UN -10.4% (still checking for anything specific), SBLK -2.2% (continued weakness). -
Turmoil Abounds
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/9/2011 9:07 AM EDT
"The emotions aren't always immediately subject to reason, but they are always immediately subject to action."
--William James
Markets swung wildly overnight as emotions swirl and confusion reigns. Many indices fell as much as 5% but have bounced into positive territory as market players react to the moves and try to sort out what is driving the action.
There are all sorts of explanations about why there is such turmoil, but the only thing we need to know is that emotions are extreme and logic and reason don't matter. You are wasting your time looking for a logical explanation of why we the market is doing what it is doing.
The obvious catalysts are Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt and the problems with Italian and Spanish debt in the US. These things really aren't sudden surprises but they have spooked the market, which has been struggling to deal with weak economic growth for a while.
Although there are all sorts of big-picture worries, individual stocks have generally had strong earnings and good guidance. If you look at just the earnings reports of individual companies, you would never suspect that there is such turmoil in the economy.
Unfortunately, fundamentals don't much matter when the market is in a panic. Everything is sold, regardless of merits. Probably the most remarkable aspect of the selling is how lopsided it has been. Breadth is the worst it has been in over 70 years as market players rush to dump absolutely everything.
We had this same lopsided action on the upside a number of times during the past couple of years, which was an indication that computerized high-frequency trading was at work. Now we are seeing it work in the other direction. Many folks only complain about this sort of manipulation when it is to the downside, but it has been infecting this market for a couple years -- mostly on the upside. Maybe we will finally see some action since it is the perma-bulls who are doing the complaining now.
Between the emotions, computerized trading and macro news flow, the market is tremendously unstable. The best thing many market players can do is stand aside until things cool off. Trying to navigate this action is a wild gamble. While we are oversold and due for a bounce, the swings are so severe that the risk is just unacceptable in many cases.
I've been writing that I have no interest in trying to predict when this market will bottom and will look to buy only after some strength. My thinking is that avoiding the losses caused by trying to catch a turn in a downtrend market will put me far ahead of the game so I can be patient in putting my precious capital to work. When stocks act better, it won't be just a one-day event. The key to making money isn't buying the exact low (which is nearly impossible to do). The key is to buy when there is a trend that you can ride. When that trend starts to develop, jump in aggressively. The trend now is still down, and that has to be respected.
There is no question that the market is oversold. We are stretched to the downside, which sets up conditions for a big snap back. Many are hopeful that the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate announcement today will be the catalyst that brings in buyers. While there are plenty of doubts about the possibility, and the value, of more quantitative easing, it probably has the potential to move the market if there any hints at all about some form of it from the Fed.
Ben Bernanke tends to be very market friendly and there is very likely to be some comments in the Fed statement today about how the central bank is willing to act as needed. That sort of reassurance may be hollow, but it could be enough to pop a market under pressure.
The good news is that this wild action is creating all sorts of opportunities. It may be too early to act on them, but they are emerging and it is going to make for some interesting trading. The key is to not let losses eat you up in the near term and to make sure you have plenty of unencumbered capital to work with.
Out of chaos, great opportunities arise. Just stay flexible, patient and open-minded and you'll be in good shape. -
Briefing.com vahendusel Apple'ist ja Samsungist:
"Rodman & Renshaw notes, on 8/1, the Federal Court of Australia issued an injunction preventing Samsung from advertising or selling the Galaxy Tab 10.1 in Australia. The Court sided with Apple's legal position that Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 had violated Apple's basic user interface patents. Firm believes that Samsung will not be able to implement a work-around Apple's IP as these are fundamental patents on multi-touch among other features. Besides Australia, Apple has also filed suit against Samsung in Germany, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. Thus far Samsung Galaxy Tab has constituted a majority of the non iPad Tablet shipments if not sell-through." -
Kas mul on kuskil rehkendustes viga või ongi Vene rubla euro vastu ühe päevaga 5,77% odavnenud? Kui jah, siis mis nii suure liikumise põhjustas? Nafta?
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Rubla on euro ja dollari vastu tõesti viimastel päevadel järgi andnud ning nafta hinna liikumine on ilmselt õige pakkumine, kuna sellest sõltub majanduse käekäik ja valitsuse eelarve tulude pool.
EUR/RUB -
Tänud.
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Lisaks nafta hinna kukkumisele on tõenäoliselt toetanud rubla langemist üldine börsipaanika ja investorid on liigutanud varad turvalisematesse varaklassidesse. Venemaa keskpank sekkus täna valuutaturgudele ja müüs 150-200 miljoni dollari väärtuses valuutareserve, et peatada rubla langus.
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Kuna turg on täna ilusa põrke teinud ja kenasti plussis püsinud, siis meelitas ka RAX ostjad ligi ning aktsia kaupleb hetkel 10,3 % plusspoolel ($ 34,75). Aktsia avanes $ 32,90 peal ja tuli peale avanemist korra koos turuga ka ca $0,50 alla, kuid siis jätkas ühtlases tempos tõusu.
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Kui valuutaturgu vaadata, siis seal küll mingit usku sellesse põrkesse pole....eur ja usd on teinud chf vastu uued ajaloolised põhjad. EUR/CHF -2,7% ja USD/CHF -3,15%. Kuld kaupleb samuti kõrgemal +1,7% 1741 dollari juures.
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Investeerimisidee MR- ga on toimumas väga kummaline liikumine ja optsioonidest on nii callid kui ka putid punased, ehk oskate kommenteerida ?
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Volatiilsuse muutus on -37.29, mõlemad optsioonipaarid on kaotanud volatiilsuse alanemisele väärtust
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stocker
Volatiilsuse muutus on -37.29, mõlemad optsioonipaarid on kaotanud volatiilsuse alanemisele väärtust
Loe sealt : Option Greeks: Vega. See põhjustabki selle, et mõlemad paarid on miinuses.
http://optionstradingbeginner.blogspot.com/2007/06/option-greeks-vega.html -
kiirel pilgul olid tulemused nii top kui bottom line'i osas ootustest paremad ja kuigi aastalõpu guidance jääb pisut konsensusele alla, siis see oli selge tegelikult juba esimeses kvartalis. Kuulame konverentsikõne ära, vaatame tulemused põhjalikumalt läbi ja siis jagame pikema kommetaari peagi juba Pro all.
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Šveitsi frank jätkab tugevnemist, kaubeldes nii euro kui ka dollari vastu kõikide aegade tippude lähedal ning hetkel vastavalt 3,1% ja 3,35% kõrgemal.
Meeldetuletuseks, et kell 21.15 on Fedi intressimäära otsus ja võimalik vihje uuele stiimulprogrammile. -
FOMC says economic conditions to warrant exceptionally low Fed Funds rate through at least mid-2013
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QE3-e pole mainitud, Fed jätkab ülilõdva monetaarpoliitikaga vähemalt 2013. aasta keskpaigani (vs eelnevate kohtumiste "extended period" sõnastus).
Will continue to reinvest maturing mortgage and treasury debt. Inflation expectations 'have remained stable.'
EURUSD ei ole pärast esmast reaktsiooni väga suurt liikumist näidanud, aga USDCHF vajub aina sügavamale, kaubeldes hetkel 4,5% madalamal 0,7205 juures (põhi hetkeseisuga 0,7177). -
Peaks vist homse Tallinna põrke edasi lükkama.
Määramata ajaks. -
Kas täna pannakse turg varem kinni?
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Apple'st ongi ootamatult saanud maailma väärtuslikeim firma:
http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/09/apple-exxon-valuable-company/ -
Jaapani jeen on dollari vastu tõusnud täna 1,27% ja kaupleb eelmise nädala Jaapani keskpanga sekkumise eelsel tasemel 76,70 juures,
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Veel reedel enne S&P dowgrade'i oli USA 10 aastase võlakirja yield 2,6%, täna käis aga rekordmadalal tasemel 2,03% peal - madalamal kui FED oli sunnitud alustama QE1-ga
Dshort vahendusel graafik veel eilse seisuga. -
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — "The Federal Reserve on Tuesday expressed much more concern about the economic outlook and said it would hold interest rates at ultralow levels “at least” through mid-2013, the first time the central bank put a time frame on their duration."
Mispeale kohe ka aktsiaindeksid rallisid vastavalt:
Dow 11,239.77 +429.92 +3.98%
Nasdaq 2,482.52 +124.83 +5.29%
S&P 500 1,172.53 +53.07 +4.74%
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FED:
"Economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected."
"Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up"
S&P 500 rallib selle peale +4,74%... -
PeaLiK
FED:"Economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected."
"Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up"
S&P 500 rallib selle peale +4,74%...
Kedagi ei koti ,et asjad on sitasti.
Kui on väikegi võimalus ,et raha juurde tehakse siis tuleb rally.
