Börsipäev 11. august
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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VIX jõudis tagasi kahe aasta tippude juurde ning turusentiment oli eile taas väga negatiivne, kui kulutulena läksid liikvele jutud, et järgmisena võidakse langetama hakata Prantsuse krediidireitingut ning riigi teiseks suurim pank Société Générale on seismas silmitsi likviidsusprobleemidega. DAX ja CAC kukkusid päeva lõpuks üle 5% ja kuigi USA sessiooni ajal SocGeni tegevjuht eitas spekulatsioone ning Sarkozy lubas leida täiendavaid meetmeid, et kärpida selleks aastaks 5,7%ni kasvavat eelarvedefitsiiti ja 85%-ni SKT-st kerkivat võlakoormat, siis ka USA börsidel võeti suhteliselt ignorantne seisukoht. Praeguseks on aga USA futuurid teinud veidi eilseid kaotusi tasa, põrgates 1,8% ning sellega toetanud liikumist Aasia börsidel. Euroopa on alustamas veidi üle protsendi jagu kõrgemal.
Makrokalender jääb täna suhteliselt õhukeseks ning ainsana võiks suuremat tähelepanu pälvida USA möödunud nädala töötuabiraha taotluste number. 400K on see piir, millest allapoole jääva numbri puhul arvatakse, et siis luuakse USA-s rohkem töökohti kui neid kaotatakse, kuid viimasel ajal on see püsinud põikpäiselt üle 400K ning möödunud nädala statistika osas näeb konsensus pigem halvenemise võimalust, oodates tõusu 400K pealt 409K peale. -
[quote=Erko Rebane]kuigi USA sessiooni ajal SocGeni tegevjuht eitas spekulatsioone ning Sarkozy lubas leida täiendavaid meetmeid, et kärpida selleks aastaks 5,7%ni kasvavat eelarvedefitsiiti ja 85%-ni SKT-st kerkivat võlakoormat, siis ka USA börsidel võeti suhteliselt ignorantne seisukoht.[quote]
Seda, kas see seisukoht ikka nii ignorantne oligi, näitab alles tulevik... -
eks eelmisest finantskriisist on meelde jäänud, et pankade enda kommentaarid ei pruugi midagi maksta. Mitmed analüüsimajad olid eile igatahes Prantsusmaa reitingut ja pankasid kaitsmas, nentides et kui Bear Sterns ja Lehman tuginesid oma operatsioonides rohkem lühiajalistele laenamisele siis prantsusmaa pankadel on piisavalt hea kapitalipuhver. Siit võib pikemalt lugeda.
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Kui nüüd SocGen või mõni teine luubi all olevatest asutustest ei lähegi põhja, siis võib päris kõva ralli tulemas olla.
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ei, siis mõeldakse uus probleem välja ja saab jätkata müügiga.
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Uue reitingumuutuse objekti leidmine ei valmista mingit probleemi.
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Muretsemiseks andsid eile mingil määral põhjust ka Prantsusmaa makronäitajad. Juulikuu tööstustoodang alanes juulis eelmise kuu basil -1,6% võrreldes oodatud -0,7% ning töötleva tööstuse toodang vähenes samal perioodil -1,9% võrreldes prognoositud -0,1%. Aasta baasil mõlemad näitajad küll kasvasid, kuid oodatust aeglasemalt, mis võib olla üks põhjus, miks Sarkozy on nõudmas täiendavaid kärpemeetmeid, kuna praegused sihid võivad toetuda liiga optimistlikele kasvuprognoosidele. S&P on öelnud, et USA puhul võidakse uuesti reitingut langetama hakata, kui majanduskasv kujuneb oodatust nõrgemaks ning kahtlemata on see tegur, mida jälgitakse ka Prantsusmaa puhul.
Prantsusmaa tööstustoodangu YoY kasv -
SideKick
ei, siis mõeldakse uus probleem välja ja saab jätkata müügiga.
AMMAN, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Syrian armoured vehicles stormed a strategic town on the main northern highway on Thursday, a resident and local activists said, in the third day of a military assault on a northwestern province bordering Turkey to crush pro-democracy unrest.
ma päris kindel ei ole, aga vaadates uudise kellaaega ja turu reaktsiooni, siis tundub, et osa viimase tunni langusest on sellega seotud -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ACTV +12.7%, (ticking higher), CSCO +11.8% (also upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich and upgraded at tier 1 firm), JAG +10.3%, IOC +5.9%, EAT +5.4%, AAP +3.8% (also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), NWSA +3.6% (light volume), PAL +2.1%, (ticking higher).
A few mining related stocks trading higher: BBL +2.5%, BHP +1.3%, VALE +1.3%.
Other news: MOTR +2.7% (modestly rebounding), AZN +2.6% (still checking for anything specific), RVBD +2.3% (ticking higher with CSCO), ETFC +1.3% (higher following insider buy), IDCC +0.4% (seeing continued strength), BIDU +0.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: ROST +3.7% (upgraded to Buy at Ticonderoga), ALTR +1.6% (early strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), BEXP +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), COF +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), SPG +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), TWO +0.6% (initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo), CREE +0.5% (Hearing tier 1 firm upgrade). -
NYTimes kohaselt kaaluvad Euroopa regulatiivorganid ajutist lühikeseks müügi keeldu
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Erko Rebane
NYTimes kohaselt kaaluvad Euroopa regulatiivorganid ajutist lühikeseks müügi keeldu
Mis nendega saab, kes juba on lühikeseks müünud? -
Initial Claims 395K vs 409K Briefing.com consensus, Prior revised to 402K from 400K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.688 mln from 3.748 mln
June Trade Balance -$53.1 bln vs -$48.0 bln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -$50.8 bln from -$50.2 bln -
rollpoiss
Erko Rebane
NYTimes kohaselt kaaluvad Euroopa regulatiivorganid ajutist lühikeseks müügi keeldu
Mis nendega saab, kes juba on lühikeseks müünud?
ei tohiks kuidagi mõjutada, sest aktsiaid saab katmiseks ikka tagasi osta. lihtsalt juurde ei saa laenata -
Reuters kirjutab, et üks Aasia pank on vähendanud Prantsuse pankade jaoks krediidiliini ja lisaks kaaluvad viis finantsasutust tekkinud vastaspoole riske. Link
The head of treasury risk management for Asia at one bank in Singapore -- which has a significant presence across the region -- said their credit lines to large French banks had been cut because of the perceived risks in lending to these counterparties. -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BGG -11.3% (ticking lower), AEG -9.7%, SODA -8.8%, OTEX -7.8%, SLE -7.6%, ENS -7.0% (light volume), GFI -2.4%, AZK -1% (also reports that it has delayed the completion of the feasibility study on the Hosco deposit of the Joanna property).
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -5.5%, STD -5.1%, BBVA -4.4%, CS -3.0%, DB -2.8%.
A few European drug names are under pressure: NVS -3.4%, SNY -3.1%.
Other news: AMSC -4.8% (announced that it has reduced its global workforce by ~30 % and its annualized expenses by ~$30 million since March 31, 2011), SF -1.6% (continued weakness; responds to the SEC lawsuit).
Analyst comments: LNC -2% and CVE -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), PXP -1.1% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman), DIS -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman). -
An Irresistible Opportunity
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
8/11/2011 8:47 AM EDT
"Chaos results when the world changes faster than people."
--Unknown
In the last five days of trading, the market has moved more than 4% four times, with three of those moves to the downside. We've had giant intraday reversals into the close the last couple of days and then crazy volatility overnight. Anyone who has been confident that they can predict what this market is going to do has ended up feeling foolish. It isn't possible to predict the short-term movements lately.
In addition to the volatility, what is particularly notable about the market action is how unprecedented much of it is. According to SentimenTrader.com, we have never had these sorts of price swings before. The closest we've come was in the 1930s.
Another stunning fact is that the action in stocks is the highest correlation ever. In other words, everything is moving together and individual stock picking is utterly useless. High-frequency and computerized trading are receiving most of the blame for this, but I'm sure that exchange-traded funds are a big part of this tendency as well.
I can go on at great length about how wild this action is, but what we really need is to find a way to deal with it. I've been advising very high levels of cash until things calm down for a couple weeks, and I see no reason to back off that position.
But what is particularly intriguing about this market is the great opportunities being created while everything is being sold aggressively. Many stocks don't deserve to be punished in this manner and will eventually bounce back, but the problem is that the irrationality and emotions of the market can keep driving them down more. There is no easy way to be confident that the selling is about to end.
Many market pundits advise that you average down aggressively into your favorite stocks as the market sinks. Unfortunately, many of them started to do this a week or so ago and will need a massive bounce just to get even.
I certainly can understand the inclination to buy into weakness. Unless the world comes to an end, many are going to bounce back very strongly and you'll be kicking yourself for not picking them up when they were bargains. Despite my inclination not to buy into downtrends, I simply can't resist nibbling at a few things myself.
Just remember: If you are going to play the bottom-fishing game, make sure you have a plan and don't commit all of your precious capital too fast. More traders have been wiped out by averaging in too much and too fast than anything else.
Invariably, what happens when you try too aggressively to catch a bottom is that the stock doesn't cooperate and then you end up panic selling because you have an emotional reaction to the big losses and simply can't handle any further downside.
The best approach is to identify your favorite stocks, stick a toe in and watch very closely as the market gyrations play out. Average in slowly and focus on buying strength rather than weakness. Don't forget that this market is crashing and we can easily continue to go lower.
One thing to keep in mind if you are holding positions is that you can always repurchase a stock, and it isn't a sin to pay a higher price than what you sold it for. Stay disciplined and don't let losses get out of control. Sometimes that means making poorly timed sales, but that is the price to protect capital. You can always buy a stock back.
European banks are in the spotlight again this morning and they are killing any hope that cropped up after the decent report from Cisco (CSCO) last night. Given the intensity of the moves lately, you have to wonder if we are close to some sort of capitulation, but the potential for another big spike to the downside is so high that it is impossible to make big moves until emotions cool.
We shall see what develops after the bell. -
Kaitseministeeriumis Tallinnas on tulistamine.
Maja ümber piiratud. -
Miski on futuure väga kiirelt -1% pealt 0,3% plussi vedanud
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Šveitsi frank euro vastu nõrgenenud 4,3% ja dollari vastu 4,14%.
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USAs hetkel korralik ralli, ootan homme balti turgudel rohelist värvi ;)
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Kui S&P 500-st ettevõttest on rohelises 499, siis Tallinnas oleks hea, kui üksainuski rohelist näitaks.
Aga lootust muidugi nagu olek, kui börsi serverid ikka hommikul tõrkuma ei hakka :)
