Börsipäev 2. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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September, mis on ajalooliselt olnud aktsiaturgude jaoks üks negatiivseimaid kuid, algas USA turgudel üle protsendise langusega. Töötleva tööstuse ISM oli oodatust parem, kui paljud olid mitteametlikult valmis nägema ka 43-45 punktist taset, ent tegelikkuses napilt üle 50 jäänud number ei viita millelegi positiivsele. Seda eriti arvestades, et kaks kuud tagasi oli ISM 55,6 ja lisaks kujunes eilse numbri suurimaks katalüsaatoriks varude kasv, mis stabiilsena püsinud uute tellimuste põhjal on negatiivseks signaaliks.
Pärast eilset ISM numbrit pöördub nüüd tähelepanu nädala kõige tähtsamale makrole, milleks on USA.s eelmisel kuul loodud töökohtade arv väljaspool põllumajandussektorit (kell 15.30). ISM-i tööhõive indeks alanes eile 1,7 punkti 51,8 punkti peale, olles madalaim tase alates 2009.a novembrist. See tingis näiteks Goldmani poolt tänase non-farm payrolli prognoosi langetamise 50K pealt 25K peale. Konsensuse prognoos on hetkel 70K peal.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,4% punases, Euroopa on avanemas -1,2-1,8% madalamal. -
EUR/CHF on taas oma tuttavat rada minemas. Vahepealsed uudised CHFi võimalikust sidumisest euroga ja lisaks Šveitsi keskpanga müük aitasid vahetuskursil kerkida augusti lõpus 1,1974 frangini. Sellest tasemest ollaks nüüd nelja päevaga -6,7% madalamal. Väga halastamatud liikumised
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NYTimes kirjutab, et valitsus on avamas järgmist peatükki pankade vastastes kohtusaagades ning Fannie ja Freddie esindajatena üritatakse tagasi saada kümneid miljardeid dollareid maksumaksja raha, mis on kaotatud hüpoteeklaenudega tagatud toodete ebakvaliteetse hindamistöö tõttu. Link
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Näed siis, eile toodud NOK ja CCJ lõpetasid plussis. :)
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NB! Infoks veel niipalju, et esmaspäeval on USA turud suletud Labor Day tõttu.
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Eurotsooni juulikuu tootjahinnaindeksid vastavalt ootustele +0,5% (M/M) ja +6,1% (Y/Y). EURUSD -0,18%.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FNSR +9.9%, CASC +5.1%, ZQK +2.2% (ticking higher, also upgraded to Outperform at Robert W. Baird), CPB +2%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SLV +2.2%, EGO +2.1%, SLW +1.8%, HL +1.7%, GOLD +1.7%, GLD +1.7%, NEM +1.6%, ABX +1.2%, GG +1.2%, RIO +0.4%.
A few optical related names trading higher following FNSR results: OCLR +5.5%, JDSU +2.2%.
Other news: GKK +12.5% (announces settlement of Gramercy Realty's $549.7 mln mezzanine loans), LIZ +6.5% (light volume, announces Mexx Joint Venture Agreement), CSTR +2.7% and DTV +0.8% (trading higher following the Netflix news).
Analyst comments: LQDT +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer). -
Doug Kass otsustas vahetult enne USA töökohtade raportit SPY-s pikaks minna:
I just paid 119.60 for spider long rental in front of jobs report -
August Nonfarm Payrolls 0 vs 70K Briefing.com consensus; July revised to 85K from 117K; June Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 20K from 53K
August Hourly Earnings -0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; July +0.4%
August Nonfarm Private Payrolls 17K vs 110K Briefing.com consensus
August Unemployment Rate 9.1% vs 9.1% Briefing.com consensus; July 9.1% -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ESL -7.9%, HRB -7.4%.
Select financial related names under pressure: BAC -6.5% (reports out indicate that more than a dozen banks to get sued by U.S.; also BAC puts Countrywide lending unit up for sale, according to story), NBG -3.7%, BCS -3.3%, ING -3.0%, DB -2.4%, C -2.1%, JPM -1.9%, WFC -1.9%.
Select mining stocks trading lower: MT -2.9%, BHP -1.2%, BBL -0.5%.
Other news: NFLX -10.8% (Starz Entertainment has ended contract renewal negotiations with Netflix), BTU -3.8% (Peabody Energy assesses Third Quarter and Full Year impacts from North Goonyella roof fall; estimated impacts include reduced shipments as well as higher costs resulting from lower production and recovery activities), NOK -2% (pulling back), AZN -1.5% (announces top-line results from SATURN study - primary efficacy measure did not reach statistical significance; secondary IVUS measure statistically significant).
Analyst comments: EV -2.8% (ticking lower, downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Ticonderoga), FDX -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse). -
Doug Kass tõstab oma pikka positsiooni SPY-s
I am adding further to Spider longs after jobs schmeissing - pressure now extreme on policy makers. -
Nelli Janson
Doug Kass tõstab oma pikka positsiooni SPY-s
I am adding further to Spider longs after jobs schmeissing - pressure now extreme on policy makers.
Kassiahastus? -
Sidelines Look Attractive
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 02, 2011
Every month that we do not have an economic recovery package, 500 million Americans lose their jobs.
-- Nancy Pelosi, Jan. 18, 2009
The unemployment situation may not be quite as bad as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi stated it was nearly two years ago, but it is still looking pretty bleak and that is weighing on the market this morning. Economists have been cutting back their predictions aggressively and market participants are understandably nervous as we await the report.
Weak economic reports out of Europe aren’t helping matters and with the long Labor Day weekend ahead, the sidelines are looking quite attractive. But what really matters right now is whether the market has already discounted bad news to some degree. Expectations are quite low and it would not be at all surprising to see the jobs number come in substantially below the stated expectations.
Unfortunately for the bulls, this market not only has plenty of negative news to contend with but it is dealing with a challenging technical picture. We had a decent bounce over the four days prior to Friday as hope of some sort of Fed action at its meeting in a few weeks took hold. However, many are skeptical that the Fed really has much ammunition left.
President Obama will be presenting a new jobs program next week, but skeptics abound: If there really is a good solution, why hasn’t it already been implemented in the last couple years? The market is not overly optimistic about any government solution at this point.
The big picture just doesn’t look very good right now and there isn’t much we can do about it other than to accept it and wait for conditions to improve. Far too often, market players can’t sit still and they rush in to prematurely bottom-fish.
There is nothing wrong with trying to snap up some bargains when the market is acting poorly, but the key to success is timing. Nothing wipes out more traders than averaging into downtrending stocks too big and too fast. Tattoo that thought on the back of your hand and keep it in mind when you start to think that the stock you loved 20% higher can’t keep on sinking.
The best advice I can give right now is to just stand aside and not do too much. I’ll be looking for some short-term trades once the jobs news is out but I have no plans to act as if the bottom is in.
I think there is a good likelihood that we will see a bounce if the market takes a hit on the jobs news, but I’m not looking for sustained upside momentum at this point.
Buckle up and strap on the trading helmet. It is going to be a rough ride. -
Šveitsi frank saab tulemustest hoogu juurde: EURCHF -2,49% ja USDCHF -2,41% (mõlema valuuta suhtes käis frank ka +3% tasemel). Austraalia dollari vastu isegi +3,25%.
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Zerohedge vahendusel võib lugeda, et Goldman on peale kehva töökohtade raportit veelgi enam veendunud, et Fedil palju valikuid enam järele jäänud pole, kui tulla lagedale QE3-ga.
BOTTOM LINE: We now look for the FOMC to announce a lengthening in the average maturity of its balance sheet at the September 20-21 meeting.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Following today’s worse-than-expected jobs report, we now look for the FOMC to announce a lengthening of the average maturity of the Fed’s balance sheet at the September 20-21 meeting, with sales of relatively short-dated Treasuries and purchases of relatively long-dated Treasuries -
ja mida see aitab?
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Ma arvan, et nii pikalt ei mõtlegi hetkel keegi ette. Hetkel on turuosaliste tähelepanu lihtsalt koondunud QE3-le ja selle ootuses turg ka liigub. Ehk siis keskendutakse pigem sellele, et kui QE3 ei tule, siis ei ole enam ühtegi õlekõrt, millest kinni haarata.
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"Many market participants continue to speculate the Fed will purchase longer dated maturities in an effort to flatten the yield curve to bring down borrowing costs. While this would likely supply some relief to homeowners it would likely hurt already stressed financial institutions that thrive when the curve is steeper" (briefing)
GSi poolt pakutud variant võimaldab Fedil lühiajalisi võlakirjasid müües finantseerida pikaajaliste võlakirjade ostu. Sellega ei peaks Fed oma bilanssi suurendama ja saaks äkki vältida sellega kaasnevat kriitikat. -
meelisq
ja mida see aitab?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=%5EFVX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=%5ETnx
vaata ja mõtle -
Vaatasin ja mõtlesin ja jõudsin sellisele järeldusele :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSEx6NelbeQ&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL1496EE8DC7433C70
:) -
luuna
Vaatasin ja mõtlesin ja jõudsin sellisele järeldusele :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSEx6NelbeQ&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL1496EE8DC7433C70
:)
väga vabandan oma soovituse eest, oleksin pidanud arvestama, et mõelda on mõtet siis kui see on harjumuspärane tegevus, muidu võibki juhtuda nii nagu kasutaja luunaga läks -
noo, kui ei oleks tundmatus kohas vette hüppajaid, ei oleks ju ka äraproovitud ujumiskohti :)
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Erko Rebane
August Nonfarm Payrolls 0 vs 70K Briefing.com consensus; July revised to 85K from 117K; June Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 20K from 53K
August Hourly Earnings -0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; July +0.4%
August Nonfarm Private Payrolls 17K vs 110K Briefing.com consensus
August Unemployment Rate 9.1% vs 9.1% Briefing.com consensus; July 9.1%
http://www.istockanalyst.com/images/articles/ADPvsNFPAug113MMA201194475.jpg
ADP private payrolls (91 000) ja Nonfarm payrolls (0) on pikaajaliselt tugevas korrelatsioonis, aga lühiajaliselt on nonfarm payrolls väga volatiilne, antud juhul on trend selgelt alla, aga arvestades nonfarm payrolls volatiilsust ei pruugi asjad olla nii halvad kui see viimane number 0 näitab,
nagu graafikult näha, siis nonfarm payrolls kipub siksakitama ADP payrolls ümber, ka augustis 2010 tegi tugeva languse läbi, et hiljem lennata taas
disclaimer: kurat seda teab kuidas seekord
