Börsipäev 28. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eilne ralli aktsiaturgudel oli võimas: Euroopas lõpetas Euro Stoxx 50 6,08% kõrgemal, CAC40 6,28% kõrgemal, DAX 5,353% kõrgemal ja FTSE100 2,89% plusspoolel. USA indeksid sulgusid avanemistasemest keskmiselt 3,1% kõrgemal. Valuutaturgudel tegi kõige võimsama tõusu Austraalia dollar, mis lõpetas päeva $1,0730 tasemel ehk 3,2% plusspoolel. Euro tegi USA dollari vastu samuti võimsa ralli, tõustes päevaga üle 2% ja jõudis maksimaalselt $1,4250 tasemeni.
Futuuride põhjal tundub, et Euroopa turud saavad ka täna tõusule jätku, kuid USA futuurid kauplevad hetkel kuni 0,4% miinuspoolel. Kas eilne eufooria kestab ka täna või hakatakse enne nädalavahetust kasumit võtma?
Makrokalendris väga olulisi sündmusi tänaseks pole. Euroopas pole peale Šveitsi KOF juhtiva indeksi midagi olulist avaldamisel. USA sessioonil avaldatakse kell 15.30 septembrikuu erasissetulekute ja -kulutuste andmed. Kell 16.55 ilmub ka Michigani ülikooli usaldusindeks, mis peaks ootuste kohaselt tõusma poole punkti võrra 58,0 punkti peale.
Euroopa eilse kokkuleppe järelkajadena on peamiseks küsimuseks ja murekohaks kokkuleppe detailide puudumine, mis loodetakse paika panna eesolevatel kuudel. FT eilne artikkel kajastab konkreetsemalt muresid Kreeka võla 50% kärpe suhtes:“More than we had expected … has been left to be finalised and detailed over the next month,” Malcolm Barr of JPMorgan wrote. “There is plenty of room to doubt whether each of the key aspects of the package will deliver.”
Potentially the most uncertain element is the deal struck with Greek bondholders for them to take a 50 per cent cut in the face value of their bonds.
Not only is the reduction in Greece’s debt dependent on almost all current bondholders participating in the plan, but the actual bond-swap which will produce the savings has not even begun to be negotiated.
“Here’s where you may be a little bit surprised, but this is where we decided to end last night,” said Charles Dallara, chief negotiator for the private bondholders.
Lisaks tekitab jätkuvalt küsimusi ka EFSFi mahu suurendamine:Because the Greek deal has not been completed, the size of the newly beefed-up rescue fund cannot be exactly calculated.
The €1,000bn that has been touted for the fund’s size is, as a result, a guesstimate based on the still-untested ability to multiply a still-unknown asset base by four to five times. “This is an approximate value,” acknowledged Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. “We don’t know yet how this works.” -
Bloomberg kirjutab, et pärast 15 kvartalit ületas USA reaalne SKP kriisieelse taseme. Viimase 10 taastumise kestus on keskmiselt olnud ca 5 kvartalit. Reaalne SKP käesoleva aasta kolmandas kvartalis oli $13.35 triljonit, 2007. aasta neljandas kvartalis oli see $13.33 triljonit. Credit Suisse peaökonmist ütles, et USA majandus on viimaks taastunud ning sisenenud laienemisfaasi. Samas on aga kasv liiga väike, et vähendada tööpuudust ja parandada eelarve puudujääki.
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Kõik Euroopa indeksid peale DAXi on punasesse vajunud. EURUSD -0,3% ja kaupleb 1,4145 juures.
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Whirlpool Corp (WHR) langetab oma 2011. aasta prognoose nõudluse vähenemise tõttu ning kavatseb 2013. aastaks vähendada kulusid $ 400 miljoni ulatuses, mis ühtlasi tähendab ka 5000 töökoha kaotamist.
Citing weaker-than-expected industry demand, Whirlpool Corp. lowered on Friday its 2011 earnings outlook to a range of $4.75 to $5.25 a share, compared with its previous estimate at the low end of the range of $7.25 to $8.25 per share. The firm said it will cut costs by $400 million by the end of 2013 via various measures, including more than 5,000 job cuts. -
The Telegraphilt eilne artikkel: Eurozone bail-out: holes emerge in the 'grand solution’ to solve EU debt crisis, kus tuuakse välja, et triljoni euroni laiendamist ootav päästefond võib üldsegi laiali pudeneda. Põhjuseks Saksamaa keskpanga hoiatus, mille kohaselt sõltub päästefond liigselt just riskikantsema iseloomuga meetmetest, mis võlakriisi põhjustasid.
Hours after an all-night summit of euro governments ended, flaws began to emerge in a package that was billed as a “grand and comprehensive” solution to the European debt crisis.
The concerns were led by Germany’s powerful central bank, which expressed fears that a plan to leverage a €440 billion eurozone rescue fund to amass a “fire power” of €1 trillion, or £880 billion, resembled the risky finance methods that triggered the crisis in 2008.
Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank and a member of the European Central Bank, sounded the alarm over the plan to “leverage” the fund by a factor of four to five times without putting any new money into the pot.
He warned that the scheme could be hit by market turbulence with taxpayers left holding the bill for risky investments in Italian and Spanish bonds.
“It is tied to higher risks of losses and to increased sharing of risks,” said Mr Weidmann. “The way they are constructed, the leveraging instruments are not too different from those which were partly responsible for creating the crisis, because they concealed risks.”
Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, said the eurozone rescue would be a temporary fix for markets and that the fund could pose a high-risk for investors.
“No bazooka but should stabilize markets for now,” he messaged on the Twitter site yesterday. “Watch out if the plan is a giant SIV (structured investment vehicle) with levered risk.” -
Väike informatiivne teadaanne: teatavasti läheb Eesti sel pühapäeval üle talveajale, aga USA teeb seda nädal aega hiljem ehk 6. novembril. Seega tuleks arvestada, et järgmisel nädalal (31.10 - 4.11) toimub USA turgudel regulaarajal kauplemine vahemikus 15:30-22.00.
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Ja et segadus oleks veelgi suurem, siis Venemaa otsustas sellel aastal talveajale mitte üle minna ning seega algab Venemaal kauplemine kell 8.00 ja kestab kuni 16.45.
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Kas ESFS loogika ja võimendamise taktika pole sama kui TARP puhul? Ega neil ka polnud seda raha reaalselt, vaid võimekus seda koheslt käikulasta.
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Tulemuste tabelis on nüüd kõik käesoleva nädala teatajad oma majandusnäitajad kirja saanud.
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September Personal Income +0.1% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus
September Personal Spending +0.6% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NANO -17.4% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray ), INPH -12.1% (thinly traded), WHR -10.5%, NUVA -10.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), QLIK -9.9%, AMKR -8.9%, DRIV -8.7%, IPCM -8.7% (light volume), CSTR -7.9%, ARBA -7.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum), JBSS -6.7% (light volume), PMCS -6.4% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), LEG -5.8%, CTCT -5.8% (light volume), TSYS -5.6% (light volume), EXPE -5.1%, ERTS -4.1%, SNP -3.8% (ticking lower), PWER -3.7%, VAR -2.6%, SHOR -2.5%, TOT -2.4%, NTGR -1.9% (light volume), INSP -1.2%, ACI -1.1%.
M&A related: YHOO -1.6% (Progress on Yahoo Buyout has stopped, according to reports).
A few financial related names showing weakness: ING -6.7%, RBS -6.5%, UBS -1.4%.
Select oil/gas stocks trading lower: RDS.A -2.1%, TOT -2%, SDRL -2%, E -1.7%, BP -1.6%.
Other news: MF -23.8% (MF Global struggling to stay afloat, scrambling to sell all or part of its business, according to reports), GTU -4.3% (announced that it plans to offer Units totaling $1 bln of Central GoldTrust to the public in Canada and in the United States).
Analyst comments: KWK -5.3% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO), VMED -4.1% (removed from Pan Europe Conviction Buy List at Goldman), VLY -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel ), ED -2.2% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC Capital, downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), SCHN -1.8% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), HPY -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), PLL -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), FTI -1% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), BMY -0.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole). -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ALGN +13.4%, CLF +8.4%, HLIT +7.5%, (ticking higher), BIDU +7.4%, SWC +6.4%, IPG +6.3%, (light volume), TORM +6%, GT +5.7%, AMD +4.7%, (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), LVS +3.5%, QTM +3.4%, (light volume), VRTX +3.3%, DECK +2.9%, VRSN +2.4% (light volume), EXEL +2.4% (light volume), STMP +2.3% (light volume), ELGX +2.3%, MRK +2%, BIIB +1.9%, CERN +1.7%, TEN +1.7% (ticking higher), WY +0.9% (light volume), NEM +0.6%.
Select silver related names trading higher: SLV +4.2%, SLW +1.4%, SSRI +0.8%.
China internet related names getting boost following BIDU results: YOKU +3.4%, DANG +2.7%, SINA +1.5%.
Other news: CLWR +15.2% (shares trading higher by 16% pre-market as co is close to new deal with Sprint, according to reports), FMS +2.6% (still checking), HOT +1.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MGM +1% (boosted by LVS results).
Analyst comments: S +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie). -
Human Genome trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to renewed takeover chatter
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Kui USA reaalne SKP on kriisieelsel tasemel siis küsiks, et kui kaugel Eesti SKP jääb väiksemaks kriisieelsest? Meiegi juu langesime sinna 2004-2005 aastasse.
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AlariÜ
October Consumer Confidence 39.8 vs 46.0 Briefing.com consensus; September 45.4
consumer confidence tuli esmaspäeval, nüüd siis on samuti tarbijausaldust mõõtev Michigan Sentiment Index väljas, tarbija ei tea enam ise ka kas asjad on head või halvad, mida siis veel investor peaks tegema? :)
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' final October consumer sentiment index rose to 60.9 from 57.5 in the preliminary October report, according to a report released on Friday -
Ise küsin ise vastan. SKP numbrite järgi seal 2007 aastas.
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Kuidas Google raha teenib?
Hea graafiline pilt:
http://awesomeinfographics.com/2011/10/how-does-google-make-money/ -
Henno Viires
AlariÜ
October Consumer Confidence 39.8 vs 46.0 Briefing.com consensus; September 45.4
consumer confidence tuli esmaspäeval, nüüd siis on samuti tarbijausaldust mõõtev Michigan Sentiment Index väljas, tarbija ei tea enam ise ka kas asjad on head või halvad, mida siis veel investor peaks tegema? :)
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' final October consumer sentiment index rose to 60.9 from 57.5 in the preliminary October report, according to a report released on Friday
Tarbija dilemmast Washington Post'is: Next to nothing: Americans find tiny returns on savings and decide to spend -
Finance Addict on teinud hea ülevaate sellest, kuidas Kreeka võla defaultimise vastu kindlustanud investorid jäävad tõenäoliselt tühjade pihkudega. Artiklis mainitud ISDA, kes CDSide väljamakstavuse üle otsustab, avaldas ise paar päeva tagasi ametliku pöördumise, kus toodi juba välja, et kuna tegemist on "vabatahtliku" 50% võla mahakirjutamisega, siis ei kuulu kindlustusraha hetke seisuga väljamaksmisele. Olukorra teeb huvitavaks see, mis institutsioonid ISDA otsuseid teevad.
The ISDA Determinations Committee will have the final word but will only weigh in if a market participant requests a ruling. And I do believe that somebody, somewhere is gonna request a ruling. The vote that wins an 80% majority of the Determinations Committee’s members will carry the day. So who’s on this mighty committee that has the power to affect the worth of hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, move global markets and make the leaders of 27 countries tremble like a dried leaf in a hurricane?
Täpsemalt saab Kreeka võla eripäradest lugeda artiklist. -
See "vabatahtlik mahakandmine" on ikka täielik müstika. Kas tõesti on need Kreeka võlapaberid ainult saastapankade käes, kes on valmis milleks iganes, kui vaid keskpank laseks edasi tegutseda ja pappi peale pritsiks.
Ma ei ole suutnud siiani kusagilt leida ühtegi argumenti, mis sunniks ühte normaalset Kreeka võlakirja omajat sellele "vabatahtlikkusele" alluma.
Ja niipalju kui ma aru saan, siis tegelikult nii ongi, et kes ostis turult 50%-se turuhinnaga võlapaberi ja sellele "vabatahtlikkusele" ei allu, see saab rahulikult tähtaja saabudes 100%. Not bad at all... -
Bank participation in voluntary write-downs of Greek debt will be "very high", Charles Dallara, the head of the International Finance Institute (IIF) said on Saturday. "I think it is too early to say (the exact percentage) and we have not determined exactly all the terms and conditions for the exchange. However, I am certain the participation will be very high," Dallaras said in an interview to Ethnos newspaper.
Ahah, sellest kõigest tuleb veel eraldi korralik teatrietendus ilmselt. -
Kuna Kreeka puhul on nüüd pretsedent loodud (võlast vabaks ilma tagasimaksmata) mis peaks sundima Portugali, Itaaliat või Hispaaniat ninast veri väljas pingutama. Selge, et väikesele Kreekale anti selline kingitus siis suuremate võlglastena oleks neil veel tugevam positsioon kuna eurol nende puhul veel rohkem kaotada ja ilmselt siis ka USA ja Hiina ka õlga alla panemas.
Ilmselt küll kärbitakse aga nii vähe kui võimalik ja niipalju kui vajalik ning lõpuks kirjutatakse 50% korstnasse ja kõik jälle õnnelikud, et majandus päästetud
