Börsipäev 6. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eilset turgu domineeris positiivne toon, seda eriti perifeeria riikide võlakirjaturgudel, kus yieldid tegid läbi märkimisväärse languse ning jõudsid madalaimale tasemele alates oktoobrist. Osaliselt oli selle taga Itaalia 30 miljardi euro suuruse kärpekava avalikustamine (eeldatavalt kiidetakse parlamendi poolt heaks enne jõule) ning Merkeli ja Sarkozy esinemised, millest õhkus kindlust, et reedel ollakse Euroopa ees konkreetse plaaniga. Mõlema arvates oleks parim variant, kui aluslepingute muutused kinnitaksid kõik Euroopa Liidu maad, kuid kõrvale ei lükatud ka varianti, kus nõusoleku annavad 17 euroala riiki. Ühist toetust näidati üles automaatsete sanktsioonide suhtes, kui mõni euroala riik ei suuda 3%list eelarvedefitsiidi nõuet täita. Peale selle tõdeti, et erasektor ei peaks osalema tulevikus riikide päästmisel (va Kreeka) ning ESM tuleks ellu kutsuda juba järgmisel aastal. Sarkozy sõnul otsustatakse reedel Euroopa edasine suund ning aluslepingute muutmise osas võidakse kokkuleppele jõuda märtsiks.
Mis aga rikkus eile pisut pidu USA börsidel ja täna Aasias, kuid töötab ilmselt eduka katalüsaatorina Euroopa ametnike jaoks enne reedest tippkohtumist, oli S&P otsus asetada 15 eurotsooni riiki negatiivse krediidiväljavaate peale. Agentuur tõi pressiteates välja peamise põhjusena poliitikute ebapiisava progressi finantskriisi ohjamisel, mis võib peegeldada struktuurset nõrkust otsustusprotsessides nii eurotsoonis kui terves Euroopas. S&P sõnul võivad nad Saksamaa, Soome, Hollandi, Austria, Belgia ja Luksemburgi puhul reitingut langetada maksimaalselt ühe pügala võrra, ent Prantsusmaa ja teiste euroala liikmete puhul isegi kahe silma jagu. S&P lubas teha otsuse reitingute langetamise või mittelangetamise osas võimalikult kiiresti peale ELi tippkohtumist, sõltudes ühtlasi sellest, mida teeb EKP oma neljapäevasel miitingul.
Fookus püsib täna ilmselt Merkeli/Sarkozy kommentaaride ja S&P eilse otsuse järelkajal, eriti kuna makrokalender jääb suhteliselt õhukeseks. Viimase osas tooks välja eurotsooni kolmanda kvartalis SKT muutuse (kell 12.00) ja Saksamaa oktoobri tehaste tellimused (kell 13.00).
USA indeksite futuurid kuaplevad hetkel poole protsendi jagu miinuses, Euroopa on aga avanemas ca 1% madalamal. -
Kuna S&P ähvardab ka EFSFi elu raskemaks muuta, siis näib, et finantseerimisel tõusetuvad tugevamalt esile IMF ja EKP. Bundesbank on aga tänase raporti kohaselt sellele tugevalt vastu ning väidetavalt pole ka USA appi tulemas.
According to a report, Bundesbank is against using new IMF funding directly for EFSF, and US won't participate in boosting IMF funds -
David Rosenberg leiab, et USA tarbija tunneb varsti suurest tänupühajärgsest ostlemisest pohmelli ning et jaemüüjad suutsid rahvast kohale meelitada korralike allahindlustega, mis söövad marginaale.
Credit card usage was quite rampant on Black Friday — it outstripped cash and debit-card payment by more than a two-to-one ratio. But when the bills come in early in the New Year, look for a bit of a consumer pullback — another risk to the Q1 outlook (especially if we wake up on December 17th and realize that Congress has recessed without extending last year's tax goodies into 2012 — see House G.O.P. Is Divided On Extension of Payroll Tax on page All of the Saturday NYT).
Despite all the hoopla over Thanksgiving, total chain store sales only came in +3.2% YoY in November, which was light versus consensus expectations and far slower than the 5.5% pace of a year ago. Volumes may have been blown out, but the retailers cannibalized their margins with the widespread promotional activity (Have a look at In Bargain Aisle, a Squeeze on Margins on page Cl of today's WSJ). Not only that but one-third of the retail universe missed their sales targets last month. And guess what item was the hottest seller in the post-Thanksgiving sales rush? Try ... hand guns: a record 32% YoY pace (to 129,166 — based on FBI background checks). All of a sudden, being a bank teller or gas station attendant just became a tad less safe. -
Eurotsooni kolmanda kvartali SKT muutus ootuspärane
Eurozone GDP SA (Q3 P) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
Eurozone GDP SA (Q3 P) Y/Y 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%) -
Saksamaa tehaste tellimused tegid oktoobris korraliku põrke, olles eelneval kuul näidanud -4,6%list MoM langust.
German Factory Orders NSA (Oct) Y/Y 5.4% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.4%, Rev. to 2.2%)
German Factory Orders SA (Oct) M/M 5.2% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -4.3%, Rev. to -4.6%) -
Euroopa pidi ju juba sügavas majanduslanguses olema? Kas sakslased tahavad jälle peo ära rikkuda?
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Peost rääkides on vist tegmist sellise veidra perekonnaga, kus üks füürer on kõva tööloom, aga suur osa ülejäänud ,, pereliikmeid,, armastab varajaste hommikutundideni pidu käristada:)
Varem/ hiljem peaks selline mudel kusagilt üle keema. -
Täna on analüütikud positiivsete kommentaaridega väljas LinkedIn (LNKD) kohta.
Morgan Stanley nimetab aktsia oma RTI -ks (Research Tactical Idea) koos $ 100 hinnasihiga.
This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. LinkedIn shares have traded down -20% from its pre-follow-on price level. While the pro forma float is more than 4x the original post-IPO float, we believe there is demand for LinkedIn shares given the strong business fundamentals and long-term growth prospects. CQ3:11 earnings and guidance both came in above expectations despite the relatively weaker macro environment.
We estimate that there is about an 80%+ or "highly likely" probability for the scenario.
Analüütikud prognoosivad, et järgmise kuu aja jooksul LNKD aktsia hind tõuseb ja seda 80%-lise tõenäosusega.
Morgan Stanely sõnul on aktsiahind kukkunud atraktiivsele tasemele ja vaatamata sellele, et turul on võrreldes IPO-ga 4x rohkem aktsiaid, usuvad nad, et nõudlust neile jagub. Firma kolmanda kvartali tulemused olid oodatust paremad ja seda vaatamata nõrgale makrokeskkonnale.
Lisaks Morgan Stanleyle tõstab täna JP Morgan LNKD-i reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale.
Kuigi väitesse, et LNKD aktsia hinnatase on muutunud atraktiivsek/ssoodsaks (aktsia kaupleb endiselt ligi 150x oma 2012. aasta prognoositavat kasumit), tuleks suhtuda skeptiliselt, siis kauplemise seisukohast saab LNKD täna tõenäoliselt turuosaliste tähelepanu, sest kaks TIER 1 maja on aktsiat toetamas.
Eelturul kaupleb LNKD 3,8% plusspoolel, $ 72,6 kandis. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NNN +2%, MMM +1.3%.
M&A related: THOR +4.2% (trading ~1 point higher following reports that investor suggesting the co seek alternatives) .
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: RIG +2%, SD +1.2%, RDS.A +0.9%, BP +0.9% (BP accused Halliburton of destroying evidence related to Gulf oil spill, according to reports), SDRL +0.3%.
A few European drug names are trading modestly higher: NVS +0.8%, GSK +0.7%.
Other news: FRO +27.1% and SFL +2.4% (Ship Finance Intl adjusts agreement with a recapitalized Frontline), PPHM +18% (says Bavituximab shows 50% improvement in overall tumor response rate in randomized Phase II lung cancer trial), NATH +5.9% (to commence Dutch Auction tender offer to repurchase up to 500,000 shares of its outstanding common stock), ONE +4.7% (will replace National Retail Properties in the S&P SmallCap 600 index ), +4.2% (still checking), CY +2.7% and FLR +0.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MDW +2.4% (announces third quarter progress at its Spring Valley project based on information provided by Barrick Gold Exploration), LEAP +1.4% (Leap enters into spectrum transactions with Verizon Wireless), AGO +1% (Director Wilbur Ross discloses buying 2,464,184 shares at $10.99-11.35 on 12/1-12/2, worth ~$27.6 mln), EXPE +1% (signs new multi-year agreement with United Airlines).
Analyst comments: GE +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein), E +1.2% (light volume, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DRI -8.1%.
Other news: EXAS -4.9% (announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of ~3.125 mln shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $8.00 per share), NS -4.5% (NuStar Energy announced a 5.25 mln common unit offering), CLWR -4.4% (announces public offering of common stock), CAKE and EAT -1.2% (ticking lower following DRI results).
Analyst comments: HUN -2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), IR -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee) -
S&P teatas, et ka EFSFi AAA-reiting on ohus:
Standard & Poor's places EFSF long-term AAA ratings on CreditWatch Negative
From S&P: EFSF LONG-TERM RATING MAY BE CUT BY 1 OR 2 LEVELS ON REVIEW -
Tune Out the Noise
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Dec 06, 2011 | 8:52 AM EST
"Don't find fault, find a remedy; anybody can complain." --Henry Ford
I've spent quite a bit of time recently writing about the challenges of this market. Despite a huge move over the last six days, it has not been an easy market to trade. All the profits have occurred overnight; there has been no clear leadership or exceptional areas of speculation, charts and entry points have not developed well and we have gone from oversold to overbought in a blink.
Typically, the best way for a stock market pundit to handle market action like this is to celebrate how wonderful it is and to make it sound like the river of gains is overwhelming. It is interesting how often a commentator who was bearish at the lows now makes it sound like he was never on the wrong side of the market. Making it sound like you never had a losing trade actually fools quite a few readers.
While writing about how much you like the market and how well you are doing can create a great image for public relations purposes, it isn't helpful for readers who are trying to navigate the market. A reader who is having a hard time doesn't want to hear about how well others are doing. They want to know what they can do differently and how they can be in better tune with the market action.
Don't let anyone fool you into thinking that just because the market went straight up for six days that it is easy to rack up huge gains. It is great if you are a buy-and-hold type that was feeling anxious a week or so ago, but you more than likely just recouped losses rather than made profits. If you were correctly defensive a short time ago, it was nearly impossible to suddenly turn so bullish that you would ride four gaps in six days. Even if you caught the original turn and made some good money any prudent trader would have likely taken some profits too early.
I've heard from an unusually high number of traders who are feeling discouraged lately. When the market is going down and you aren't doing much, you have the comfort of relative outperformance. However, in the current environment it is just the opposite. Not only do you struggle to make actual gains but you have the added insult of underperforming even when you are making money.
For me, the number one challenge of this market has been to adapt to a situation where determining market direction is more important than individual stock picking. My primary edge in the market has always come from finding good stocks at an early point. Timing the market was secondary, as good stock picks would tend to perform even with the broader market was not acting so well.
That has changed recently. Part of it is due to exchange-traded funds, which are all about direction bets and computerized trading and tends to push huge baskets of stocks one way or the other without regard to individual fundamentals. As a result, stocks are highly correlated now and they all move together in one direction or the other. There are few strong leaders and not many themes since all that really matters is the overall direction of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).
There are still good individual stock picks to be found, but it is much more selective and narrow. Also, time frames are shorter and if you catch a good move, you can't overstay your welcome.
I'm working hard to develop new ways of approaching this market but I don't expect it to be easy. The reason the market is so potential lucrative is because it is such a challenge.
I'm going to continue to point out the challenges and difficulties I see and report the mood of traders who are trying to deal with this market. It isn't what it used to be and we need to embrace that fact as we look for new ideas. -
Risto Sverdlik
S&P teatas, et ka EFSFi AAA-reiting on ohus:Standard & Poor's places EFSF long-term AAA ratings on CreditWatch Negative
From S&P: EFSF LONG-TERM RATING MAY BE CUT BY 1 OR 2 LEVELS ON REVIEW
No ma ei tea, kas ainult mulle tundub see tõmblemine enne tippkohtumist tragikoomiline... -
Samas on see tõmblemine hea, sunnib poliitliidreid võtma vastu otsuseid, mitte jooma liitrite viisi kohvi ja laskma välja sooja õhku.
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SideKick
Samas on see tõmblemine hea, sunnib poliitliidreid võtma vastu otsuseid, mitte jooma liitrite viisi kohvi ja laskma välja sooja õhku.
Pigem võib see tekitada see vastupidise reaktsiooni - a la ei hakka me siin midagi mingi S&P hirmutamise all teisiti tegema, me oleme ikkagi EL, jms. Prantslaste uhkus ja sakslaste pedantsus on ju hästi teada. -
Minumeelest ei ole. ECB ei astu mängu enne kui saab mingi mõistliku lahenduse tunnistajaks olla. Kindel võlapiir, varade müük, defitsiidi kaotavad eelarvekärped, keskse võimuga EU fiskaal-liit, unit labour cost korrigeerimine ja sisemine devalveerimine vmt valitsuste vabal valikul ette võetav. Oluliselt tragikoomilisem oli eile uudistes näidatav Itaalia mingi sotsiaalminister kes 30 bn EUR kärbete väljakuulutamisel rahva koledatele kannatustele mõeldes lausa nuttis. PIIGS poliitikud on liiga udud et ilma hirmutamiseta stabiilsust saavutada. 2 aastat juba näeme kuidas poliitikud probleeme lahendavad.
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momentum
Minumeelest ei ole. ECB ei astu mängu enne kui saab mingi mõistliku lahenduse tunnistajaks olla. Kindel võlapiir, varade müük, defitsiidi kaotavad eelarvekärped, keskse võimuga EU fiskaal-liit, unit labour cost korrigeerimine ja sisemine devalveerimine vmt valitsuste vabal valikul ette võetav. Oluliselt tragikoomilisem oli eile uudistes näidatav Itaalia mingi sotsiaalminister kes 30 bn EUR kärbete väljakuulutamisel rahva koledatele kannatustele mõeldes lausa nuttis. PIIGS poliitikud on liiga udud et ilma hirmutamiseta stabiilsust saavutada. 2 aastat juba näeme kuidas poliitikud probleeme lahendavad.
Poliitikud ei ole udud vaid tahavad tagasi valitud saada. Probleem ei ole ju selles, et ei saada aru, mida teha tuleks. -
Tead, mina ei usu enam seda, et poliitikud udud ei ole.
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Headlines crossing that Euro Zone may eliminate EUR 500 bln lending cap; negotiating boost to bailout funds
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Oncothyreon (ONTY) tõuseb täna võimsalt. Firma phase-III ravimi Stimuvaxi triali lõppemiseni peaks veel paar kuud aega olema, kuid Yahoo foorumites lingiti juba töökuulutustele, kus Merck Kga USA tütarfirma (EMD Serono) palkab "2 peatselt heakskiidetava vähiravimi" turuletoomiseks töötajaid. Spekuleeritakse, et üks neist on ONTY Stimuvax. Mercki ja Oncothyreoni seob litsentsileping. Selles mõttes on (juhul kui phase-III muidugi accepti saab) firma oma konkurendist Dendreonist paremas olukorras, et neil on tugev partnerlus maailmaklaasi ravimitootja Merckiga (Saksa Merckiga, mitte samanimelise USA firmaga) ja eeluuringute järgi on Stimuvax ka palju tõhusam (mõõdik: keskmine eluea pikendamine) kui Provenge.
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Nii kui hundist räägid, DNDN halted :)
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DNDN uudis:
Dendreon agrees to sell VICTRELIS royalty interest for $125 million (8.80 0.00)
Co announced that it has agreed to sell for $125 million in cash its royalty interest related to intellectual property licensed to Merck's (MRK) Schering-Plough and Schering Corporation and associated with VICTRELIS (boceprevir), a treatment for chronic hepatitis C. -
Netflix spikes down ~$1, following headlines that Verizon (VZ) is planning to launch a video streaming service similar to Netflix
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Võimalik, et David Cameron räägib seda valijatele ja UK euroskeptikutele. David Cameron lubas seada veto EU alusleppe muudatustele, kui seal pole UK huvisid kaistud.
David Cameron has said he will not sign any reworked EU treaty designed to solve the eurozone crisis if it does not contain safeguards to protect British interests. The prime minister said there must be protection for the single market and the UK financial services sector.
"If they choose to use the European treaty to do that then obviously there will be British safeguards and British interests that I will want to insist on, and I won't sign a treaty that doesn't have those safeguards in it." -
Merkel ja Sarkozy ütlesid ju selgelt, et Euroopa Liit võib ka olla väiksem kui 27 riiki. Kellele meie liivakasti reeglid ei sobi, mängigu oma liivakastis üksi.
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Cameron lihtsalt kuulutab, mida konservatiivid talt ootavad. Samas teab ta ka väga hästi, et euro lagunemise puhul saab ühtlasi Briti finantsektor korralikult pihta.
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FT näitab näpuga Saksamaa-Prantsusmaa teljel kui esimesi, kes 2003 aastal eelarvedefitsiidi reeglit rikkusid. Neil on vähemalt oidu tunnistada, et see käis Gordon Brown heakskiidul. 8 aastaga see kriis küll nii hulluks ei saa minna. Need probleemid on pigem kobrutanud kui esmatähtaja ületanud kooresalat, millele lisati uus kiht manti.
Who originally broke the EU fiscal rules? France and Germany
But which two countries first broke the rule that deficits should not go above 3 per cent of GDP? It was France and Germany, back in 2003. What’s more, the two then united to make sure that they wouldn’t face sanctions for doing so –effectively destroying the rules (known as the “growth and stability pact”) altogether. What’s more, they were supported in this action by the UK (otherwise known as the country that like to lecture others on fiscal discipline). Gordon Brown was chancellor at the time. -
Briti valitsusliikmete Euroliidu- ja euro pideva materdamise võtab filigraanselt kokku järgmine lugejakommentaar FTst.
One of the many benefits of freedom of speech and expression in the internet is the opportunity to express your opinion on any subject no matter how ignorant or little Englander you may be.
