Börsipäev 20. jaanuar
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Öösel avaldatud HSBC Hiina PMI indeks jäi jaanuaris praktiliselt muutumatuks, tõustes 0,1 punkti võrra 48,8 punktile, kuid indeksi komponentidest tõusetub esile uute tellimuste märkimisväärne paranemine ja varude ning toodangu vähenemine, mis võiks viidata, et nõrkus tuleneb varude korrigeerimisest, samas nõudlus näitab paranemise märke.
Makro pool jääb täna võrdlemisi õhukeseks, kui suuremat huvi võiks pakkuda Suurbritannia detsembri jaemüügi muutus ning USA detsembri olemasolevate majade müük kell 17.00. -
FT vahendab täna Morgan Stanley analüüsi, milles on esmakordselt välja toodud, millised pangad olid EKP laenu suurimad kasutajad. Esikolmiku moodustavad Itaalia pangad Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo ja Monte dei Paschi di Siena, kes laenasid kokku ca 35 miljardit eurot. Kokku laenasid Itaalia finantsasutused üle 50 miljardi euro, mis moodustab üle 90% nende 2012 finantseerimisvajadusest. Ühtlasi torkab artiklis silma Morgan Stanley analüütiku kommentaar, et kõige hullem osa eurotsooni kriisist võib olla juba selja taga, mis on natuke üllatav võttes arvesse siiani konsensusest selgelt negatiivsemat seiskukohta Euroopa selle aasta väljavaate osas. Ehkki tänu LTROle võib pankadel olla nüüd likviidust piisavalt, siis jätkuvalt tuleb neil üsna korralikult omakapitali suurendada, mida hetkel eurotsooni nõrgenev majanduskeskkond järjest vähem soosib.
He also expressed hope that the worst of the eurozone crisis was over, praising the “conviction, determination and realism” with which it was being tackled by policymakers. Bank equity and bond markets performed strongly on Thursday -
General Electric jäämas müügitulude poolel korralikult alla. Aktsia eelturul -3%
General Electric prelim $0.39 vs $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $37.97 bln vs $40.08 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Eile õhtul teatas Google (GOOG) oma kvartalitulemused, mis jäid nii kasumi kui käibe osas konsensuse ootustele alla. Aktsia reageeris tulemustele -8%-lise langusega.
Täna on enamus suuri analüüsimajasid ka oma kommentaaridega väljas. Kuigi osad majad kärbivad GOOG-li hinnasihti ja kasumiprognoose siis jäädakse endiselt ettevõtte perspektiivi osas positiivseks.
Credit Suisse kinnitab oma Osta reitingut koos $ 700 hinnasihiga ja ütleb, et käibelangus oli tingutud eelkõige valuutakursi kõikumistest ja nõrgast Euroopa turust.
We believe the revenue shortfall in 4Q11 can be attributed to 2 factors: 1.) a 300bp tougher comparison, which matched the F/X neutral revenue deceleration and 2.) some macro-related softness in Europe (e.g., Germany). That being said, longer term growth drivers remain intact, including display advertising ($5b annual run-rate, up from $2.5b in 3Q10), mobile (Android activations of 700k/day vs. 550k/day), and, potentially, Google+ (90m users vs. 40m in 3Q11).
RBC Capital Markets soovitab antud tasemetelt GOOG aktsiaid osta koos $ 800 hinnasihiga.
Google missed consensus revenue and EPS for 4Q, primarily based on tough comps, FX, several non-recurring items, and Street mis-modeling. We continue to view Google as a must-own name in the Internet space, and at 10.6x EPS ex-cash, would add to positions on the pullback. We maintain our Outperform rating and price target of $800.
Ka Citi analüütikud jäävad oma Osta reitingu juurde koos $ 680 hinnasihiga ja ütlevad, et paljud segmendid nagu mobiil, display-reklaamid ja Youtube on alles oma kasvu alguses.
Positives: 1) Revenue growth decel right-in-line with comps; 2) EBITDA and Operating Margins stabilizing; 3) High-Growth Display and Mobile segments now on track to reach 25% of total revenue in 2012, which almost guarantees 20%+ Organic Revenue growth for the foreseeable future. Negatives: 1) a miss is a miss; 2) excessive volatility in Paid Click & (weak) CPC metrics … this remains one big black box; 3) maybe all that FX hedging effort wasn’t such a good idea after all.
Deutsche Banki analüütikud jätkavad samuti GOOG katmist Osta reitinguga ja koos $ 645 hinnasihiga ja näevad peamise kasvumootorina just display –reklaami.
Rapidly gaining market share in display advertisingGoogle reported its display revenues are over $5bn annualized, up 2x from its last disclosure last year, driven by YouTube and DoubleClick Ad Exchange, which was up 130% YoY. Our conversations with marketers suggest Google can continue to gain share versus portals with less sophisticated technology and less breadth
Morgan Stanley kärbib GOOG hinnasihi $ 642 pealt $ 590 peale ja kinnitab oma Hoia reitingut.
Analüütikute arvates sõltub firma edasine käekäik suures osas allolevatest küsimustest:
Kas suured investeeringud (personal, reklaam) tasuvad ära? Kas sotsiaalmeedia portaalid kujutavad endast reaalset ohtu? Kas konkurendid nagu Bing, Baidu ja Yandex kasvatavad oma koduturgudel turuosa.
Eelturul kaupleb GOOG $ 591 kandis, 7,5% miinuspoolel. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CLGX +10%, SWKS +9%, ZOLL +4% (light volume), MSFT +3%, IBM +2.6%, IBKR +1.8%, INTC +0.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Kaufman Bros).
M&A related: ASIA +10.9% (announces receipt of "going private" proposal), KGC +1.2% (light volume, Kinross Gold may be M&A target after overpaying for Mauritanian mine, Newmont Mining may be interested, according to reports).
A few European financial related names showing strength: BCS +3.9%, RBS +3.9%, HBC +0.9%, DB +0.6%.
Other news: GALE +11.3% (ticking higher, initiates patient enrollment in NeuVax Phase 3 PRESENT trial to prevent breast cancer recurrence), MPC +4.6% (Jana Partners discloses 5.5% stake in 13D filing; had discussions with management), CTIC +1.8% (expects the EMA Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use may issue an opinion on the Marketing Authorization Application Pixuvri in Mid-February), CLD +3% (to be added to S&P 600), SNN +3% (still checking), DANG +2.3% (still checking), VOD +1.1% (Vodafone PLC wins dispute against India about $2.2 bln tax bill, according to reports).
Analyst comments: NE +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NCIT -19.7% (also downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), GOOG -7.9%, COF -5.8%, PH -4.7%, ISRG -4.7%, FITB -3.4%, EZPW -2.9%, GE -2.7%, AXP -2.4%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading modestly lower: MT -3.3%, AUQ -1.4%, GLD -0.7%, SLW -0.8%, SLV -0.6%, BBL -0.5%.
A few European drug names are trading lower: NVS -2.6% AZN -1.0%, SNY -0.8%.
Oil/gas related names showing early weakness: BP -2.5%, TOT -2.2%, STO -1.4%, RDS.A -1.3%, E -0.7%.
A few GOOG internet related peers are under pressure: BIDU -1.2%, SINA -1.2%, SOHU -0.7%.
Other news: ALTH -15.7% (ticking lower, receives negative opinion from the CHMP on FOLOTYN ), HTGC -4.6% (announces public offering of common stock), ZIOP -4.5% (intends to commence an underwritten public offering of shares of its common stock; All of the shares in the proposed offering are to be sold by ZIOPHARM), MMLP -4.2% (announces 2.3 mln share common units offering), BWP -4.1% (announces public offering of 8 mln units), CCL -4% (announces comprehensive audit and review of safety and emergency response across all its cruise lines), ARCC -3.7% (announces public offering), WLL -3% (announces 2011 year-end reserves, provides 2012 production and capital spending guidance, and updates 2011 guidance), SQNM -2.4% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), AONE -2.2% (announces registered direct offering of common stock and warrants), AMZN -1.7% (still checking for anything specific), V -0.6% (lower with COF and AXP).
Analyst comments: VOC -6.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), JCI -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham), SLXP -1.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel), PG -0.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), SAP -0.4% (downgraded to Hold from Add at Commerzbank ). -
December Existing Home Sales 4.61 mln vs 4.55 mln Briefing.com consensus
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VIX kukub jätkuvalt suure hooga. Mida asjatundjad selle kohta ütlevad - vaikus enne tormi?
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Lõpetati jälle päeva tippude juures - minu arvates on see pullide jaoks hea märk.
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Kõik ootavad hinge kinnipidades, kes vaigistab muusika. Kreeka võlausaldajate kohtumine läks pekki.
Esmaspäeval saame punast näha. Siiani on liiga ilus, et tõsi olla. Tundub
