Börsipäev 9. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Päris lõpliku kokkuleppeni Kreeka poliitilised liidrid eile ei jõudnud, kui nõusolek anti kõikidele troika nõudmistele peale pensionikärbete. Papademos üritab seetõttu lahendada küsimust troikaga, leidmaks 300 miljoni euro ulatuses täiendavaid säästumeetmeid, et vältida lisapensionite ja avaliku sektori töötajate pensionite 15%list vähendamist. Väidetavalt peab kokkulepe olema sõlmitud kõige hilisemalt järgmise nädala keskpaigaks, et siis 20. märtsi 14,5 miljardi euro suuruse võlakohustuse lunastamise tähtajaks paberimajandusega ühele poole jõuda.
Lisaks Kreeka teemale on täna igakuist intressimäära otsust langetamas nii Inglise (kl 14.00) kui Euroopa keskpank (kl 14.45). Esimese puhul oodatakse võlakirjade ostuprogrammi suurendamist, teise puhul kuulatakse pigem kl 15.30 algavat pressikonverentsi, kus huviorbiidis on tõenäoliselt järgmise LTRO ootused ning EKP osalemine Kreeka võla restruktureerimises. Makro poolel avalikustatakse kell 11.30 Suurbritannia detsembri tööstustoodang ning kell 15.30 USA esmaste töötuabiraha taotlejate muutus eelmisel nädalal.
USA indeksite futuurid on kauplemas kerges miinuses. -
Öösel avalikustatud Hiina jaanuarikuu inflatsioon kujunes oodatust veidi kiiremaks (4,5% vs prognoositud 4,1%), kuid liikuva uustaasta püha tõttu väga sügavaid järeldusi sellest ei tehta.
Via Marketwatch: January’s consumer price index rose 4.5% in January from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Thursday, exceeding consensus analyst expectations of 4.1%, according to separate Reuters and Dow Jones Newswires surveys. The inflation spike stood in stark contrast to a softening trends in recent months, as prices had risen 4.1% in December, 4.2% in November, and 5.5% in October. -
Diamond Foods (DMND)-s on juba mõnda aega audiitorid uurinud firma raamatupidamist, sest ettevõttel lasub kahtlus pettuses ja valeandmete esitamises.
Eile peale turu sulgumist teatas DMND, et audiitorid on leidnud firma raamatupidamises ebakõlasid ja sellest tulenevalt peab 2010. ja 2011. aasta majandusaruanded üle vaatama ja korrigeerima. Ühtlasi nimetati ametisse ka uus CEO ja CFO.
Diamond Foods: audit committee investigation announces findings - will restate 2010 and 2011 financial statements; announces appointment of new CEO and CFO
Aktsiahind kukkus järelturul üle 40%. -
Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse toodang kasvas detsembris eelmise aasta sama ajaga võrreldes +0,8% vs oodatud +0,3% (ja eelmisel kuul -1,0%) ja eelmise kuuga võrreldes oli kasv 1,0% vs oodatud 0,2%. Tööstustoodangu näit tuli aastasel baasil -3,3% vs oodatud -3,1% (novembris -3,6%), kuid eelmise kuuga võrreldes tuli kasv oodatud 0,2% asemel 0,5%.
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Mõned Kreeka makronäitajad:
Töötusmäär tõusis eelmise kuu 18,2% pealt 20,9% peale novembris; jaanuarikuu tarbijahinnaindeks 2,3% (Y/Y); detsembrikuu tööstustoodang langes novemrbikuu -7,8% pealt -11,3% peale (Y/Y). -
Šveitsi suuruselt teine pank Credit Suisse (CS) teatas täna, et nende neljas kvartal lõppes kahjumiga EPS -0,62 CHF versus konsenuse 0,33 CHFja käive jäi samuti konsenuse ootustest väiksemaks 4,473 CHF miljonit (konsenus 573,5 miljonit CHF).
Credit Suisse reports Q4 EPS of (CHF0.62) vs CHF0.33 CIQ est; net loss attributable to shareholders of CHF637 mln, Core Results pre-tax loss of CHF 998mln, Core Results net revenues of CHF4,473 mln vs CHF5,573.5 mln. Co's Basel 2.5 tier 1 ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points to 15.2%; Basel 2.5 core tier 1 ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 10.7%; and Net stable funding ratio further improved to 98%. Co states: "We have accelerated the reduction of risk-weighted assets and expect to reach the risk-weighted assets level originally targeted for the end of 2012 by the end of the first quarter 2012. -
Veel DMDN teema jätkuks. Täna ka mitmed analüüsimajad olukorda kommenteerimas ja RBC Capitali analüütikud ütlevad, et reaaliseerus kõige hullem stsenaarium ja seda mitmel põhjusel:
Esiteks on firma kasv nüüd täiesti takerdunud ning igasugune selgus tuleviku osas samuti kadunud.Teiseks saavad kontrolli enda kätte nüüd pangad mitte investorid, sest 2011. aasta tulude üle vaatamine võib tõsta firma võlakordaja 5,3x peale kui isegi mitte 6x peale.
The growth story has stalled for now, and visibility is low. With thearchitect of Diamond's growth strategy gone, Pringles presumably off the table,and financial flexibility limited at best, the DMND investment thesis has takena significant blow. Meanwhile, we find it difficult to assess the company'searnings prospects with the organization in flux and multiple lawsuits andinvestigations ongoing.• The banks, not the stockholders, are now in control. Diamond's restatedFY-11 earnings puts its leverage ratio at 5.3x, and this could rise to 6x if thecompany is forced to pay a break-up fee to Procter & Gamble. This putsDMND in violation of its debt covenants. We assume that the banks will act intheir own best interest, but we don't know what that course of action will be. Aforced liquidation is a possibility, but with lawsuits pending, it's unclear to uswhether forced asset sales are even feasible at this juncture.•
Analüütikute arvates võivad olukorras kasu lõigata HAIN, LNCE ja BGS.
Potential beneficiaries include HAIN, LNCE and BGS. If Diamond's snackbrands are liquidated, we believe Hain and Snyder's-Lance would be logicalsuitors for Kettle, and Pop Secret would be a good potential fit with B&GFoods, in our view.
Jefferies analüütikud viitavad sellele, et tõenäoliselt on nüüd off the table ka Pringles`i tehing (DMND pidi ostma PG-lt Pringles snäkkide segmendi $ 1,5 miljardi eest) ja sellest tulenevalt on reaalne, et DMND peab maksma trahvi $ 60 miljonit ja $ 6 miljonit kaasnevate kulude eest. Teiseks pole ka selge, kui suured on uurimisega seotud kulud.
What additional costs will DMND incur? How much has DMND spent on theinvestigation, outside counsel and third party auditor so far? What incremental costs willthe company incur to fight/settle shareholder lawsuits and to manage the SEC and DoJinvestigations? How distracted has management been and how much has that hurt growth?
Eelturul kaupleb DMND $ 21,55 juures, 41% miinuspoolel. -
BOE jättis baasintressi 0,5% peale ning suurendas QEd 50 miljardi naela võrra (kokku nüüdseks 325 mld) ning EKP jättis just hetk tagasi oma baasintressi ka samaks 1,0%le.
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Financial Times headline that Greek politicians have reached an austerity deal and a statement is expected shortly
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SPRT +13.7%, (thinly traded), AKAM +13.2%, IPSU +13.1% (light volume), SCSS +8%, RRTS +7.6%, UHAL +7.2% (light volume), ALXN +6.9%, ENS +6.8% (light volume), THOR +6.3% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), ONNN +4.7% (also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush), TDC +4.2% (light volume), V +3.4%, ANDE +3.4%, MTGE +3.3%, FMC +3%, CYAN +2.6% (thinly traded), BG +1.8%, NWSA +0.6%.
M&A related: SFSF +0.4% (SAP AG unit extends offer to acquire SuccessFactors and waives CFIUS condition), TLEO (halted, Taleo to be acquired by ORCL for $46.00/share).
A few oil/gas related names showing strength: STO +1.0%, BP +0.9% (trying to get settlement related to Gulf oil spill claims, according to reports), TOT +0.7%, RIG +0.7%, SDRL +0.4%.
A few TLEO peers are ticking higher following merger news: CSOD +5.6%, KNXA +4%, ULTI +2.5%.
Other news: STXS +12% (announces European adoption milestone and health canada market clearance for Vdrive system), BPAX +11.9% (reports 'positive' LibiGel safety data review for Phase III program), SIX +4.8% (announces ten-fold increase in quarterly dividend from $0.06 to $0.60 per share), YHOO +2.2% (Yahoo! ticker higher premarket following reports that Alibaba (ALBCF) shares are halted pending news regarding patent), MA +1% (following V results), BWLD +0.4% (positive mention on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: LVLT +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen), WAG +0.7% (ticking higher, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie), AAPL +0.4% (initiated with a Buy at Mizuho). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PZZI -28.9%, IRBT -22.7% (also downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), TRIP -16.3% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark), MCZ -14.9% (thinly traded), PSDV -11.3% (thinly traded), GRPN -9.7%, BGC -9.2%, VLNC -7.7% (thinly traded), TQNT -7.5%, SQNS -6.3%, MMYT -6.1%, AFFX -5.2%, DVOX -5% (ticking lower), LUFK -4.8%, SIRI -2.3%, CS -2.2%, PEP -1.9% (plans to restructure, increase advertising/marketing expense, co will raise dividend 4% in June and buyback shares in FY12 ), WFM -1.2%, SHPGY -1.2%, RIO -0.8%, CSCO -0.6% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at ISI Group), NANO -0.6%.
Other news: DMND -40.5% (Audit committee investigation announces findings - will restate 2010 and 2011 financial statements. Announces appointment of new CEO and CFO), ARRY -14.1% (announces proposed public offering of common stock; terms not disclosed), APRI -13.5% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and warrants; terms not disclosed), IRWD -5.7% (announced last night FDA Advisory committee meeting will not be scheduled in connection with new drug application for Linaclotide, files for class A common stock shelf offering, announces proposed public offering of 5.25 mln shares of common stock), EA -5.2% (Polycom names Eric Brown CFO and COO, formerly with EA), LODE -5.1% (announced that it plans to make a public offering of its common stock; size of offering not disclosed), KRC -3.7% (Kilroy Realty announces commencement of public offering of 7 mln common shares), ANAC -3.5% (announces the sale of 3.25 million shares of common stock), ERIC -1.3% and JNPR -0.8% (following CSCO results).
Analyst comments: AONE -5.3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Wunderlich), SOHU -0.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank). -
Yahoo! ticker higher premarket following reports that Alibaba (ALBCF) shares are halted pending news regarding patent
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/us-alibaba-suspension-idUSTRE8180GX20120209 -
Melco Crown Entertainment beats by $0.03, beats on revs
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.17; revenues rose 30.2% year/year to $1.01 bln vs the $0.98 bln consensus. The YoY increase in net revenue was primarily driven by a group-wide increase in gaming volumes and significant improvements in mass table games hold percentages, as well as increasing contributions from our hotel, food & beverage and entertainment segments. Adjusted EBITDA was US$231.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2011, an increase of 73% from US$133.8 million of Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2010. The significant improvement in profitability was primarily a result of the ongoing increase in contribution from our mass market operations, particularly the mass table games segment at City of Dreams, together with strong group-wide rolling chip volumes. -
KV Pharm announces updated Makena performance metrics
Makena was launched during March of 2011. From its launch date through January 31, 2012 approximately 7,900 vials have been shipped to Ther-Rx customers of which approximately 6,500 vials have been distributed to doctors and patients. This is an increase of approximately 600 vials shipped to customers and 1,600 vials shipped to doctors and patients since November 2011; Approximately 6,000 patient referrals from over 3,500 prescribers have been made to the Makena Care Connection, an increase of approximately 1,200 patients and 500 prescribers since November 2011; Approximately 3,700 patients have either initiated treatment, are in the enrollment phase or are pending insurance approval and treatment initiation, an increase of more than 900 patients since November 2011; Over 250 payers, both commercial and Medicaid, have reimbursed Makena and at least 19 states have reimbursed Makena; and Current data indicates patient co-pays are averaging approximately $10 per injection, the same or less cost than those typically associated with compounded 17P formulations. -
Taleo to be acquired by Oracle (ORCL) for $46.00/share
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Continuing Claims rises to 3.515 mln from 3.451 mln
Initial Claims 358K vs 370K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 373K from 367K -
Apple ests and target raised to $665 at Canaccord Genuity following checks indicating very strong sales trends
Apple: In its semi-annual update, Needham is raising its Apple price target to $620 from $540
Kui Apple täna nõrkust näitab, siis kasumivõtt turul on väga lähedal. -
Neurogesx halted pending FDA news
Võib huvitav olla, kuna eile sai bloomi artikkli peale korraliku lõikuse
Eilne artikkel siin:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/neurogesx-patch-for-hiv-pain-might-be-ineffective-fda-staff-report-says.html?cmpid=yhoo -
AKAM on peale tulemuste raporteerimist kauplemas ~16% kõrgemal, kuid üsna tihti on oluliste uudiste taustal aktsia madalamale müüdud. Short on hetkel turul nn. out, kuid $40 juurest lühike positsioon võiks varasema käitumise taustal olla täitsa teema.
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AlariÜ
Apple ests and target raised to $665 at Canaccord Genuity following checks indicating very strong sales trends
Apple: In its semi-annual update, Needham is raising its Apple price target to $620 from $540
Kui Apple täna nõrkust näitab, siis kasumivõtt turul on väga lähedal.
Kas 480 tase võiks olla probleemiks:) -
To:krookus
Eks seda on päeva peale näha. -
Joel Kukemelk
Financial Times headline that Greek politicians have reached an austerity deal and a statement is expected shortly
Ei tea, mis siis nüüd järgmine turgude "mure" on - Portugal, USA või hoopis Hiina? Mure peab olema, ilma mureta ju ei saa. -
Kas just järgmine aga natukese aja pärast on mureks kindlasti jälle Kreeka. Siis kui selgub, et see abipakett ei lahenda proleemi.
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Nojah, ma seda silmas pidasingi, et ajal, kui Kreeka on ajutiselt tagaplaanil.
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EA on $18 juurest üsna huvitav bet, tehniliselt on see tase pikalt toetuseks olnud.
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IRobot beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides Q1 and 2012 EPS and revs below consensus
IRobot downgraded to Hold from Buy at EarlyBirdCapital
IRobot downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
$26 juurest tundub atraktiivne kiire põrke püüdmiseks, stopp paigas. -
Cynic
Kas just järgmine aga natukese aja pärast on mureks kindlasti jälle Kreeka. Siis kui selgub, et see abipakett ei lahenda proleemi.
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT! -
Kes IRBT ostis peaks juba väljas olema, juhul kui langeb alla $25.50 võib uuesti vaadata.
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STP ja TSL täna hoo sisse saanud:
http://www.trefis.com/stock/stp/articles/102900/suntech-jumps-as-hopes-rise-of-asian-demand-for-solar-products/2012-02-09 -
Apple Inc, on tänasega Market Capilt suurem, kui MSFT ja GOOG kokku:D
(AAPL 462 miljardit -> GOOG 199 miljardit ja MSFT 257 miljardit) -
WSJ huvitav artikkel Apple Inc, kohta:
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/09/apple-what-will-come-first-ipad-3-or-500-stock-price/ -
$AAPL is over 30% above its 200 dma and bigger mkt cap than GOOG and MSFT combined. last 3 corrections it topped at 20% above 200 dma
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YHOO, i'm getting phishing emails from fake Yahoo in my INBOX, when it should be going straight to SPAM... yep they are that stupid!
Kena nali:D -
Range Resources: Hearing removed from Buy List at Deutsche Bank
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Alari, üksi ainult kirjutadki?
Las teised ka ikka kribavad:) -
AlariÜ
Apple Inc, on tänasega Market Capilt suurem, kui MSFT ja GOOG kokku:D
(AAPL 462 miljardit -> GOOG 199 miljardit ja MSFT 257 miljardit)
Poleks ka paha võrdlus:
Apple = 462 miljardit
Microsoft + Google + Nokia = 475 miljardit -
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AAPL optsioonide analüütikult hea kommentaar:
It is very bullish that the call OI keeps expanding and it doesn’t even have an effect on AAPL currently. On Tuesday, $470 OI was stalling AAPL, but other than that it keeps powering thru soaking up any selling pressure. Same notes apply since earnings. AAPL’s valuation is finally being discovered and you have limited people willing to sell shares causing current price action. This has been going on since $450 (ER) so if all of a sudden tomorrow, AAPL doesn’t go up to the highest call OI don’t worry. It can only expand so much in a week. I have the $485 in black as I have no desire to call a top. I imagine it holds but would only play call side with risk-less type trades. I will do my best in trying to catch a reversal in AAPL. Notice the put OI pretty much stays constant and the call side is the one that keeps aggressively moving? That’s how you tell direction and power. The put side is stable and AAPL has stayed away from that side since November. When you reverse, everything you are witnessing will be just the opposite, on the put side. Or you can stay flatlined, in that case AAPL would just hang out in the center, favoring neither side. -
PCLN kohta seekingalphas hea kokkuvõte:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/355311-5-stocks-that-offer-profit-taking-opportunity?source=kizur
Lisaks on mõned suuremad hotelliketid teinud sellise teenuse:
http://www.roomkey.com/about.html -
Neurogesx: headlines crossing that FDA panel voted against co's Qutenza 12-0, stock remains halted, awaiting official press release
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Google to develop consumer home entertainment system, introduce entertainment devices this year - CNBC citing WSJ
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Ja S&P 500 1352.02
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Nuance Communications prelim $0.34 vs $0.36 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $361 mln vs $387.15 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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LinkedIn prelim $0.12 vs $0.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $167.7 mln vs $159.42 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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Expedia Inc, (EXPE) EPS üle, käive alla.
Tulemused siin:
http://www.expediainc.com/ir.cfm
Aktsia järelturul ~2% alla.
TZOO oli sama lugu:
Travelzoo prelim $0.40 vs $0.35 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $35.2 mln vs $38.75 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Kui mälu ei peta, siis kaubeldi ~5% madalamal.
PCLN avaldab kvartali tulemused 27. veebruar peale turgu. Võib huvitav olla.
