Börsipäev 11. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Turud jäid eilne võrdlemisi heitlikuks. Euroopa poolel aitas optimismi säilitada uudis, et Hispaania saab pankade abistamiseks juba sel kuul esimesed 30 miljardit eurot kätte ning ühtlasi levisid kuulujutud, et Saksa põhiseaduslik kohus oli lähedal ESMi heakskiitmisele. Hiljem siiski selgus, et kohtuotsusega võidakse viivitada mitu kuud. Stoxx 600 sulgus 0,8% kõrgemal, kuid USAs oli sentiment märksa negatiivsem, kui S&P 500 indeks loovutas päeva lõpuks -0,8%.
USA müügisurvele andis hoogu juurde Cumminsi kasumihoiatus päeva keskel. Kui enne lootis globaalselt väga laia haardega kerg- kui raskemasinatele mootoreid ning muud seotud tehnoloogiat (heitgaasisüsteemid elektrigeneraatorid jm) tootev ettevõte näha tänavu 10% käibekasvu, siis nüüd hoiatati oodatust olulisest madalamast teise kvartali müügitulu numbrist ning arvatakse, et aasta lõikes saab käive olema samal tasemel mullusega. Kommentaaris juhiti tähelepanu just sellele, et väga paljude ettevõtete jaoks kasvu vedavates riikides nagu Brasiilias, Indias ja Hiinas on nõudlus tänavu pehmenenud ega näidanud teises kvartalis taastumise märke nii nagu loodeti. Uudise peale liikus allapoole ka Caterpillar. Usun, et nii mõnigi investor võtab pärast seda oluliselt ettevaatlikuma hoiaku tulemustehooaja lähenedes.
Tulles Euroopasse, siis siin jätkub kuum diskussioon ESMi ja Hispaania pankade teemal. Sentimenti kahjustas arutelu Saksamaa põhiseaduslikus kohtus, kus vaieldi kas ESMi ratifitseerimine on üldse lubatav põhiseaduse kohaselt ning nenditi, et lõpliku otsuse tegemiseks võib minna kuni kolm kuud, mis muidugi hoiab turgude jaoks taas määramatust üleval isegi kui suuresti usutakse siiski soodsasse lõpplahendusse.
Hispaania puhul arutatakse pankade päästmiseks antava raha tingimuste üle. Ehkki ESM peaks kapitali süstima ilma kõrgema kreeditori staatuseta, siis teatud ülemuslikku seisust siiski soovitakse saavutada. FT kirjutab täna, kuidas enne raha andmist tehetakse Hispaania pankadele peale suruda kohustust kustutada jaeinvestoritele kuuluvad eelisaktsiad ning madalama prioriteediga võlakirjad. Kokku on säärast hübriid- ja madalama prioriteediga võlga emiteeritud ligi 67 miljardi euro eest, millest suurem osa müüdi jaeinvestoritele säästutoodetena. Seega mitte ainult ei tekitata paljude pensionikontodel korralik auk, vaid eks lisaks teatud määral kustutatakse üleüldist isu investeerida Hispaania pankade aktsiatesse või võlakirjadesse, kuigi seniority klausli eemaldamisega tingimustest tegelikult üritati ju seda vältida.
Makro poolele täna midagi huvitavat oodata pole. Fookuses saab ilmselt olema FOMC eelmise kohtumise protokoll, kust otsitakse vihjed, mis aitaksid suurendada lootust järgmiseks kvantitatiivseks lõdvendamiseks.
Tänane kalender:
15.30 USA kaubandusbilanss (mai)
17.00 USA hulgimüügi varud (mai)
21.00 FOMC juuni kohtumise protokoll
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,1% plusspoolel, Euroopa on alustamas päeva 0,3% punases. -
El Pais on kätte saanud kogu nimekirja punktidest, mida Hispaania pankade päästepaketi raames kavatsetakse rakendada ning jätab ajalehe sõnul mulje, nagu riiki võetakse võõrvägede poolt üle.
1. Provide data necessary to monitor the entire banking sector, including weekly data of deposits and liquidity positions.
2. Prepare with the European Commission plans to restructure a first group of banks; July, mid-August.
3. Finalize proposals for disclosure requirements; late July.
4. Have consultants provide information required for stress tests , including results of the review of asset quality, by mid August 2012.
5. Introduce legislation to apportion losses to several classes of shareholders and subordinated bondholders. Late August 2012.
6. Update the bank resolution framework , ie, strengthen the powers of settlement with the FROB and the deposit insurance fund. Late August 2012.
7. Prepare plans for a bad bank. End of August.
8. Complete stress tests for all banks. Second half of September.
9. Finish proposed regulation to improve transparency of banks. End of September.
10. Banks with capital shortages to apportion losses to shareholders, preferred shareholders and holders of subordinated debt. Between October and December.
11. Banks develop recapitalization plans. Early October.
12. Plan to restructure or liquidate banks in a second group;October 2012.
13. Improve Bank of Spain’s guidelines or binding rulings, but short of full regulatory powers. Late October 2012.
14. Internal review of processes and decision making. Late October 2012.
15. Legislation for a bad bank. Fall 2012.
16. Improvements in credit reports. End of October.
17. Develop proposals for the strengthening of non-bank financial intermediaries. Mid-November.
18. Propose measures to strengthen the governing bodies of savings banks. End of November.
19. Provide a road map for an eventual stock exchange listing of banks that have received state aid. End of November.
20. Prepare legislation to clarify the role of savings banks in their capacity as shareholders of credit institutions to reduce their holdings to levels that do not involve control.
21. Banks should provide standardized estimates of quarterly balance sheets. As of December 1
22. Present a policy paper on what to do after the expiry of the royal decrees 2/2012 and 18/2012, applying to the restructuring of the banking sector. Mid December 2012.
23. Issue Cocos for a third group of banks. End-December 2012.
24. Transferring the powers of enforcement and bank licensing from the finance ministry to the Bank of Spain. Late December.
25. Require lenders to review strategies to address impair assets. Late December.
26. Require that all Spanish credit institutions have at least 9% tier-one quality at least until late 2014. January 1, 2013.
27. To review the rules governing the FROB and deal with conflicts of interests. January 1, 2013.
28. Review the problems of credit accumulation in certain parts of the economy. Mid January 2013
29. Propose specific legislation to limit the sale by the banks of subordinated debt securities to retail customers. Late February 2013
30. Amend legislation to improve the credit registry. End of March 2013
31. Raising capital requirements for banks planning to increase equity. Late June 2013
32. Banks in the third Group with Cocos must submit restructuring plans . Late June 2013 -
IMF redigeeris veidi oma Itaalia prognoose. Vaatamata Monti jõupingutustele oodatakse riigi tänavuseks eelarvedefitsiidiks varasema 2,4% asemel 2,6% ning võlakoorma ja SKT suhteks 125,8% (varem 123,4%). Viimane peaks tuleval aastal kasvama 126,4% peale (varem 123,8%). Töötuse määraks oodatakse 2013.a 11,1%. SKT kasvuprognoos jäi muutumatuks, kui majandusele oodatakse -1,9% langust sel aastal ning -0,3% taandumist järgmisel aastal.
According to Arrigo Sadun, IMF Executive Director for Italy, “The structural reforms introduced in the past few months and those planned will produce tangible benefits in the years ahead,” but in the short-term “could hardly be expected to spur aggregate demand.” -
Hispaania peaminister on avalikustanud täiendava kärpekava eesmärgiga vähendada riigi eelarve defitsiiti järgneva kahe ja poole aasta jooksul kokku 65 miljardi euro ulatuses. Muuhulgas tehti ettepanek tõsta käibemaksu 18% pealt 21% peale, mis paljude arvates maksab tagasi läbi väiksema tarbimise ja suurema majandusliku languse. Avaliku sektori töötajatelt võetakse ära aastalõpu boonused ning töötu abiraha vähendadakse pärast kuuendat kuud 50% peale eelnevalt saadud sissetulekust. Praegu saadakse kuue kuu jooksul 70% palgast ning 60% pärast poolt aastat.
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Levinud arvamuse kohaselt usutakse, et recession tähendab kahte järjestikust negatiivse muutusega sisemajanduse kogutoodangut, kuid see pole kindel definitsioon. Kui lähtuda IMFi arvamusest, kelle kohaselt leiab recesssion aset siis kui SKT kasv vajub alla 3%, siis võib öelda, et paljud riigid on juba majandussurutist kogemas. ECRI tugineb ka rohkem IMFi definitsioonile, millele lisaks lähtutakse veel paljudest teistest näitajatest. Via Investopedia
In addition to that, the IMF looks at declines in real per-capita world GDP along with several global macroeconomic factors before confirming a global recession. -
Decreasing visibility leaves us cautious for the near term but we are confident that our strong customer alignment and increasing global footprint will deliver long term growth for the company.”
ADTN tuli numbritega, aga kas see lause on eelsoojendus hommikuse CC ajaks, kui järgmise Q revenue guido annab? -
Autode hulgimüük on oli Hiinas juunis oodatust parem, kuid osa sellest võis olla tingitud tehaste tavapärane sulgemine juulis-augustis. Via Bloomberg
Wholesale deliveries, including multipurpose and sport utility vehicles, gained 16 percent to 1.28 million units last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in a statement today. That compares with the 1.27 million average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Total vehicle sales, including trucks and buses, increased 9.9 percent to 1.58 million units in June. Sport-utility vehicle deliveries gained 52 percent, the best-performing segment. -
Turg näib hetkel tervitatavat Rajoy värsket kärpe- ja maksude tõstmise plaani. Hispaania 10a võlakirja yield on tulnud 6,67% peale ning EUR/USD põrganud 1,2300 lähedale (+0,32%), mis on omakorda katalüsaatoriks USA futuuridele (hetkel +0,5%).
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OCZ Technology downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse downgraded OCZ Technology citing concerns of cash burn and the potential need for a capital raise.
Peale eilseid tulemusi. See kutsub stocki killima. Mina short, natuke. Pennikas ja ei meeldi eilne päevasisene kukkumine ning sellele eelnenud lend kuu alguses. Tundub natuke segaduses investoritega tegu olevad :) -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HGG -22% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Suntrust, downgraded to Average at Caris & Company), VOXX -15.9%, OCZ -6.4% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at FBN Securities), ADTN -5.1%, CYS -2.4% (also Cypress Sharpridge Investments announces public offering of 30 mln shares of common stock), HCSG -1%.
Other news: PSEC -6.3% (announces public offering of common stock), ARNA -5.8% (following MadMoney comments), KOF -5.4% (still checking), GMLP -4.8% (announces pricing of public offering), BBY -4.4% (lower following HGG guidance), GG -4.2% (announces Q2 production increased 10% compared to prior quarter; FY12 production guidance revised to 2.35-2.45 mln ounces compared to previous guidance of 2.6 mln ounces), SPLS -3.6% (still checking), ACC -1.7% (prices 15 mln shares of common stock at $44.25), BZH -1% (prices 22 mln shares of common stock at $2.90 per share; prices 4 mln 7.50% tangible equity units at $25 each), CB -1% (estimates second quarter catastrophe losses of $200-240 mln), LLY -0.8% (announces pomaglumetad methionil did not meet primary endpoint of clinical study).
Analyst comments: AA -100% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital_, LIFE -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan), DNDN -3.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), HUN -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), WM -0.8% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley). -
Gapping up
Select financial related names showing strength: ING +2.9%, BBVA +2.3%, DB +2.2%, HBC +1.3%, BAC +1.1%, BCS +0.9% (Bloomberg TV headline that bank sued for fraud over alleged Libor manipulation), MS +0.7%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: JAG +5.1%, MT +1.6%, BBL +1.2%, SLV +0.9%, GLD +0.5%.
Other news: OREX +8.7% (announced an update to the projected timeframe for completion of enrollment of the Light Study), OMPI +8.4% (filed an amendment to its Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation to eliminate the Certificate of Designation authorizing the issuance of 50,000 shares of Series A Preferred Stock and designating the rights, preferences and privileges thereof), PAY +4.9% (wins $35 million-plus contract for District of Columbia Taxi Systems), MJN +4.3% (following yesterday's weakness on reports related to baby formula, confirmed that the Hunan Provincial Credit Construction Promotion Council has issued an apology for erroneous reports based on invalid testing related to the presence of Vanillin in infant formula products), ARMH +3.4% (still checking), QCOR +3.2% (modestly rebounding), ANF +2.5% (NYPost reporting, citing sources, that ANF is preparing a 'massive share buyback'), SWHC +2.1% (Smith & Wesson discloses Asset Purchase Agreement with FutureNet Group), OSUR +1.9% (priced of an underwritten offering of 6.1 mln shares of its common stock at a price of $12.30/share), ONXX +0.9% (positive mention on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: SAP +1.7% (SAP upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity), WEN +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush), SINA +1.1% (initiated with a Overweight at HSBC Securities), BIDU +1% (initiated with a Overweight at HSBC Securities). -
May Trade Balance -$48.7 bln vs -$48.9 bln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -$50.6 bln from -$50.1 bln
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Morgan Stanley lisab täna Sina (SINA) oma RTI (Tactical Research Idea) nimekirja ning ütleb, et nende hinnangul peaks aktsiahind järgmise paari kuu jooksul tõusma.
We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days.
This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling. Note that: 1) With Sina's share price at US$45-50, its Weibo service is largely valued for free. 2) We expect its ad sales to rebound in 2H, aided by improved ad sales from the auto sector, its leading ad category, and stronger ad demand from the Olympics.
China’s auto sales rebounded 16% YoY in May (Xinhua), while major sports events (e.g., Olympics and World Cup) have historically added 10-20% incremental ad sales to Sina and Sohu, on our estimates. 3) Sina started to monetize its Weibo services. It debuted its display ad services in April, with encouraging initial advertiser feedback. It may also collect sales from premium membership, enterprise accounts and revenue sharing with third-party app developers on its "open platform", which would present ample upside.
Analüütikud usuvad, et antud aktsiahinna juures ( $ 45-50) on Weibo väärtus suhteliselt olematu. Teiseks prognoosivad nad, et müük taastub aasta teises pooles, mida peaks toetama autosektori reklaam, mis on ka nende juhtiv reklaami kategooria. Lisaks peaks kaasa aitama ka maailmas toimuvad suured spordisündmused nagu näiteks olümpiamängud. Eelnevale lisaks peaks müüginumbreid kasvatama ka Weibo teenuste tasud.
We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% or "very likely" probability for the scenario.
Analüütikute hinnangul tõuseb SINA aktsiahind 70-80% tõenäosusega.
Lisaks Morgan Stanley RTI-le on täna alustanud SINA katmist Osta reitinguga ka HSBC Securities.
Aktsia kaupleb eelturul ligi 2% plusspoolel, $ 48,80 kandis. -
OCZ out ka, viisakas mainida ehk.
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Fed Minute Headlines include: Agreed 'it was prepared for further action' if appropriate; said possible significant slow down in China; sees economy picking up 'very gradually' later
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Kass vahendab kuulukat, et Google'i homsed tulemused kannatavad valuutakursside all
High above the Alps, my Gnome is hearing that a large negative foreign-exchange swing will adversely affect Google's (GOOG) quarterly results, which will fall short of expectations. -
Google'i tulemused siiski nädala pärast neljapäeval
