Börsipäev 11. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Mõningane närvilisus saatis eile investoreid enne FEDi neljapäevast istungit, sest potentsiaalne rahatrükk näib hetkel suhteliselt nõrga makro taustal olevat ainuke jõud, mis seda turgu suudab üleval hoida ja suunata. Kui keskpank piirdub vaid baasintressi madalal tasemel hoidmise tähtaja pikendamisega, sõltub edasine reaktsioon sellest, kui tugevaks jääb usk, et uus QE on vaid aja küsimus. Stoxx 600 sulgus -0,2% ja S&P 500 -0,6% madalamal.
Üks suurimad vastuvoolu ujujaid oli eile üllatuslikult Kreeka aktsiaturg, mille ASE indeks kerkis +4,7%. Seda vaatamata uudistele, et troika oli lükanud tagasi osa koalitsiooni poolt kokkulepitud 11,5 miljardi euro suurusest fiskaalsest kärpekavast ning rahandusministri sõnul osutusid läbirääkimised väga keeruliseks. Ühe ametniku sõnul on tüliõunaks ametnike arvu agressiivsem vähendamine, mida troika omaltpoolt nõuab.
USA turgudel suurenes müügihuvi päeva teises pooles, mida osalt tingis viimasel tunnil avalikustatud juulikuu tarbijakrediidi muutus. Oodatud 10 miljardi dollari suuruse kasvu asemel näidati hoopis -3,3 miljardi dollari ulatuses vähenemist võrreldes juuniga – esimene langus ligi aasta jooksul. Nagu allolevalt ZeroHedge’i jooniselt võib täheldada, siis johtus see peamiselt krediitkaardivõla kahanemisest 4,82 miljardi dollari võrra 850,7 miljardile. Auto- ja õppelaenud (non revolving credit) kasvasid hooajaliselt korrigeerituna 1,55 miljardi dollari võrra, mis eelnevate kuude baasil on samuti suhteliselt tagasihoidlik. Seega, mitte kõige julgustavam märk tarbija kindlustunde kohta.
Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis makrost väärib mainimist vaid USA juulikuu kaubandusbilansi avaldamine kell 15.30.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel -0,3% madalamal, Euroopa on avanemas poole protsendi jagu punases. -
Samal ajal Hiinas on aga uute laenude maht näidanud augustis mõningast taastumist, kerkides juuli 540 miljardi jüaani pealt 703 miljardi jüaanini ehk 111 miljardi dollarini, lüües sellega ka analüütikute oodatud 600 mld jüaani ootust.
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Eile liikusid uudised, et Saksa konstitutsioonikohus võib oma otsust edasi lükata. Täna kinnitatakse, et oma otsus avalikustatakse nii nagu varasemalt öeldi ehk 12. septembril
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NEPT +8.4%, CASY +6%, APP +4.9% (light volume), URBN +1.3%.
M&A related: WSB +88.4% (WSB Holdings acquired by Old Line Bancshares for ~$49 mln in cash and stock deal), ACOM +0.5% (following late volatility on continued PE interest speculation).
Select financial related names showing strength: DB +2.5% (to reach pot-tax return on equity of 12% or more by 2015; sees Basel III Tier one capital ratio of 8% by March of 2013 - CNBC, citing conference), RBS +2.1%, MS +1.7%, BCS +1.2%, HBC +1.1%, BAC +0.6%.
A few drug names are trading higher: SNY +2.2%, GSK +1.3%, AZN +0.9%, ELN +0.8%.
Other news: SNSS +26.9% (following 20%+ drop yesterday, to implement one-time sample size increase to Phase 3 VALOR trial in AML; DSMB recommendation triggers $25.0 mln investment in sunesis from Royalty Pharma), CTIC +6.6% (announces European launch of Pixuvri For treatment of adult patients with multiply relapsed or refractory aggressive Non-Hodgkin B-Cell Lymphoma), PSTI +6.5% (filed 10-K after the close), GMCR +3.4% (Luigi Lavazza S.p.A. discloses 6.8% stake in 13D filing yesterday out near the close; firm made new purchases to reaffirm its position as a significant minority stockholder ), NOK +2.3% (reports that Nokia Siemens jv may divest select units), SSRI +2.2% (reports silver and zinc mineralized intercepts from 3 target areas at Pirquitas; DDH-238: 27 meters at 202 g/t Ag and 9.8% Zn), TTM +1.9% (reports that the co is expanding into Indonesia), HES +0.9% (positive mention on MadMoney), PSEC +0.5% (CFO discloses buying 23.5K shares at $11.69-11.73 on 9/6-9/7, worth ~$275K), DNKN +0.4% (Lone Pine Capital discloses 6.7% stake in 13G filing out last night after the close; Wellington reports 10.44% position in seperate filing).
Analyst comments: BMY +0.8% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), AMZN +0.4% (tgt raised to $245 from $220 at Barclays) -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PPO -13.8%, COOL -6.3% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), SHFL -6%, PANW -5.9%, FIVE -4.6%, SON -0.6%.
Select retailers under pressure following BURBY guidance: RL -3.0%, COH -2.9% (Coach downgraded to Hold from Buy at Brean Murray), TIF -2.7%, MOV -0.8%, ANF -0.6%, SKS -0.5%, FOSL -0.5%.
Other news: NAVB -34.5% (receives Complete Response Letter from FDA for Lymphoseek NDA due to manufacturing deficiencies), EOX -11.8% (announces proposed public offering of common stock, announces McKenzie County, North Dakota, operated acreage acquisition and reserve report update), SQNM -6.6% (announces proposed offering of $100 mln of convertible senior notes), CENT -6.2% (comments on quarter ahead of presentation at CL King Best Ideas Conference), AMRN -4.6% (disclosed that no determination on regulatory exclusivity related to Vascepa Capsules is expected in August Orange Book supplement), EPB -4.2% (discloses offering of 7.1 mln common units representing limited partner interests in the Partnership), SUI -4% (commences public offering of 3 mln shares of common stock), TGH -3.7% (announces offering of 7,500,000 common shares), GGP -3.4% (Gen Growth Prop discloses it has sent a letter to Bill Ackman), AIG -2.4% (announces U.S. Dept of the Treasury pricing of ~553.8 mln shares of common stock at the initial public offering price of $32.50 per share), FSC -2.3% (commences public offering of common stock), WFC -1.1% (presenting at Barclays conf), CMO -0.8% (light volume, declares a $0.36 per share third quarter 2012 common dividend, prior $0.40 per share).
Analyst comments: TIBX -2.4% (downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity), LPX -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole). -
July Trade Balance -$42.0 bln vs -$44.0 Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -$41.9 bln from -$42.9 bln
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Moodys on toonud USA võlakoorma tagasi pildile nii nagu see juhtus täpselt aasta tagasi, mil S&P kärpis USA reitingut üha A võrra. EUR/USD on selle peale spike'nud 0,51% 1,2822 dollarini. Pressiteate leiab Zerohedge'i lehelt
MOODY'S THREATENS TO CUT US SOVEREIGN RATING WITHOUT A DEAL TO CUT DEBT -
Trade What You See
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay
In a market environment like the one we have right now, where there are many major news events, it is particularly important to be clear about your investing style. The question that many market players are contemplating is whether to anticipate market movement based on the headlines or defer to the price action regardless of what news might hit.
In the world of stock market punditry, there is endless discussion about how events like European Central Bank announcements, the jobs report, or FOMC decisions will ultimately affect the market. There is no shortage of folks happy to parse those events and make major market predictions. They are even right sometimes. But, as we saw last week, there are many "experts" who are just plain wrong about how the market is going to react. They might have great reasoning and a long list of considerations they think are important, but the market can be extremely uncooperative when it comes to acting in a manner that seems logical or rational.
In the years I've been trading, I've often made the mistake of letting big macro matters take me out of good trades. In many cases, I'd have been better off if I simply ignored the headlines and the big picture discussions and focused on the way the stocks I was holding were acting. Trading a stock because I'm worried about what might happen in Europe next week usually doesn't work very well.
Yes, major news events will often be the catalyst that changes the character of the market action but where people tend to make mistakes is that they are too anticipatory in front of scheduled news like the ECB or the Fed. They develop a thesis as to how the market is going to shift and act on it before the price action changes. The goal is to be ahead of the crowd but the advantage of doing that is wiped out quickly when the crowd keeps running in the same direction.
Right now, with the Fed decision coming Thursday, we face the classic decision to anticipate a change in market character once the news hits or stick with the price action, which has been generally positive lately. In other words, bet on the Fed or wait to see how the market reacts to the news?
I tend to be in the latter camp. While I want to be ready for the Fed and maybe even cut my market exposure in front of the news, I generally defer to the price action until it indicates I should shift. If a stock breaks down, I sell it. If I find good technical setups, I buy them.
Despite yesterday's weak market action and a breakdown in some momentum names, the overall market continues to act in a generally positive manner. Many thought the ECB news would be the event that caused a market shift, and now many think the FOMC on Thursday will produce a change in market character. I really don't know, but I don't have to know because my plan is to react as events unfold and not offer predictions. I sometimes wonder if I'd be better off if I was one of those market writers who constantly rolls out grandiose market predictions: The market has seen its highs and will fall into the end of the year! We are in the early stages of a massive rally that will take the DJIA to 14,000!
That stuff gets attention for the writer and produces lots of discussion, but is it the best way to trade? I don't think so, and that is why I don't do it. Predictions are fun, but does that make you a better trader?
The market is in a holding pattern as we await a German legal decision on ECB bailouts, and the Fed news is later this week. I see no reason to make a major market call and I will just continue to trade what I see, which has been working fairly well.
