Börsipäev 12. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Meeleolu paranes eile veidi turgudel vaatamata Moody’se poolt USA suunas tehtud hoiatuslasule. Võttes arvesse reaktsiooni, mille tingis EKP möödunud neljapäevane pressikonverents, ei juleta ilmselt väga panuseid lühikestele positsioonidele teha, enne kui FED pole oma kaarte välja ladunud. Stoxx 600 ja S&P 500 lõpetasid mõlemad 0,3% kõrgemal, kuid viimase puhul nägime sessiooni lõpus siiski mõningast kasumivõttu.
Euroopas teatas Saksamaa konstitutsioonikohus eile, et ei kavatse oma otsust ESMi ja fiskaalpakti osas edasi lükata ning avaldab arvamuse täna, nii nagu varasemalt paika pandi. Troika jätkab Portugali monitoorimist, tõdedes oma viimases ülevaates, et majandusreformides on progress olemas, ent keeruline makrokeskkond avaldab vastusurvet. Troika lõdvendas veidi defitsiidi sihte, tõstes 2012.a puudujäägi eesmärgi 4,5% pealt 5,0% peale ning järgmise aasta oma 3,0% pealt 4,5% peale. Portugali majanduslanguseks oodatakse tänavu -3,0% ning SKP YoY muutus peaks kujunema taas positiivseks järgmise aasta teises kvartalis.
Dollarit nõrgestas teiste valuutapaaride suhtes Moody’s, kes teatas, et kui Ühendriikide valitsus ei võta oma eelarvedefitsiidi ja võlakoormaga midagi ette, järgneb sellele tõenäoliselt krediidireitingu langetamine. Euro kallines dollari suhtes 0,76%, kui EUR/USD jõudis tagasi üle 1,2800 piiri ning on täna hommikul juba lähenemas 1,2900 tasemele.
“If there is no result and they delay doing anything serious on deficit reduction, it’s likely that in 2013 we would move the rating down.”
Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis põhiline fookus langeb Euroopale, kus Saksa konstitutsioonikohus avalikustab oma otsuse Eesti aja järgi kell 11.00 ning ühtlasi avaldab Euroopa Komisjon euroala pankade järelvalve plaani. Makrost raporteeritakse Suurbritannia tööturustatistika, eurotsooni juuli tööstustoodang. Ühtlasi väärib mainimist veel Apple’i konverents, mille raames oodatakse uut iPhone’i.
10.00 Barroso esitleb pangaliidu kava
11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodangu muutus (juuli)
11.00 Saksamaa konstitutsioonikohtu otsus
11.30 Suurbritannia juuli tööturustatistika
12.00 eurotsooni tööstustoodangu muutus (juuli)
17.00 USA hulgimüügi varude muutus (juuli)
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% kõrgemal, Euroopa on avanemas erisuunaliselt. -
kas see peaks häppirallit väärt olema?
Gene
Munster ütleb muidugi, et search on huge blaa-blaa. Aga üdini neg sentiment võib pupsuda, hommikune pluss ei tohiks minu meelest püsida, põld ju põhjust. Aga näis, on reageeringuid ka lüütikutelt üldse. -
Saksamaa konstitutsioonikohus lubab ESMi ratifitseerida, kuid ütleb, et võimalike kohustuste maksimummäär tuleb selle juures paika panna.
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Germany Must Ensure Esm Share Is Capped at EU190B, Court Says
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EURUSD: retail "sell the news" vs turuosalised "Acumulate"?
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Viimase aja EUR/USDi tõusu taustal võib homne liikumine väga huvitav olla, kui FOMC oma otsuse teatavaks teeb. Mingi osa potentsiaalsest QEst on sisse hinnatud ja pettumuse korral võib dollar taas nägu näidata.
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Tundub, et ootused Euroopa makro osas on viimasel ajal väga negatiivsed olnud, mis võimaldab tegelikel numbritel üllatada positiivselt. Samas kui võrrelda eelneva kuuga, siis peaks meeleolu jääma pigem ettevaatlikuks. Üheks selliseks näiteks on tänane eurotsooni tööstustoodangu muutus, mis ületas küll prognoose, ent aastases võrdluses langus pigem süvenes.
EURO-ZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (JUL) AT 0.6%M/M SA AND -2.3%Y/Y WDA VS. 0.1%M/M AND -3.3%Y/Y EXP. AND -0.6%M/M AND -2.1%Y/Y PRIOR. -
Itaalia tööstustoodangu langus aasta baasil jätkuvalt suhteliselt drastiline aga oodatust parem
ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (JUL) AT -0.2%M/M AND -7.3%Y/Y WDA VS. -0.4%M/M AND -7.6%Y/Y EXP. AND -1.3%M/M AND -7.9%Y/Y PRIOR (REV. HIGHER). -
Lisan siia ka Briti tööturu statistika
UK JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE (AUG) AT -15.0K VERSUS 0K EXPECTED AND -13.6K PRIOR (REVISED LOWER). -
Helsingin Sanomat ja Kauppalehti intervjueerisid mõlemad Hispaania peamistrit teisipäeval ning tulemused järgmised:
"In addition to growth, the only option I am considering is using the central bank's announced mechanism," Rajoy said, according to Helsingin Sanomat.
"It is completely outruled that we would ask for a bailout for the whole country," he told business daily Kauppalehti.
Ehk siit võib välja lugeda Hispaania plaani küsida alternatiivsete kanalite kaudu ESMist abi (Enhanced Conditions Credit Line), mis ei eeldaks troika nõudmisi, ent samas lubaks EKP-l järelturul võlakirju ostma hakata. Leidsin ühe artikli ECCLi kohta siit: link ECCLi limiit peaks olema 10% riigi SKPst ehk Hispaania puhul ca 100 miljardit eurot, mis ei pruugi olla piisav. -
Rajoy oli öelnud, et ametliku abipaketi tingimused ei ole vastuvõetavad. Need eeldavad lisaks teistele sügavatele kärbetele ka pensionite kärpimist. See tähendaks siis Rajoy valijaskonna hüvede vähendamist. Seetõttu ollakse sügavas jamas, aga keerutatakse ikka nii, et ei peaks abi paluma. Pole uurinud, kuidas neil muidu kärbete ellu viimisega läheb.
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Kas äkki ei taheta lasta troikat oma riiki ka sellepärast, et kardetakse mingi jama väljatuletkut, mis muudaks tegelikud numbrid koledamaks?
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Gapping up
M&A related: SSRX halted (announces receipt of 'going private' proposal at $15 Per ADS).
Financial related names showing strength: NBG +9.4%, ING +3.7%, CS +2.8%, BCS +2%, SAN +2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley ), UBS +1.9%, MS +1.4%, BAC +1.3%, HBC +0.9%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: EGO +2.4%, RIO +2%, GOLD +1.8%, MT +1.7%, SLW +1.2%, ABX +1.1%, BHP +1%, BBL +1.0%, NEM +1.0%, GLD +0.8%, GDX +0.8%, AUY +0.8%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: CHK +2.5% (announces agreements to sell permian, midstream and certain other assets for total net cash proceeds of ~$6.9 billion), WFT +1.2%, RIG +1.0%, VLO +1% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), RDS.A +0.5% (confirms it acquired acreage in Texas from Chesapeake Energy for $1.935 bln), SDRL +0.5%.
A few telecom related names trading higher: TEF +2.0%, FTE +1.9%
Other news: AUO +6.6% (US is considering a $1 bln to AUO over LCD fixing allegations, according to reports), FB +5.5% (following Zuckerberg interview last night), CTIC +5.3% (continued momentum), DGIT +5% (Scott K. Ginsburg discloses 8.1% stake in amended 13D filing; looks to actively pursue partnering in order to propose and enter into an acquisition or other strategic transaction), TTM +4.2% (trading higher following strength in overseas trading; reports indicate strength being attributed to new Range Rover), BT +4% (still checking), NOK +3.9% (more reports out related to Nokia Siemens divesting business unit), SNTS +3.7% (Santarus announces positive top-line Phase III Results for Rifamycin SV MMX in travelers' diarrhea), ZNGA +2.9% (sees small gains following positive mention from Mark Zuckerberg, according to CNBC), RYAAY +1.5% (still checking), AGNC +0.3% (American Capital Agency declares third quarter dividend of $1.25 per common share, unchanged from prior), MCD +0.3% (Barron's discusses cautious view on McDonald).
Analyst comments: YOKU +4.8% and SOHU +3.9% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup), GLUU +0.8% (ticking higher, initiated with a Buy at B. Riley). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GCOM -21.1%, XRTX -17.2%, STLD -4.9%.
M&A related: AOL -1.2% (AOL has spoken to Marissa Mayer about possible Yahoo (YHOO) merger, according to reports).
A few PCAR trucking peers ticking lower: PCAR -2.4% (says Q3 truck production is expected to be 15-20% lower than the second quarter), NAV -0.7%, CMI -0.7%.
Other news: GBG -46.9% (suspended operations at its Burnstone mine), RLH -6.9% (provided update on strategic review process, received no buyout offers), TOO -4.7% (plans to offer 7 mln common units, representing limited partner interests), PURE -4.4% (prices 3,784,000 shares of its common stock, at $1.10 per share), VNR -4% (has commenced a public offering of 6 mln common units representing limited liability company interests), CPE -3.7% (provides post-hurricane update and revised production guidance; impact of the hurricane disruption on Q3 production guidance is currently estimated to be ~ 200 Boepd), NTAP -1.9% (lower following XRTX guidance), MTH -1.9% (announces underwritten registered public offering of $100 mln aggregate principal amount of its Convertible Senior Notes due 2032), GFI -1.8% (still checking), CYS -1% (lowers quarterly dividend to $0.45 per share from $0.50 per share).
Analyst comments: AMGN -0.5% (light volume, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), ADP -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies), VOD -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), EXC -0.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS). -
The Market Isn't Listening
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 12, 2012 | 8:15 AM EDT |
Rescue someone unwilling to look after himself, and he will cling to you like a dangerous illness. --Mason Cooley
Europe is rescued once again as Germany's highest court allows the latest European fiscal pact to go forward. This means that the Greek bailout program can proceed. The indices are celebrating the news this morning.
The lesson again is that you simply can't fight the central bankers. Questioning the effectiveness of these plans is easy to do, but the market simply doesn't care if they work or not. The result of all the government action is to continue the flow of cheap money and the most likely place for those funds to go is into bonds and equities. With bonds yielding particularly nothing, the only way to generate a return is with stocks, and that is what is happening.
What has been tough for many traders is that the market keeps rallying endlessly on the central banker news. It never seems to reach the point where the news is priced in. Each incremental piece of news just brings in more buyers, even though it is already highly anticipated.
Tomorrow we have another test of how the market reacts to central bankers when the FOMC issues its interest rate decision. The bears will argue that it is a great setup for a sell-the-news reaction if the Fed delivers QE3. And if it doesn't do anything, there will be obvious disappointment. The problem for the bears -- even if the Fed holds off QE3 -- is that QE3 is still out there and has consistently supported the market.
The one big point I've been making for a while is worth repeating: It doesn't pay to try to anticipate a market top. Far too many traders want to be the hero who perfectly times the turning point. They want to be fully loaded with shorts at the exact moment of a top, but they just bury themselves deeper and deeper when their timing proves to be wrong.
The far better approach has been to stick with the uptrend, even if you have to hold your nose and buy. Since the bottom in 2009, the biggest mistake that traders have made is waiting for the next shoe to drop. It has been tremendously easy to come up with reasons why we are going to fall apart again but the market has just kept on chugging along far more often than not.
So, once again, far too many players are looking for the market to come to its senses and go down the drain when it finally understands how bad things really are. The argument makes sense, but the market isn't listening.
It may sound trite but there are two old sayings that apply right now: "Don't fight the Fed" and "The trend is your friend." If you stick with those simple notions and forget all the great intellectual arguments about why we are doomed, you will do fine.
In addition to the German court decision, AIG (AIG) and Facebook (FB) are helping the mood. We should have positioning today in front of the Fed decision tomorrow, which should keep things choppy. Stock picking is working, and that should be our focus. -
Erko Rebane
Kas äkki ei taheta lasta troikat oma riiki ka sellepärast, et kardetakse mingi jama väljatuletkut, mis muudaks tegelikud numbrid koledamaks?
See võib olla asja tegelik iva. Sest fakt on see, et Hispaania on probleem ning nad on seni üritanud seda hoida oma koduseinte vahel. -
Philip Morriselt järjekordne dividendi tõstmine, mis muudab aktsia vaatamata viimase kahe aasta korralikule tõusule dividendimäära koha pealt suhteliselt atraktiivseks
Philip Morris International increases quarterly dividend by 10.4% to $0.85 per share from $0.77 per share -
USA hulgimüügi varudes oodatust suurem kasv. Vaevalt, et see nõudluse taastumise ootusest on tingitud
July Wholesale Inventories +0.7% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus -
Nigel Farage'i kommentaar tänasele Barroso kõnele (link videole)
