Börsipäev 14. september
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kui päev Euroopa turgudel oli suhteliselt tagasihoidlike liikumistega kergelt negatiivne tingituna IMFi kommentaaridest, et Kreeka võib vajada kolmandat päästepaketti (mis riigi enda ametnike poolt ümber lükati), siis USAs januneti riski järele pärast seda kui USA keskpank lubas käivitada järjekordse võlakirjade ostuprogrammi. Stoxx 600 langes -0,2%, S&P 500 aga kerkis 1,63%.
FOMC arvates poleks Ühendriikide majanduskasv ilma täiendavate meetmeteta piisavalt tugev, et tagada jätkusuutlikku paranemist tööturul. Ühtlasi hinnati globaalsete finantsturgude ohtu riigi majandusele kõrgeks, mistõttu otsustati ilma lõpptähtajata hakata ostma ühes kuus 40 miljardi dollari väärtuses kinnisvaralaenudega tagatud väärtpabereid ning pikendada intresside madalal tasemel hoidmise lubadust kuue kuu võrra 2015.a keskpaigani. Koos käimasoleva Operation Twistiga (OT) ostetakse seega aasta lõpuni 85 miljardi dollari väärtuses võlakirju kuus ning kui tuleva aasta alguses pole majanduskasv piisavalt palju paremaks läinud, andis Bernanke pressikonverentsil mõista, et mahtu ei pruugita vähendada vaatamata OT lõppemisele ning käiku võidakse lasta täiendavaid meetmeid.
FED lubab küll abiks olla majandusele, ent samas peegeldavad nende otsused ning kommunikatsioon, et väga kindlad järgnevate aastate majanduskasvu tugevuses ei olda, mis omakorda ei anna palju lootust ka tööturul edasi paraneda. Bernanke rõhutas pressikonverentsil korduvalt, et neil pole imerohtu tööturu probleemi lahendamiseks ning kokkuvõttes üritatakse majanduse taastumist kiirendada, kuid kas see lõpuks ka soovitud tulemuseni aitab jõuda, selles ei ole keegi 100% kindel (eriti kui uuel aasta alguses maksutõusud ja eelarvekärped realiseeruvad).
Ja ehkki eesmärk on üllas, siis loob keskpanga rahapoliitiline kurss tarbija jaoks mugavustsooni, kus järgneva paari aasta jooksul pole kiiret kinnisvara ostuga, kuna FED on lubanud laenude intresse survestada veel tükk aega, mistõttu võib selle all ka majanduslik aktiivsus nõrgapoolseks edasi jääda.
Tegemist on pretsedenditu eksperimendiga, mille loodetav tagajärg ei ole garanteeritud. Bernanke üritab veenda inimesi uuesti ennast võimendama olukorras, kus majapidamiste laenuvõime pole veel korralikult jõudnud taastuda eelmisest mullist. Igaljuhul raha hoiustajatele armu ei anta ning maailm saab ilmselt mingis punktis tunda taas toorainete negatiivset survet.
Tulles tänase päeva juurde, siis Euroopas võiks tähelepanu pälvida Eurogrupi ja Ecofini kohtumised. USAs raporteeritakse augustikuu jaemüügi, tarbijahinna, tööstustoodangu muutused ning Michigani tarbijasentimendi indeks.
08.30 Eurogrupi kohtumine
12.00 Eurotsooni augusti inflatsiooni lõplik näit
13.00 Ecofin kohtumine
15.30 USA jaemüük (august)
15.30 USA tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus (august)
16.15 USA tööstustoodangu muutus (august)
16.55 USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi indeks (september)
17.00 USA ettevõtete varud (juuli)
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% plussis, Euroopa on avanemas 1,1% jagu kõrgemal. -
Viimase aja sündmused on sundinud Morgan Stanleyt korrigeerima EUR/USDi prgonoosi. Usutakse, et eurol on dollari suhtes ruumi tugevneda 1,3400 dollarini, ent järgmise aasta lõpuks oodatakse siiski jõudmist 1,1500 USD tasemele.
The highlight of our forecast change incorporates what we have been discussing over the past month in our research; namely, the Draghi “put”, amongst other factors, should keep us in an environment of USD weakness/EUR strength over another couple of quarters. To be sure, we remain medium/long term EUR bears and continue to forecast a trough of 1.15. However, the events that have unfolded over the past month lead us to believe that the near term risks to the EUR are to the upside, and that the longer-term bearish factors will not come to fruition until next year. As such, our preliminary forecasts see EUR/USD reaching a high of 1.34 by year-end before descending through 2013. -
USA väikeinvestorite läinud nädala sendimendi järgi on nüüd ruumi tõusta küll :)
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Panin USA Föderaalreservi viimaste aastate tegemised graafikule alustades QE1 programmi (kvantitatiivne lõdvendamine) väljakuulutamisest.
1) QE1 – 25.11.08 -> $600 miljardit „agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and agency debt“
2) 16.12.08 ->intressimäärad langetatakse 1% pealt 0.00%-0.25% peale; diskontomäär 1.25% pealt 0.50% peale.
3) QE1*lisa – 18.03.09 -> programmi suurendati $750 miljardi võrra „agency MBS and agency debt“ osas ning $300 miljardi võrra „Treasury’te“ osas.
4) QE2 – 03.11.10 -> $600 miljardit „longer dated treasuries at a rate of $75 billion per month“
5) Operation Twist – 21.09.11 -> $400 miljardi eest hakatakse ostma 6-30 aastat pikki võlakirju ning müüakse alla 3 aastaseid võlakirju.
6) Operation Twist*lisa – 20.06.12 -> $267 miljardi eest suurendati varasemat programmi ja jätkati pikemate võlakirjade ostmist lühemate arvelt.
7) QE3 – 13.09.12 -> kokku $85 miljardi (millest nii-öelda uus raha on $40 miljardit) eest kuus ostetakse „agency MBS“ ja vähemalt selle aasta lõpuni. Konkreetset lõppkuupäeva pole programmile märgitud.
Sisuliselt nendest seitsmest korrast kuuel on aktsiad samal päeval korralikult tõusnud, ühel juhul langenud (langeti Operation Twist teatamise päeval, kui oodati agressiivsemat tegutsemist). Viimastel kordadel on teate päeval turud tõusnud (v.a Operation Twist), kuid teatele järgnevatel päevadel samale tasemele alla tagasi tulnud ning seejärel veidi aja pärast kõrgemale edasi liikunud. -
S&P 500 ettevõtete järgmise 12 kuu oodava EPSi põhjal kaupleb indeks hetkel 13,07x kasumit aga ma julgen arvata, et kasumiootused on vähemalt lähikvartalite puhul natuke liiga optimistlikud ja tegelik PE suhe isegi kõrgem.
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Erko, ütle nüüd, kust sa Bloomies sellise graafiku said? ;-)
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Karum6mm
Erko, ütle nüüd, kust sa Bloomies sellise graafiku said? ;-)
SPX Index -> GE...seal on juba näha milliste suhtarvude graafikuid võib endale ette manada :) -
Tack! :-)
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Hispaania võlakoorem on teises kvartalis kasvanud 3 protsendipunkti võrra 75,9%ni. 100 mld bailoutist polnud selleks hetkeks vist jõutud midagi välja jagada, mis peaks esialgu samuti keskvalitsuse bilansis kajastuma ja hiljem ESMi alla liikuma
Spain total debt load rises 75.9% of GDP in 2Q, versus 72.9% in 1Q -
Eurotsooni augusti inflatsioon 2,6%, mis ühtis esilagselt raporteeritud näiduga. Nina on siiski ülespoole võrreldes juuliga
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ALOG +10.8% (also upgraded to Buy at Needham), TSRA +4.4%.
M&A related: SPLS +2.8% (continued strength on M&A speculation).
Financial related names showing strength: UBS +2.9%, IRE +2.7%, DB +2.6%, CS +2.5%, ING +2.2%, HBC +1.7%, RBS +1.7% (Royal Bank of Scotland still plans on floating its Direct Line insurance division, according to reports), BAC +1.1% (Bank of America has reached a settlement with US officials over disabled borrowers, according to reports).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +6.8%, MTL +4.9%, GOLD +4.3%, RIO +3.8%, BBL +3.1%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: STO +2.7%, E +2.1%, SDRL +2%, TOT +2%, RDS.A +0.4%.
Coal names seeing continues strength: ACI +4.7%, ANR +3.8%, WLT +3.1%, YZC +3.1%,
A few telecom related names are seeing early interest: TEF +3.2%, PT +2.1%, FTE +0.6%.
Other news: DV +4.1% (comments on strategic growth opportunies and turnaround plan at BMO Conference: expects continued growth in Brazil and positive enrollment comparison at Carrington in Q1), CLF +3.1% (continued strength), S +2.7% and RCL +2.7% (still checking), NCT +2.6% (announces the sale of CDO X interests), RDA +2.1% (announces declaration of a $1.20 per ADS special one-time cash dividend), NOK +2% (still checking), FB +1% (Facebook set to introduce a real time ad program, according to reports), DLPH +0.8% (announces new $750 mln share repurchase program), JOY +0.5% (positive mention on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: ABB +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas ), CF +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan), MMM +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill) -
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WERN -13.4% (also downgraded by multiple analysts), JRJC -7.1% (thinly traded), WDC -0.6% (announces capital allocation plan at investor day: targets return of ~50% of free cash flow to shareholders; intiates dividend of $0.25 per share; lowers Q1 revenue guidance).
A few WERN peers are seeing modest weakness: KNX -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), JBHT -1.3%, HTLD -0.9%, LSTR -0.4%.
European drug names trading lower: GSK -1.5%, AZN -0.8%, SHPG -0.6%
Other news: CUR -5.8% (announces proposed public offering, size not disclosed), FRAN -1.6% (cautious mention on MadMoney), TGH -0.9% (prices 7.5 mln common shares at $31.50; shares sold by co and certian share holders).
Analyst comments: VIAB -2.8% (light volume, downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Evercore ), TSL -1.1% (ticking lower, downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), LPLA -0.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS). -
August Core CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus
August Retail Sales +0.9% vs +0.7% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.6% from +0.8%
August CPI M/M +0.6% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus
August Retail Sales ex-auto +0.8% vs +0.8% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +0.8%
August Headline CPI Y/Y +1.7%; Core CPI Y/Y +1.9% -
This Market Is Still Breaking Out
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 14, 2012 | 7:37 AM
He who refuses to embrace a unique opportunity loses the prize as surely as if he had failed. -- William James
The market continues to celebrate the Fed's QE3 announcement this morning. All major overseas markets are up and early indications are for a very strong open.
The million dollar question now is "how far can we run?"
The natural inclination of many market players is to look for reasons why this strength cannot continue. Instead of embracing the momentum, they look for theories to doubt it. They are constantly digging up new reasons about why we are about to turn down.
Rather than look for reasons to doubt the momentum, it is often more constructive to look for reasons to embrace it. I've often seen Jim Cramer do this. While others are looking for excuses to be bearish, he will focus on reasons to stay positive and to stick with positions.
The very simply reason that this more optimistic approach tends to work is because momentum tends to be persistent. It doesn't die easily. A market that is at its highs doesn't suddenly reverse and go straight down. It may pull back and consolidate a bit, but the very nature of these big powerful moves creates strong underlying support and buying demand. There is performance anxiety with underinvested bulls anxious to buy dips and scared bears anxious to escape. The dynamics of strong momentum create the conditions for more upside.
Technically the market is a bit extended in the near term, but in the bigger scheme of things this is a market that is breaking out. Many folks find that a tough idea to embrace because they are so focused on the fact that worldwide economic conditions are so bad that the central banks are forced to act. But if we forget the fundamentals and simply look at the charts it is tough to be wildly bearish.
I see an article this morning that analysts at Credit Suisse are saying now that the S&P 500 is above key resistance in the 1,440 to 1,445 range it can move to the 1,480 level or possibly 1,500 over the next one to six months.
I don't much believe in target prices like that, but the important point of that sort of analysis is that the bulls have the ball and they are running with it. The bears have the burden of proving the bulls are wrong. These conditions do not support fighting the price action.
Since the market bottom in March 2009 one of the most difficult things to do in this market is to embrace these big rallies that we have seen so often. For many folks, the fact that the macroeconomic situation is still such a mess makes them very leery about trusting the market. How in the world can we be hitting new highs when Europe is falling apart, unemployment is so high and growth is so slow? There is a constant supply of economic concerns to make us wonder how the market could possibly keep running.
Another thing that has made it tough to really embrace these market rallies is that the nature of the price action is different than it used to be. It is often blamed on computerized trading, but the market has a much greater tendency toward streaky moves. When we rally, we don't just trend upward in a choppy fashion. We go straight up without a pause and constantly leave a crowd of underinvested bulls in the wake.
My best advice for a while now has been to stick with the uptrend and avoid the top-calling game. The bears have been destroyed lately looking for a sell-the-news reaction. As is so often the case, it just hasn't paid to constantly look for market tops.
We have a big open on the way, which should invite at least a little profit taking. But the momentum is extremely strong and the dip buyers are going to be aggressive if we do pull back -
Päike nagu paistaks kah eredamalt, kui kogu portfell rohetab. :-)
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Huvitav, kas makro kedagi enam üldse huvitab :)
August Capacity Utilization 78.2% vs 79.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 79.2% from 79.3%
August Industrial Production -1.2% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6% -
Ah mis - las nad seal tehastes kopsivad omaette, kui muidu ei saa (peaasi, et vaikselt ja ei sega) - mis turgudel sellega pistmist...
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Seepärast ehitataksegi turud kesklinna lähistele ja tehased tühermaale, no et siga ja kägu vastastikku karvupidi kokku ei lähe, tõsi lugu.
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Erko Rebane
Huvitav, kas makro kedagi enam üldse huvitab :)
August Capacity Utilization 78.2% vs 79.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 79.2% from 79.3%
August Industrial Production -1.2% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
QE4 lootus ilmselgelt -
Marc Faber jagamas Bloombergi intervjuus oma arvamust Fedi toimetuste kohta.
Faber Says Fed Policy Will `Destroy the World'
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kella viiene makro
September Michigan Sentiment- prelim 79.2 vs 73.5 Briefing.com consensus; August 74.3
July Business Inventories +0.8% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY
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come on party people....................
