Börsipäev 11. juuni
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Päeva algus USA börsidel andis karudele lootust näha kas või väikestki kasumivõttu aga üsna tuttava stsenaariumi järgi kasutasid ostjad nõrkust positsioonide täiendamiseks, mis viis S&P 500 sessiooni lõpuks tagasi nulli. Pullide jaoks pole hetkel midagi väga hirmutavat, mis sunniks kasumit laualt ära võtma ning kaela ei kardeta sellistelt kõrgustelt murda nii kaua kui majanduse käsi käib enam-vähem ning lootus kiiremat kasvu näha elus püsib. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 lõpetas teisipäeval 0,3% plusspoolel.
USA väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks paranes mais 1,4 punkti 96,6 punkti peale, murdes lõpuks välja pikaajalisest koridorist ning jõudes kõrgeimale tasemele alates 2007.a septembrist. USA hulgimüügi varud kasvasid aprillis oodatud 0,6% asemel 1,1% aga kuna müük paranes märtsiga võrreldes 1,3%, siis see näitab, et varude suurendamine oli pigem planeeritud
Maailmapank langetas öösel oma poolaasta aruandes globaalse majanduse tänavust kasvuprognoosi jaanuariga võrreldes 3,2% pealt 2,8% peale, jahutades sellega aasta alguse lootust, et kasv on üle mitme aasta taas hoogu kogumas ning suudetakse ületada sümboolne 3% piir. Maailmapanga sõnul jääb eurotsooni SKP kasv konservatiivseks (1,1%), enim kärbiti aga USA prognoosi, mis vähendati 2,8% pealt 2,1%le. Samuti nähakse jaanuariga võrreldes aeglasemat kasvu arenevate riikide puhul, kelle majandustoodang peaks tänavu suurenema varasemalt prognoositud 5,3% asemel 4,8%. Järgmise ja ülejärgmise aasta ootus jäeti globaalse SKP puhul samaks, siis peaks majandus kasvama vastavalt 3,4% ja 3,5%.
Tänane kalender jääb üsna õhukeseks, kui ainsaks põnevamaks näitajaks võiks lugeda Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlusi ja töötuse määra, mis veidi enne keskpäeva avaldatakse.
10.00 Hispaania kinnisvaratehingute muutus (aprill)
11.30 Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused ja töötuse määr (mai, aprill)
21.00 USA valitsuse eelarve tasakaal (mai) -
Rohkem kui poole käibest väljastpoolt euroala teeniva Zara kaubamärgi operaatori, Inditexi, esimese kvartali tulemusi survestas euro tugevnemine. Jaemüüja käive kasvas kvartalis 4,3% Y/Y, ulatudes €3,8 miljardini (arvestamata valuutakursside muutusi kasvas käive 11% Y/Y). Ettevõtte puhaskasum vähenes kvartalis 7,3% Y/Y ehk €408 mln peale aastataguse €438 mln pealt. Analüütikud ootasid käibeks €3,6 mld ning kasumiks €395 mln. Jaemüüja brutomarginaal langes kvartalis 58,9% peale aastataguse 59,6% pealt. 88 riigis tegutseva Inditexi kaupluste netoarv kasvas kvartalis 53 võrra, ulatudes 6 393 poeni. 2014. aasta septembris plaanib ettevõte avada internetipoe Lõuna-Koreas ning Mehhikos, suurendades internetipoodide arvu 27 riigini. Lisaks teatas 68,7 mld euro suuruse turuväärtusega Inditex, et plaanib teha 5-1 aktsiate spliti.
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Tänased reitingute muudatused ja kommentaarid
Whitbread Reinitiated Outperform at Exane, PT 5,000p (Close 4337)
UCB Rated New Buy at Citi, PT Eu75 (Close 57,94)
Stalprodukt Raised to Buy vs Hold at ING
Premier Foods Raised to Buy vs Neutral at Goldman; PT 75 to 90 (Close 57,75)
• Premier Foods’s balance sheet deleveraging may lead to an eventual re-rating, Goldman Sachs says in note, raises to buy from neutral.
• Valuation “undemanding” on unlevered basis, attractive on equity basis
• Steady cash conversion should help deleveraging, stay within covenants on new facilities, may be able to propose div. at end 2015
• Doesn’t see more equity raising
Vallourec Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 50 to 40 (Close 39,44)
• Vallourec has announced that Petrobras has decided to run down its inventories for the rest of this year, with an estimated €60m EBITDA impact in H2 2014E. In reality the group is guiding to 10% lower EBITDA in 2014E vs. 2013 or €820m and a c.€100m reduction to consensus.
Megafon Cut to Neutral vs Buy at UBS
Novolipetsk Steel Raised to Neutral vs Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $13,9 to $14,9 (Close 14,24)
Bpost Cut to Neutral vs Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 19,1 to 19,8 (Close 18,8)
Vallourec Cut to Underweight vs Neutral at JPMorgan ; PT 41 to 34 (Close 39,44)
Fraport Cut to Sector Perform at RBC Capital; PT 63 to 60 (Close 55,24)
Piraeus Bank Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT Eu1.40 (Close 1,92)
Alpha Bank Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT Eu0.80 (Close 0,76)
Nbg Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT Eu3.6 (Close 2,86)
• We are sceptical about the bull story for Greek banks. We believe the key drivers are likely to be macro rather than micro, and we see greater risks of negative than positiive surprises. As such, we prefer the higher-quality, stronger earnings generating NBG over Alpha and Piraeus.
UBI PT Raised to Eu7.3 vs Eu5.8 at Citi; Kept at Neutral (Close 7,26)
Playtech Added to Tactical Mid Caps List at Exane
Acciona Raised to Hold vs Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 31 to 60 (Close 62,74)
Exane Reinitiates European Hotels Stocks
• Rezidor (PT SK53), Accor (EU46), Whitbread (5,000p) rated outperform.
• NH Hoteles rated neutral, PT EU4.5; InterContinental rated underperform PT 2,200p
Carrefour Reinitiated Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT Eu26.40 (Close 26,99)
Vestas PT Raised to Dkk340 vs Dkk300 at Nordea; Buy Maintained
Vallourec Cut to Neutral vs Outperform at Exane -
Saksamaa lennukompanii Deutsche Lufthansa (-11,5% @ €17,56) aktsia tegi suurima kukkumise alates 2001. aastast, kuna ettevõte andis kasumihoiatuse. Lennukompanii langetas 2014. aasta ärikasumi prognoosi 1 miljardi euro peale ning seda eelkõige oodatust madalama nii pileti- kui ka kaubaveo müügitulu kasvu tõttu. Varasemalt prognoosis Lufthansa ärikasumiks €1,3-1,5 mld. Samuti langetas Lufthansa ka 2015. aasta ärikasumi prognoosi- €2 mld peale varasema €2,65 mld pealt.
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Suurbritannia töötute arvu langus oli arvatust veidi suurem, kolme kuu keskmine töötuse määr alanes aprillis 0,2pp võrra 6,6% peale, rohkem kui oodatud 6,7%. Inflatsioon on küll tugevasti alla tulnud, kuid palgakasv ei suuda sellega endiselt konkureerida.
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Hennes & Maurtiz on viimase aasta jooksul oma võrreldavate poodide numbrid kenasti jooksma saanud ning tänagi aitab mai statistika aktsiat ca 2% üles vedada uutele tippudele. Aga 23x järgmise aasta kasumit kauplev aktsia muudab juba päris paljud analüütikud edasise tõusu osas skeptilseks.
H&M Sales Rise More Than Est. in May
• Total May sales up 19% vs SME Direkt est. up 12.1%.
• 2Q sales SEK37.8b excl. VAT; est. SEK36.8b
• Total number of stores 3,285 at end of May vs 2,908 year earlier
• Says May sales positively affected by calendar effects of ~3–4 percentage points; reversed effect in June -
Airbusi aktsia müüdi -3,7% madalamale (@ €51,86), kuna Emirates teatas, et tühistab kogu oma A350 mudeli lennukite tellimuse. Emirates plaanis Airbusilt tellida 70 lennukit: 50 A350-900 lennukit ning 20 A350-1000 lennukit. Tellimus esitati 2007. aastal ning kohaletoimetamine pidi algama 2019. aastal. Tellimuse väärtuseks oli 2007. aastal umbes $16 mld. Rolls-Royce Holdingsi aktsia reageeris uudisele -1,8% langusega (@ 1057 penni), kuna Emiratesi tellimuse tühistamine vähendab nende tulevikutellimusi umbes 2,6 mld naela võrra.
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UBS ja Exane jäävad tänaseid Inditexi tulemusi kommenteerides suhteliselt neutraalseks. Tegevjuht tõi conference callil välja, et ettevõte üritab ülejäänud aastal säilitada stabiilset brutoksaumimarginaali ning kompenseerida FX mõju suurema müügiga.
Exane (neutral):
* Call confident, had few surprises, focused on Internet sales, new stores, concept image refurbishments
* Co. addressed FX concerns, suggesting meaningful improvement rest of yr if rates stay stable
* Not many details on gross margin, opex control encouraging
UBS (neutral):
* 1Q EPS decline less than estimated on better opex, financial income
* Weak emerging mkt FX, yen cut sales by 6%, may have caused gross margin drop
* 2Q to date in line with UBS ests., FX impact should slow, gross margin may rise a bit rest of yr
* Consensus ests. may not change much -
Danone kommentaarid ei mõju just kuigi julgustavalt Euroopa majanduslikku taastumist silmas pidades
DANONE TO CUT 100 JOBS IN ITALY, 70 IN GERMANY, 155 IN HUNGARY
DANONE TO CLOSE FACTORIES IN ITALY, GERMANY, HUNGARY
DANONE: ITALY, GERMANY, HUNGARY HARD HIT BY FALL IN SALES
DANONE CITES DOWNTURN IN EUROPE ECONOMY, CONSUMER SPENDING -
Keskpäeva suuremad liikujad Stoxx 600 indeksis
ADVANCERS:
* UCB SA (UCB BB) +3.2%; UCB5857, collaboration product with Sanofi, could be first to market worth $30b, Citi says; rates new buy
* J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY LN) +2.2%; Maintains forecast; 1Q outperforms Tesco, Morrison
* Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) +2.1%; Software to regain status as growth driver, Oddo says; raises to buy; stock at highest in 8 months
DECLINERS:
* Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM) -20.8%; Halted, limit down; jumped 44% in past 2 days
* Vallourec SA (VK FP) -12%; Cuts Ebitda forecast, cites significant reduction in demand for oil & gas unit in Brazil, EMEA -
* Boeing : RBC cuts to sector perform from outperform rating
* Apple : Nomura, Deutsche Bank adjust target price on the stock
* Amazon.com : Goldman Sachs raises to conviction buy from buy - Theflyonthewall.com
* Pharmaceuticals:Jefferies ups target on Merck, J&J, others
* B/E Aerospace : Jefferies cuts to hold from buy; price target to $97 from $107
Following is a summary of research actions on U.S. companies reported by Reuters on Wednesday.
Stock entries are in alphabetical order.
* 3D Systems Corp : RBC cuts target price to $64 from $78; rating outperform
* Abbvie : Jefferies raises price target to $66; rating buy
* Abbott : Jefferies raises price target to $49; rating buy
* Achillion Pharmaceuticals : Baird raises to outperform; target price to $12
* Actavis : Wells Fargo starts with outperform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Amazon.Com : Goldman Sachs raises to conviction buy from buy - Theflyonthewall.com
* Apple : Nomura adjusts target price to $88.71 to reflect stock split; neutral
* Apple : Deutsche Bank adjusts target to $105 from $650 to reflect stock split;
* Apple : Deutsche Bank keeps buy rating
* Arbor Realty Trust : MLV Equity Research starts with buy; price target $9
* Avanir Pharmaceuticals : Jefferies raises price target to $5 from $4; rating hold
* B/E Aerospace : Jefferies cuts to hold from buy
* B/E Aerospace : Jefferies cuts price target to $97 from $107
* B/E Aerospace : Canaccord Genuity cuts to hold from buy; target to $98 from $100
* Boeing : RBC cuts to sector perform from outperform rating
* Box Ships : Barclays cuts to underweight from equal weight rating
* Brandywine Realty Trust : Stifel raises target price to $16.50 from $15; rating buy
* Bristol-Myers : Jefferies cuts price target to $47; rating hold
* Canadian Pacific Railway : BMO raises price target to $215 from $205; outperform
* Casey's General Stores : Raymond James raises target to $80 from $77; outperform
* Covanta Holding Corp : Credit Suisse raises price target to $22 from $19; neutral
* Covanta Holding Corp : Baird raises price target to $23 from $21; rating outperform
* Devon Energy : Bofa Merrill resumes coverage with buy - Theflyonthewall.com
* Diana Containerships : Barclays cuts to underweight from equal weight rating
* Diana Containerships : Barclays cuts target price to $2 from $3
* Diana Shipping : Barclays raises to equal weight from underweight rating
* Diana Shipping : Barclays raises target price to $12 from $11
* Edwards Lifesciences : JMP Securities ups to market outperform from market perform
* Endeavour International : Canaccord Genuity cuts price target to $2 from $3; hold
* Endo : Wells Fargo starts with outperform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Expedia : Exane BNP Paribas initiates with an outperform rating
* Francesca's Holdings Corp : Keybanc cuts price target to $20 from $22; rating buy
* Francesca's Holdings Corp : Susquehanna cuts target to $18 from $21; positive
* Francesca's Holdings Corp : Mizuho cuts price target to $14 from $16; neutral
* Francesca's Holdings Corp : RBC cuts target price to $23 from $28; outperform
* Grupo Financiero Galicia : JP Morgan cuts to underweight from neutral rating
* HD Supply Holdings : Morgan Stanley raises target to $30 from $28; equal weight
* HD Supply Holdings : Baird raises price target to $32 from $30; rating outperform
* HD Supply Holdings : Credit Suisse raises target price to $33 from $27; outperform
* Hospira : Wells Fargo starts with market perform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Impax Laboratories : Wells Fargo starts with market perform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Investors Bancorp : Barclays revises target to $12 from $27; rating equal-weight
* Investors Bancorp : KBW cuts price target to $12.50 from $26; rating outperform
* Ikang Healthcare Group : Oppenheimer raises target to $19 from $16; outperform
* J&J : Jefferies raises price target to $110; rating hold
* Jazz Pharma : Wells Fargo starts with outperform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Kapstone Paper And Packaging : KeyBanc raises price target to $35 from $30; buy
* Lpath : MLV Equity Research cuts price target to $11 from $13; rating buy
* Marvell Technology Group : Nomura raises to buy from neutral
* McGraw Hill Financial : FBR raises price target to $103 from $92; outperform
* Merck : Jefferies raises price target to $63; rating hold
* Metlife Inc : Barclays raises target price to $65 from $62; rating overweight
* Micron Technology : Credit Suisse raises price target to $50 from $30; outperform
* Molson Coors : Bofa Merrill raises to buy from underperform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Mylan : Wells Fargo starts with outperform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Ocera Therapeutics : JMP starts with market outperform rating; $15 price target
* Parexel International Corp : ISI Group cuts to buy from strong buy rating
* Performant Financial : SunTrust Robinson raises target to $11.75 from $10.75; buy
* PPL Corp : Jefferies raises price target to $38.50 from $38; rating buy
* Qualcomm : Nomura raises price target to $90; rating buy
* Regado Biosciences : Jefferies starts with buy; price target $14
* Resmed Inc : JP Morgan raises to overweight from neutral rating - Streetinsider.com
* Reynolds American : Bofa Merrill raises to buy from neutral - Theflyonthewall.com
* SAIC : JP Morgan raises target price to $47 from $41; rating overweight
* Salix Pharmaceuticals : Wells Fargo starts with market perform-Theflyonthewall.com
* Skyworks Solutions Inc : Brean Capital raises target price to $54 from $51; buy
* Spectrum Brands Holdings : BMO raises target price to $94 from $91; outperform
* Synaptics Inc : JP Morgan raises price target to $86 from $80; rating overweight
* Synaptics Inc : Pacific Crest raises target price to $110 from $80; outperform
* Synaptics Inc : Cowen and Company raises target price to $100 from $90; outperform
* Synaptics Inc : Stifel raises target price to $86 from $83; rating buy
* TD Ameritrade : Credit Suisse cuts price target to $33 from $35; rating neutral
* Tenet Healthcare Corp : Mizuho raises price target to $59 from $52; rating buy
* Teva Pharmaceutical : Wells Fargo starts with market perform - Theflyonthewall.com
* Triangle Petroleum : Wunderlich raises price target to $14 from $12; buy
* Triangle Petroleum : Canaccord Genuity raises price target to $13 from $12; buy
* Ulta : Jefferies raises price target to $92 from $88; rating hold
* Ulta : Cowen and Company raises target price to $100 from $98; market perform
* United Natural Foods Inc : BB&T Capital cuts target price to $81 from $83; buy
* Washington REIT : JP Morgan raises target price to $26 from $23; rating underweight
* Zoetis : Jefferies raises price target to $37; rating buy
