Börsipäev 30. detsember
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Kuigi Kreeka presidendivalimiste kolmanda vooru läbikukkumine tekitas korraks müügisurvet, aitasid ostjad üsna kiiresti nii Euroopa kui USA aktsiaturgudel tagasi positiivsesse tsooni liikuda. Samuti jättis turuosalisi külmaks nafta 2% langus (WTI sulgus 53,6 dollaril barreli eest), kui energiasektori aktsiad kosusid samal ajal 0,2%. Aasta lõpp ei ole harilikult see aeg, kus võiks turu liikumisi väga tõsiselt võtta, mistõttu tuleb oodata jaanuari algust, mil likviidsus naaseb.
Majandusuudised jäid pigem teisejärguliseks. Itaalia tarbijate kindlustunde indeks langes detsembris 100,2 punkti pealt 99,7 punktile, mis oli madalaim tase alates veebruarist ning jäi alla ka analüütikute 100,4punktisele ootusele. Vaatamata peaminister Matteo Renzi reformidele ning maksukärbetele, ei tunne tarbijad, et nende majanduslik seis või väljavaade oleksid sellest kuidagi paremaks muutunud, pigem vastupidi ja see paraku ei räägi tarbimise võimaliku hoogustumise kasuks.
Ühendriikides aga valmistas järjekordne regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus pettumuse, kui Dallase piirkonna ettevõtted viitasid detsembris ärikliima aeglasemale kasvule. Küsitlusel põhinev indeks alanes novembri 10,5 punkti pealt 4,1 punkti peale, mis oli madalaim alates veebruarist ning jäi nõrgemaks ka analüütikute prognoositud 9,0 punktist. Nafta puurimine ja töötlemine on Texase osariigi jaoks olulise tähtsusega, mistõttu on naftahinna langus pannud paljude sektorite esindajaid muretsema.
Liikudes tänase börsipäeva juurde, siis kuigi palju põnevat majandusuudised ei paku. Euroopas selguvad Hispaania detsembrikuu esmane inflatsioon ja jaemüük ning Itaalia ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks. Ühendriikides on tähelepanu tarbijate detsembrikuu kindlustunde indeksil.
10.00 Hispaania jaemüük (november)
10.00 Hispaania inflatsioon (detsember)
11.00 Itaalia ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (detsember)
11.00 Eurotsooni M3 rahapakkumine
16.00 USA S&P/Case Shilleri majade hinnaindeks (oktoober)
17.00 USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (detsember) -
BlackRocki 2015.a väljavaates palju head lugemist. Link
Easy monetary policy has suppressed volatility and pushed up asset prices across the board. Many assets look cheap only because everything else is so expensive. Valuations range from sky-high (safe-haven government bonds) to average (most credit and developed equities).
The bottom line on valuations: We have picked the low- hanging fruit and are now high up on an increasingly shaky
ladder, reaching for the remainder. It is an accident waiting to happen—unless we occasionally take a few steps back to make sure the ladder is well balanced.
The financial market cycle has moved ahead of the economic one in many countries, partly as a result of QE. A torrent of monetary stimulus did not just suppress volatility, but pulled forward financial activity as well. Our complacency gauge once again is flashing red. Note: We still expect U.S. high yield to perform well in the near term due to solid U.S. growth and low default rates.Yet our gauge suggests we are closer to the end of the financial cycle than the economic cycle. -
Värsked küsitlused Kreekas viitavad Syriza edu marginaalsele vähenemisele. Peaministri partei seevastu on võitnud toetust veidi juurde
* Syriza opposition party gets 28.1% in Marc survey of voting intentions published by Alpha TV vs 28.3% in similar poll on Dec.23.
* Greek PM Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy party gets 25.1% vs 24.8%
* To Potami, or River, a centrist party founded this year is 3rd with 6.1%, nationalist Golden Dawn 4th with 5.9%, Communist party 5th with 5.4%
* Pasok, junior coalition partner in govt that fell yday, 6th with 4.6%, Independent Greeks 7th with 3%
* Almost one third, or 31.1%, of those surveyed said they’d prefer for Greece’s next govt to be a coalition with ND as main party vs 23.7% who favored a Syriza led coalition
* 29.7% said Samaras better able to deal with Greece’s problems vs 25% who favored Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras
* Marc questioned 1,017 people on Dec. 26-28, no margin of error given -
Hispaania deflatsioon süvenes detsembris -1,1%ni (novembris -0,4% ja analüütikute ootus -0,7%). Kuna see hõlmab ka energiahindasid, on tõenäoliselt suur osa langusest tingitut sellest. Tuuminflatsiooni sedapuhku ei avaldatud.
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Hispaania hooajaliselt korrigeeritud jaemüük kasvas novembris YoY 1,9%, kiiremini kui oktoobris registreeritud 1,0% ning analüütikute oodatud 0,8%.
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Civeo, kes pakub Kanadas ja Austraalias puurimise ja kaevandusega tegelevate ettevõtete töötajatele majutust, tõmbas eile oma tuleva aasta prognoose tugevasti madalamale ning peatab dividendide maksmise. Võimalik, et see on märgiks, kui valusalt nafatahinna langusest koomale tõmmatud energiaettevõtete kapitalikulutused hakkavad sektorit teenindavaid firmasid hammustama. Aktsia langes järelkauplemise ajal ligi 30%
Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees Q1 (Mar) revs of $160-175 mln vs. $228.20 mln Capital IQ Consensus; EBITDA $45-55 mln.
Co issues downside guidance for FY15 (Dec), sees FY15 (Dec) revs of $540-600 mln vs. $815.00 mln Capital IQ Consensus; EBITDA $135-160 mln. -
Marc Faberi eilne intervjuu Bloombergile, ütleb järgmine aasta toob rohkem volatiilsust, mis näib ka paljude teiste majade üks prognoose olevat.
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Itaalia ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks paranes detsembris ühe punkti võrra 97,5 punktini vs oodatud 96,7 punkti
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Euroalas on ettevõtetele (va finants) väljastatud laenude mahud mullusega võrreldes jätkuvalt vähenemas, kuid langustempo aeglustus novembris -1,6%ni
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Gapping up:
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: NEM +1.1%, SLV +0.9%, GG +0.7%, GDX +0.4%.
A few Brazil related names are seeing modest strength: VALE +1.5% BBD +1.4%, ABEV +0.6%, PBR +1.2% (will release its Q3 2014 financial statements in January 2015 without the PricewaterhouseCoopers external auditors' report, reiterates that it is reviewing its planning for the year 2015).
Other news: OGXI +19.8% (announces that it has executed an initial agreement with Teva to regain rights to custirsen; will receive a $27 million payment from Teva), XNPT +13% (positive analyst comments on CNBC), NDRM +9.1% (announces topline results of Phase IIa Pharmacokinetic Study of ND0612H and ND0612L; results suggest may provide an effective therapy alternative to current treatments requiring surgery), CJJD +7.3% (after 26% move higher yesterday), RPRX +6.2% (updates Androxal global regulatory status; initiates two Phase 2B Uterine Fibroid Studies), ARCP +4.4% (Corvex discloses 7.1% stake in 13D - had discussions to explore additions to the Board; American Realty Capital says 'he Board will continue to prioritize transparency and an open dialogue with all stockholders'), FMD +3.7% (HC2 Investment Securities discloses 8.56% active stake in 13D filing), TKMR +2.5% (light volume; ongoing volatility in select ebola related names), IDRA +2.2% (provides updates on clinical development of IMO-8400 for Treatment of Waldenstrom's Macroglobulinemia; confirms FDA grants Orphan Drug Designation for IMO-8400), PTRY +1.1% (Gabelli discloses 5.24% active stake in 13D filing ), BBY +1.1% (Jon Najarian said he was a buyer), GRPN +0.8% (Goldman Sachs may soon invest in GRPN unit, according to NYPost ), CKH +0.7% (announces $150 mln increase in share repurchase authorization), KLIC +0.4% (acquires 100% equity stake of Assembléon B.V., in an all cash transaction for $98 mln), OAS +0.4% (ticking higher; SPO Partners discloses 7.1% stake; has had discussions with mgmt and intends to continue to discuss matters, including strategic alternatives).
Analyst comments: CNV +3% (ticking higher, initiated by several analysts)
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing guidance: CVEO -27.4% (also D.E. Shaw & Co discloses 5.1% passive stake in 13G filing).
M&A news: JST -4.8% (thinly traded; announces termination of going private transaction).
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: CPE -4.4%, SDRL -2.4% (Seadrill Ltd announces it has exercised a purchase option for the West Polaris from Ship Finance; purchase option price is $456 mln and total consideration payable to Ship Finance is $108 mln ), RDS.A -1.9%, CEO -1.7%, BP -1.5%, RIG -1.3%, TOT -1.2%, STO -1.1%, COP -0.9%, CVX -0.7%.
Other news: MDBX -13.9% ( will amend and restate its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2013, the third and fourth quarters of 2013 and the first three quarters of 2014), CXW -3.5% (announces that the Federal Bureau of Prisons elected not to renew its contract at CCA's owned and operated 2,016-bed Northeast Ohio Correctional Center), JUNO -3.2% (recent IPO name -- modestly pulling back), LAKE -3% / APT -3% (following intraday move higher on Scotland Ebola news), SNN -2.2% (still checking for anything specific), TM -1.4% (execs comments suggested that company will miss this year's goal for sales), BBL -1.3% (following overseas weakness in Australian miners), BHP -1% (following overseas weakness in Australian miners), FSLR -0.9% (Gordon Johnson said short FSLR on Fast Money), UBNK -0.8% (unveils q4 restructuring initiatives).
Analyst comments: BBT -1.4% ( downgraded to Hold from Buy at Rafferty Capital ), ARR -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at MLV & Co)
Allikas: Briefing.com -
NDRM - ei leitud kaubeldavate hulgast ...
