Börsipäev 8. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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USA aktsiaturud kauplesid suurema osa päevast kerges plussis, kuid momentumi kadumine sessiooni viimasel tunnil viis S&P 500 indeksi -0,2% madalamale. Investoritel pole olnud probleemiks tulla suuremate miinuste korral turgu päästma, kuid tihtilugu indeksite kõrgemale lükkamisel on katalüsaatorite leidmisega raskusi. Ehk leitakse algavast tulemuste hooajast vastuseid paljudele küsimustele, mis investoreid hetkel vaevavad, kui täna õhtul lükkab karusselli mitteametlikult käima Alcoa. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 indeks pühadejärgselt 1,6% võiduga.
Mitmel pool Euroopas jätkus märtsis teenindussektori aktiivsuse paranemine, mis aitas kokkuvõttes tõsta eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori ühist PMId 0,7 punkti 54,0 punktini ehk viimase aasta kõrgeimale tasemele. Kuigi lõplik number korrigeeriti 0,1 punkti võrra allapoole, viitab see Deutsche Banki arvates esimese kvartali SKP 0,4% QoQ kasvule (neljandas kvartalis 0,3%).
Eurotsooni erasektori aktiivsuse taastumine ning samuti ka Suurbritannia ja Ühendriikide näitajad aitasid vedada märtsis globaalset majandusaktiivsust kajastava indeksi kuue kuu kõrgeimale tasemele, 53,9 punkti pealt veebruaris 54,8 punktini märtsis. Uute tellimuste ning tööhõive indeksi paranemine viitavad võimalusele, et globaalne majanduskasv võib jooksval kvartalil jätkuda.
Aasias kauplesid aktsiaturud öösel valdavalt plusspoolel. Jaapani keskpank otsustas ootuspäraselt hoida senist kurssi ning suurendada rahapakkumist aastas 80 triljoni jeeni võrra. Ehkki inflatsioon on energiahindade tõttu muutunud nullilähedaseks, on keskpank endiselt veendunud, et suudab majandusaasta lõpuks saavutada 2% inflatsiooni. Üheksaliikmelises nõukogus seisis hääletuses teistele ainsana vastu Takahide Kiuchi, kelle arvates peaks Jaapani keskpank vähendama valitsuse võlakirjade ostumahtu 45 triljoni jeenini, millest võib välja lugeda muret lõdva rahapoliitika võimalike kõrvalnähtude pärast. Jaapani jeen tugevnes pärast keskpanga otsust dollari suhtes 0,4% 119,75 jeenini, vähendades mõnevõrra ka aktsiaturu hommikust plussi (Nikkei +0,8%).
Tänase börsipäeva kaks peamist majandusnäitajat tulevad Euroopast, kui selguvad Saksamaa veebruarikuu tehaste tellimused ja eurotsooni jaemüük. Ühendriikides avaldatakse Föderaalreservi rahapoliitikat koordineeriva komitee märtsi istungi protokoll.
09.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (veebruar)
12.00 Eurotsooni jaemüük (veebruar)
21.00 USA FOMC 17-18. märtsi istungi protokoll
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% madalamal. -
Saksamaa tehaste tellimused jäid veebruaris oodatust nõrgemaks, kahanedes MoM -0,9% vs prognoositud +1,5%. Samas korrigeeriti jaanuari muutus -3,9% pealt -2,6% peale. Mullu sama ajaga võrreldes kahanesid tellimused -1,3% (oodati 0,5%).
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Royal Dutch Shell teatas, et ostab energiaettevõtte BG Group 47 mld naela eest ehk ca 50% preemiaga. BG aktsionärid saavad Shellilt ühe aktsia vastu 383 penni raha ning 0,4454 Shelli B-klassi aktsiat. Tegemist on nafta- ja gaasisektori viimase kümne aasta suurima tehinguga.
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Pictet värske kuuülevaade: World’s major economic blocs out of sync with each other
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Eurotsooni jaemüük kahanes veebruaris ootuspärased -0,2% võrreldes jaanuariga, mile MoM kasv korrigeeriti 1,1% pealt 0,9% peale. Aastatagusega võrreldes oli kasv 3,0% vs oodatud 2,8%.
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Erko, kas kasumiootusi on viimasel ajal veel langetatud? Ehk on Sul mingit head kokkuvõtet pakkuda?
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Need on paar nädalat vanad graafikud aga viimasel ajal näib ootuste langetamine olevat pidurdunud (pisut on Q1 prognoose isegi tagasi tõstetud). Energiasektor on peamine koormaja, sest ilma selleta oleks S&P 500 Q4 müügitulu aktsia kohta YoY kasvanud 2,0% asemel 4,8% ning Q1 ootus oleks -2,8% asemel +3,2%.
Aktsiakasumi puhul sama case: Q4 EPS YoY ilma energiata 3,7% asemel 6,8% (muidugi Apple andis toona kõvasti juurde) ja Q1 ootus oleks -4,9% asemel +3,1%.
Allikas:Factset -
Alcoa puhul on konsensuse Q1 EPS ootus korraliku Ameerika mäe läbi teinud. Mõni sent on küll aasta algusest kärbitud, kuid 12 kuuga ikkagi üle 2x tõstetud.
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Stoxx 600 kaupleb hetkel 0,2% kõrgemal, autotööstus on üks suurematest langejatest pärast paari analüüsimaja ettevaatlikke kommentaare. Teised aga jäävad optimistlikuks.
KeplerCheuvreux
* Moving to neutral from overweight in EU autos after “huge” rally
* Price/book (>1.8x) and forward P/E (>12x) are ~20% above avg
* Downgrades BMW, Peugeot, Continental, Daimler, Valeo and Brembo; upgrades Nokian Renkaat, Rheinmetall
* Renault, VW top picks; prefer OEMs, which are cheaper and more exposed to Europe demand upside vs suppliers, tiremakers
Morgan Stanley
* Downside risks becoming significant; SXAP cheap vs other sectors, not cheap vs history
* Prefer premium OEMs -- BMW, Daimler
* Avoid Renault on emerging mkt exposure
JPMorgan
* Staying bullish after meetings with 16 OEMs and suppliers last week
* Stronger volumes, currency tailwinds should push EU auto shares higher into 1Q results
* Pricing stabilizing with high discounts
Credit Suisse
* Analysis of March auto sales data in region shows “robust recovery continues”
* Sales grew 14% last month, +8.9% adj. for extra sales day
* FiatChrysler, Daimler, Peugeot outperformed; VW slightly under performed; BMW was laggard -
Venemaa uute autode müük jätkamas ootuspäraselt langustempot (YoY, %)
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SIMO +4.5%, HABT +2.8%, PLAY +1.8%, RAD +1.5%, MIND +1.3%, GPN +1.1%, RPM +1%, .
M&A news: ZEP +17.8% (announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by New Mountain Capital for $20.05/share in cash in transaction valued at ~$692 mln ), AGEN +1.2% (announces the acquisition of key antibody assets of Celexion), .
Select China/Macau related names showing strength: ZNH +9.2%, SHI +6.9%, CHL +6.6%, LFC +5.9%, EJ +5.8%, CHA +4.9%, WBAI +4%, LVS +1.8%, MGM +1.8%, HSBC +1.1%
Other news: EYES +18.1% (announces first successful implant of Model of Orion I visual cortical prosthesis), OPTT +13.6% (to proceed to the next phase of U.S. DoE Power Take-Off Technology Contract), PSTR +10.6% (cont strength), RGLS +9.7% (announced the selection of RG-125 for the treatment of Non Alcoholic Steatohepatitis in patients with type 2 diabetes/pre-diabetes, as a clinical candidate by AstraZeneca (AZN) under the companies' strategic alliance), PHMD +8.2% (still checking), ONVO +4.6% (cont strength), INO +4.6% (selected to receive a grant from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to lead a collaborative team to develop multiple treatment and prevention approaches against Ebola), BP +3.8% (in sympathy with RDS.A/BG Grp merger), NSR +3.6% (co and North American Portability Management entered into an amendment to the regional contracts, pursuant to which the Company serves as the national Local Number Portability Administrator), TSLA +3.1% (will upgrade base level Model S 60 to dual motor 70D ), TSLA +3% (confirms introduction of 250 mile range AWD Model S 70D on its blog), LODE +3% (announces high-grade intercepts from updated drilling in Lucerne), HLT +2.8% (mention in Daily Mail detailing news that China investors are looking at hotel assets), YY +2.4% (modest rebound following yday's decline), PTLA +2.1% (announces new topline data from Phase 3 ANNEXA-A Trial ), ADXS +2% (Advaxis and Merck (MRK) announce that enrollment has initiated in the Phase 1/2 clinical trial evaluating the combination of ADXS-PSA), ELLI +1.7% (announced that Independent Bank has chosen Ellie Mae's Encompass all-in-one mortgage management solution as its platform for originating mortgages), ARMH +1.6% (still checking), CPHD +1.5% (announced appointment of Ilan Daskal to EVP and CFO, effective April 9, 2015), TWTR +1.4% (cont strength), AES +1.4% (announces that its AES 3C Maritza East I (Maritza) subsidiary has signed a Heads of Terms Agreement with NEK, the state-owned wholesale power company), MRK +1.1% (announced that its Chronic Hepatitis C therapy Grazoprevir/Elbasvir has been granted FDA breakthrough therapy designation)
Analyst comments: WMAR +7.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley & Co), WRES +7.5% (initiated with a Buy at Noble Financial), MPO +4.9% (initiated with a Buy at Noble Financial; tgt $2.65), XRX +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), BDSI +2.2% (initiated with a Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald), DG +1.9% (target raised to $85 from $80 at Deutsche Bank), WPX +1.8% (initiated with a Buy at KLR Group), JBL +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), ZEN +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill), ICPT +1.2% (added to Short-Term Buy List at Deutsche Bank), ETE +1.1% (initiated with a Conviction Buy at Goldman)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PNR -3.3%, TISI -1.5%
M&A news: RDS.A -1.7% (confirms cash and share offer for BG Group (BRGYY))
Other news: TRCH -41.2% (VERY light volume, but announces it plans to divest certain of its Hunton Assets located in Logan and Kingfisher Counties, Oklahoma), AMZG -36.4% (announced entry into a Forbearance agreement with four holders, who collectively own or manage in excess of 50% of co's August notes), CBMG -10.5% (cont weakness), ATNM -10.3% (still checking; light volume), CPTA -6% (announced an offering of 3.5 mln shares of common stock; provides preliminary estimates of results as of April 7, 2015), CPTA -6% (announces an offering of 3.5 mln shares of common stock; provides preliminary estimates of results), LGF -5.9% (announced offering of 10 mln shares of common stock being sold by MHR Fund Management), MUX -4.7% (reported armed robbery at El Gallo 1 mine; an estimated 900 kg of gold-bearing concentrate containing ~7000 ounces of gold were stolen)), LBIO -4.2% (has flipped both pos and neg pre-mket -- announces that data from a metastatic cervical cancer study conducted by the National Cancer Institute was published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology), BIP -2.2% (announced $750.5 mln equity offering), TRCO -0.9% (proposed secondary offering of 9,240,073 shares of its Class A common stock by certain stockholders)
Analyst comments: WBMD -3.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ANGI -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley & Co), RGC -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney), TSL -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), CMI -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman -- Removed from Americas Buy List), YGE -1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), HCP -0.7% (initiated with an Underperform at BMO Capital), NEP -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman )
Allikas: Briefing.com -
Selget veendumust intressimäärade tõstmise osas pole ja samuti tuleb meeles pidada, et FOMC istung leidis aset enne, kui selgus märtsikuu oodatust nõrgem tööturu raport
Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting. However, others anticipated that the effects of energy price declines and the dollar's appreciation would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions likely would not be appropriate to begin raising rates until later in the year, and a couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook likely would not call for liftoff until 2016. -
Kas Teva ostab nüüd Mylani ära @80?
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AA avas traditsiooniliselt tulemuste hooaja täna, teatades oodatust paremast kvartalist:
Alcoa prelim $0.28 vs $0.26 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $5.82 bln vs $5.94 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Alcoa sees +9% of global aluminum demand in 2015; Prior outlook was +7%
