Börsipäev 1. mai
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Aprillile pandi üsna punane punkt (S&P 500 -1,0% ja Stoxx 600 -0,4%) ehkki uudised tegelikult olid positiivsed nii majanduslikul kui ka poliitilisel tasandil. Kreeka aktsiaturg rallis 3% pärast seda kui Alexis Tsipras kinnitas Bloombergi andmetel valitsusele, et kokkulepe kreeditoridega on lähedal ning seadis lõplikuks tähtajaks 11.mai. Ühendriikides langesid töötu abiraha taotlused 262 tuhande peale, mis on madalaim tase alates 2000.a ning tööjõukulude indeksi aastase kasvu kiirenemine 2,6%ni esimeses kvartalis (enim alates 2008) näitas, et tööturu lõtku kahanemine on hakanud viimaks palgasurvet tekitama. Samuti näitas aprillis taastumise märke Chicago töötleva tööstuse aktiivsus, mis kerkis indeksi kujul 6 punkti võrra 52,3 punktile (oodati 50,0).
Aasias olid mitmel pool aktsiaturud täna suletud, kuid sealgi osutusid osad majandusuudised oodatust positiivsemaks. Hiina ametlik töötleva tööstuse PMI püsis aprillis stabiilsena 50,1 punkti peal , 0,1 punkti võrra parem kui arvati. Jaapanis lükkas keskpank eile 2% inflatsiooni eesmärgi saavutamise edasi 2016. fiskaalaasta esimesse poolde, kuis täna avaldatud värske number võiks kinnitada keskpanga nägenust, et inflatsiooni aeglustumine on siiski ajutine, kui märtsi THI kiirenes 0,0% pealt 0,2%ni (kui välja arvata müügimaksu efekt ja toit).
Kuna mitmel pool Euroopas nauditakse täna vaba päeva, langeb makrouudiste raskuskese Ühendriikidele, kus selguvad aprillikuu töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeksid (PMI lõplik näit ja ISM) ning Michigani ülikooli tarbijate kindlustunde aprilli lõplik näit. Päeva jooksul laekuvad ka autotootjate aprilli USA müüginumbrid.
Ettevõtetest teatavad oma majandustulemused teiste seas Chevron, CVS Health, Duke Energy, Legg Mason, Wynn Resorts, Yahoo Japan, Suntory Beverage & Food, Lloyds Banking Group, Berkshire Hathaway.
11.30 Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse PMI (aprill)
16.45 USA töötleva tööstuse PMI (aprilli lõplik)
17.00 USA ehituskulutuste muutus (märts)
17.00 USA töötleva tööstuse ISM (aprill)
17.00 USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (aprilli lõplik)
??.?? USA automüük (aprill) -
Atlanta FEDi mudel, mis pani USA esimese kvartali SKP numbriga täppi, viitab teises kvartalis hetkel vaid 0,9% QoQ annualiseeritud kasvule, taas peajagu madalam võrreldes sellega, kus hetkel konsensus on hetkel oma ootustega
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Tere! Praegu EUR/USD kurss veel tõuseb aga kas teil on oma nägemus kui kõrgele see võib umbes tõusta? Kas tasemetele 1,3-1,4 kus ta enne langust oli on tõenäuline või ei?
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Valuuta on üks keerulisemaid instrumente, mida prognoosida aga arvestades erinevat rahapoliitilist kurssi USAs ja eurotsoonis, siis pigem usuks, et tegemist ajutise tõusuga ülemüüdud tasemetelt Samas ma ei usu, et euro läheb dollari suhtes uuesti pariteeti testima, kui just Kreeka saaga radikaalsema lõpu ei saa.
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Sarnaselt eurotsooniga on ka Suurbritannias töötleva tööstuse aktiivsus teise kvartali alguses oluliselt aeglustunud, kui PMI indeks alanes 54,0 punkti pealt 51,9 punktile vs oodatud 54,6.
Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at survey compilers Markit: “Coming on the back of weaker than expected GDP numbers on Tuesday and only six days before the General Election, today’s UK PMI delivered less than positive news on the health of the manufacturing sector. Rates of expansion in production and order books both slowed sharply in April, meaning manufacturing is again unlikely to provide much of a boost to broader economic growth. This keeps the emphasis for maintaining the recovery highly reliant on the service sector. “ -
Morgan Stanley toob LinkedIni targeti 10 dollari võrra allapoole 300 dollari peale aga ütleb, et aktsia -20% kukkumine tulemustejärgselt on ülereageerimine
2015 EBITDA Guidance...Core Numbers Only Come Down by 5%: LNKD's 2015 EBITDA guidance revision – reducing EBITDA guidance by $155mn, or 20% – was disappointing, but ~75% (or $118mn) of the reduction is driven by FX and one-time items (Lynda, other transition/transaction costs, severance, etc.) as core EBITDA guidance is only being cut by 5% (See Exhibit 1 ). No denying the $37mn core cut impacts earnings power and poor communication for the company will hurt the multiple near-term, but we view the 21% downdraft in the after-market last evening as an overreaction and would be buying on weakness. -
USA strateeg ootab suvel S&P 500 indeksi 5-10% korrektsiooni: S&P dips 8% this summer: Bianco
David Bianco, Deutsche Bank, says there's more downside coming for the markets and quarter two could be worse. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: WAVX +37.9%, OCN +13.2%, OXGN +12.2%, NTRI +10.1%, KCG +9%, ELLI +8.2%, TER +7.9%, LLNW +7.8%, LYG +6.9%, ATHN +6.1%, CENX +5.1%, AXL +4.7%, EXPE +4.5%, BRKS +4.5%, FEYE +4.4%, SWKS +4%, UVE +4%, AEM +3.4%, NTLS +3.4%, CEMP +3.2%, EEP +3.2%, MOBL +3%, SKYW +2.9%, NKTR +2.9%, NSU +2.9%, GILD +2.8%, GERN +2.5%, MXL +2%, MCO +1.8%, WU +1.6%, HABT +1.4%, BYD +1.4%, MNTA +1.4%, CVS +1.3%, LEG +1.2%, COHU +1.2%, CRC +1.1%, RGC +1.1%, THG +1.1%, CRC +1.1%, CHSP +1%, CBM +1%, FLR +0.8%
M&A news: SYT +16.6% (reports of Monsanto interest), ALTR +5.5% (report indicated that INTC was willing to go as high as $58 for its ALTR offer)
Other news: VLTC +11.9% (still checking), HERO +3.1% (announced extension of termination date of Hercules 261 contract), SRNE +2.7% (announced appointment of Mark Durand as CFO), AEHR +1.8% (announced an order receipt for an ABTS burn-in and test system from a Chinese customer), BHP +1.6% (BHP Billiton and Barbadoes sign exploration licences for two offshore blocks, Carlisle Bay and Bimshire), ELS +1.3% (filed mixed securities shelf offering), TSLA +1.2% (confirms it introduces Tesla Energy, a suite of batteries for homes, businesses, and utilities), CHSP +1% (acquired the Ace Hotel and Theater for $103 mln), MOS +1% (still checking), ALU +0.9% (slight rebound following yesterday's fall), LUV +0.8% (filed for offering of debt securities and common stock), FNMA +0.7% (released March 2015 monthly summary; Book of Business increased at a compound annualized rate of 0.4%), SCTY +0.7% (SolarCity and TSLA introduce affordable new energy storage services across the U.S.), THO +0.7% (acquired Postle Aluminum for ~$144 mln)
Analyst comments: CY +2.1% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham), ZAYO +1.9% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James), WU +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), CMG +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LNKD -20.3%, PODD -18.9%, HTCH -15.3%, ARAY -13.9%, (also signs agreement with MIM Software to develop adaptive therapy software ), PXLW -12.7%, CTRL -10.4%, CTCT -9.9%, FLS -7%, TRMB -6.6%, CTB -5.9%, FSLR -4.6%, (also - First Solar and Caterpillar (CAT) announce a strategic alliance to develop an integrated photovoltaic solar solution for microgrid applications), RKUS -4.1%, JDSU -3.9%, CHTR -3.8%, FRGI -3.1%, ABAX -2.8%, TRP -2.7%, TNDM -2.6%, DWA -2.1%, TUES -2%, (also appoints Melissa Phillips President and COO effective April 30, 2015), FBHS -2%, SPF -1.9%, SCSC -1.8%, HME -1.8%, POL -1.7%, V -1.4%, LNG -1.3%, MOG.A -1.3%, BMRN -0.9%, MITK -0.9%
Other news: TLOG -9.4% (announces public offering of common stock), NRX -6.7% (announced proposed offering of common stock; gross proceeds expected to be $30 million), AXAS -5.3% (announced the acquisition of an additional Bakken/Three Forks interest, the reaffirmation of its borrowing base and an operations update), FSLR -4.6% (First Solar and Caterpillar (CAT) announce a strategic alliance to develop an integrated photovoltaic solar solution for microgrid applications)
Analyst comments: BCS -0.8% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Berenberg)
Allikas: Briefing.com -
USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (APR F): 54.1 actual vs 54.2 estimate, 54.2 prior.
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USA töötleva tööstuse ISM kujunes oodatust nõrgemaks, samas uued tellimused paranesid
U. of Michigan Confidence (APR F): 95.9 actual vs 96estimate, 95.9 prior.
ISM Manufacturing (APR): 51.5 actual vs 52 estimate, 51.5 prior
New orders 53.5 vs 51.8. -
Nii Fordil kui GM-il kasvas USA automüük üle 5%
Ford April U.S. light-vehicle sales rise 5.4% missing estimate of 6.1%
General Motors April Total Vehicle Sales beats estimates, 5.9% vs. 4.6% expected
