Börsipäev 17. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Pariisi rünnakud olid küll eile kõigil mõttes, kuid arvestades seda, et enne traagilisi sündmusi olid aktsiaturud Ühendriikides langenud viimasest kaheksast päevast seitsmel ja Euroopas kuuel, aitasid ülemüüdud tingimused tuge leida ning lennutada S&P 500 indeksit 1,5% kõrgemale. Euroopas jõudis Stoxx 600 enne Wall Streeti rallit sulguda 0,3% plussis.
Olgugi, et eurotsooni tuuminflatsioon korrigeeriti oktoobris 0,1pp võrra ülespoole 1,1% peale, märkides kõrgeimat taset alates 2013.a suvest, nentis Euroopa Keskpanga peaökonomist Peter Praet eile, et regiooni majanduse tsükliline taastumine jätkub, kuid negatiivsed ohud pole viimasel ajal mitte vähenenud, vaid pigem kasvanud. Siin näeb Praet aga ohtu, et EKP peab oma prognoose taas allapoole tooma, korrates investoritele juba tuttavaks saanud mustrit ning tekitades küsimusi rahapoliitika efektiivsuse kohta. Esimese asjana peab Euroopa Keskpank detsembris otsustama, kas majandust täiendavalt stimuleerida, kuid üsna pea tuleb adresseerida juba järgmist küsimust, mida soetatud varadega peale hakata, sest üsna suur osa võlakirjadest aegub juba lähiaastail.
Ühendriikides valmistas novembrikuu esimene regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus pettumuse, kui New Yorgi piirkonna ettevõtete sõnul näitasid äritingimused vaid 0,7punktist paranemist, püsides jätkuvalt väga madalal tasemel (-10,7). Analüütikud lootsid näha taastumist -6,5 punktile. Mitmed alaindeksid kosusid, kuid jäid endiselt negatiivsele territooriumile: uute tellimuste indeks -11,8 vs-18,9 punkti oktoobris, tarned -4,1 vs -13,6 punkti, tööhõive -7,3 vs -8,5 oktoobris.
Tänase börsipäeva keskmes on Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute novembrikuu kindlustunde indeksid, mille puhul oodatakse just järgmise kuue kuu väljavaates veidi helgemat pilti (esimest korda alates märtsist). Ühendriikides raporteeritakse oktoobri inflatsioon, tööstustoodang ja majade ehitajate novembri kindlustunde indeks.
09.00 Eurotsooni uute autode registreerimised (oktoober)
11.00 Norra kolmanda kvartali SKP
11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (oktoober)
12.00 Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeks (november)
15.30 USA inflatsioon (oktoober)
16.15 USA töötustoodang (oktoober)
17.00 USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks (november) -
Uute autode registreerimise kasv aeglustus ELis oktoobris 2,9%ni, kuid mitmel pool oli tänavu tööpäevasid vähem võrreldes mullusega.
• VW Group sales drop 0.8% y/y; ytd up 6.5%
• PSA Group sales drop 1.5% y/y; ytd up 4.2%
• Renault Group sales drop 0.4% y/y; ytd up 7.1%
• Opel Group sales drop 2.5% y/y; ytd up 0.7%
• Ford sales rise 1.8% y/y; ytd up 6.5%
• FCA Group sales rise 7.7% y/y; ytd up 12.9%
• BMW Group sales rise 12.8% y/y; ytd up 11.9%
• Daimler sales rise 20.9% y/y; ytd up 17.5%
• Toyota Group sales drop 3.8% y/y; ytd up 6.4%
• Nissan sales drop 4.1% y/y; ytd up 18.1% -
Varahaldurid on valmis languseks, mis aga harilikult ei viita turu tipule, sest siis kipuvad emotsioonid olema laes. Võib-olla on seekord teisiti
Australian Funds Hoard Cash, Fearing Market Turmoil
A database of hundreds of local funds compiled by Morningstar Inc., a U.S.-based investment research firm, shows that Australia’s biggest actively managed equity funds held about 4.1% of their assets in cash at the end of September—significantly more than an average 2.4% only three years earlier.
Cash held by fund managers world-wide in September was the highest since the global financial crisis, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. -
Energiat, toitu, tubakat ja alkoholi arvestamata kiirenes inflatsioon Suurbritannias 0,1pp võrra 1,1%ni (oodati 1,0%), kuid ajalooliselt on tegu jätkuvalt väga madala tasemega.
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Rõivaste ostmise asemel on USA tarbijad kulutamas rohkem raha oma elamispinna renoveerimisele ja täiustamisele
Home Depot reports Q3 (Oct) adj earnings of $1.36 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.32; revenues rose 6.4% year/year to $21.82 bln vs the $21.77 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Q3 comps were +5.1%, and comp sales for U.S. stores were +7.3%.
Co issues upside guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $5.36 (prior guidance $5.31-5.36) vs. $5.31 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY16 revs of ~5.7% to ~$87.92 bln (Prior guidance $87.5-88.1 bln) vs. $87.73 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co sees FY16 comps of +4.9% (prior guidance +4.1-4.9%). -
Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute hinnang jooksvale majandusolukorrale nõrgenes novembris 0,8 punkti 54,4 punktile (oodati 55,2), samas kui tuleviku suhtes oldi pisut optimistlikumad (indeks kerkis 1,9 punkti pealt 10,4 punktile, ületades konsensuse 6,0 ootust).
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Wal-Martilt oodatust parem III kv EPS, kuid käive jäi konsensuse ootusele alla. Ettevõtte aktsia eelturul +2,2% kõrgemal @ $59,15
Wal-Mart Q3 EPS $1.03 vs. $1.15 a year ago
Wal-Mart Q3 EPS consensus 98 cents
Wal-Mart Q3 revenue $117.41 bln vs. $119 bln a year ago; consensus $118.1 bln
Wal-Mart Q3 U.S. same-store sales up 1.5%; consensus up 1.5%
Wal-Mart adjusts fiscal 2016 EPS outlook to $4.50-$4.65 from $4.40-$4.70
Wal-Mart sees Q4 EPS $1.40-$1.55; consensus $1.42 -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: IDI [/b]+16.2%, HOTR +11.5%, EROS +10.8%, NUAN +9.4%, CMCM +7.2%, SOL +4.5%, TGLS +4.1%, MBT +4%, JASO +3.3%, MY +2.8%, HD +2.8%, WMT +2.2%, RLGT +1.1%
M&A news: IDI +16.2% (will acquire Fluent for $100 mln in cash and 15 mln shares in stock), BUD +1.8% (cont volatility surrounding merger with SABMiller), P +1.2% (confirms agreement to acquire several key assets from Rdio for $75 mln)
Select large pharma related names showing strength: GSK +1.2%, SNY +1.1%, AZN +0.9%, NVO +0.6%
Other news: OCRX +18% (Announces Positive Phase 1 Results for Oral OCR-002 in Development for the Prevention of Chronic Hepatic Encephalopathy), VIPS +4.8% (cont strength), JKS +3.6% (in sympathy with solar peers reporting today), GOV +2.6% (announced the declaration of a pro rata distribution of approximately half of the shares of Class A Common Stock of The RMR Group Inc), HERO +2% (Soros Fund Management discloses 7.02% passive stake in 13G filing), JD +1.9% (cont strength), GE +1.6% (says offer to exchange shares of GE common stock for shares of Synchrony Financial (SYF) was 3.2x oversubscribed; Completion reduces ENI by $65 bln), SAVE +1.6% (favorable commentary on Monday's Mad Money), OHI +0.9% (filed for offering of common stock for selling stockholders), XCO +0.9% (shareholders approved amendment to effect reverse split; Board has deferred decision after regaining NYSE compliance for continued listing standards), JCP +0.8% (expanded revolving line of credit; plans to retire outstanding principal amount of its $500 mln Term Loan)
Analyst comments: PRAA +3.8% ( upgraded to Strong Buy from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), SHPG +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Leerink Partners)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SPHS -18.5%, DKS -15.3%, URBN -14.7%, CADC -7.7%, MDR -2.9%, (released presentation for today's Investor conference with FY16 outlook), A -2.2%, NWL -0.8%
M&A news: ANGI -9.8% (Board unanimously determines not to pursue the unsolicited proposal from IAC/InterActiveCorp)
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: VALE -3.8%, KGC -2.7%, GFI -2.2%, RIO -1.2%, AUY -1%, GOLD -0.7%
Other news: KBIO -17.4% (cont volatility pre-mkt), VIRT -14.1% (still checking), A NBG -9.3% (cont weakness), INFY -2.8% (still checking), SYF -2.5% (GE says offer to exchange shares of GE common stock for shares of Synchrony Financial (SYF) was 3.2x oversubscribed; Completion reduces ENI by $65 bln), SUNE -1.5% (cont pre-mkt volatility), BHP -1.1% (confirms that Samarco signed a Preliminary Commitment with Brazilian prosecutors in connection with the State of Minas Gerais), EQIX -0.8% ( to offer ~$750 mln of its common stock in a public offering)
Analyst comments: OSIR -10.7% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital), CLVS -6.9% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman; tgt to $23 from $123), ATHN -2.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), CHK -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee CRT), COO -2.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo).
Allikas:Briefing.com -
USA inflatsioon vastas ootustele, tööstustoodang arvatust pehmem, mida osaliselt leevendas töötlev tööstus
US CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) Oct: 0.20% (est 0.20%; prev 0.20%)
US CPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) Oct: 1.90% (est 1.90%; prev 1.90%)
US Industrial Production (MoM) Oct: -0.2% (est 0.1%, prev -0.2%)
US Manufacturing (SIC) Production (MoM) Oct: 0.4% (est 0.2%, prev -0.1%) -
USA pehmema kinnisvara statistika kontekstis siiani üllatavalt hästi vastu pidanud majade ehitajate indeks tegi lõpuks novembris vähikäigu, alanedes 65 punkti pealt 62 punktile vs oodatud 64 punkti.
