Börsipäev 7. jaanuar
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Naftahinna langus (WTI -5,5%), Hiina jüaani nõrgenemine ning arenevate riikide majanduskasvu aeglustumine hoidsid eile aktsiaturgusid surve all, kui Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 -1,3% madalamal ning samasuguse kaotusega tuli leppida Ühendriikides ka S&P 500 indeksil, mis teeb viimase puhul viie tööpäeva languseks 4,2%. Kuigi käibed on liikunud ülespoole, ei viita need veel paanikamüügile, mis annaks alust loota võimaliku põhja saavutamisele.
Eile avaldatud teenindussektori aktiivsusindeksitega sai kokku võtta detsembrikuu globaalses majanduses, mis paraku seisis silmitsi kasvu aeglustumisega. JPMorgani koostatud globaalne aktiivsusindeks alanes detsembris 0,7 punkti 52,9 punkti peale, sooritades sellega vähikäigu pärast kahekuulist paranemist. Kui arenenud riikides viitasid küsitlused majanduskasvu jätkumisele (eurotsoonis isegi kiirenemisele), siis nõrkuse allikaks kujunesid just arenevad riigid eesotsas Hiina, Brasiilia ja Venemaaga.
Õli valas tulle Maailmapank, kes langetas juuniga võrreldes maailmamajanduse 2016.a SKP kasvuootust 3,3% pealt 2,9% peale, mis märgiks eelmise aasta 2,4%ga võrreldes siiski paranemist. Maailmapanga peaökonomisti sõnul tuleb globaalsel majandusel harjuda suuremate arenevate riikide tagasihoidlikuma kasvuga, mida mõjutavad toorainete madalamad hinnad, vähenev kaubavahetus ja kapitalivool. Hiina 2016.a SKP prognoosi kärbiti 7% pealt 6,7% peale ja Brasiilia majandus peaks tänavu kahanema -2,5%.
Aasia aktsiaturgudele on öösel jõudnud järjekordne müügilaine, mis on tingitud Hiina börsi taas üle 7% kukkumisest ning jüaani nõrgenemisest dollari suhtes madalaimale tasemele alates 2011.a. Kuigi odavam valuuta võiks pikemas perioodis avaldada eksporditööstusele tuge, peegeldab vahetuskurss ühtlasi ka aeglustuva majanduskasvu tõttu riigist põgenevat raha.
Tänase börsipäeva olulisematest majandusuudistest võiks ära märkida Saksamaa novembrikuu tehaste tellimused, eurotsooni jaemüügi ning USA möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused.
09.00 Saksamaa jaemüük (november)
09.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (november)
11.00 Itaalia töötuse määr (november)
12.00 Eurotsooni tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (detsembri lõplik)
12.00 Eurotsooni töötuse määr (november)
12.00 Eurotsooni jaemüük (november)
13.00 Brasiilia tööstustoodang (november)
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
15.45 FEDi Lacker kõneleb majanduse väljavaatest
21.15 FEDi Evans esineb kõnega majandusest ja rahapoliitikast -
Saksamaa jaemüük kasvas novembris MoM 0,2% vs oodatud 0,5% aga oktoober revideeriti tugevamaks (-0,4% pealt -0,1% peale)
Saksamaa tehaste tellimused osutusid oodatust paremaks, kasvades novembris MoM 1,5% vs oodatud 0,1% (oktoobris 1,7%). Nagu näha, siis mõlemad on üsna volatiilsed näitajad. -
Brent vs euroala keskmine 95 bensiini hind koos maksudega (eurot tuhande liitri kohta)
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Väike ralli Hiina aktsiaturul sessiooni lõpus :)
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Erko Rebane
Brent vs euroala keskmine 95 bensiini hind koos maksudega (eurot tuhande liitri kohta)
Väga kiire järeldus oleks, et kütuse jaehinnas on suurenenud maksu, tegevuskulu ja kasumimarginaali komponentide osakaal? -
Arvestada tuleks ka teatava viitajaga, mis on täna jätnud üsna suured käärid sisse ka ilma maksudeta bensiinihinda vaadates. Lõplikult ei oska mina ka kõiki tegureid loetleda, millest bensiinihind sõltub, eriti kui vaadata spike'i 2015.a keskel, kui brenti kallinemine jäi sellega võrreldes oluliselt tagasihoidlikumaks.
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JPMorgan uut majandussurutist ei prognoosi
*Global Recession Not a Likely Scenario, JPMorgan Says
*Absent of recession, JPMorgan global small/mid-cap equity strategists see range-bound market with anemic earnings growth limiting upside to <15% and valuations that should prevent a >15% drop, according to note.
* JPM cuts small & mid caps to neutral vs large caps;
* For small & mid caps, JPM turns overweight EM vs DM;
* Within DM, overweight Europe & Japan, underweight U.S.
* Among sectors, raised energy/materials to overweight; cuts consumer disc. to neutral
* Remains overweight tech/industrials, underweight utilities/staples/telcos -
George Soros on teist meelt: George Soros Sees Crisis in Global Markets That Echoes 2008
• China devaluation transferring problems to the rest of the world
• Need to be very cautious investing
• Lending to developing world is now pulling back
• China facing big problem of finding new growth model
• China has major adjustment problems
• Return to positive interest rates a big problem for developing world
• Sri Lanka facing a very difficult external situation
• Sri Lanka is a bright spot -
Itaalia töötuse määr alanes novembris 0,2pp võrra 11,3% peale vs oodatud 11,5%
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DAX detsembri algusest -14% ning jõudmas lühiajaliselt ülemüüdud territooriumile
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Morgan Stanley toetub big datale, et täiendada oma traditsioonilisi mudeleid, ning saadud andmed viitavad USA jaemüügi (autosid, kütust ja ehitusmaterjale arvestamata) tugevale langusele detsembris (novembri tegelik +0,6% MoM). Allolevalt jooniselt näeb, milline on olnud MSi indikaator võrreldes tegeliku tulemusega,
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Eurotsooni jaemüük vähenes novembris MoM -0,3% vs oodatud +0,2% (oktoober revideeriti -0,1% pealt -0,2% peale). Töötuse määr jätkas langust, alanedes 0,1pp võrra 10,5% peale (oodati 10,7%).
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FT vahendab ühte ringi liikuvat nalja Hiina aktsiaturu kohta:
“Many people ask, ‘What is the circuit breaker mechanism?’ Actually it’s like this: You bring Rmb3,000 to play mahjong, but you lose it all in half an hour. The game is paused for 15 minutes so you can pop downstairs to the ATM to withdraw another Rmb5,000. You come back and quickly lose that too. Then the winner says, 'Your luck is too bad, let’s just end the game for today’.” -
Macy'se kasumihoiatusest võib leida ühe põhjuse, miks USA detsembrikuu jaemüük võis pettumuse valmistada
In the November/December period, we were particularly disadvantaged by the historically warm weather in northern climate zones where both Macy's and Bloomingdale's are especially well-represented. About 80 percent of our company's year-over-year declines in comparable sales can be attributed to shortfalls in cold-weather goods such as coats, sweaters, boots, hats, gloves and scarves. We also continued to feel the impact of lower spending by international tourists as the value of the dollar remained strong". -
Brasiilia novembri tööstustoodang YoY -12,4% vs oodatud -10,3%
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Kõik, Hiina, Baltikum, USA, kisub jälle hirmus punaseks. Kas on midagi tulemas?
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Punase ahvi aasta pidi tulema.
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USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused üsna ootuspärased
US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-02: 277K (est 275K; prev 287K) -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CLBS -32.1%, (provides 2015 and 2016 revenue guidance; announces an increased focus of its strategic priorities ), FINL -16.2%, RECN -6%, COST -2.5%, WBA -2%, KBH -1.6%, SIG -1.4%,
M&A news: ATML -8.3% (Bloomberg reporting that Microchip (MCHP) is reconsidering its interest in Atmel amid their continued business struggles), .
Select China related names showing weakness: JKS -6.7%, BABA -5%, CSIQ -4.7%, SOHU -4.7%, JD -4.6%, BITA -4.6%, BIDU -4.6%, CMCM -4.6%, WBAI -4.4%, SFUN -4.3%, JMEI -4.2%, YY -3.9%
Select metals stocks trading lower: VALE -6.5%, BBL -6.3%, RIO -5.1%, MT -4.9%, FCX -4.4%, X -3.5%, AA -3.4%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: WLL -9%, SSL -7.5%, BHP -6.3%, SDRL -6%, BP -5.2%, RDS.A -5.2%, PBR -4.8%, RIG -4.3%, KMI -3.9%, STO -3.5%, SLB -2.7%
Other news: TLOG -67.6% (announces that its Phase 2 study of birinapant co-administered with azacitidine in first line higher risk patients suffering from myelodysplastic syndromes did not demonstrate any clinical benefit over placebo), EPZM -23.3% (prices offering of 13,333,334 shares of its common stock at $9.00 per share), ARDX -15.1% (commences an underwritten public offering of up to $75 mln of shares of its common stock, updates guidance on the projected timing of its clinical trials for its lead product candidate, tenapanor ), GALE -13.2% (to offer shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase its common stock in an underwritten public offering), AKBA -11.5% (prices 7,250,000 shares of common stock at $9.00 per share), SAGE -6.8% (prices 3,157,894 shares of its common stock at $47.50 per share), ADMS -6.4% (prices offering 2,500,000 shares of its common stock at $23.00 per share), CEMP -6.2% (prices its downsized underwritten public offering of ~4.17 mln shares of its common stock at $24.00/share), PSDV -5.3% (proposed a common stock offering for an undisclosed amount), ACAD -4.6% (prices offering of 10,344,827 shares of its common stock at $29.00 per share), PRTA -2.9% (prices underwritten public offering of 2.25 mln of its ordinary shares at $53.00/share), ERI -2.3% (announced the departure of its COO and CFO)
Analyst comments: EXPD -7.8% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), EVDY -4.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel), ILMN -3.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), PAYX -3.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), APC -3.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), CMG -3.2% (target lowered to $450 from $500 at Wedbush), HPQ -3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), AAPL -2.5% (target lowered to $130 at RBC Capital Mkts), BRCM -1.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein)
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: NSPH +37.9%, MGCD +13.3%, (also reports unresolved manufacturer issue), ZUMZ +11.1%, (Zumiez reports December comparable sales -8.9% vs -13.8% Retail Metrics consensus; raises Q4 outlook based primarily on better than expected sales), MG +7.2%, FRAN +2.8%, GBX +1.9%, PLCE +1.3%, M +1.1%, (Macy's reports November and December comp store sales declined 4.7% y/y; Lowers 2015 EPS guidance), QUAD +0.8%
M&A news: EZCH +2.8% (Raging Capital supports transaction with Mellanox (MLNX))
Select gold/silver stocks trading higher: HMY +9.8%, GFI +3.3%, ABX +2.3%, NEM +2.2%, AEM +2.1%, GOLD +2%, GDX +1.5%, PAAS +1.3%, .
Other news: CRDC +42.9% (amended license agreement with Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)), DVAX +29.8% (reports top line results of Phase 3 HEPLISAV-B study; Both co-primary endpoints were met), BIND +14.7% (Presents Complete Data on Clinical Activity of BIND-014 in Patients with Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer), QURE +12% (announced it will release topline results from its Hemophilia B Phase I/II gene therapy low-dose cohort clinical trial tomorrow morning), MSTX +7% (provides business update, Enrollment in largest-ever interventional Phase 3 trial in sickle cell disease has surpassed 90%), ZIXI +2.7% (approves $15 mln share repurchase program), DNN +2.7% (announced that preparations for its 2016 uranium exploration programs in the Athabasca Basin have commenced and that exploration drilling is scheduled to begin on January 12), CCO +2.5% (following late move higher on LAMR asset interest)
Analyst comments: N/A
Allikas: Briefing.com -
Võib-olla isegi positiivne uudis, kuna enam pole -7% targetit, mis mõjub uksena kust kõik üritavad välja pressida.
CHINA SUSPENDS STOCK CIRCUIT BREAKER RULE, CSRC SAYS ON WEIBO -
David Rosenberg vaidleb George Sorosele vastu: George Soros Says We're in a Crisis: Is He Right?
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BofAML sentimendi indikaator on väga pessimistlikuks muutunud
