Börsipäev 14. aprill
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Finantssektor võttis eile energiafirmadelt turu veduri rolli üle tänu JPMorgani esimese kvartali majandustulemustele, mis näitasid taaskord, et analüütikud on ootuste langetamisega liialt pessimistlikuks muutunud. Kas JPMorgan jääb pigem erandiks, seda näitavad lähipäevadel juba teiste suurpankade tulemused. S&P 500 murdis läbi aprilli alguse vastupanutasemest ning sulgus 1,0% tõusuga rohkem kui nelja kuu kõrgeimas punktis. Ka Euroopas sooritasid aktsiaturud võimsaima ralli viimase kuu jooksul, kosudes Stoxx 600 indeksi näol 2,5%.
Ühendriikide märtsikuu jaemüügi statistika tekitas erinevaid emotsioone. Kütust ja autosid arvestamata kasvas müük veebruari baasil vaid 0,1%, osutudes oodatud 0,3%st madalamaks, kuid nii veebruari kui ka jaanuari muutused revideeriti positiivsemaks, millest johtuvalt kergitas Atlanta FED oma esimese kvartali SKP kasvuootust 0,1% pealt 0,3%le. Kuna paljud aga lootsid, et tarbimise hoog kiireneb kvartali lõpus, siis vastupidine areng jätab murelikuks trendide suhtes, millega liigutakse teise kvartalisse.
Laiemal tasapinnal jääb USA ettevõtete müügi langus suuremaks võrreldes varude omaga, mis alanesid veebruaris MoM -0,1% pärast sarnast taandumist jaanuaris. Tagajärjena on varude ja müügi suhtarv kasvanud 1,41ni, märkides kõrgeimat taset alates 2009.a maist ning vähendades tulevikus potentsiaalselt majandusaktiivsust, kui nõudlus ei kogu hoogu ning ettevõtetel tuleb kõrgeid varusid vähendama hakata.
22. veebruarist 7.aprillini kogutud info põhjal järeldasid FEDi kaksteist regionaalset haru Beige Book'is, et USA majandusaktiivsuse kasv jätkus veebruari lõpus ning märtsis, kuigi piirkonniti kiirus varieerus. Samuti jätkus tööturu tingimuste paranemine, tänu millele täheldati praktiliselt kõikides piirkondades palgakasvu ning mitmetes ka kasvu kiirenemist, toetades tulevikus potentsiaalselt tugevamalt ka tarbimist, mis moodustab USA majandusest kaks kolmandikku ning on viimastel kuudel jäänud arvatust tagasihoidlikumaks.
Pöörates pilgud tänasele börsipäevale, siis majandusuudistest võiks välja tuua eurotsooni ja USA märtsikuu inflatsiooninäitajad ning Ühendriikide möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused. Ehkki Suurbritannia alusinflatsioon jõudis märtsis kõrgeimale tasemele alates 2014.a lõpust, peaks Brexiti referendumiga seotud määramatus hoidma Inglise keskpanka senisel kursil ning jätma intressimäära 0,5% peale. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused enne USA turgude avanemist Bank of America, BlackRock, Delta Airlines, PNC, Progressive ja Wells Fargo.
12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (märtsi lõplik)
14.00 Inglise keskpanga intressimäära otsus
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
15.30 USA inflatsioon (märts)
17.00 FEDi Lockhart esineb kõnega
17.00 FEDi Powell esineb Senati panganduskomitee ees -
Viskan siia mõnede Euroopa ettevõtete tänased tulemused
Mothercare Says FY16 Overall Profit Within Range of Estimates
• Mothercare says 4Q U.K. LFL sales up 2.1%, with support from online sales up 5.6%, in trading update for 11-weeks to March 26, total U.K. sales up 0.8%.
• Says focus on full price sales led to another quarter of stronger gross margins in U.K.
• Says International continues to be affected by ongoing economic and currency headwind, retail sales at constant FX down 9.7%; all 4 regions saw a reduction in sales
• Says overall group underlying profit for FY16 within range of current market expectations
• Expects to make further progress in U.K. however international markets likely to remain challenging
Unilever Q Underlying Sales Growth Slightly Above Estimate
• Unilever 1Q underlying sales growth 4.7%, est. up 4.6%.
• 1Q volume +2.6%, est. up 2.5%
• 1Q pricing +2%, est. up 2.4%
• 1Q total rev. EU12.5b, est. EU12.8b
• Div. EU0.3201/share, BDVD forecast EU0.315/share
Burberry 4Q Retail Comp Sales Miss Ests., 2H Total Rev. In Line
• Burberry 2H total rev. GBP1.41b, est. GBP1.42b.
• 2H retail rev. GBP1.06b, est. GBP1.07b
• 2H underlying retail rev. unchanged, est. up 0.6%
• 2H retail comp sales down 2%, est. down 0.4%
• 4Q retail comp sales down 5%, est. down 1%
• 2H wholesale rev. down 1% underlying to GBP330m, says line with guidance
Casino 1Q France Retail Sales In Line, Hypermarkets LFL Beats
• Casino 1Q France retail sales EU4.55b, est. EU4.52b.
• 1Q France Retail same-store sales up 1.5%
• Hypermarkets up 3.8%, est. up 3.1%
• Casino supermarkets up 0.2%, est. 0%
• Monoprix down 0.4%, est. 0%
• Leader Price up 4.5%, Franprix up 0.1%
• Total Casino sales down 11% to EU9.71b
• Latam Retail same store sales up 3.7%, total sales down 14%
• Latam Electronics same store sales down 12%, total sales down 35%
• E-commerce same store sales down 8.3%, total sales down 19%
Nestle 1Q Organic Sales Growth Beats Ests., Confirms Outlook
• Nestle 1Q total organic sales up 3.9%, est. up 3.6%.
• 1Q real internal growth up 3%, est. up 2.5%
• 1Q pricing up 0.9%, est. up 1.1%
• 1Q total rev. CHF20.9b, est. CHF21.1b
• Confirms 2016 outlook: organic growth in line with 2015 with improvements in margins, underlying EPS in constant FX, capital efficiency
Sodexo 1H Rev. In Line, Adj. Oper. Profit Misses, Keeps Forecas
• Sodexo 1H rev. EU10.6b, est. EU10.5b.
• 1H oper. profit pre-exceptional costs EU658m, est. EU666.5m
• 1H oper. margin pre-exceptional 6.2%, est. 6.4%
• Confirms FY targets: ~3% organic rev. growth and ~8% growth in oper. profit excluding the currency effect and exceptional expenses
• 1H net up 4.7% to EU359m
• 1H organic sales growth 3.7%, est. 3.4%
• 1H organic sales growth by unit:
• North America 3.6%, est. 3.2%
• Continental Europe 1.6%, est. 1%
• Rest of the World down 4.4%, est. down 4%... More -
JPMorgani sõnul on ettevõtete aktsiakasumi ootuste langetamine hakanud aeglustuma
* Nearly all regions are observing improvements in their earnings forecasts, with consensus in Asia Pacific ex-Japan starting to bottom, JPMorgan quantitative strategists including Khuram Chaudhry and Viquar Shaikh write in note.
* Global sell-side analysts are trimming their profit forecasts at a much lower pace than before
* EPS revisions directly or indirectly capturing fall in USD, positively impacting U.S., Asia Pacific, EM, more than
Japan, Europe
* All global sectors continue to see more EPS downgrades than upgrades, However 7 out of 10 sectors have seen EPS revisions improve this month
* Global Materials have seen largest improvement in earnings expectations over the past month
* Global health care have seen largest deterioration in expectations -
Eurotsooni märtsi lõplik alusinflatsioon ühtis esialgse hinnanguga ning oli 1,0%
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BofAML'i fondijuhtide küsitluse järgi on vaatamata aktsiaturgude tõsule raha osakaal märtsis uuesti suurenenud
Average cash balances rose to 5.4% from 5.1% in March, just below the 15-year high of 5.6% hit in February, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s fund-manager survey for April. While a cash balance rising above 4.5% is typically a contrarian signal to buy stocks, the bank’s strategists note that it is only “superficially bullish” this time around. The combination of elevated cash levels and high valuations likely mean stocks and other risk assets will remain in a trading range, the analysts add.
Ka BofAMLi kliendid on 11 nädalat järjest olnud aktsiaturgudel netomüüjad
Clients still lack confidence in market rally Last week, during which the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US equities for the 11th consecutive week. Net sales of $1.7bn were smaller than in the prior week, but all three client groups (hedge funds, institutional clients, private clients) remained net sellers, led by institutional clients. -
Nii BlackRocki kui Bank of America müügitulud jäid oodatust nõrgemaks
BlackRock prelim Q1 $4.25 vs $4.30 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.62 bln vs $2.74 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Bank of America prelim Q1 $0.21 vs $0.21 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.7 bln vs $20.32 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Inglise keskpank jättis intressimäära ootuspäraselt 0,5% peale, võimalik Brexit tekitab ebakindlust
BANK OF ENGLAND MAINTAINS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE AT 0.5%
BANK OF ENGLAND VOTES 9-0 TO MAINTAIN KEY RATE AT 0.5%
BOE: RATES MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO RISE OVER FORECAST PERIOD
BOE SAYS UNIT-WAGE COSTS NOT CONSISTENT WITH INFLATION TARGET
BOE SAYS BREXIT VOTE MAY PROMPT EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY
BOE SAYS EU REFERENDUM MAY CAUSE SOFTENING IN 1H U.K. GROWTH
BOE: BREXIT MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POUND, ASSET PRICES -
Inflatsioonisurve andis Ühendriikides veidi järele, samal ajal aga püsivad töötu abiraha taotlused madalana
US CPI Ex Food and Energy (YoY) Mar: 2.2% (est. 2.30%, prev. 2.30%)
US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-09: 253k (est. 270k, prev. 267k) -
Jaapanis maavärin aga tsunami ohtu pole
Rports of magnitude 6.4 to 7.0 earthquake hitting Kumamoto. NHK reports that it's the strongest intensity earthquake felt in Japan since 2011. Bullet trains in Kyusho were halted after the quake.
There is no tsunami threat, according to preliminary reports.
It struck at 21:26 Japan time.
There are no early reports of widespread damage. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LUB +5.4%, PACW +3.3%, DAL +2%, SJR +1%, UN +0.8%
M&A news: SNTA +29.2% (to merge with privately-held Madrigal Pharmaceuticals; will acquire Madrigal shares in exchange for ~253.9 mln newly issued shares of Synta common stock), PLCM +4.4% (Mitel (MITL) merger speculation)
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +4.9%, WLL +2.4%, CHK +2.1%, MRO +0.9%
Other news: SUNE +75.6% (discloses completion of investigation by Audit Committee and Independent Directors), RPRX +17.8% (continued momentum higher), FMCC +8.9% (FHFA may release new plan to reduce borrower principal this week, according to WSJ), VSLR +8.4% (in sympathy with SUNE), ORPN +7.8% (scheduled to appear at American Academy of Neurology Annual Meeting tomorrow), CTIC +5.8% (continued strength), GLBL +5.3% (in sympathy with SUNE), WYNN +3.4% (CEO Steve Wynn acquires ~73k common shares), TERP +2.8% (in sympathy with SUNE), XON +2.4% (CDC concluded Zika causes microcephaly and other birth defects), FNMA +2.3% (FHFA may release new plan to reduce borrower principal this week, according to WSJ), EXPE +1.6% (favorable commentary on Wednesday's Mad Money), MNKD +1.2% (continued strength), LUV +1.1% (in sympathy with DAL (earnings))
Analyst comments: DDD +6.6% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), CMG +2.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), INSY +2% (initiated with a Buy at Janney ), BAX +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), IR +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: STX -10.4%, PIR -9.1%, DDC -6.1%, TSM -3.8%, BLK -2.4%, PNC -2.4%, BAC -1%, WFC -0.9%
Select financial related names showing weakness after BAC and WFC earnings: CS -1.9%, LYG -1.7%, DB -1.4%, BCS -1.3%, IBN -1.3%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: KGC -2.3%, HMY -2.1%, AU -1.2%, PAAS -1.1%, ABX -0.9%
Other news: EXXI -75.5% (filed volutary Chap 11), CHMA -8.3% (cautious Adam Feuerstein comments), WDC -4.8% (in sympathy with STX), CORR -4.7% (responds to Energy XXI (EXXI) Chapter 11 announcement, notes that Energy XXI GIGS Services has not filed for bankruptcy and the GIGS lease will not be effected), ERIC -4.3% (may be related to/in sympathy with TSM and STX earnings releases), STM -4.1% (may be related to/in sympathy with TSM and STX earnings releases), ARMH -2.3% (may be related to/in sympathy with TSM and STX earnings releases), SUM -2.1% ( announces 10 mln common share offering by selling shareholders, including affiliates of Blackston Group ), SUM -2.1% (announces 10 mln common share offering by selling shareholders), ASML -1.4% (in sympathy with TSM (earnings))
Analyst comments: CF -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Cowen), MOS -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Cowen), PEP -1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel)
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