Börsipäev 5. august
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Ehkki Inglise keskpanga otsus langetada intressimäära 0,25pp võrra 0,25% peale, suurendada valitsuse võlakirjade ostuprogrammi 60 miljardi naela võrra 435 miljardile naelale ning toetada täiendavate programmidega ettevõtete ja majapidamiste laenamist osutus paketina oodatust mastaapsemaks, piirdus mõju koduturuga, kus odavnenud nael kergitas FTSE 100 indeksit +1,6%. Ühendriikides jäädi ootama juulikuu tööturu raportit (S&P 500 0,0%) ning Euroopas liikus Stoxx 600 suuresti külgsuunas, lõpetades 0,7% plussis.
USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused kerkisid läinud nädalal kolme tuhande võrra 269 tuhandele, ületades analüütikute 266 tuhande suurust ootust. Kuigi vallandamiste tase jääb ajalooliselt küll väga madalaks, näitas statistika alles loetud kuud tagasi, et kõrgemate majanduslike ja poliitiliste riskide korral kahaneb üsna kiiresti ka ettevõtete huvi uusi töötajaid palgata.
USA tehaste tellimused viitavad ettevõtete investeeringute jätkuvale langusele, kui juunikuus kahanesid tellimused -1,5% võrreldes maiga, osutudes analüütikute -1,9% prognoosist siiski mõnevõrra paremaks. Volatiilset transporditööstust arvestamata kasvasid tellimused MoM 0,4% (oodati -0,2%), kuid jäid mulluse tasemega võrreldes -4,4% madalamaks.
Üle ega ümber ei saa täna USA juulikuu tööturu raportist, mis peaks analüütikute ootuste kohaselt näitama pärast kahte ebatavalist kuud 180 tuhande uue töökoha loomist väljaspool põllumajandussektorit, jäädes kuue kuu keskmisest veidi kõrgemaks (172 tuhat). Üsna olulisel kohal saab olema ka keskmine tunnipalk, mille aastane nominaalne 2,6% kasv on ajalooliselt jätkuvalt madal, kuid saavutas juunis kriisijärgse tipu ning edasine kiirenemine suurendaks keskpanga veendumust, et inflatsioon võiks liikuda tagasi eesmärgiks seatud 2% juurde. Mitmel pool Euroopas avaldatakse juunikuu tööstustoodangu näitajad.
09.00 Saksamaa tehaste arv (juuni)
10.00 Hispaania tööstustoodang (juuni)
11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodang (juuni)
11.00 Norra tööstustoodang (juuni)
15.30 USA kaubandusbilanss (juuni)
15.30 USA tööturu raport (juuli)
15.30 Kanada tööturu raport (juuli)
20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete naftapuurtornide arv (5. august)
22.00 USA tarbijatele väljastatud krediit (juuni) -
Saksamaa tehaste tellimused valmistasid juunis pettumuse, kahanedes MoM -0,4% ja YoY -3,1% (oodati vastavalt +0,5% ja -1,5%). Langus tulenes välismaise nõudluse vähenemisest.
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Hispaania tööstustoodang kasvas juunis MoM 0,2%, jäädes konsensuse 0,5% prognoosile alla. Mullusega võrreldes aeglustus kasvutempo 0,8%le (oodati 1,3%) ning PMi kohaselt ei tohiks juuli muutust paremuse suunas tuua
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Ka Itaalias kujunes juuni tööstustoodang arvatust nõrgemaks, kahanedes maiga võrreldes -0,4% (oodati +0,3%) ning mullusega võrreldes süvenes langus -1,0% peale (oodati +1,0%).
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Ajal, kui Austraalia keskpank langetas loetud päevad tagasi intressimäära rekordmadalale 1,5% peale, peavad aga sealsed suuremad kommertspangad vajalikuks deposiitide intressimäärasid tõsta. Link
--CBA will raise its one-year term deposit rate by 0.55 percentage points to 3% and its two-year and three-year deposit rates by 0.50 percentage points to 3.1% and 3.2% respectively, effective August 19.
--NAB will raise its eight-month term deposit rate by 0.85 percentage points to 2.9%!
--ANZ will raise its one-year advanced notice term deposit rate by 0.60 percentage points to 3% and its two-year advanced notice term deposit rate by 0.75 percentage points to 3.2%.
--Westpac will raise its one-year term deposit rates by 0.55 percentage points to 3%, its two-year deposit rate by 0.45 percentage points to 3.1%, and three-year deposit rate by 0.55 percentage points to 3.2%. -
Erko, millest selline ebakõla?
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ma ei ole ise põhjalikumalt Austraalia pangandussektorit uurinud ja teooriaid võib olla mitmeid alates sellest, et madalatest intressimääradest ja halbadest laenudest survestatud Euroopa finantssektor sunnib kapitali otsima jaeklientidelt, tahetakse et arveldusarve asemel hoiaksid inimesed oma raha rohkem deposiitides, mis muudaks kapitali panga jaoks pikaajalisemaks või tahetakse survestada väiksemaid konkurente
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Ei näe just igapäev, et Atlanta FEDi SKP ootus on peajagu üle konsensuse omast
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UPGRADES:
* Acxiom (ACXM) raised to outperform at BMO
* American States Water (AWR) raised to neutral at Janney
* Archrock (AROC) raised to sectorperform at RBC
* Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) raised to buy at Stifel
* EP Energy (EPE) raised to market perform at Northland
* Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) raised to buy at Jefferies
* Kraft Heinz (KHC) raised to buy at Deutsche Bank
* Oasis Petroleum (OAS) raised to strong buy at Raymond James
* Symantec (SYMC) raised to outperform at Oppenheimer
* TPG Specialty Lending (TSLX) raised to market outperform at JMP
* U.S. Steel (X) raised to hold at Jefferies
DOWNGRADES:
* Akorn (AKRX) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank
* Apache (APA) cut to equalweight at Barclays
* Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) cut to sell at Deutsche
* Consolidated Communications (CNSL) cut to underperform at Raymond James
* Copa (CPA) cut to hold at HSBC
* FireEye (FEYE) cut to neutral at JPMorgan
* Cut to neutral at Citi
* Harman (HAR) cut to neutral at Baird
* Houghton Mifflin (HMHC) cut to marketperform at BMO
* Huntington Ingalls (HII) cut to marketperform at Wells Fargo
* Inogen (INGN) cut to hold at Stifel
* JinkoSolar (JKS) cut to neutral at Roth
* Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) cut to sell at Deutsche
* Mettler-Toledo (MTD) cut to neutral at UBS
* Neenah Paper (NP) cut to neutral at DA Davidson
* Newfield Exploration (NFX) cut to equalweight at Barclays
* Regeneron (REGN) cut to neutral at Baird
* Renesola (SOL) cut to sell at Roth Capital
* SeaWorld (SEAS) cut to neutral at Macquarie
* TripAdvisor (TRIP) cut to hold at Deutsche
* Webster Financial (WBS) cut to equalweight at Barclays
* Windstream Holdings (WIN) cut to underperform at Raymond James
INITIATIONS:
* Clovis Oncology (CLVS) rated new buy at SunTrust
* Incyte (INCY) rated new buy at SunTrust
* Symantec (SYMC) reinstated equalweight at Barclays -
Oodatust rohkem töökohti loodi, keskmise töönädala pikkus kummendiku võrra parem, keskmise tunnipalga kasv püsis 2,6% peal
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
EGLT +17.5%, (also announces that the joint meeting of the FDA voted 18 to 1 to recommend approval of ARYMO), PACB +16.1%, GSAT +14.2%, (also discusses status of talks with FCC ), AAOI +10%
ONVO +9.7%, TRXC +8.9%, KTOS +8.8%, OSIR +8.5%, ICON +7.9%, PETX +7.9%, RPTP +7.5%, UBNT +6.9%, AMRS +6.6%, MTZ +5.8%, CTRL +5.7%, PCLN +5.6%, LGF +5.3%, SYMC +5.1%
LOCO +4.7%, MGA +4.4%, KHC +4%, (increases quarterly dividend to $0.60/share from $0.575/share ), PTCT +3.8%, VVUS +3.8%, MELI +3.8%, FLT +3.4%, (also acquired Travelcard Nederland from LeasePlan; terms not disclosed), AHS +3%, FRPT +3%, SGMS +3%, ATVI +2.9%, APRI +2.8%, LNTH +2.8%, RVNC +2.5%, SSNI +2.5%, EOG +2.3%, MNST +2%, (also authorizes $250 mln share repurchase, ASYS +2%
TASR +1.9%, ECYT +1.9%, ABTL +1.8%, IVR +1.7%, IMPV +1.6%, (also Board commences review of strategic alternatives), IBP +1.5%, BMRN +1.4%, MDRX +1.3%, HMSY +1.3%, ESPR +1.2%, WY +1.1%, JUNO +1%, (announces multiple myeloma partnership with Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and Eureka Therapeutics for developing car t cell immunotherapy against multiple novel targets)
M&A News:
RAX +16.7% (following late spike/halt on potential PE interest)
RIO +2.2% (completes sale of Mount Pleasant thermal coal assets for $220.7 mln plus royalties to MACH Energy Australia Pty)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BBL +3.5%, BHP +3.4%, HL +1.8%, BTG +1.8%, GFI +1.6%, CLF +1.4%, .
Other news:
IDXG +37% (very thinly traded, announces that the NY State Department of Health has reviewed and approved ThyraMir for marketing in New York State)
VIVE +19.2% ( receives regulatory approval for the sale of the Viveve System from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in South Korea)
MRK +12.6% (on potentially reduced competition for its Keytruda drug, following BMY's failed cancer drug trial)
OSIR +8.5% ( Osiris Therapeutics announces that the manuscript from its multicenter prospective post-market clinical trial using Grafix was accepted for publication in the International Wound Journal)
AVP +2.8% (upsizes & prices an offering of $500 mln 7.875% senior secured notes due 2022 )
SAUC +2.7% (Diversified Restaurant Holdings to split into two separate, publicly-traded companies through the tax-free spinoff of its Bagger Dave's business, also reported earnings)
LDOS +2.1% (declares special cash dividend of $13.64/share in connection with IS&GS transaction)
DLTR +0.9% (Dollar Tree announces corporate restructuring related to merger integration)
RYAM +0.9% (prices 1,500,000 shares of co's 8.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock)
Analyst comments:
CLVS +1.7% (initiated with a Buy at SunTrust)
FLT +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
HDP -32.7%, (also President and Chief Operating Officer Herb Cunitz resigns), SWIR -20.2%, FEYE -16.4%, AQXP -14.7%, CPSI -13%, (also announces ceases providing guidance and new dividend policy), NOG -12.1%, TWOU -12%, OLED -10.3%, (also signs five-year License and Supplemental Material Purchase Agreement with Tianma Micro-electronics )
SHEN -9.6%, NVO -9.2%, FLR -7.9%, WTW -7.8%, AINV -7.2%, ZNGA -6.7%, INAP -6.4%, RBS -6.3%, NDLS -6.2%, CARA -5.7%, ZG -5.4%, LADR -4.4%, CERS -4%, CERS -4%, ACAD -3.4%, TCRD -3.4%, OTIC -3.1%, GST -3.1%
SYRG -2.8%, NRP -2.6%, TRUE -2.3%, MACK -2%, RATE -1.7%, FDUS -1.6%, BBG -1.4%, INGN -1.3%, WING -1.2%, ATRC -1.1%, EMKR -1.1%, FPRX -0.9%, AES -0.9%, CTSH -0.9%
Other news:
PDLI -17.5% (decides to eliminate its quarterly cash dividend)
DMRC -2.4% (announces proposed public offering of common stock)
LYG -1.4% (in sympathy with RBS earnings)
AZN -1.2% (in sympathy with NVO earnings)
SNY -1.2% (in sympathy with NVO earnings)
GSK -0.9% (in sympathy with NVO earnings)
CLX -0.8% (ticking lower; appoints CEO Benno Dorer as Chairman of the Board)
VER -0.7% (upsizes offering by 10 mln shares and prices 60 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of ~ $621 mln)
Analyst comments:
WIN -1.8% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)
OME -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich)
TRIP -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank)
TEVA -0.6% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer)
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