Börsipäev 14. oktoober
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Hirm intressimäära tõstmise ees ning oodatust nõrgemaks jäänud Hiina septembrikuu kaubandusstatistika varjutasid eile aktsiaturgude sentimenti, kuid suurematest kaotustest suutis S&P 500 siiski välja rabeleda, pääsedes vaid -0,3% langusega. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx -0,9% madalamal, kosudes päevasisesest -1,4% kaotusest.
Ühendriikide esmased töötu abiraha taotlused püsisid läinud nädalal 246 tuhandel (oodati 253 tuhat), mis on madalaim tase alates 1973.a novembrist, kuigi järgnevatel nädalatel võib see orkaanide tõttu ajutiselt ülespoole liikuda.
Aasias kauplesid aktsiaturud valdavalt kõrgemal, kui Hiina tootjahinnaindeksi kasvas septembris 0,1% võrreldes aastatagusega, mis oli esimene positiivne muutus alates 2012.a jaanuarist (oodati -0,3%, augustis -0,8%) ning muudab ettevõtete kasumite väljavaate positiivsemaks. Tarbijahinnaindeksi kasv kiirenes septembris 1,3% pealt 1,9%le (oodati 1,6%), olles mõjutatud toidu kallinemisest, mis ulatus eelmisel kuul 2,7%ni (augustis 1,5%).
Tähelepanu keskmes on täna USA jaemüük, mis peaks autosid ja kütust arvestamata näitama kahekuulise languse järel väikest taastumist ja sellega hoidma jõus FEDi intressimäära tõstmise plaani. Janet Yelleni mõtteid sel teemal kuuleme õhtupoolikul, kui ta esineb Bostoni FEDi konverentsil. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused täna Citi, JPMorgan ja Wells Fargo.
10.00 Hispaania inflatsioon (septembri lõplik)
11.30 Itaalia valitsuse võlakoorem (august)
15.30 USA jaemüük (september)
15.30 FEDi Rosengren esineb
15.30 USA tootjahinnaindeks (september)
17.00 USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete naftapuurtornide arv (14. oktoober)
20.30 FEDi Janet Yellen esineb -
ELi uute autode registreerimise kasv aeglustus septembris 7,2%le (augustis 10,0%). millele avaldas mõju madalam kasv Suurbritannias.
• VW Group sales rise 5.6% y/y; ytd up 3%
• PSA Group sales drop 5.8% y/y; ytd up 2.1%
• Renault Group sales rise 18.7% y/y; ytd up 12.9%
• Opel Group sales rise 3.8% y/y; ytd up 6.5%
• Ford sales drop 0.7% y/y; ytd up 4.3%
• FCA Group sales rise 14.2% y/y; ytd up 15.3%
• BMW Group sales rise 13% y/y; ytd up 12.2%
• Daimler sales rise 17.9% y/y; ytd up 14.2%
• Toyota Group sales rise 8.4% y/y; ytd up 8.1%
• Nissan sales drop 3.2% y/y; ytd down 2% -
Morgan Stanley nendib, et Euroopas on kasumirida kasvule lähedal
*After five years of earnings declines, 3Q could be final quarter of negative EPS growth in Europe, also mark end of the region’s earnings bear market, Morgan Stanley equity strategists including Matthew Garman and Graham Secker write in note.
* Improving global growth picture driven by EM, commodity prices bottoming out set to help; also scope for 3Q results to beat estimates
* Sees potential for forecast-beating results in beverages, oil services, asset managers, internet, IT services, software
* Sees potential for lower-than-expected results from leisure, market infrastructure, med tech, cap goods, transport, telecoms
* Positive view into earnings for Evonik, Heineken, Kering, LafargeHolcim, Schneider, SSE, Technip, Telecom Italia, Veolia
* Negative view into earnings for IHG, Industries Qatar, Luxottica, Just Eat
* Adds caveat that recent sharp rotation into cyclicals suggests market now more vulnerable to disappointment
Ka JPM ütleb, et revideerimised on muutunud positiivseks
* Sell-side analysts have started to upgrade their profit estimates for Europe and U.S., with Europe experiencing the biggest net upgrades since 4Q 2010, JPMorgan quant strategists including Khuram Chaudhry and Viquar Shaikh write in note.
* They say an EPS upgrade trend is often the best environment for high risk stocks; many investors still defensively positioned and underweight European equities
* EPS upgrades combined with improving EPS revisions usually favors cyclicals sectors such as technology, industrials, materials, financials, discretionary, rather than defensives like health care, staples, utilities
* U.K. leading the pace of upgrades; Switzerland, Spain, Germany also experiencing net EPS upgrades -
JPMorgan Chase prelim Q3 $1.58 vs $1.39 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; GAAP revs $24.7 bln vs $23.69 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
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septembri istungil rahapoliitilises vaates kannapöörde teinud Eric Rosengren hoiatab, et intressimäära võidakse tõsta turu ootustest kiiremini
ROSENGREN: MY VIEWS HAVEN'T CHANGED; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE
ROSENGREN: U.S. IS VERY CLOSE TO FULL EMPLOYMENT
ROSENGREN: UNEMPLOYMENT LIKELY TO BE 4.5% BY END-2017
ROSENGREN: I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
ROSENGREN: I EXPECT TO SEE WAGE GROWTH
ROSENGREN: WE MAY HAVE TO RAISE RATES FASTER THAN MKT FORE CASTS
ROSENGREN: EACH OF OUR MEETINGS OUGHT TO BE LIVE
ROSENGREN: MKT PRICING ON DEC. RATE HIKE SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT -
Wells Fargo prelim Q3 $1.03 vs $1.01 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $22.3 bln vs $22.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Citigroup prelim Q3 $1.24 vs $1.16 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $17.8 bln vs $17.32 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
Autosid ja kütust arvestamata kasvas USA jaemüük septembris ootuspärased 0,3% võrreldes augustiga, mille -0,1% muutus revideeriti 0,0% peale.
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Aastatagusega tähendas see jaemüügi 2,5% kasvu (kui välja jätta hooajaline ja volatiilne kaup)
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
REED +12.9%, (thinly traded), ENZ +6.5%, FHN +5%, IPCI +3.4%, C +2.1%
M&A news: FCX +0.9% (to sell its onshore California oil and gas properties to Sentinel Peak Resources California LLC for $742 mln)
Select financial related names showing strength: BCS +2.9%, SAN +2.3%, BBVA +2.1%, ING +1.9%, GS +1.6%, BAC +1.6%, MS +1.5%, HSBC +1.1%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +2%, SBGL +1.7%, VALE +1.6%, RIO +1.1%, BBL +1.1%, AA +0.8%, BHP +0.6%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +4%, TOT +1.6%, RDS.A +1.5%, OAS +1%, WLL +0.9%
Other news:
LEI +6% (files for 5 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
AEZS +4.9% (continued strength)
AMD +4.9% (announces collaboration with Alibaba Group (BABA))
TEAR +4.8% (TearLab announces co-promotion agreement with PRN Physician Recommended Nutriceuticals; terms not disclosed)
CTRV +3.7% (following 25% move higher)
ICPT +3.4% (confirms positive CHMP opinion for Ocaliva for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis in the EU)
ARIA +2.5% (favorable commentary on Thursday's Mad Money)
DB +2.2% (considering eliminating thousands of additional jobs, according to Reuters)
HSY +2% (confirms CEO John P. Bilbrey to retire on July 1; reaffirms outlook for FY16)
UA +1.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray )
HON +1.9% (releases presentation slides in conjunction with CEO David M. Cote's appearance on Jim Cramer's Mad Money program tonight)
Analyst comments:
UA +1.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray)
DPZ +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill)
JD +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at Stifel)
SYK +0.8% (initiated with Buy ratings at SunTrust)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
SMSI -20.8%, (sees Q3 revs of $6.5 mln, prior guidance was for $7.9-8.4 mln, vs $8.20 mln two analyst estimate)
HIVE -20.6%, (guides Q3 revenues below expectations; Sees EPS at low end of prior guidance)
NHTC -14.3%, (Natural Health Trends sees Q3 revenue down 12% to $70.7 mln )
ONCS -4%, INFY -3.9%, SERV -2.8%, DFRG -2.3%
HPQ -1.7%, (guides FY17 adj. EPS in-line; raises dividend 7%; adds $3 bln to buyback; announces restructuring with 3-4K expected layoffs)
SKY -0.7%
M&A news:
SYT -1.3% (Bloomberg report that China may look to merge ChemChina with Sinochem Group; Syngenta agreed to be acquired by ChemChina in February for ~$43 bln)
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AU -1.4%, KGC -1.3%, ABX -1.3%, GDX -1.3%, NEM -1.3%
Other news:
BIOC -21.6% (prices a 9.1 mln share underwritten public offering of common stock & warrants)
OPTT -20.9% (filed a form EFFECT (Notice of Effectiveness for a Form S-1))
LMRK -7.3% (announces a 3 mln common unit underwritten public offering representing limited partner interests)
EGLT -5.6% (Egalet notified that FDA will not meet October 14 PDUFA goal data for ARYMO ER; No additional scientific information or data requested by FDA)
WMIH -2.8% ( Appaloosa LP lowers passive stake to 3.7%)
RSPP -2.5% (upsizes offering by 2 mln shares; prices 22 mln shares of its common stock at $39.75 per share)
DPRX -1.4% (after closing near lows)
Analyst comments:
BETR -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
SEDG -2.7% (initiated with a Sell at Axiom Capital)
BLUE -2.1% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald)
ROLL -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities)
Briefing.com -
USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks oodatust madalam
US Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Oct: 87.9 (est 91.9; prev 91.2) -
Pikaajaliste inflatsiooniootuste uus põhi
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Yellen räägin dollari kukkuma. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ga3maNZ0x0w
