Börsipäev 15. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Kui futuuride järgi olid investorid valmis jätkama USA aktsiaturul rallit, siis avanemise hetkeks entusiasm enam nõnda silmapaistev polnud ning sessioon möödus indeksite jaoks suuresti külgsuunas liikudes (S&P 500 sulgus praktiliselt ilma muutuseta). Investorid on aga jätkuvalt positsioneerimas ennast Trumpi plaanide järgi, mida ilmestab seik, et aktsiaturul püsivad tõusjate nimekirja eesotsas finants- ja tööstussektor ning USA valitsuse 10a võlakirja tulusus on testimas 2,21% juures käesoleva aasta kõrgeimaid tasemeid (1,358% juulis). Stoxx 600 indeksi jaoks päädis päev 0,2% plussis, olles sessiooni alguses roninud 1,3% kõrgemale.
Kõrgemate intressimäärade taga on ootus, et täistööhõive lähedale jõudnud majanduses viib täiendav fiskaalne stiimul kõrgemate palkade ning kiirema inflatsioonini. Eile avaldatud NY FEDi küsitluse kohaselt püsisid oktoobris inflatsiooni ootused võrdlemisi stabiilsena, kui 1a hinnatõusu ootus kerkis küsitluse ajaloo madalaimalt tasemelt 2,5% pealt 2,59%le ning kolme aasta ootus taandus 2,62% pealt 2,58%le, jäädes rekordmadala taseme lähedale.
Eesti aja järgi öösel esinenud Richmond FEDi presidendi Jeffrey Lackeri (hääletav liige 2018.a) sõnul on presidendivalimised liigutanud turu ootused fiskaalpoliitikale, kuigi selles osas on veel palju lahtiseid otsasid. Siiski võiks stimuleerivama fiskaalpoliitika väljavaade eeldada tema arvates ka kõrgeimaid intressimäärasid. Dallas FEDi president Robert Kaplan (2017.a hääletav liige) ütles Texases esinedes, et keskpank võiks lähitulevikus rahapoliitikat karmistada aga seda tuleks teha ettevaatlikult ja kannatlikult.
Tänane majandusuudiste kalender saab olema üsna rikkalik. Märkimist väärivad eelkõige Saksamaa kolmanda kvartali SKP ning sealsete investorite ja analüütikute novembrikuu kindlustunde indeksid. Ühendriikides selgub oktoobrikuu jaemüük ja novembri esimene regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus.
09.00 Saksamaa kolmanda kvartali SKP
09.00 Soome SKP indikaator (september)
09.00 Norra kolmanda kvartali SKP
09.45 Prantsusmaa inflatsioon (oktoobri lõplik)
10.00 Hispaania inflatsioon (oktoobri lõplik)
11.00 Itaalia kolmanda kvartali SKP
11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (oktoober)
12.00 Saksamaa finantsekspertide kindlustunde indeksid (november)
12.00 Eurotsooni kolmanda kvartali revideeritud SKP
15.00 FEDi Rosengren esineb
15.30 USA NY FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (november)
15.30 USA jaemüük (oktoober)
16.05 FEDi Daniel Tarullo esineb
20.30 FEDi Fischer esineb
20.30 FEDi Robert Kaplan esineb -
Saksamaa majanduse kvartaalne kasv aeglustus kolmandas kvartalis 0,2%le (Q2 0,4%) ning aasta baasil 1,7%le (Q2 1,8%), mis jäid mõlemal tasandil oodatust veidi tagasihoidlikumaks (QoQ prog 0,3% ja YoY prog 1,8%)
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Soome majandus kasvas septembris 1,5% võrreldes mullu sama ajaga ning ka augusti muutus revideeriti positiivsemaks (-0,1% asemel 1,5%).
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Kokkuvõtted mõnede hedge fondide positsioonidest kolmanda kvartali lõpus:
Kynikos Associates (Jim Chanos) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: AMCX (~0.06 mln shares), LOW (~0.05 mln)
Increased positions in: STRZA (to ~0.17 mln shares from ~0.15 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: ENR (to ~0.07 mln shares from ~0.13 mln shares), CCK (to ~0.08 mln from ~0.13 mln)
Closed positions in: CYNO (from ~0.07 mln shares), CHKP (from ~0.05 mln)
Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: CMG (~0.55 mln shares--previously disclosed active stake)
Maintained positions in: PAH (~42.74 mln shares), QSR (~39.15 mln shares), NOMD (~33.33 mln shares), MDLZ (~22.94 mln shares), VRX (~21.59 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: ZTS (to ~2.72 mln shares from ~21.17 mln shares--as previously disclosed), APD (to ~4.03 mln from ~7.6 mln)
Closed positions in: CP (from ~9.84 mln shares - previously disclosed)
Paulson & Co (John Paulson) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: HPE (~5.96 mln shares), EBAY (~0.63 mln), STE (~0.31 mln), MAR (~0.17 mln), HCA (~0.16 mln), CVS (~0.12 mln), CKEC (~0.12 mln), TLND (~0.1 mln), HUM (~0.08 mln), MJN (~0.08 mln)
Increased positions in: LOXO (to ~0.74 mln shares from ~0.25 mln shares), BIIB (to ~0.31 mln from ~0.12 mln), BSX (to ~0.41 mln from ~0.09 mln), ARDM (to ~0.15 mln from ~0.07 mln), BCRX (to ~0.36 mln from ~0.26 mln)
Maintained positions in: AIG (~9.06 mln shares), AKRX (~8.97 mln)
Decreased positions in: CIE (to ~31.22 mln shares from ~39.1 mln shares), STAY (to ~37.68 mln from ~42.66 mln), GRFS (to ~2.48 mln from ~7.35 mln), SGYP (to ~24.23 mln from ~27.76 mln--as previously disclosed), VNDA (to ~2.18 mln from ~3.86 mln)....
Trimmed positions in MYL (to ~21.81 mln from ~22.03 mln), VRX (to ~18.87 mln from ~19.07 mln), TEVA (to ~16.08 mln from ~16.77 mln)
Closed positions in: BEAV (from ~0.98 mln shares), RAD (from ~0.58 mln), Q (from ~0.16 mln), CI (from ~0.06 mln), KTWO (from ~0.05 mln)
Soros Fund Management (George Soros) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: WMB (~3.17 mln shares), EEM (~2.45 mln), HPE (~1.3 mln), CRC (~1.24 mln), EXTR (~1.07 mln)
Increased positions in: SUPV (to ~1.92 mln shares from ~1.37 mln shares), MODN (to ~2.7 mln from ~2.14 mln), SREV (to ~0.63 mln from ~0.05 mln), ALLT (to ~2.4 mln from ~1.39 mln--as previously disclosed), VIAV (to ~1.52 mln from ~0.37 mln) ABX (to ~2.85 mln from ~1.07 mln),
Maintained positions in: AGRO (~11.92 mln shares), LBRDK (~8.9 mln shares), CACQ (~6.51 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: EXAR (to ~1.37 mln shares from ~2.84 mln shares), EBAY (to ~0.82 mln from ~1.74 mln), GNK (to ~0.07 mln from ~0.75 mln), DISH (to ~0.1 mln from ~0.73 mln), ZTS (to ~0.83 mln from ~1.26 mln)
Closed positions in: GLPI (from ~1.8 mln shares), ESNT (from ~1.48 mln), IMOS (from ~1.37 mln), CIT (from ~1.19 mln), JD (from ~0.85 mln)
Trian Fund Management (Nelson Peltz) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
Maintained positions in: MDLZ (~48.03 mln shares), SYY (~43.97 mln shares), WEN (~40.79 mln shares), BK (~32.37 mln shares, slightly more than 32.22 mln shares prior quarter--previously disclosed), PNR (~14.34 mln shares)
Decreased positions in:GE (to ~72.62 mln shares from ~74.77 mln shares), DD (to ~17.45 mln from ~19.24 mln)
Appaloosa (David Tepper) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: BAC (~4.14 mln shares), CFG (~2.58 mln), YHOO (~1.8 mln), FB (~1.48 mln), TPX (~1.19 mln), QCOM (~0.9 mln), AAPL (~0.8 mln), PNC (~0.61 mln), DAL (~0.48 mln)
Increased positions in: GT (to ~0.86 mln shares from ~0.71 mln shares), KMI (to ~3.65 mln from ~1.5 mln)
Maintained positions in: ETP (~11.62 mln shares), WPZ (~9.27 mln shares), TERP (~8.71 mln shares), HUN (~6.35 mln shares), ABY (~6.01 mln shares), ALL (~3.12 mln shares), AGN (~1.22 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: WMIH (to ~7.8 mln shares from ~16.39 mln shares), LUV (to ~0.58 mln from ~3.48 mln), SYF (to ~4.16 mln from ~6.07 mln), NXPI (to ~0.03 mln from ~1.4 mln), GM (to ~0.09 mln from ~1.39 mln), OC (to ~2.95 mln from ~3.34 mln), WDC (to ~1.15 mln from ~1.45 mln), MHK (to ~0.58 mln from ~0.76 mln), GOOG (to ~0.47 mln from ~0.63 mln)
Closed positions in: CYH (from ~6.27 mln shares), FOXA (from ~3.28 mln), FOX (from ~1.08 mln), TGI (from ~1 mln), QHC (from ~0.77 mln), IR (from ~0.47 mln), PPG (from ~0.22 mln)
Berkshire Hathaway Inc (Warren Buffett) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: AAL (~21.77 mln shares), DAL (~6.33 mln), UAL (~4.53 mln)
Maintained positions in: WFC (~479.7 mln shares-recently affirmed), KO (~400 mln shares), KHC (~325.63 mln shares), AXP (~151.61 mln shares), USB (~85.06 mln shares), IBM (~81.23 mln shares), PSX (~80.69 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: WMT (to ~12.97 mln shares from ~40.23 mln shares), KMI (to ~20 mln from ~26.53 mln), LMCK (to ~3.19 mln from ~5 mln), LMCA (to ~1.3 mln from ~2.5 mln)
Closed positions in: SU (from ~22.28 mln shares), MEG (from ~3.47 mln)
Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: X (~3.09 mln shares), GEO (~0.29 mln)
Increased positions in: CPN (to ~11.24 mln shares from ~5.66 mln shares), AER (to ~12.77 mln from ~11.4 mln--previously disclosed), MYL (to ~6.4 mln from ~4.95 mln), RAD (to ~13.44 mln from ~10.33 mln)
Maintained positions in: GRBK (~24.12 mln shares), GM (~17 mln shares), CC (~16.37 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: CNX (to ~17.87 mln shares from ~22 mln shares), TPH (to ~2.07 mln from ~4.5 mln), KORS (to ~3.07 mln from ~4.84 mln), AAPL (to ~5.19 mln from ~6.85 mln-previously disclosed), TTWO (to ~1.38 mln from ~2.73 mln), ACM (to ~2 mln from ~3.07 mln), TWX (to ~3.86 mln from ~4.72 mln), DSW (to ~3.57 mln from ~4.25 mln), YELP (to ~2.3 mln from ~2.9 mln)
Closed positions in: FOXA (from ~4.77 mln shares), HTZ (from ~3.3 mln), CYH (from ~2.42 mln), ABC (from ~0.54 mln), PRGO (from ~0.53 mln), LILAK (from ~0.41 mln), HUM (from ~0.38 mln)
Carl Icahn discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: HTZ (~12.94 mln shares)
Increased positions in: HLF (to ~19.61 mln shares from ~17 mln shares)
Maintained positions in: FDML (~138.59 mln shares), IEP (~127.07 mln shares), FCX (~104 mln shares), XRX (~99.03 mln shares), CVI (~71.2 mln shares), AIG (~45.64 mln shares), PYPL (~33.9 mln shares), LNG (~32.68 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: AGN (to ~0.43 mln shares from ~3.4 mln shares)
Closed positions in: CHK (from ~73.05 mln shares), RIG (from ~21.48 mln)
Omega Advisors (Leon Cooperman) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
New positions in: P (~2.72 mln shares), CLF (~1.14 mln), WMB (~1.06 mln), HES (~0.99 mln), TIME (~0.9 mln), SSNC (~0.7 mln)
Increased positions in: GPOR (to ~0.3 mln shares from ~0.21 mln shares), MDCA (to ~0.19 mln from ~0.05 mln), SHPG (to ~0.36 mln from ~0.2 mln), NBR (to ~1.65 mln from ~1.49 mln), EPD (to ~0.79 mln from ~0.58 mln) BERY (to ~0.57 mln from ~0.3 mln), TCRD (to ~0.34 mln from ~0.03 mln)
Maintained positions in: HRG (~9.61 mln shares), TRCO (~3.47 mln shares), OMF (~3.11 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: FDC (to ~12.95 mln shares from ~15.65 mln shares), CIM (to ~2.94 mln from ~5.6 mln), NAVI (to ~11.32 mln from ~13.8 mln), NRZ (to ~2.94 mln from ~5.35 mln), SNR (to ~3.07 mln from ~4.26 mln), ETFC (to ~2.01 mln from ~3.15 mln), MGM (to ~2.25 mln from ~2.93 mln), AER (to ~4.06 mln from ~4.62 mln)
Closed positions in: SLW (from ~1.18 mln), TRGP (from ~1.12 mln), C (from ~0.83 mln), FCB (from ~0.53 mln), SWN (from ~0.5 mln), UNH (from ~0.49 mln), TERP (from ~0.38 mln). -
Itaalia majandus kasvas kolmandas kvartalis QoQ 0,3% (oodati 0,2%) ning mullusega võrreldes 0,9% (progn 0,8%)
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langevast naelast hoolimata surve Suurbritannia inflatsioonile nõrgenes oktoobris, kui alusinflatsioon aeglustus 0,3pp võrra 1,2%le prognoositud 1,4% asemel
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Saksamaa investorid ja analüütikud muutusid majanduse jooksvat seisu hinnates pisut pessimistlikumaks, kui novembris alanes indeks 0,7 punkti võrra 58,8 punktile (oodati 61,6) aga järgmise kuue kuu väljavaate osas ollakse positiivsemad (13,8 vs 6,2 oktoobris ning oodatud 8,1 punkti).
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Tundub, et USA tarbimise jahtumine suvekuudel oli siiski ajutine, kuna kütust ja toitu arvestamata kasva jaemüük oktoobris 0,6% MoM (oodati 0,3%) ning lisaks revideeriti septembrikuu 0,3% kuine kasv 0,5%liseks.
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NY FEDi küsitluse kohaselt paranes osariigi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsus novembris -6,8 punkti pealt 1,5 punktile, rohkem kui oodatud -2,5 punkti. Uute tellimuste indeks kerkis -5,6 punktilt 3,1 punktile, tööhõive oli aga nõrgem (-10,9 punkti vs -4,7 punkti oktoobris)
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Eric Rosengreni sõnul ei hääletanud ta eelmisel korral FOMC otsusele vastu, kuna tekst viitas tugevalt võimaluse tõsta intressimäära detsembris ning see sobis tema nägemusega
* “Absent significant negative economic news over the next month, the market’s assessment of the likelihood of tightening in December seems plausible”
* “I would much prefer that tightening be gradual, and that policymakers try to avoid circumstances in which we need to tighten more quickly. My concern is that more rapid tightening, were it necessary, could risk disrupting the recovery” -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: XGTI +23.2%, AAP +14.4%, PIR +11%, (Sept-October comps up low single digits, early Nov impacted by election but expects improvement), JD +7.5%, KGJI +6.8%, ALRM +5%, (also names Steve Valenzuela as new CFO effective November 15 ), GILT +4.7%, PAAS +4.6%, PTN +4.5%, TSEM +4.1%, TDW +2.6%, NOAH +2.5%, NWL +2.2%, (Newell Brands reaffirms FY16 & FY17 guidance ahead of its presentation at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference), TJX +2.2%, PAM +1.2%, HD +0.9%, SBH +0.8%, DBD +0.6%, .
M&A news: EQY +14.8% (Equity One and Regency Centers Corporation confirm merger in $15.6 bln transaction), GZT +6.2% (confirms that its US subsidiary Equity One (EQY) will merge with Regency Centers (REG)), LOCK +4.6% (Symantec said to also be considering a potential acquisition of LifeLock, according to Bloomberg)
Select financial related names showing strength: TOPS +23.8%, ESEA +21.9%, SALT +4.7%, EGLE +4.3%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: PWE +5.7%, CHK +4.4%, WLL +3.8%, PBR +3.1%, NE +2.5%, SDRL +2.3%
Other news: RPRX +17% (reports topline results for both its pooled oral and vaginal delivery Phase 2 studies in the treatment of uterine fibroids; primary endpoint of induction of amenorrhea met for both pooled oral and vaginal delivery compared to placebo ), EQY +14.8% (confirms that its US subsidiary Equity One (EQY) will merge with Regency Centers (REG)), MRNS +5.9% (presents preclinical data showing that the combination of its CNS-selective GABAA), AAL +4.4% (Berkshire Hathaway Inc / Warren Buffett discloses new stake), NTES +3.9% (approves new share repurchase program of up to $1.0 bln of ADS for a period not to exceed 12 months ), FIT +3.8% (still checking), GLNG +3.6% (commences 5.7 mln common stock offering ), PTLA +3.6% (announces results from three substudies of the pivotal Phase 3 APEX Study of betrixaban at the AHA Scientific Sessions), DAL +3.6% (Berkshire Hathaway Inc / Warren Buffett discloses new stake), LUV +3.2% (Buffett's Berkshire also buys stake in Southwest, according to CNBC), UAL +2.9% (Berkshire Hathaway Inc / Warren Buffett discloses new stake), CAFD +2.2% (enters into agreement to acquire 34 percent stake in 300-mw stateline solar project for $329.5 million), AMRN +2.1% (presents results for Vascepa indicating reductions potentially atherogenic lipid and inflammatory parameters in statin-treated women with persistent high triglycerides ), GEO +2% (Greenlight new stake), HCA +1.5% ( authorizes $2 bln share repurchase program )
Analyst comments: FTNT +2.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley ), NWL +2.2% (resumed with a Outperform at Wells Fargo), CVX +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Outperform at CLSA)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BETR -19.1%, (also files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering and 45,232,632 share common stock for resale by selling stockholders ), SSYS -8%, GEVO -7.4%, ZOES -5.4%, AIMT -5.4%, DKS -5.3%, CLIR -4.5%, BZH -4.2%, HIL -3.8%, GLOB -3.4%, TEVA -2.7%, SYNC -1.8%, (also Synacor files shelf registration statement under which it may from time to time issue common stock up to an aggregate amount of $40 mln ), MBLY -1.3%, HOLI -1.2%, MESO -0.9%, NSPR -0.8%, ARMK -0.7%, LPTH -0.6%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RIO -5.5%, BBL -5.2%, BHP -4.5%, VALE -3.6%, CLF -3.3%, FCX -2.6%, X -2.4%, MT -2.3%, HMY -2.2%, AA -1.9%
Other news: SYN -28.7% (commences an underwritten public offering of shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase shares of its common stock), TSRO -10.1% (commences 1.75 mln common stock offering), NOK -5.6% (following investor day), ANGO -4.7% (prices 2.5 mln shares of common stock at $16.00/share), CTRE -3.5% (prices offering 5.5 mln shares common stock at $13.35 per share), STAY -3.1% (prices secondary offering 12,750,000 paired shares by selling shareholders for expected gross proceeds of $189 mln), TTMI -2.8% (TTM Tech's largest shareholder commences secondary offering of 12,000,000 shares of its common stock ), FRC -2.6% (commences 3 mln common stock offering)
Analyst comments: HTZ -0.9% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley ), BAC -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim), WFC -1.6% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim), FRAN -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at FBR & Co), FLOW -4.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), VEDL -7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)
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